Group 11 Gold price fluctuations in Vietnam in 2012 Gold Price Fluctuations in Vietnam in 2012 Instructor: Dr. Hoang Xuan Binh Group members: 1. Nguyen Thai Ha 2. Phung Thi Hao 3. Nguyen Thi My Hang 4. Phan Thu Hien 5. Nguyen Thi Hue 6. Nguyen Thi Hoai Phuong 7. Pham Ha My Page 1 Group 11 Gold price fluctuations in Vietnam in 2012 8. Than Duong Thuy 9. 10. CONTENTS 11. 12. 13. INTRODUCTION 14. 15. Gold has always fascinated the mankind’s imagination and influenced their urge to possess the same. Gold occupies a pivotal role in the social and economic life of poor and rich alike. In Vietnam, besides the economic and strong social considerations, individuals are highly sentimental about the gold jewellery in their possession, as the gold ornaments are passed on from one generation to another. Acquisition of gold is considered auspicious and necessary for making family ornaments to get a sense of wellbeing in our country. Gold is increasingly considered as an investment that appreciates over years and provides a hedge against inflation. Gold is also considered as a medium that can be pledged easily during difficult times for securing financial accommodation. 16. Gold price in Vietnam in long-time trend is upward but in short-time period, the price of gold fluctuates very complicatedly. From 2001, gold price increases continuously. In 2012, the price of gold is really “hot”. The enormous rise in gold price causes an unhealthy psychological effect on people: when the price goes up, they try to buy as much as they can, but when it falls, people tend to sell gold as quickly as possible. This is one of the reasons for the expectation of increasing price level of gold, beside the main factor brought by the fluctuations in global gold prices. The instability of gold price seems to make Vietnam’s economy worsen. Moreover, gold market in Vietnam has a close relationship with the market in the world. It raises questions that what the causes, effects and solutions for this situation are; and which will have a direct effect on? 17. From the above, the reasons for this fluctuation, effects and solutions are the most concern of many people. Thus, we chose “Gold price fluctuations in Vietnam in 2012” as our topic. The assignment is presented in the following structure: I. Overview in gold price II. Gold price fluctuations in Vietnam in 2012 III. Prediction on gold price in 2013 and policy suggestions Page 2 Group 11 Gold price fluctuations in Vietnam in 2012 18. 19. 20. Page 3 Group 11 Gold price fluctuations in Vietnam in 2012 I. OVERVIEW ON GOLD PRICE 21. 1. Basic knowledge on gold 22. 23. Gold is a chemical element with the symbol Au (from Latin: aurum "gold") and an atomic number of 79. 24. 25. Gold has significantly shaped the history of man, his economy and his overall perception of life to being a simple hunter gatherer to a man who is driven by the power of capitalism and understands the value of wealth and its possession. 26. People hold gold for a safety, security and privacy thanks to its valuable and highly sought-after precious metal for coinage, jewelry, and other. When buying the right gold, it is easy to buy, sell, store and transport in a crisis. Many investors around the world see gold as “the ultimate asset” – an important and secure part of their investment portfolios. Gold has kept up with inflation during the past 200 years. 27. Although it is one of the most popular investment portfolios, gold weight measurement is different in each part of the world. Therefore, investors must study the measurement of gold in the market they invest. 28. 2. Measurement of gold 2.1. Measurement of gold in the world 29. Since gold is real money it doesn’t really have a price but more than an exchange rate with other currencies. In the world, gold measuring is usually done from 2 points of view: Purity and Weight. The purity of gold articles may be described in Page 4 Group 11 Gold price fluctuations in Vietnam in 2012 two ways: Carat, meaning parts of gold per 24 and Percent, meaning parts of gold per 100. About gold’s weight, the most widely known and used measure unit for gold is the troy ounce. 30. 31. One troy ounce (480 grains) is 31.1034768 grams. 2.2. Measurement of gold in Vietnam 32. In Vietnam, gold’s purity is also measured in carats. However, most popular gold’s weight measurement here is “chỉ”, a traditional Vietnam weight unit. Additionally, “cây” is another unit to measure a great amount of gold. 33. 1 chỉ = 3.75 grams 34. 1 cây = 10 chỉ 35. 36. Page 5 Group 11 Gold price fluctuations in Vietnam in 2012 1. The formula to convert the world gold price to the domestic gold price 37. This is the general formula to convert the world price (WGP) to the Vietnamese gold price (DGP) 38. DGP = (WGP + shipping charge + insurance premium) * 1.20556*e (VND/USD) + processing charge 39. Page 6 Group 11 Gold price fluctuations in Vietnam in 2012 II. GOLD PRICE FLUCTUATION IN VIETNAM IN 2012 40. 3. The situation of gold price in Vietnam 41. In Vietnam, the average growth rate of gold price increases 24% per year in recent years. The rate is so high that many people decide to invest into gold and gain much profit from this investment. After that, the fluctuation of gold price affects national inflation by philosophy and belief of residents. 42. According to economic statistics, the growth rate of gold price in 2012 is quite slower than that one over the last decade. The average growth rate in 2012 is greater than that of 2011 by 7.83% but much lower than that of 2011 against 2010 (39%). 43. 44. 45. Month 46. 47. Gold price/tael (million VND) 48. 31-01- 12 49. 43.75 50. 29-02- 12 51. 44.89 52. 30-03- 12 53. 44.23 54. 30-04- 12 55. 43.05 56. 31-05- 12 57. 41.59 58. 29-06- 12 59. 41.92 60. 31-07- 12 61. 41.79 Page 7 Group 11 Gold price fluctuations in Vietnam in 2012 62. 31-08- 12 63. 42.98 64. 28-09- 12 65. 46.35 66. 31-10- 12 67. 47.36 68. 30-11- 12 69. 47.17 70. 31-12- 12 71. 46.47 72. 31-01- 13 73. 45.42 74. 28-02- 13 75. 43.32 76. 29-03- 13 77. 43.84 78. 30-04- 13 79. 42.83 80. 81. 82. Gold prices can divide into 3 main periods from 2012: • From January to May 2012, gold price fluctuated. At the end of February 2012 it rose dramatically, from 43.8 million dong to 44.9 million dong but after that it decreased sharply and reached the lowest point at May 2012 (41.6 million dong). • From May to August 2012, it remained stably at the average level of 42 million dong per tael. Positive relationship between gold price and risky assets such as stocks was being raised. • On the contrary, gold price had the sign of recovery and rapidly reach the peak with the figure of 47.4 million dong. It is obvious that the price of gold in the global market that rose to $1,772.60 per ounce had pushed the domestic market, which has been the trend during the first two weeks of Page 8 Group 11 Gold price fluctuations in Vietnam in 2012 October. However, from October 2012 gold market continued falling temperature and declined steadily. 83. As can be seen, the gap between domestic and global price of gold was still quite big, which is between 2.8-3 million VND (roughly $140-150) in favors of the domestic one, due to lack of a good connection between domestic and foreign gold investors. According to Reuters, the level of profit that investors gain from gold market is lower than other basic goods belonged into RJ/CRB Index. 84. 4. Causes of gold price fluctuation 4.1. The international influence on Vietnam’s gold price 85. The world gold price and our domestic gold price have a strong relation. Any changes in the global gold price can have direct influence on our country’s gold price, and the price in the world can be the reference system for the price in Vietnam. However, the gold price of Vietnam’s market is set by the government, so when the gold price in the world changes rapidly, the Vietnam gold price reacts slowly. In 2012, there was a rising trend all over the world, which directly caused our domestic price to fluctuate in the same rising trend. Therefore, investing in gold was still the key to profits in 2012. The phenomenon of increasing in price of gold in 2012 is caused by some main factors. 86. The first reason was the decline in gold supply. Gold is provided mainly from gold mining companies, the recycling gold after being used and the possible sale of gold of central banks. Some of the largest mining gold producers of in the world are in South Africa, United States, South America and a little in Indonesia and Australia. But in this year, mines in those countries were encountering difficulties. Strikes, power outages and being forced to dig deeper into mines were increasing the cost of excavating, especially in South Africa. This seems that the drop in production was on the cards in 2012, and as we all know, fall in supply will lead to the rise in the price. 87. The second one was the rise in demand. The demand for gold is composed of three building blocks: Gold for technological applications (particularly in dentistry and electronics), gold in jewelry and gold as an investment product. 2011 saw a 30% increase in demand for gold coins and this trend continued into 2012 as the global economy still looked gloomy. Investors, to protect the wealth, intended to a safe investment like gold. 88. The third reason was the central bank activities. Central banks around the world had bought some 150 tons of gold in the 3rd quarter of 2011. This was a dramatic u-turn from traditional policy which was to sell. Venezuela had been in the news as leader Hugo Chavez began the process of repatriating the nation’s gold Page 9 Group 11 Gold price fluctuations in Vietnam in 2012 supply. Central banks were looking for gold because they were unsure about the status of foreign debts with some nations threatening to default on loans. 89. The next one is low interest rates. The interest rates in all over the world almost remained low in 2012 which reduced risks in investing in gold. There was a co- tango between gold’s lease rate and interest rates which lead to a higher gold price. Investors also had low regard for hedging companies which put pressure against the process of hedging. 90. In addition, one of the important reasons was the economic climate. Various bailout packages and quantitative easing measures took action and give some results. Typically, the economy of United States showed signs of recovery by the quantitative easing policy (QE3) in October 2012; the EU public debt has been more optimistic and the Chinese economy was not in difficulties after a hot growth period as many experts considered. They had the direct impact on gold price. When the world economy has overcome the crisis, the thoughts holding gold would be reduced, and then it might lead to the downward trend in gold price in the next time. 91. Finally, one more reason is jewelry. Nearly 50% of the global demand for gold focuses on the jewelry industry; it was account for about 2000 tonnes in 4405.5 tonnes of total gold demand in the world. Moreover, the two countries were the world’s largest jewelry market, China and Indonesia, have been experienced increases in demand of gold. Although the physical amount of gold required for jewelry has decreased from 2011 to 2012 about 4%, the increase in price of gold means that the dollar demand was higher than ever. 92. All the factors above indicate that the world gold price continue the rising process following last 11 years. The high level of gold price in the world created the psychology holding gold on individuals and businesses which directly and strongly influences Vietnam’s gold price. 4.2. Domestic influence a. Demand and supply 93. Vietnam is a gold import country. When the government set the gold price lower than the equivalent world gold price, gold trading companies whose gold source is available will export gold to gain profit. In case, the domestic gold price is higher than the world price, they will import gold to supply the domestic market. However, this source depends on the quota allowed by State Bank. Thus, the supply hardly meets the demand of gold, which forces gold price higher and higher. Speculation and smuggling make the price of gold in the country more difficult to control. Page 10 [...]... manufacturing, paralyzed banking, so investing in such thing as 101 Page 11 Group 11 Gold price fluctuations in Vietnam in 2012 immovable assets, stocks, and finance market was so risky that many investors chose gold as safe haven asset Obviously, the increasing in demand accelerated the gold prices d Inflation The inflation in Vietnam is reduced from 18.13% in 2011 to 6.81% in 2012, but it is still a big...Group 11 Gold price fluctuations in Vietnam in 2012 The gold demand in Vietnam includes: gold for jewelry, gold for accumulation, gold for production and gold for investment They have the strong and direct impact on the gold price in the market 94 Since the gold bars were used in Vietnam s gold market, they began to be used as a profitable investment channel or as a form of payment instead of cash... condition of gold price fluctuations in 2012 had a great impact on speculators or investors in Vietnam It not only brought chances but also risks to them 129 130 131 Page 17 Group 11 Gold price fluctuations in Vietnam in 2012 Reaction to stabilize gold price of the Government and State bank in 2012 2 Witnessing the fluctuations in gold price, Government and State Bank of Viet Nam (SBV) did certain moves... professional business entities, better ensuring people’s interests 138 139 Page 19 Group 11 III Gold price fluctuations in Vietnam in 2012 PREDICTION ON GOLD PRICE IN 2013 AND POLICY SUGGESTION 140 6 Prediction on gold price in 2013 The year 2012 finished with an upward trend in gold price level which is a good signal for Vietnam s Economy However, it can be clearly seen that the gold price will change in 2013... government in gold trading activities leads to many loopholes in gold trading activities and controlling gold prices in the country 100 c Crisis The macroeconomic situation is not stable in 2012 made people have a tendency of buying more gold for accumulation and investment According to Planning & Investment Ministry, 2012 witnessed 54,261 bankruptcies of enterprises, lack of capital in manufacturing, paralyzed... and international investors can join the market This solution will help reduce differences in gold price and prevent gold smuggling 158 b Mobilizing gold reserve in the population According to Mr Nguyen Van Binh, Governor of the State Bank of Vietnam, there are about 250 to 400 tonnes of gold in population It is huge amount 159 Page 23 Group 11 Gold price fluctuations in Vietnam in 2012 and if government... 149 increasing price period from 2000 to 2012 is continuous Within 12 years, the price of gold reached an average increase of 27%, even in some periods, it increased by 33% But in 2013, the gold price does not go along the previous cycle and is on downward trend It can be said that the gold rally may remain in the medium term In short, the price of gold will have great pressure, because the belief in. .. the price of gold as before, but in Ho Chi Minh City, by contrast, paying these real estate transactions in gold is quite common As gold prices surge, especially when Vietnam dong is not reliable and safe enough, the individuals or investors must find ways to purchase real estate in gold or dollars instead The amount of real estate transactions in gold is still up to 60% or 70% 109 When the gold price. .. creating pressure on the gold market He thinks that the current domestic price pressure is difficult to break higher However, I do not entirely believe that domestic prices will go down from now until the end of the year but hardly increased at a high level as the previous year 148 Page 21 Group 11 Gold price fluctuations in Vietnam in 2012 151 Page 22 Group 11 Gold price fluctuations in Vietnam in 2012. .. of gold and did not sell it into gold market, leading to the shortage in supply this metal, with hope of raising the price continuously, and then they could sell it with much higher price than the price they bought However, this is risky and many of them had to pay an expensive price to this The gold price increasing and decreasing making them selling them at lower price and went bankrupt 127 Turning . Group 11 Gold price fluctuations in Vietnam in 2012 Gold Price Fluctuations in Vietnam in 2012 Instructor: Dr. Hoang Xuan Binh Group members: 1. Nguyen. price fluctuations in Vietnam in 2012 III. Prediction on gold price in 2013 and policy suggestions Page 2 Group 11 Gold price fluctuations in Vietnam in 2012 18. 19. 20. Page