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European
Economic
Forecast
EUROPEAN ECONOMY 1|2013
Economic and
Financial Aff airs
Winter 2013
The European Economy series contains important reports and communications from
the Commission to the Council and the Parliament on the economic situation and
developments, such as the European economic forecasts and the Public finances in
EMU report.
Unless otherwise indicated the texts are published under the responsibility of the
Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs of the European Commission to
which enquiries other than those related to sales and subscriptions should be
addressed.
Legal notice
Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on its behalf
may be held responsible for the use which may be made of the
information contained in this publication, or for any errors which, despite
careful preparation and checking, may appear.
More information on the European Union is available on the Internet (http://europa.eu).
ISBN 978-92-79-28344-4
doi: 10.2765/3931
© European Union, 2013
Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged.
European Commission
Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs
COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT
European Economic Forecast
Winter 2013
EUROPEAN ECONOMY 1/2013
ABBREVIATIONS
ii
Countries and regions
EU European Union
EA euro area
BE Belgium
BG Bulgaria
CZ Czech Republic
DK Denmark
DE Germany
EE Estonia
EL Greece
ES Spain
FR France
IE Ireland
IT Italy
CY Cyprus
LV Latvia
LT Lithuania
LU Luxemburg
HU Hungary
MT Malta
NL The Netherlands
AT Austria
PL Poland
PT Portugal
RO Romania
SI Slovenia
SK Slovakia
FI Finland
SE Sweden
UK United Kingdom
HR Croatia
JP Japan
US United States of America
BRICS Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa
CEE Central and Eastern Europe
CIS Commonwealth of Independent States
EFTA European Free Trade Association
MENA Middle East and North Africa
ROW Rest of the World
Economic variables and institutions
BCS Business and Consumer Surveys
CDS Credit Default Swaps
EDP Excessive Deficit Procedure
ESI Economic Sentiment Indicator
Euribor European Interbank Offered Rate
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GNI Gross National Income
HICP Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices
iii
Libor London Interbank Offered Rate
NAWRU Non-Accelerating Wage Rate of Unemployment
PMI Purchasing Managers' Index
REER Real Effective Exchange Rate
SGP Stability and Growth Pact
VAT Value-Added Tax
CPB Centraal Planbureau, the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis
ECB European Central Bank
EFSF European Financial Stabilisation Facility
EMU Economic and Monetary Union
ESM European Stability Mechanism
Fed Federal Reserve, US
IMF International Monetary Fund
NFI Non-financial institutions
OBR Office for Budget Responsibility, UK
OECD Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development
WTO World Trade Organisation
Other abbreviations
BLS Bank Lending Survey
CFCI Composite Financing Cost Indicator
DSGE Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium [model]
FDI Foreign Direct Investment
FLS Funding for Lending Scheme, UK
FY Financial year
LFS Labour Force Survey
LTRO Longer-Term Refinancing Operation
MRO Main Refinancing Operations
OMT Outright Monetary Transactions
SME Small and medium-sized enterprises
QUEST Quarterly Estimation and Simulation Tool, DG ECFIN's DSGE model
VERP Voluntary Early Retirement Pension, Denmark
Graphs/Tables/Units
a.a. Annual average
bbl Barrel
bn Billion
bps Basis points
lhs Left hand scale
pp. / pps. Percentage point / points
pts Points
Q Quarter
q-o-q% Quarter-on-quarter percentage change
rhs Right hand scale
SAAR Seasonally-Adjusted Annual Rate
tn Trillion
y-o-y% Year-on-year percentage change
iv
Currencies
EUR Euro
ECU European currency unit
BGN Bulgarian lev
CNY Chinese yuan, renminbi
CZK Czech koruna
DKK Danish krone
GBP Pound sterling
HUF Hungarian forint
HRK Croatian kuna
ISK Icelandic krona
LTL Lithuanian litas
LVL Latvian lats
MKD Macedonian denar
NOK Norwegian krone
PLN Polish zloty
RON New Romanian leu
RSD Serbian dinar
SEK Swedish krona
CHF Swiss franc
JPY Japanese yen
TRY Turkish lira
USD US dollar
CONTENTS
v
Overview 1
PART I: Economic developments at the aggregated level 5
The EU economy: Gradually overcoming headwinds 7
1. The double disparity of the EU economy 8
2. The external environment 9
3. Financial markets in Europe 10
4. The EU economy 13
5. Risks 27
PART II: Prospects by individual economy 31
Member States 33
1. Belgium: Sluggish growth and ongoing fiscal consolidation 34
2. Bulgaria: Slow recovery ahead 36
3. The Czech Republic: Anaemic consumption and a fragile labour
market 38
4. Denmark: Gradually gaining traction 40
5. Germany: Gradual recovery following a temporary setback 42
6. Estonia: Growing strongly, in tune with the other Baltic States 44
7. Ireland: Easing financing conditions and a modest growth
recovery 46
8. Greece: Conditions set for emerging from turbulence 48
9. Spain: Net exports only source of growth over forecast horizon 50
10. France: Postponed recovery weighs on public finance 52
11. Italy: Economic recession bottoming out in mid-2013 54
12. Cyprus: Prolonged recession and deleveraging ahead 56
13. Latvia: Strong growth amid low inflation and robust public
finances 58
14. Lithuania: Steady growth ahead 60
15. Luxembourg: Less manufactures made in Luxembourg 62
16. Hungary: Slow economic recovery weighs on public finances 64
17. Malta: Growth gradually gaining pace 66
18. The Netherlands: Housing market adjustments impose a drag on
economic activity 68
19. Austria: Embarking on a moderate upturn 70
20. Poland: Flying on one engine 72
21. Portugal: Negative growth surprise could signal delayed
recovery 74
22. Romania: Domestic demand drives modest recovery 76
23. Slovenia: Double-dip and on-going adjustment delay
consolidation 78
24. Slovakia: Growth temporarily weakens as external boost tails off 80
25. Finland: Domestic demand remains main growth driver 82
26. Sweden: From lacklustre growth towards a gradual recovery 84
27. The United Kingdom: Green shoots on the horizon 86
vi
Acceding Countries 89
28. Croatia: Staying in the economic doldrums 90
Candidate Countries 93
29. Candidate Countries: Recovering after the double-dip? 94
Other non-EU Countries 97
30. The United States of America: Growth restrained by fiscal
uncertainties 98
31. Japan: Near-term growth expected but long-term challenges
remain 100
32. China: Growth picks up and rebalancing makes some headway 102
33. Russian Federation: Commodity-fuelled growth with
modernisation pending 104
Statistical Annex 109
LIST OF TABLES
1. Overview - the winter 2013 forecast 1
I.1. International environment 9
I.2. Composition of growth - EU 15
I.3. Composition of growth - euro area 16
I.4. Labour market outlook - euro area and EU 23
I.5. Euro-area debt dynamics 27
LIST OF GRAPHS
I.1. Real GDP, EU 7
I.2. HICP, EU 7
I.3. World trade and Global PMI manufacturing output 10
I.4. Ten-year government-bond yields, selected euro-area
Member States 10
I.5. Bank lending to households and non-financial corporations,
euro area 11
I.6. Net changes in credit standards and credit demand for
loans to non-financial corporations, euro area 11
I.7. Economic Sentiment Indicator and PMI Composite Output
Index, EU 14
I.8. Quarterly GDP growth, EU and euro area 14
I.9. Global demand, EU exports and new export orders 15
I.10. Equipment investment and capacity utilisation, EU 17
I.11. Private consumption and consumer confidence, EU 22
I.12. Current-account balances, euro-area and Member States 22
I.13. Employment growth and unemployment rate, EU 23
I.14. Employment expectations, DG ECFIN surveys, EU 24
I.15. HICP, euro area 25
I.16. Inflation breakdown, EU 25
I.17. Producer Price Inflation and survey inflation expectations, EU 26
I.18. Budgetary developments, EU 26
vii
I.19. Euro area GDP forecasts - Uncertainty linked to the balance
of risks 28
LIST OF BOXES
I.1. Abating event risks and improved sentiment in financial
markets 12
I.2. Non-residential investment in the EU 18
I.3. Some technical elements behind the forecast 29
[...]... to take over as the main driver of further strengthening GDP growth Table 1: Overview - the winter 2013 forecast Real GDP 2011 Inflation Winter 2013 forecast 2012 2013 2014 Winter 2013 forecast 2012 2013 2014 2011 Unemployment rate 2011 Winter 2013 forecast 2012 2013 2014 Belgium 1.8 -0.2 0.2 1.5 3.5 2.6 1.6 1.5 7.2 7.3 7.7 7.7 Germany Estonia Ireland Greece Spain France Italy Cyprus Luxembourg Malta... to be below their long-term average and are expected to be decreasing 17 European Economic Forecast, Winter 2013 (Continued on the next page) 18 Economic developments at the aggregated level Box (continued) (Continued on the next page) 19 European Economic Forecast, Winter 2013 Box (continued) (Continued on the next page) 20 Economic developments at the aggregated level Box (continued) … and consumption... acceleration in global activity in 2013, global trade is expected to pick up slowly Projections for nonEU trade are for an increase of around 4½% in 2013 and around 6% in 2014 9 European Economic Forecast, Winter 2013 respectively Assumptions for other commodity prices remain broadly unchanged from the autumn forecast, though metal prices are expected to recover in 2013 3 Recent survey data point to... recession of two consecutive quarters of declining 13 European Economic Forecast, Winter 2013 output largely thanks to exceptional factors in the UK (7) A gradual stabilisation is expected for 2013 … At the beginning of 2013, readings of sentiment indicators suggest that both the EU and euro-area economies are bottoming out in the first quarter In January, the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) and the PMI... Another reduction to 3½% in the EU and 2¾% in the euro area is projected in 2013 The adjustment in the structural budget balance is 3 European Economic Forecast, Winter 2013 projected to advance at a slightly slower pace this year Despite the ongoing fiscal consolidation, debt-to-GDP ratios are still forecast to increase in 2013 due to the more negative contribution of real GDP growth and – in the case... employment in 2013 is projected to decrease by ½% in the EU and by ¾% in the euro area The unemployment rate is set to climb higher in both areas and to remain at elevated levels over the forecast horizon Annual growth in labour productivity slowed down over the first half of 2012 and survey indicators point to continuing weaknesses in the near future 23 European Economic Forecast, Winter 2013 Overall,... households, firms, banks and sovereigns in several Member States to strengthen their balance sheets and bring down debt to sustainable levels is likely to constrain the 15 European Economic Forecast, Winter 2013 dynamics of domestic demand over the forecast horizon In particular, the substantial easing of financial market tensions over the last months has not yet translated into a significant improvement in... to the ECB, 305 counterparties decided to exercise an option to repay EUR 140.6 bn of funding received through the first 3-year LTROs in late 2011 and early 2012 11 European Economic Forecast, Winter 2013 (Continued on the next page) 12 Economic developments at the aggregated level Box (continued) Moreover, access to finance seems to be a limiting factor particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises... Uncertainty stemming from the sovereign-debt crisis and increasing unemployment fears are 21 European Economic Forecast, Winter 2013 likely to have led households to increase their precautionary savings (15) External rebalancing is progressing … The ongoing external adjustment in several Member States amid a difficult economic and financial environment will shape the recovery across countries Structural... year In 2014, consumer prices are forecast to increase by 1.7% in the EU and 1.5% in the euro area In response to the substantial reduction in tail risks and financial market stress risks to the growth outlook have become more balanced but continue to be tilted to the downside In contrast, risks are balanced for the inflation outlook 7 European Economic Forecast, Winter 2013 1 THE DOUBLE ECONOMY DISPARITY . 1:
Overview - the winter 2013 forecast
Real GDP Inflation Unemployment rate
Winter 2013 Winter 2013 Winter 2013
forecast forecast forecast
2011 2012 2013 2014. European
Economic
Forecast
EUROPEAN ECONOMY 1 |2013
Economic and
Financial Aff airs
Winter 2013
The European Economy series contains
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