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Eric V. Larson, Derek Eaton,
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Approved for public release; distribution unlimited
ARROYO CENTER
Assessing
Irregular Warfare
A Framework for Intelligence Analysis
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Assessing irregular warfare : a framework for intelligence analysis / Eric V. Larson
[et al.].
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references.
ISBN 978-0-8330-4322-1 (pbk. : alk. paper)
1. Military intelligence—United States. 2. Asymmetric warfare. I. Larson, Eric V.
(Eric Victor), 1957–
UB251.U5A77 2008
355.3'432—dc22
2008004727
The research described in this report was sponsored by the United States
Army under Contract No. DASW01-01-C-0003.
iii
Preface
is monograph documents the results of a study titled “Planning
Intelligence Support to Irregular Warfare.” e aim of the study was
to assist the National Ground Intelligence Center (NGIC) in better
understanding the intelligence analytic requirements of irregular war-
fare (IW) by providing an analytic framework for IW on which to base
an educational and training curriculum that would enhance the capa-
bilities NGIC analysts use to assess IW situations.
e results described should be of interest to intelligence analysts
and managers in the intelligence community who are wrestling with the
innumerable conceptual, collection, and analytic challenges presented
by contemporary IW environments. Additionally, these results may be
of interest to scholarly audiences involved in developing new analytic
methodologies and tools that might be employed in IW analysis.
is research was sponsored by the NGIC, a major subordinate
command of the U.S. Army’s Intelligence and Security Command,
and conducted within RAND Arroyo Center’s Strategy, Doctrine, and
Resources Program. RAND Arroyo Center, part of the RAND Cor-
poration, is a federally funded research and development center spon-
sored by the United States Army.
For comments or further information about this monograph,
please contact omas Szayna (telephone 310-393-0411, extension
7758; e-mail omas_Szayna@rand.org) or Eric Larson (telephone
310-393-0411, extension 7467; email larson@rand.org).
e Project Unique Identification Code (PUIC) for the project
that produced this document is NGIC-06001.
iv Assessing Irregular Warfare: A Framework for Intelligence Analysis
For more information on RAND Arroyo Center, contact the Director
of Operations (telephone 310-393-0411, extension 6419; FAX 310-451-
6952; email Marcy_Agmon@rand.org), or visit Arroyo’s Web site at
http://www.rand.org/ard/.
v
Contents
Preface iii
Figures
vii
Tables
ix
Summary
xi
Acknowledgments
xv
Abbreviations
xvii
CHAPTER ONE
Introduction 1
Background to the Study
1
Study Aims and Analytic Approach
3
Organization of is Monograph
5
CHAPTER TWO
Defining Irregular Warfare 7
A Review of Recent Efforts to Define Irregular Warfare
8
Irregular Warfare Operation Types
11
Irregular Warfare Common Logical Lines of Operation
14
Chapter Conclusions
17
CHAPTER THREE
A Framework for Assessing Irregular Warfare 19
Population-Centric Irregular Warfare Operations
20
Initial Assessment and Data Gathering
22
Detailed Stakeholder Analyses
26
Dynamic Analyses
28
vi Assessing Irregular Warfare: A Framework for Intelligence Analysis
Analytic Techniques for Irregular Warfare Analysis 29
Counterterrorism Operations
35
Tactical Counterterrorism Operations
38
Operations Against Transnational Terrorist Networks
39
Comparison to the Standard IPB Process
40
Chapter Conclusions
43
CHAPTER FOUR
Conclusions 45
APPENDIX
A. A Review of Defense Policy, Strategy, and Irregular Warfare 47
B. Irregular Warfare Analysis Doctrinal References
61
References
63
vii
Figures
S.1. Analytic Framework for IW Analysis xii
1.1. Analytic Approach for Identifying IW Intelligence and
Analytic Requirements
4
2.1. Intelligence Requirements for Irregular Warfare Logical
Lines of Operation
16
3.1. IW Assessment Framework
23
3.2. Geospatially Oriented Aspects of the Information Domain
of the Operating Environment
25
A.1. 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review’s Priorities
49
A.2. 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review’s View of reats
50
A.3. National Strategy for Global War on Terrorism
57
A.4. Military Strategic Framework for Greater War on Terrorism
58
[...]... Command Center for Knowledge and Futures, Multi-Service Concept for Irregular Warfare, 2006, p 11; and IW JOC 9/07 = DoD, Irregular Warfare (IW) Joint Operating Concept (JOC), September 2007, p 10 18 IW JOC 9/07, p 10 14 Assessing Irregular Warfare: A Framework for Intelligence Analysis terrorism, foreign internal defense, and unconventional warfare are IW missions/activities, some important differences... Futures, Multi-Service Concept for Irregular Warfare, 2006, p 6; FM 3-24 12/06 = Headquarters, Department of the Army, Counterinsurgency, 2006, p 5-3; IW JOC 9/07 = DoD, Irregular Warfare (IW) Joint Operating Concept (JOC), September 2007, p 10 21 Headquarters, Department of the Army, Counterinsurgency, FM 3-24, Washington, D.C., December 2006, p 5-3 16 Assessing Irregular Warfare: A Framework for Intelligence... Irregular Warfare Missions and Activities 13 Irregular Warfare Logical Lines of Operation 15 Crosswalk with Standard IPB Process 42 ix Summary The aim of this study was to assist the Department of the Army’s National Ground Intelligence Center (NGIC) in better understanding the intelligence analytic requirements of irregular warfare. .. Lexicon (Mar 06 refinement effort results),” Washington, D.C., March 2006, p 13 10 Assessing Irregular Warfare: A Framework for Intelligence Analysis A form of warfare that has as its objective the credibility and/ or legitimacy of the relevant political authority with the goal of undermining or supporting that authority Irregular warfare favors indirect approaches, though it may apply the full range of military... population-centric (such as counterinsurgency) or counterterrorism, that focused on irregular features” of the operating environment—that is, the central environmental and operational variables whose interplay determines the overall trajectory of an irregular conflict toward either success or failure xi xii Assessing Irregular Warfare: A Framework for Intelligence Analysis The central idea of the framework... population.13 Irregular Warfare Operation Types A number of efforts have also been made to define the specific missions that make up IW These, too, have had somewhat inconsistent results: Although the February 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) Report used the term irregular warfare in varying ways, it explicitly called out the following as missions in the IW portfolio: counterinsurgency; unconventional warfare; ... Joint Special Operations and Irregular Warfare Tier 1 JCA, and identified counterinsurgency and foreign internal defense as Tier 2 missions; but it also identified unconventional warfare, counterterrorism, psychological operations, and civil-military operations as Tier 3 Special Operations Forces (SOF) JCAs that support IW.16 The August Multi-Service Concept for Irregular Warfare, while accenting offensive... Development Command and U.S Special Operations Command Center for Knowledge and Futures, Multi-Service Concept for Irregular Warfare, 2006, p 11 Defining Irregular Warfare 13 criminal activities that support or sustain adversaries’ IW activities; law enforcement activities focused on countering irregular adversaries.18 Table 2.1 summarizes the evolution in DoD thinking about IW missions and activities As... Intelligence and Security Command information operations intelligence preparation of the battlefield Intelligence and Threat Analysis Center irregular warfare Joint Capability Area Joint Operating Concept Joint Publication logical line of operation xvii xviii Assessing Irregular Warfare: A Framework for Intelligence Analysis METT-TC NGIC NMSP-WOT OOB OPCON POM PRIO QDR S&TI SI SIPRI SOCOM SOF SSTRO TTP UW WMD/E... for Influence Operations, MG-656-A, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, forthcoming 6 Assessing Irregular Warfare: A Framework for Intelligence Analysis related to IW, and Appendix B lists doctrinal publications identified as addressing the intelligence analytic requirements of IW CHAPTER TWO Defining Irregular Warfare Historical U.S experience with internal conflicts around the world provides ample . 5
CHAPTER TWO
Defining Irregular Warfare 7
A Review of Recent Efforts to Define Irregular Warfare
8
Irregular Warfare Operation Types
11
Irregular Warfare Common. Conclusions
17
CHAPTER THREE
A Framework for Assessing Irregular Warfare 19
Population-Centric Irregular Warfare Operations
20
Initial Assessment and
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