Đang tải... (xem toàn văn)
Công trình nghiên cứu của học viên : "Huỳnh kim thanh phong "Đề tài : "Phân tích lợi ích và chi phí Đường trên cao Nhiêu Lộc – Thị NghèTrong chương trình Giang dạy kinh tế Fulbright
-i- L c hi lu li u s d ng c d n ngu Lu t ph m vi hi u bi t c t thi t ph i ph hay mc i h c Kinh t TP H ng d y Kinh t Fulbright TP.H 27 04 H Hu nh Kim Thanh Phong -ii- L IC c h t t Fulbright su g i l i c n th ng d y Kinh t i h c Kinh t TP.H t ki n th c v a qua T y Nguy c hi n lu c bi il ic ph n bi T n th t lu n t C ph n , nh ng d n ng c m i nh t, c t bu thi t y v n d ak D K p s li u D c - Th ng l i nh c hi n lu g il ic nh ng d y Kinh t uv n C H 27 04 Hu nh Kim Thanh Phong -iii- T D c - Th 2000, c ch ng t i UBND TP.HCM b n ghi nh u ng d iv im thi D m ki n ngh ud t ), ch ) m ng th hi u qu kinh t ,D c BOT v i t ng m 9,39 D n a, it i d ki n vay v n ODA t t ch c JICA l , NPVf f ng -15.233,20 -2.699,31 t n i , K ch b n nv t k k ch b nh ch t 92,18% NPVf M c, k ch b n th c c, K ch b K ch b n v c BOT c BTO n quan tr thi kinh t u qu ng b t l i NPVe = 9.164,07 t 10,49%, v i ti t ki t o ngo so v i i ng t ngu n ODA c a c BTO v i ngu n v n ODA c a k t h p BT K t qu u t t o l 21.349,63 t i tham gia i t a thi t 4.082,59 t ki n ngh tr thu D i 25.462,44 t BETON thi t 30,22 t n TP.HCM: S m tri n khai D ng m c t it ab u ch ng; thu x i t a, ki n ngh c h tr u ch nh gi n ng v n vay ODA cho ph n v n in , ng hi n h u t; l c su cl cv , USD t i ng c a D nD t s h n ch : Tuy c t Monte Carlo ch quan tr hi i c ng ch c giao - l gi nh; -iv- M CL C L i L IC ii T iii M C L C iv DANH M U, CH VI T T T viii DANH M NG BI U ix DANH M TH x GI I THI U 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 tv M u Ph m vi c B c c lu T 2.1 2.1.1 Chu n b 2.1.2 2.1.3 V 2.2 2.3 2.3.1 2.3.2 2.3.3 2.3.4 2.4 2.5 N nc am td ng i ro i d d i 11 D 14 3.1 Gi i thi u D 14 3.1.1 V 14 3.1.2 M aD 15 3.2 nD 17 -v- 3.2.1 3.2.2 3.3 3.3.1 3.3.1.1 3.3.1.2 3.3.2 3.3.3 ph n BETON (BETON 6) 17 ph 18 li 18 ng xe c a D 18 18 d 19 19 nD 19 AD 20 4.1 L p bi n t 20 4.1.1 ti n t 20 4.1.1.1 L 20 4.1.1.2 L 20 4.1.1.3 T 21 4.1.2 21 4.1.2.1 D 21 4.1.2.2 22 4.1.2.3 Thu 23 4.1.3 uv 23 4.1.4 K ho ch vay v 23 4.1.5 Kh n 24 4.1.5.1 u hao 24 4.1.5.2 u hao 25 4.1.6 nh doanh thu 25 4.1.7 V ng 25 4.1.8 N t qu 26 4.2 K t qu 29 4.2.1 mt 29 4.2.2 29 4.3 K t lu n 29 I RO 31 5.1 5.1.1 5.1.2 nh y 31 nh y m t chi u 31 nh y hai chi u 36 -vi- 5.2 ch b n 38 5.2.1 ch b n 38 5.2.2 K t qu k ch b n 39 5.3 ng Monte Carlo 40 5.3.1 nh bi t 40 5.3.2 K t qu 41 6.1 6.1.1 6.1.2 6.1.3 6.1.4 6.1.5 6.2 44 44 45 nh h s chuy i kinh t (CF) 47 t qu 48 nh y kinh t 49 i 50 K T LU 7.1 7.2 7.3 I 44 N NGH 52 K t lu n 52 Ki n ngh 53 Nh ng h n ch nc 55 U THAM KH O 56 PH L C 60 Ph Ph Ph Ph Ph Ph l l l l l l c c 1.1 c 1.2 c 1.3 c c Ph Ph Ph Ph Ph Ph l l l l l l c c c c c c c - Th ng xe d ng xe d ng xe d Chi K ho c - Th 60 60 61 62 63 v 64 c aD 65 L ch kh u hao (t 66 B ng ch s l 67 L ch tr n USD (tri u USD) 68 L ch tr n 69 nD 70 -vii- Ph l c 10 Ph l c 11 Ph Ph Ph Ph Ph Ph Ph Ph Ph Ph Ph Ph Ph Ph Ph Ph Ph Ph Ph Ph Ph l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l c 12 c 13 c 14 c 14.1 c 14.2 c 15 c 15.1 c 15.1.1 c 15.1.2 c 15.1.3 c 15.2 c 15.2.1 c 15.2.2 c 16 c 17 c 18 c 19 c 20 c 20.1 c 20.2 c 20.3 VAT 71 B i kho n ph i tr ( i ti n m t ( CB) c aD 72 t qu ho 73 74 nh h s chuy i kinh t (CF) 75 ng (t 75 it 76 L c aD 77 L t ki n 77 xe theo t ch 77 78 B 79 L t ki m th i gian 80 th 80 B th /xe) 80 D 81 82 n K ch b n 84 a BETON 85 ng D c - Th 86 uD 86 md cD c - Th 87 m cu i D i khu v c C u Th 88 -viii- DANH M C AP: BETON 6: BKC: BOT: BT: BTO: CB: CP: DA: DSCR: EIRR: EOCK: GS E&C: GTVT: IRR: JICA: NPV: NPVe: NPVee: NPVfe: NPVf : NPVf : NPVfNS: PCU: PPP: QLDA: THS: TNDN: TP.HCM: UBND: WACC: Accounts Payable (K U, CH VI T T T ) Built - Operationg - Tranfer ( Built - Tranfer ( Built - Tranfer Cash Balance ) - - giao) ) - - Debt Service Coverage Ratio Economic Internal Rate of Return ( Economic Opportunity Cost of capital ( ) ) The Japan International Cooperation Agency (T ch c H Nh t B n) Net Present Value ( ) Economic Net Present Value ( ) Passenger Car Unit ( Public - Private - Partnerships Weighted - Average Cost of Ccapital ) ct -ix- DANH M C B ng 3.1 B ng h s it NG BI U i xe (PCU) 18 B ng 4.1 T l l 20 B ng 4.2 T l l 21 B ng 4.3 B v ng D 22 B ng 4.4 22 B ng 4.5 B l CB, AP c ph t ng K thu t TP.HCM 25 B ng 4.6 K t qu 29 B ng 4.7 K t qu m ch B ng 5.1 B il 29 32 B ng 5.2 K t qu nh y NPVf theo bi n l 32 B ng 5.3 K t qu nh y NPVf theo bi n l 32 B ng 5.4 K t qu nh y NPVf theo bi B ng 5.5 K t qu nh y NPVf theo bi B ng 5.6 K t qu nh y NPVf t n vay 35 B ng 5.7 K t qu nh y NPVf 36 B ng 5.8 K t qu nh y NPVf theo m B ng 5.9 K t qu nh y NPVf theo B ng 5.10 K t qu d ng xe d i 33 34 37 ng xe d 37 ng k t h nh y NPVf ng xe 38 theo t ng k ch b n ng v B ng 5.11 K t qu p nh y NPVf B ng 5.12 K t qu p nh y NPVfNS theo t ng k ch b n ng v ng 39 ng 39 B ng 5.13 K t qu c a NPVf 42 B ng 5.14 K t qu c a NPVf 42 B ng 5.15 K t qu ng Monte Carlo K ch b n c a NPVf B c aD B ng 6.2 B ng hi n h u 45 i gian ti t ki m t B ng 6.3 B nh B ng 6.5 T ng ngo B nc (t B ng 6.4 i ngo 43 46 48 ng xe 49 aD 50 50 -x- DANH M TH D 12 du i th c - Th th hi n th i gian v n chuy n 15 c - Th ng hi n h u 16 27 vay c a D 27 m ch T l n (DSCR) c a D D 28 28 48 - 74 - n D (t Doanh thu TNDN (1) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 Ngu (2) (3) 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 109,76 115,38 121,28 127,84 134,00 140,86 148,07 150,79 152,73 155,13 157,54 160,44 162,49 165,04 167,62 170,70 172,90 174,53 176,19 178,34 179,54 181,24 182,95 185,19 186,43 188,21 189,99 192,31 193,59 195,42 ph 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 19,08 0,98 1,03 1,14 1,07 1,19 1,25 0,47 0,34 0,42 0,42 0,51 0,36 0,44 0,45 0,54 0,38 0,28 0,29 0,37 0,21 0,30 0,30 0,39 0,22 0,31 0,31 0,40 0,22 0,32 (4) 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 31,40 33,92 40,93 37,08 38,02 46,35 54,69 89,57 51,20 60,70 46,70 70,41 49,90 68,97 107,32 114,35 56,46 95,21 60,06 188,57 94,11 122,94 82,98 156,61 82,64 75,22 89,04 131,49 81,27 194,57 NPV (5) 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 -12,80 -1,02 -2,86 1,57 -0,38 -3,39 -3,40 -14,21 15,64 -3,87 5,70 -9,66 8,35 -7,77 -15,63 -2,86 23,59 -15,79 14,33 -52,36 38,49 -11,75 16,28 -30,00 30,14 3,02 -5,63 -17,29 20,46 -46,17 (6) vay (7) 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 4.000,43 6.053,03 5.660,13 2.487,83 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 ph xu t d (8)=(2)-(3)-(4)-(5)(6)-(7) -4.000,43 -6.053,03 -5.660,13 -2.487,83 72,07 81,51 82,18 88,05 95,30 96,72 95,53 74,96 85,56 97,88 104,71 99,19 103,88 103,39 75,48 58,68 92,47 94,82 101,52 41,76 46,73 69,75 83,39 58,20 73,44 109,66 106,27 77,72 91,64 46,69 -15.233,20 (9) (10) 1.942,41 3.969,26 5.301,14 2.110,88 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 -1.164,26 -1.186,83 -1.209,71 -1.232,92 -1.256,45 -1.280,29 -1.304,45 -1.328,92 -1.353,70 -1.378,79 -1.404,19 -1.429,88 -1.455,88 -1.482,17 -1.508,74 -1.535,59 -1.562,72 -1.590,12 -1.617,77 -1.645,68 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 1.426,52 1.741,87 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 c - Th , BETON (11)=(8)+(9)+(10) -631,49 -341,90 -358,99 -376,94 72,07 81,51 82,18 88,05 95,30 96,72 -1.068,73 -1.111,87 -1.124,15 -1.135,04 -1.151,73 -1.181,10 -1.200,57 -1.225,52 -1.278,22 -1.320,11 -1.311,72 -1.335,06 -1.354,36 -1.440,40 -1.462,01 -1.465,84 -1.479,33 -1.531,92 -1.544,33 -1.536,02 106,27 77,72 91,64 46,69 -2.699,31 - 75 - nh h s chuy n td thi t b thu t c n nh p kh thi t b ng h p l D i kinh t (CF) cc uc c nh t tr ng ngo Vi 30%, thu nh p kh c k t qu li u c u lo i v t li u, i v t li u, ng Ph l c 14.1 ch s i t a Ph l c 14.2 Gi ng (t T 9.433,87 30% 15% 10% 6.603,71 0,80% FV (1) 2.237,28 335,59 257,29 6.603,71 9.433,87 CF (2) 0 0,94 EVunadj (3)=(1)*(2) 2.237,28 %T (4) 100% SERadj (5)=(1)*(4)*FEP 17,90 EVadj (6)=(5)+(3) 2.255,18 6.603,71 8.858,89 - 76 - it (m2) 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 1.040 870 1.760 1.390 31.780 120 1.130 50 5.430 180 4.760 940 4.060 100 70 900 4.220 3.400 4.200 CF Ngu 35,90 35,90 35,90 35,90 21,50 21,50 49,18 49,18 25,80 25,80 25,80 110,55 110,55 110,55 46,65 46,65 56,00 58,30 58,30 37.333,40 31.230,83 63.179,60 49.897,53 683.270,00 2.580,00 55.567,75 2.458,75 140.094,00 4.644,00 122.808,00 103.917,00 448.833,00 11.055,00 3.265,50 41.985,00 236.320,00 198.220,00 244.860,00 2.481.519,35 61.666,80 51.586,65 104.359,20 82.420,05 1.153.614,00 4.356,00 90.117,50 3.987,50 195.480,00 6.480,00 171.360,00 192.230,00 830.270,00 20.450,00 5.691,00 73.170,00 422.000,00 340.000,00 420.000,00 4.229.238,70 1,70 ng Chungsuk Engineering (2008, tr.6), , GS E&C 59,30 59,30 59,30 59,30 36,30 36,30 79,75 79,75 36,00 36,00 36,00 204,50 204,50 204,50 81,30 81,30 100,00 100,00 100,00 , u kh c - Th - 77 - L L c aD t ki n xe theo t ch y Xe bus 12 - 30 (km/h) 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 Ngu n: ALMEC, K ho 07/2004, 508 359 310 274 264 262 264 261 271 284 297 329 4.592 3.756 3.294 2.875 2.621 2.491 2.409 2.312 2.279 2.281 2.230 2.347 u t ng th 2.961 2.302 1.906 1.706 1.505 1.464 1.433 1.408 1.441 1.472 1.548 1.644 - 10t 4.447 3.608 2.688 2.376 2.334 2.267 2.247 2.278 2.348 2.448 2.603 2.698 3.456 2.736 2.270 2.007 1.935 1.922 1.997 2.041 2.288 2.510 2.492 2.506 th v 5.464 4.711 4.276 3.893 3.772 3.709 3.809 4.027 4.135 4.352 4.509 4.750 18t, Container 5.464 4.711 4.276 3.893 3.772 3.709 3.809 4.027 4.135 4.352 4.509 4.750 H ph ik 10 - 18t c - Th - 78 - n n Xe 12 - 30 499 Ngu n: ALMEC, K ho u t ng th ph 4.542 2.483 th v 2.921 1.461 - 4t - 10t 10 - 18t Container 4.397 2.265 3.413 1.930 3.413 5.419 1.930 3.719 H , ik 5.419 3.719 5.419 3.719 ng Chungsuk c - Th - 79 - B t 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Bus 12 - 30 - 4t - 10t 10 - 18t 499 4.542 2.921 4.397 3.413 3.413 5.419 5.419 5.419 541 4.924 3.166 4.766 3.700 3.700 5.874 5.874 5.874 582 5.293 3.403 5.123 3.978 3.978 6.315 6.315 6.315 630 5.732 3.685 5.548 4.308 4.308 6.839 6.839 6.839 776 7.056 4.536 6.830 5.303 5.303 8.419 8.419 8.419 828 7.529 4.840 7.288 5.658 5.658 8.983 8.983 8.983 914 8.312 5.343 8.046 6.246 6.246 9.917 9.917 9.917 1.080 9.819 6.312 9.505 7.378 7.378 11.715 11.715 11.715 1.240 11.277 7.249 10.916 8.473 8.473 13.454 13.454 13.454 2.483 1.461 2.265 1.930 1.930 3.719 3.719 3.719 2.692 1.584 2.455 2.092 2.092 4.031 4.031 4.031 2.894 1.703 2.639 2.249 2.249 4.333 4.333 4.333 3.134 1.844 2.858 2.436 2.436 4.693 4.693 4.693 3.858 2.270 3.518 2.999 2.999 5.777 5.777 5.777 4.116 2.422 3.754 3.200 3.200 6.164 6.164 6.164 4.544 2.674 4.144 3.533 3.533 6.805 6.805 6.805 5.368 3.159 4.895 4.174 4.174 8.039 8.039 8.039 6.165 3.628 5.622 4.794 4.794 9.233 9.233 9.233 Bus 12 - 30 - 4t - 10t 10 - 18t Ngu n: ALMEC, K ho u t ng th ph th v H , ik ng Chungsuk c - Th - 80 - L i t ki m th i gian th i gian, Thu nh S S gi T ng gi th i) i) 2.149.046 23 184 11.680 dung 1,51 1,96 7,09 14,41 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 Xe 12 - 30 Bus - 4t - 10t 10 - 18t 18t, Container Ngu n: IMF (2008), IMF Staff Country Report No.06.52, Vietnam, ph c - Th B Bus 12 - 30 - 4t - 10t 10 - 18t ik th 2008 23,10% 17.637 22.893 82.811 168.309 11.680 11.680 11.680 11.680 11.680 17.637 22.893 82.811 168.309 11.680 11.680 11.680 11.680 11.680 /xe) 2009 6,70% 18.818 24.427 88.360 179.585 12.463 12.463 12.463 12.463 12.463 Ngu n: IMF (2008), IMF Staff Country Report No.06.52, Vietnam, ph v c - Th 2010 10,40% 20.776 26.967 97.549 198.262 13.759 13.759 13.759 13.759 13.759 2011 2012 18,13% 24.542 31.856 115.235 234.207 16.253 16.253 16.253 16.253 16.253 14,85% 28.186 36.586 132.344 268.981 18.666 18.666 18.666 18.666 18.666 ik - 81 - D (t Chi (1) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 Ngu n: L c - Th (2) (3) 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 642,98 709,67 783,28 866,88 954,18 1.053,14 1.162,38 1.242,97 1.321,88 1.409,65 1.503,27 1.607,48 1.709,55 1.823,04 1.944,10 2.078,88 2.210,91 2.343,45 2.483,88 2.640,01 2.790,61 2.957,85 3.135,16 3.332,16 3.522,29 3.733,33 3.957,22 4.205,99 4.446,01 63.350,04 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 328,00 361,97 399,53 442,20 486,76 537,21 592,93 634,02 674,28 719,11 766,80 819,97 872,06 929,92 991,74 1.060,40 1.127,76 1.195,36 1.267,11 1.346,70 1.423,43 1.508,85 1.599,21 1.699,75 1.796,74 1.904,45 2.018,68 2.145,56 2.268,03 32.316,43 NPV EIRR ph (4) (5) 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 22,46 23,10 26,55 22,90 22,37 25,97 29,18 45,52 24,78 27,98 20,50 29,44 19,87 26,16 38,76 39,33 18,50 29,70 17,84 53,36 25,36 31,56 20,28 36,46 18,32 15,88 17,91 25,18 14,82 454,39 T ph 4.908,90 7.071,43 5.368,40 2.372,95 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 xu t d (6)=(2)+(3)-(4)-(5) -4.908,90 -7.071,43 -5.368,40 -2.372,95 948,52 1.048,54 1.156,25 1.286,18 1.418,57 1.564,38 1.726,12 1.831,47 1.971,38 2.100,78 2.249,56 2.398,02 2.561,73 2.726,81 2.897,08 3.099,95 3.320,17 3.509,10 3.733,14 3.933,35 4.188,68 4.435,15 4.714,09 4.995,45 5.300,71 5.621,90 5.957,99 6.326,36 6.699,22 95.212,08 9.164,07 10,49% - 82 - su t ng xe d Khai b 0% 30% 30% Khai b 0% 100% 100% L Khai b 3,0% 0,5% - 83 - L Khai b Crystal Ball 2,5% 1,0% t n vay Khai b 2,1% 0,3% Khai b -20% 0% -20% Khai b -20% 0% -20% - 84 - n K ch b n ng xe d Khai b -30% 0% -30% L Khai b 2,0% 1,0% L Khai b Ball 5,0% 1,0% Khai b Crystal Ball 0% 70% 70% - 85 - a BETON Theo H xu t D c ki n ngh c v 27 cb c PPP, v n BOT k t h p BT t l y h t ng v i nh s D - m b o t i thi u b ng 30% ph n v n khu v c ng ph n tham gia c aD nv n t i thi u ph v i 3.822,30 t B ng m c ng m b u ngu n v n t aD i c PPP (30%*70%) = (70%*70%) = Ngu n: Th ng nh s - 18.201,41 5.460,42 3.822,30 8.918,69 30% 21% 49% vi - V 28 n so v i ngu n v n 1.791,18 t c ph n v c nh s l v n ch - i thi u 10% ph n v n c BOT v i v y, cb 27 c theo i iv id cb ol c BOT v i v c ph c Th 28 BETON (2012, tr.10), , tr.105-108), , BETON p nh , BETON ,T ph xu t d - 86 - ng tk D c- Th uD uD t t mD (ch (ch Ngu tr.103 ph ik c - Th ng , GS E&C , - 87 - md cD c - Th Tuy n d c D Ngu i (2012) Ngu tr.142 md cD (ch ph ik , c - Th , GS E&C - 88 - m cu i D t i khu v c C u Th m cu i D t i c u Th (ngu n: Google earlth) Ngu tr.113 m cu i D (ch t i c u Th ph ik c - Th Khoa (2006, GS E&C ... ch cho nh ng ho v B ng 4.4 t D D 31,40 54,69 2029 Chi 49,90 2035 Chi 60,06 2041 Chi Ngu v tc D th B ng 4.4 (t 2023 Chi ng c a D cg i c 2017 Chi o 82,64 2018 2019 33,92 2024 40,93 2025 89,57... v ng m nh v m mu n tri c h t ph i mc at ch cp aD i chi t kh hi n t i b ng su t chi t kh u ng s vay nn i chi t kh u v hi n t i b ng su t chi t kh 2.3.2 th c c a D mang l i cho n n kinh t Hi... id i n ph v t th i thu t chi t kh u, k t qu chi t kh hi n t hi n t nh NPV kh a NPV m , h p th hi n kinh t v i c a v n Su t chi t kh u ng s (WACC) n t chi t ng l n n n kinh t hi n t c sau: n t
