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HUMAN RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT REVIEW
2003
EDUCATION, EMPLOYMENT AND SKILLS IN SOUTH AFRICA
HUMAN SCIENCES RESEARCH COUNCIL
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© 2003 Human Sciences Research Council
Compiled by the Research Programme on Human Resources Development, Human Sciences Research Council
General Editors: Andre Kraak and Helene Perold
Published by HSRC Press
Private Bag X9182, Cape Town, 8000, South Africa
www.hsrcpublishers.ac.za
Published in the United States of America by
Michigan State University Press
East Lansing, Michigan 48823-5202
Distributed in Africa by Blue Weaver Marketing and Distribution,
PO Box 30370, Tokai, Cape Town, 7966, South Africa.
Tel: +27 +21-701-4477
Fax: +27 +21-701-7302
e-mail: booksales@hsrc.ac.za
First published 2003
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic,
mechanical, or other means, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system,
without permission in writing from the publishers.
ISBN 0-7969-2049-4
Cover and text design and layout by Manik Design, Johannesburg, South Africa
manikn@mweb.co.za
Print management by comPress, Cape Town, South Africa
www.compress.co.za
Printed by Paarl Print
Printed in the Republic of South Africa
Recommended citation:
Human Sciences Research Council (2003) Human Resources Development Review 2003: Education, Employment
and Skills in South Africa, Cape Town: HSRC Press and East Lansing: Michigan State University Press
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CONTENTS
Preface v
Acknowledgements ix
Glossary xi
List of tables and figures xiv
Acronyms and abbreviations xxix
INTRODUCTION
Chapter
1 HRD and Joined-Up Policy 2
Andre Kraak
SECTION ONE
CONTEXT
2 Overview of the South African Economy 32
Anna McCord
3 Overview of Industrial Policy 64
Miriam Altman and Marina Mayer
4 The Skills Requirements of Specific Economic Sectors 86
Pundy Pillay
5 Employment and Labour Market Trends 112
Anna McCord and Haroon Bhorat
6 The Informal Economy 142
Richard Devey, Caroline Skinner and Imraan Valodia
7 The Social and Human Development Context 164
Debbie Budlender
8 The Impact of HIV/AIDS 186
Jocelyn Vass
9 Science Policy Indicators 208
Nelius Boshoff and Johann Mouton
10 Skills Migration 234
Tracy Bailey
11 International Benchmarks 256
Debbie Budlender
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SECTION TWO SUPPLY
12 Public Expenditure on Education 280
Russell Wildeman
13 Public Schooling 302
Helen Perry and Fabian Arends
14 Public Further Education and Training Colleges 326
Glen Fisher, Ros Jaff, Lesley Powell and Graham Hall
15 Public Higher Education 352
George Subotzky
16 Independent Schooling 380
Jacques L du Toit
17 Private Further Education and Training 396
Salim Akoojee
18 Private Higher Education and Training 416
George Subotzky
19 Enterprise Training 432
Azeem Badroodien
SECTION THREE
SCARCE SKILLS
20 Forecasting the Demand for Scarce Skills, 2001-2006 458
Ingrid Woolard, Philip Kneebone and Deborah Lee
21 Educators 476
Luis Crouch and Helen Perry
22 Academics 500
Charlton Koen
23 Medical Practitioners and Nurses 522
Elsje Hall and Johan Erasmus
24 Engineers and Technicians 554
Grové Steyn and Reza C Daniels
25 Biotechnologists 584
David R Walwyn
26 Managers 610
Frank M Horwitz and Angus Bowmaker-Falconer
27 ICT and Associated Professionals 634
Percy Moleke, Andrew Paterson and Joan Roodt
28 HRD and the Skills Crisis 660
Andre Kraak
Index 688
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PREFACE
This Review is the outcome of a flagship project of the Research Programme on Human Resources
Development (HRD) at the Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC), and was funded by the
Department of Science and Technology (DST). The programmes core focus is to analyse the pathways
of learners from the schooling system into further and higher education and the world of work. More
specifically, the programme:
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conducts research on the supply side that examines the provision of public and private post-
school education and training, particularly in the further and higher education bands;
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conducts research on the demand side that examines the characteristics of those skills that are in
demand, those in short supply, and those that will be needed in the future;
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conducts research on the states new science and industrial policies and what the implications of
new knowledge and innovation requirements will be for the education and training system; and
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conducts theoretical research aimed at developing an appropriate conceptual framework for analysing
human resources.
The research programme on HRD
The Research Programme on HRD was established in May 2001 as a result of two external
developments. Firstly, in October 2000, Cabinet mandated the HSRC to undertake research for
government in the field of HRD. Government also appointed the HSRC to a joint Education and
Labour Task Team commissioned to draw up an HRD Strategy for the country. The policy document,
entitled An HRD Strategy for South Africa: A Nation at Work for a Better Life for All, was publicly
launched in April 2001. The HSRC Research Programme on HRD seeks to support this strategy
through the provision of strategic research and the dissemination of information.
The second development occurred in December 2000. The Department of Science and Technology
awarded the HSRC a significant three-year research grant, ring-fenced specifically for HRD-related
research work.
The flagship project
This project has three components. The first concerns the development of a comprehensive web-
based, cross-sectoral data warehouse. This infrastructure is oriented largely towards the provision of
improved information and analysis to support government decision-making in the arena of HRD (see
http://hrdwarehouse.hsrc.ac.za). The second is a biennial human resources development review that
provides comprehensive analyses of key education and training, labour-market and macro-economic
indicators. Thirdly, the project produces an interpretive overview (in the format of a monograph) of
the key trends in HRD in the post-apartheid period (see Kraak 2004).
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This Review is the first in a
series of biennial human resources development overviews to be published by the HSRC.
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Conception of HRD
The key thesis underlying the project is that HRD is a cross-sectoral policy issue that is shaped by,
and impacts on, a multitude of government policy domains such as education and training, the
labour market, and macroeconomic, industrial and foreign trade policies. When combined or joined
up in an interlocking and self-reinforcing way, the basket of government policies yields the appropriate
human and technological capability necessary for future national economic success. Human resources
development is thus the glue that helps to develop and sustain successful economic systems.
This approach is underpinned by the necessity for education reforms to interlock and join up with
macroeconomic, industrial and labour market reforms so that their combined impact has a better
chance of meeting the new conditions for global competitiveness the attainment of high-quality
manufacture through a highly skilled and highly productive workforce. This view of HRD policy and
planning sees educational reform as constituting one component of a necessarily larger set of socio-
economic reforms. It posits the view that the attainment of successful reform in one institutional
sphere (such as education) is conditional on parallel changes occurring in other institutional spheres
(for example, in the macroeconomic, labour market and work organisation environments).
Effective HRD planning, particularly the co-ordination of all its cross-sectoral dynamics, is a key
condition for economic success. This central proposition is asserted throughout the Review and is
supported by four key assumptions:
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The increased primacy of education and training: One of the central implications of globalisation
is the increased importance of education and training, particularly given the demands for higher
levels of multi-functional skill competencies distributed across the entire workforce. Improved
education and training is a critical pre-requisite for successful participation in the rapidly globalising
knowledge economy.
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The success of co-ordinated market economies: There is now sufficient evidence in the international
literature that, contrary to neo-liberal economic orthodoxy, co-ordinated market economies (in which
the state plays a critical role in regulating economic development) are more successful in the age of
globalisation than free market economies. Effective human resources development policies are a key
requirement of co-ordinated market economies. This is because a countrys full HRD requirements
are rarely met by the market alone, but rather through a combination of market forces and deliberate
planning and co-ordination by the state over the medium to long term.
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The importance of cross-sectoral policy co-ordination: Co-ordinated market economies are
premised on the development and implementation of cross-sectoral rather than mono-sectoral
policy instruments. Human resources development policies are intrinsically cross-sectoral.
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The importance of data and information for HRD planning: The requirement of cross-sectoral
joined-up policy co-ordination and implementation makes extremely challenging and resource-
intensive demands on government. A key condition for its success is the availability of comprehensive
management information systems across a wide array of socio-economic issues. These enable
government-planners to respond timeously to complex and often dramatic social changes.
For example, substantive shifts are likely to occur in the structure of the economy and its
sectoral characteristics over the next five to ten years. New growth areas will be triggered by
greater export activity, growth in small, medium and micro enterprises (SMMEs) of both the
technological and survivalist kinds, spatial development initiatives, and economic sectoral
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clustering. Employment patterns will shift away from declining sectors towards these new growth
points. The occupational structure will change as new skill requirements arise at both the high-
and low-skill ends of the spectrum.
Enormous pressure will be exerted on further and higher education institutions during this period to
respond to these new skill demands. Planners in government will need to measure the cross-sectoral
impact of all these shifts. It is here that the development of a cross-sectoral management information
system will be of greatest value a multifaceted data warehouse that combines information on both
the demand and supply sides in order to highlight and measure the extent to which governments
industrial and employment objectives have been met. Such a multifaceted data warehouse will also
indicate whether equivalent changes have occurred on the supply side that is, whether education
and training institutions have responded to changes in the economy and labour market.
It is the governments role to co-ordinate the key interlocking cross-sectoral policies and plan a
national HRD strategy. However, government does not possess the necessary management information
capability to develop and carry out this planning and co-ordination on its own. The aim of the HSRCs
biennial HRD review and data warehouse project, then, is to assist government in acquiring these
critical HRD policy requirements. Through this Review and the Data Warehouse, the innovative
contribution of the HSRC and its research partners thus resides in:
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developing a multi-faceted, cross-sectoral data warehouse which provides easy access to a
comprehensive set of data on the demand and supply sides of the HRD equation;
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combining databases that are currently maintained separately specifically those describing
education and training, and labour-market and employment conditions;
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conducting new qualitative and theoretical research that interrogates the quantitative data,
yielding a richer reading of HRD conditions at the macro, meso and micro levels;
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doing secondary analyses of accumulated cross-sectoral data. These interpretative analyses take
the traditional academic format of chapters in biennial HRD reviews and other academic papers
made available in the Data Warehouse;
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disseminating HRD information in simple, easy-to-use formats through easy and free access to the
Data Warehouse website, and through the biennial production and dissemination of the HRD reviews.
There is no duplication between the production of existing government databases and the work of the
HSRC. The role of the HSRC and its research partners is to add value to these data sources by
improving linkages and comparisons across government databases and transforming this information
into analytical, strategic and predictive analyses. In so doing, the aim is to support better HRD
planning in South Africa in the medium to long term.
An evidence-led overview
The HSRCs HRD Review 2003 and Data Warehouse is primarily an evidence-led quantitative project
aimed at filling the information gap that has plagued government HRD planning since 1994. Because
of the difficulties associated with working with provisional data sets that have not yet been through
the necessary scientific validation and comprehensive quality control processes, the HRD Review
2003 only uses data that have been extensively tested. The consequence of this decision, however,
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is that the Review can only work with older data. The cut-off point for the HRD Review 2003 is largely
December 2000, although certain chapters are able to draw on data from 2001 and 2002. Future
HRD reviews will be similarly constrained.
In conclusion, then, the project is a comprehensive attempt to describe and measure the complex,
inter-related social conditions that characterise South Africa. The book and the Data Warehouse,
through the evidence they present, also identify certain critical joined-up policy requirements that are
essential for the future success of governments HRD Strategy.
Andre Kraak and Helene Perold
General Editors
Note
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Kraak, A (2004) An Overview of South African Human Resources Development: The Importance of Joined-Up Policy Co-ordination and
Implementation, Human Sciences Research Council, Cape Town: HSRC Press
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The authorship of this Review is institutional and therefore collective, and requires the acknowledgement
of the people who spent many weeks and months working on this project.
The Department of Science and Technology
At the outset we pay tribute to the Department of Science and Technology, whose generous ring-
fenced grant for the period 2001 to 2003 has enabled us to produce a comprehensive and high-
quality product.
The project team
We would like to acknowledge and thank our highly capable project team who made the Human
Resources Development Review 2003 and Data Warehouse website a reality: They are:
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General Editors: Andre Kraak and Helene Perold
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Project Managers of the Human Resources Development Review 2003: Leslie Powell, Ansie
Lombaard and Lindi Basson
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Project Manager of the Data Warehouse: Andrew Paterson
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The Data Warehouse technical development team: Robin Naude, Arjen van Zwieten and Helen Perry
Supporting the project team were the following people, to whom thanks are due for their important
contributions to the project:
Kathleen Bartels (copy-editor); Martie Boesenberg (technical proofreader); Michael Cosser, Glenda
Kruss, Moeketsi Letseka, Simon McGrath and Andrew Paterson (proofreaders); Jeanne Cope (indexer);
Sue Munro (web pages); Gerald OSullivan (IT support); Lucia Lotter (search facility); Debbie Teixeira
and Nicky Clark of Manik Design (design and layout); Hans Ros (server administration); Richard
Rufus-Ellis (external proofreader); Monica Seeber and Kyle McCloughlin (permissions); Marise Swardt
(picture research).
Authors
We thank the following authors who contributed their research and analyses from their positions
outside the HSRC and those within: Salim Akoojee, Miriam Altman, Fabian Arends, Azeem Badroodien,
Tracy Bailey, Haroon Bhorat, Nelius Boshoff, Angus Bowmaker-Falconer, Debbie Budlender, Luis
Crouch, Reza C Daniels, Richard Devey, Jacques L du Toit, Johan Erasmus, Glen Fisher, Elsje Hall,
Graham Hall, Frank M Horwitz, Ros Jaff, Philip Kneebone, Charlton Koen, Andre Kraak, Deborah
Lee, Marina Mayer, Anna McCord, Percy Moleke, Johann Mouton, Andrew Paterson, Helen Perry,
Pundy Pillay, Lesley Powell, Joan Roodt, Caroline Skinner, Grové Steyn, George Subotzky, Imraan
Valodia, Jocelyn Vass, David R Walwyn, Russell Wildeman and Ingrid Woolard.
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
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Reviewers
The following senior academics and government policy experts are thanked for undertaking the
demanding peer review of 28 chapters in a very short space of time:
External reviewers
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David Ashton, Professor of Sociology and Director of the Centre for Labour Market Studies,
Leicester University
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Haroon Bhorat, Director of the Development Policy Research Unit (DPRU) based at the School of
Economics, University of Cape Town
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Adrienne Bird, Deputy Director-General, Department of Labour
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Ian Bunting, Director of Planning, Higher Education branch of the national Department of Education
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Trevor Coombe, formerly Deputy Director-General, Department of Education, Pretoria, and currently
an education consultant
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Adeline du Toit, Professor and Head of Department of Information Studies, Rand Afrikaans
University
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Hugh Lauder, Professor of Education, Bath University
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Ian Macun, Director, Skills Development Planning Unit, Department of Labour
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Enver Motala, formerly Deputy Director-General, Department of Education, Gauteng Province,
and currently an education consultant
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Joe Muller, Professor of Education, University of Cape Town
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Helen Perry, independent contractor specialising in education management information systems
(EMIS) and education planning
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Pundy Pillay, Senior Research Economist for the Research Triangle Institute (SA)
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Chris Rensleigh, Lecturer, Department of Information Studies, Rand Afrikaans University
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Charles Simkins, Professor of Economics, University of the Witwatersrand
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Eddie Webster, Professor of Industrial Sociology, University of the Witwatersrand
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Michael Young, Professor of Education, Institute of Education, University of London
Internal reviewers
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Miriam Altman, Executive Director, Research Programme on Employment and Economic Policy,
HSRC
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Simon McGrath, Director of FET Research, Research Programme on Human Resources
Development, HSRC
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Andrew Paterson, Chief Research Specialist of EMIS Research, Research Programme on Human
Resources Development, HSRC
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[...]... 2003 l HRD REVIEW xxix ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS HDI HDI HDIs HDR HDT HDU HEARD HEMIS HEQC HIV/AIDS HPCSA HPI HRD HSRC HSS ICT IDRC IEB IES IMD Free download from www.hsrcpublishers.ac.za ILO IMS ISASA ISETT ISI IT ITBs KILM KZN LC LFS LP MAPPP MBA MCSE MEDUNSA MERG MERSETA xxx HRD REVIEW l 2003 Human development index Historically disadvantaged institution Historically disadvantaged individuals Human. .. individuals Human Development Report Historically disadvantaged technikon Historically disadvantaged university Health Economics and AIDS Research Division Higher Education Management Information System Higher Education Quality Committee Human Immunodeficiency Virus/ Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome Health Professions Council of South Africa Human poverty index Human resources development Human Sciences... are staple goods such as food, clothing and housing (Chapter 3) 2003 l HRD REVIEW xiii LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES Note: All this data can be downloaded in Excel format off the HSRCs Data Warehouse website on http://hrdwarehouse.hsrc.ac.za CONTEXT Chapter 1 HRD and Joined-Up Policy Table 1 Institutions critical to the development of human resources Table 2 Estimated number of annual school-leavers who... 6 Emigration of professionals by gender, 1971-2000 243 Figure 7 Emigration of professionals by destination, 1970-2000 243 Chapter 11 International Benchmarks Components of the human development index, 2002 259 Table 2 Human development index trends, 1975-2000 260 Table 3 Mean scores showing South Africas performance in the TIMSS, 1999 261 Table 4 HIV/AIDS indicators, end 1999 263 Table 5 Labour force... 1998/99-2004/05 (MTEF projection for 2004/05) (R million) 54 Table 11 Provincial social service expenditure by sector (nominal), 1997/98 -2003/ 04 (MTEF projection for 2003/ 04) (R billion) 55 Table 12 Provincial education expenditure, 1997/98 -2003/ 04 (MTEF projection for 2003/ 04) (R billion) 56 CPIX and real growth in GDP 1996/97-2001/02 , 40 Figure 2 Gross capital formation in 1995 prices 41 Figure 3 Change... million) 48 Figure 1 Figure 6 xiv HRD REVIEW l 2003 LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES Figure 7 Consolidated national and provincial expenditure by service, 2004/05 MTEF projection 51 Figure 8 Consolidated national and provincial social service expenditure by sector, 2004/05 MTEF projection 53 Social service expenditure (nominal), 1997/98 -2003/ 04 (MTEF projection for 2003/ 04)(R billion) 55 Figure 10 Sectoral... thousand) 289 MTEF spending estimates for provincial public schools by province, 2001/02 actual to 2004/05 (R thousand) 290 Per capita spending in public schools by province, 2001/02 -2003/ 04 (Rand values) 291 Table 6 Table 7 2003 l HRD REVIEW xix LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES Table 8 Average per learner allocation on the norms and standards for 2000 and 2001 (Rand values) 291 Table 9 MTEF estimates for technical... institutions by race and institution type, 2000 and 2001 426 2003 l HRD REVIEW xxiii LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES Chapter 19 Enterprise Training Table 1 Enterprise training, 1986-1998 437 Table 2 Distribution of private sector enterprises by enterprise size and employment, 1997 440 Table 3 Measures of progress against key NSDS success indicators, 2002 -2003 443 Table 4 Aggregate training rates, 2000-2002 445... and Development BMR Bureau for Market Research CAD Computer-aided design CASE Community Agency for Social Enquiry CBI Cape Biotechnology Initiative CENIS Centre for Interdisciplinary Studies CEO Chief Executive Officer CESM Classification Educational Subject Matter CGS Council for Geoscience CHE Council on Higher Education CSDS Centre for Social and Development Studies, now called the School of Development. .. (FTEs), 1983/84-1997/98 228 Figure 15 Masters and doctoral enrolments at universities, 1985-2000 229 Figure 16 University postgraduate enrolments in the natural and human sciences, 1995 and 2000 230 Figure 11 Figure 12 xviii HRD REVIEW l 2003 LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES Chapter 10 Skills Migration Table 1 Emigration of professionals: Comparative figures for top destination countries, 1989-1997 238 Table . www.hsrc
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© 2003 Human Sciences Research Council
Compiled by the Research Programme on Human Resources Development, Human Sciences. of South Africa
Recommended citation:
Human Sciences Research Council (2003) Human Resources Development Review 2003: Education, Employment
and Skills
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