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NATIONAL SECURITY RESEARCH DIVISION
Talking to
the Enemy
Dalia Dassa Kaye
Track Two Diplomacy in the
Middle East and South Asia
The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing
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facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s
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© Copyright 2007 RAND Corporation
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Published 2007 by the RAND Corporation
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Kaye, Dalia Dassa.
Talking to the enemy : track two diplomacy in the Middle East and South Asia /
Dalia Dassa Kaye.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references.
ISBN 978-0-8330-4191-3 (pbk. : alk. paper)
1. Conflict management—Case studies. 2. Arab-Israeli conflict—1993–—Peace.
3. Conflict management—South Asia. 4. Mediation, International. 5. Security,
International. I. Title.
JZ6368.K394 2007
956.05'3—dc22
2007028637
Cover Design by Stephen Bloodsworth
This research was conducted within the International Security and
Defense Policy Center (ISDP) of the RAND National Security Research
Division (NSRD). NSRD conducts research and analysis for the Office
of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Commands,
the defense agencies, the Department of the Navy, the Marine Corps,
the U.S. Coast Guard, the U.S. Intelligence Community, allied foreign
governments, and foundations.
iii
Preface
is monograph originated with a Smith Richardson Foundation
research grant to explore the question of how unofficial regional secu-
rity dialogues affect security perceptions and policy in regions defined
by conflict. Do such dialogues affect adversarial relationships and, if
so, how? What are the limits and dangers of such dialogues? e grow-
ing importance of regional contexts and nonstate actors in addressing
a multitude of conflicts has created a greater demand for unofficial
track two security dialogues as a critical foreign policy tool. e appeal
of unofficial dialogues is their ability to raise ideas and solutions that
might not be possible in official circles, but that could over time influ-
ence official thinking and, ultimately, policy. What seems unthinkable
today may, through unofficial contacts, become the norm tomorrow.
But such assumptions about the power of track two diplomacy
have rarely been systematically assessed through empirical analysis.
is work is an attempt to do so. rough an examination of regional
security track two efforts in the Middle East and South Asia, this mono-
graph considers the roles as well as the limits of such processes and
offers ways in which project organizers and funders might assess vari-
ous efforts. Such assessments can provide not only a better understand-
ing of what these types of dialogues have or have not accomplished in
the past, but also a framework for understanding and improving these
efforts in the future. e findings and lessons of this work should apply
not only to the Middle East and South Asia, but also to other regions
struggling to resolve long-standing adversarial relationships.
iv Talking to the Enemy: Track Two Diplomacy in the MIddle East and South Asia
is monograph expands and updates previous work the author
has conducted in the area of track two diplomacy, including Rethink-
ing Track Two Diplomacy: e Middle East and South Asia (Kaye, 2005)
and “Track Two Diplomacy and Regional Security in the Middle East”
(Kaye, 2001b).
is work should be of interest to members of security policy
communities in the United States and abroad as well as regional experts
focusing specifically on the Middle East and South Asia. Academic
researchers and teachers of courses on conflict resolution may also find
the monograph useful. Finally, the work should be helpful to the many
private foundations that fund regional track two efforts as they attempt
to assess the returns on their investment. Comments are welcome and
should be directed to the author (Dalia_Kaye@rand.org).
is monograph results from the RAND Corporation’s continu-
ing program of self-initiated independent research. Support for such
research is provided, in part, by donors and by the independent research
and development provisions of RAND’s contracts for the operation of
its U.S. Department of Defense federally funded research and develop-
ment centers.
RAND’s National Security Research Division (NSRD) oversaw
the final stages of this research.
is research was conducted within the International Security
and Defense Policy Center (ISDP) of the RAND National Security
Research Division (NSRD). NSRD conducts research and analysis
for the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified
Combatant Commands, the defense agencies, the Department of the
Navy, the Marine Corps, the U.S. Coast Guard, the U.S. Intelligence
Community, allied foreign governments, and foundations.
For more information on RAND’s International Security and
Defense Policy Center, contact the Director, James Dobbins. He can
be reached by email at James_Dobbins@rand.org; by phone at 703-
413-1100, extension 5134; or by mail at the R AND Corporation, 1200
South Hayes Street, Arlington, Virginia 22202-5050. More informa-
tion about RAND is available at www.rand.org.
v
Contents
Preface iii
Figure and Tables
ix
Summary
xi
Acknowledgments
xxi
Abbreviations
xxiii
CHAPTER ONE
Rethinking Track Two Diplomacy 1
Key Issues and Questions
1
e State of the Field
2
A Normative Framework
3
Defining Track Two
5
Applying Track Two
8
A Regional Focus
10
Historical Precedents
12
Comparing the Middle East and South Asia
16
Roles for Track Two Dialogues
21
Socialization of Participating Elites: Creating a Constituency
for Regional Cooperation
22
Filtering: Making Others’ Ideas Your Own
23
Transmission: Turning Ideas into New Policies
24
Limits of Track Two Dialogues
25
CHAPTER TWO
Regional Security Dialogues in the Middle East 31
Introduction
31
Overview of Dialogues 34
UCLA and the Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation
36
e Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
38
e Search for Common Ground
39
DePaul University
41
United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR)
42
Cooperative Monitoring Center
43
Canadian-Sponsored Maritime Activities
45
e U.S. Geological Survey and Lawrence Livermore National
Laboratory: Regional Seismic Monitoring Cooperation Project
46
European-Sponsored Activities
47
Gulf Security Track Two Forums
48
Roles
53
Socialization
53
Filtering
63
Policy Impact
65
Limits
68
Elites
68
Domestic Constraints
69
e Regional Environment
71
Conclusion
72
CHAPTER THREE
Regional Security Dialogues in South Asia 75
Introduction
75
Overview of Dialogues
78
Neemrana Process
79
Balusa Group
80
Kashmir Study Group (KSG)
82
Shanghai Process
82
Stimson Center Dialogues
83
CSIS Meetings on Nuclear Risk Reduction Centres (NRRCs)
85
Cooperative Monitoring Center, Sandia National Laboratories
86
Maritime Activities: e Confidence and Cooperation
in South Asian Waters Project
87
Roles
88
vi Talking to the Enemy: Track Two Diplomacy in the MIddle East and South Asia
Socialization 88
Filtering
93
Policy Impact
96
Limits
99
Elites
99
Domestic Constraints
101
Regional Environment
103
Conclusion
104
CHAPTER FOUR
Conclusion 105
Central Arguments
105
Regional Comparisons
107
Regional Lessons
113
Improving Track Two Dialogues
117
Expand the Types of Participants
117
Create or Strengthen Institutional Support and Mentors
for Track Two Activities
119
Localize the Dialogues
120
Bibliography
123
Contents vii
[...]... alter views about the value of cooperation with other regional actors, even if attitudes toward those actors remain generally negative xi xii Talking to the Enemy: Track Two Diplomacy in the MIddle East and South Asia Such dialogue serves as a conditioning process in which regional actors are exposed to new concepts, adapt them to their own contexts, and shape policy debates over time The reframing of... insights throughout the process, and indeed even before the monograph was fully formed I would also like to acknowledge the generous assistance of Peter Jones, who read an earlier version of the manuscript xxi xxii Talking to the Enemy: Track Two Diplomacy in the MIddle East and South Asia and provided extremely useful feedback, particularly on the Middle East sections I am also grateful to David Griffiths... The book also makes an attempt to assess the effectiveness of track two dialogues, although the bulk of the analysis concerns Arab-Israeli bilateral track two dialogues in which the objective is to influence a track one negotiation Only one chapter addresses the issue of regional security dialogues, for which the authors acknowledge it is more difficult to assess effectiveness That said, the fact that the. .. this problem, but the gap between Arabs and Iranians is significant) In the Middle East, Arab governments are ahead of the public in terms of reconciliation with Israel; in South Asia, the reverse appears to be the case Perhaps in part because South Asia’s public is more receptive to reconciliation efforts, track two ideas are spreading to more societal groups in the region and leading to the development... future instability, leading to scenarios that suggest more aggressive Indian behavior xx Talking to the Enemy: Track Two Diplomacy in the MIddle East and South Asia Such concerns are likely to be replicated and viewed with even more alarm in the Middle East if Iran acquires nuclear capability This is particularly the case given that nuclear breakout is unlikely to remain limited to a bipolar relationship... like to acknowledge the assistance of other RAND colleagues, particularly Gene Gritton, Michael Lostumbo, Nurith Berstein, Josh Levine, James Torr, Ron Miller, Stephen Bloodsworth, and John Warren The capable administrative assistance of Isabel Sardou and, especially, Terri Perkins at RAND helped in the preparation of the monograph during the final stages of the process I owe a special thanks to Michael... entirely absent For example, one track two group promoted the idea of a joint pipeline to pump natural gas from Iran to India and Pakistan—addressing the growing energy needs of the two countries while also serving as a peace-building exercise With the renewal of the Indian-Pakistani peace process, the pipeline idea moved to the official track In another instance, a prominent Pakistani general who was involved... and parliamentarians—for over 15 years Because of the long-standing nature of the conflict and the strategic importance of the Middle East and South Asia to vital security interests in the West, these regions pose significant challenges for efforts to improve relations and cooperation among adversaries These regions also provide useful cases to assess the nature and influence of track two dialogues by... xviii Talking to the Enemy: Track Two Diplomacy in the MIddle East and South Asia ments for cooperative security ideas and activities promoted through track two efforts Neither in the Middle East nor in South Asia is there a common perception of external or internal threats that might propel regional actors toward greater regional cooperation; instead, threat perceptions are often based on actors from... such activities and places them squarely in the peace-building realm 4 Talking to the Enemy: Track Two Diplomacy in the MIddle East and South Asia sessment.5 Unlike the Oslo model, many regional track two dialogues are not necessarily intended to have an immediate influence on track one negotiations.6 Instead, many unofficial dialogues are either bilateral or multilateral attempts to address or define regional . the Office
of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Commands,
the defense agencies, the Department of the Navy, the Marine Corps,
the. only to the Middle East and South Asia, but also to other regions
struggling to resolve long-standing adversarial relationships.
iv Talking to the Enemy:
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