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International
Economics
Theory and Policy
SIXTH EDITION
Paul R. Krugman
Princeton University
Maurice Obstfeld
University
of
California, Berkeley
Boston San Francisco New York
London Toronto Sydney Tokyo Singapore Madrid
Mexico City Munich Paris Cape Town Hong Kong Montreal
Frete Universal Berlin
Wlrtschaftswissenschatilicte
Bibliothek
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Dear Mr Krugman, dear Mr Obstfeld,
I honestly advise you to offer us a downloadable PDF-Version of your book. It would be a
lot cheaper for you and us, and a lot easier to get. Maybe for the next time. Welcome to
the new Millenium!
For Robin
and
Leslie Ann
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International Economics: Theory and Policy
Copyright © 2003 by Paul R. Krugman and Maurice Obstfeld
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ISBN: 0-321-11639-9
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Education International. It is not to be re-exported and it is not for sale in the U.S.A.
or Canada.
03 02
BRIEF CONTENTS
Contents
vii
Preface xxii
1 Introduction
1
Part
I
International Trade Theory
9
2 Labor Productivity and Comparative Advantage:
The Ricardian Model 10
3 Specific Factors and Income Distribution 38
4 Resources and Trade: The Heckscher-Ohlin Model 67
5 The Standard Trade Model 93
6 Economies of Scale, Imperfect Competition,
and International Trade 120
7 International Factor Movements 160
Part
2
International Trade Policy
185
8 The Instruments of Trade Policy 186
9 The Political Economy of Trade Policy 218
10 Trade Policy in Developing Countries 255
11 Controversies in Trade Policy 276
Part
3
Exchange Rates
and
Open-Economy
Macroeconomics
293
12 National Income Accounting and the Balance of Payments 294
13 Exchange Rates and the Foreign Exchange Market:
An Asset Approach 324
14 Money, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates 357
15 Price Levels and the Exchange Rate in the Long Run 388
16 Output and the Exchange Rate in the Short Run 433
17 Fixed Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange Intervention 481
Part
4
International Macroeconomic Policy
53 I
18 The International Monetary System, 1870-1973 532
19 Macroeconomic Policy and Coordination under Floating
Exchange Rates 568
20 Optimum Currency Areas and the European Experience 604
21 The Global Capital Market: Performance
and Policy Problems 636
22 Developing Countries: Growth, Crisis, and Reform 665
vi Brief Contents
Mathematical Postscripts 707
Postscript to Chapter 3: The Specific Factors Model 708
Postscript to Chapter 4: The Factor Proportions Model 714
Postscript to Chapter 5: The Trading World Economy 717
Postscript to Chapter 6: The Monopolistic
Competition Model 726
Postscript to Chapter 21: Risk Aversion and
International Portfolio Diversification 728
Index 737
CONTENTS
Preface xxii
1 Introduction I
What
Is
International Economics About?
3
The Gains from Trade
3
The Pattern
of
Trade
4
How Much Trade?
5
The Balance
of
Payments
6
Exchange Rate Determination
6
International Policy Coordination
7
The International Capital Market
7
International Economics: Trade
and
Money
8
Part
I
International Trade Theory
9
2 Labor Productivity and Comparative Advantage:
The Ricardian Model
10
The Concept
of
Comparative Advantage
10
A One-Factor Economy
12
Production Possibilities
12
Relative Prices
and
Supply
14
Trade
in a
One-Factor World
14
Box: Comparative Advantage
in
Practice:
The
Case
of
Babe Ruth
16
Determining
the
Relative Price after Trade
16
The Gains From Trade
19
A Numerical Example
20
Relative Wages
22
Misconceptions about Comparative Advantage
23
Productivity
and
Competitiveness
23
The Pauper Labor Argument
24
Exploitation
24
Box:
Do
Wages Reflect Productivity?
25
Comparative Advantage with Many Goods
26
Setting
Up the
Model
26
Relative Wages
and
Specialization
27
Determining
the
Relative Wage
in the
Multigood Model
28
Adding Transport Costs
and
Nontraded Goods
30
Empirical Evidence
on the
Ricardian Model
31
Summary
34
VII
viii Contents
3 Specific Factors and Income Distribution 38
The Specific Factors Model 39
Assumptions of the Model 39
Box: What Is a Specific Factor? 40
Production Possibilities 40
Prices, Wages, and Labor Allocation 44
Relative Prices and the Distribution of Income 49
International Trade in the Specific Factors Model 50
Resources and Relative Supply 51
Trade and Relative Prices 52
The Pattern of Trade 53
Income Distribution and the Gains From Trade 54
The Political Economy of Trade: A Preliminary View 57
Optimal Trade Policy 57
Income Distribution and Trade Politics 58
Box: Specific Factors and the Beginnings of Trade Theory 59
Summary 60
Appendix: Further Details on Specific Factors 63
Marginal and Total Product 63
Relative Prices and the Distribution of Income 64
4 Resources and Trade: The Heckscher-Ohlin Model 67
A Model of a Two-Factor Economy 68
Assumptions of the Model 68
Factor Prices and Goods Prices 69
Resources and Output 72
Effects of International Trade Between Two-Factor Economies 75
Relative Prices and the Pattern of Trade 76
Trade and the Distribution of Income 76
Factor Price Equalization 78
Case Study: North-South Trade and Income Inequality 80
Empirical Evidence on the Heckscher-Ohlin Model 82
Testing the Heckscher-Ohlin Model , 82
Implications of the Tests 85
Summary 86
Appendix: Factor Prices, Goods Prices, and Input Choices 89
Choice of Technique 89
Goods Prices and Factor Prices 91
5 The Standard Trade Model 93
A Standard Model of a Trading Economy 94
Production Possibilities and Relative Supply 94
Relative Prices and Demand 95
The Welfare Effect of Changes in the Terms of Trade 98
Contents ix
Determining Relative Prices 98
Economic Growth: A Shift of the RS Curve 99
Growth and the Production Possibility Frontier 100
Relative Supply and the Terms of Trade . 101
International Effects of Growth 101
Case Study: Has the Growth of Newly Industrializing
Countries Hurt Advanced Nations? 103
International Transfers of Income: Shifting the RD Curve 104
The Transfer Problem 105
Effects of a Transfer on the Terms of Trade 105
Presumptions about the Terms of Trade Effects of Transfers 107
Case Study: The Transfer Problem and the Asian Crisis 108
Tariffs and Export Subsidies: Simultaneous Shifts in RS and RD 109
Relative Demand and Supply Effects of a Tariff 109
Effects of an Export Subsidy 110
Implications of Terms of Trade Effects: Who Gains and Who Loses? 111
Summary 113
Appendix: Representing International Equilibrium
with Offer Curves 117
Deriving a Country's Offer Curve 117
International Equilibrium 118
6 Economies of Scale, Imperfect Competition,
and International Trade 120
Economies of Scale and International Trade: An Overview 120
Economies of Scale and Market Structure 122
The Theory of Imperfect Competition 123
Monopoly: A Brief Review 123
Monopolistic Competition 126
Limitations of the Monopolistic Competition Model 131
Monopolistic Competition and Trade 132
The Effects of Increased Market Size 132
Gains from an Integrated Market: A Numerical Example 133
Economies of Scale and Comparative Advantage 136
The Significance of Intraindustry Trade 139
Why Intraindustry Trade Matters 140
Case Study: Intraindustry Trade in Action: The North
American Auto Pact of 1964 141
Dumping 142
The Economics of Dumping 142
Case Study: Antidumping as Protectionism 145
Reciprocal Dumping 146
The Theory of External Economies 147
Specialized Suppliers 147
Labor Market Pooling 148
Knowledge Spillovers 149
Contents
External Economies and Increasing Returns 150
External Economies and International Trade 150
External Economies and the Pattern of Trade 150
Trade and Welfare with External Economies 151
Dynamic Increasing Returns 152
Box: Tinseltown Economics 153
Summary 155
Appendix: Determining Marginal Revenue 158
7 International Factor Movements 160
International Labor Mobility 161
A One-Good Model Without Factor Mobility 161
International Labor Movement 162
Extending the Analysis 163
Case Study: Wage Convergence in the Age of Mass Migration 165
Case Study: Immigration and the U.S. Economy 166
International Borrowing and Lending 167
Intertemporal Production Possibilities and Trade 167
The Real Interest Rate 168
Intertemporal Comparative Advantage 169
Direct Foreign Investment and Multinational Firms 169
Box: Does Capital Movement to Developing Countries Hurt
Workers in High-Wage Countries? 170
The Theory of Multinational Enterprise 172
Multinational Firms in Practice 173
Case Study: Foreign Direct Investment in the United States 175
Box: Taken for a Ride? 177
Summary 177
Appendix: More on Intertemporal Trade 181
Part 2
International Trade Policy 185
8 The Instruments of Trade Policy 186
Basic Tariff Analysis 186
Supply, Demand, and Trade in a Single Industry 187
Effects of a Tariff 189
Measuring the Amount of Protection 190
Costs and Benefits of a Tariff 192
Consumer and Producer Surplus 192
Measuring the Costs and Benefits 195
Other Instruments of Trade Policy 196
Export Subsidies: Theory 197
Case Study: Europe's Common Agricultural Policy 198
Contents xi
Import Quotas: Theory 200
Case Study: An Import Quota in Practice: U.S. Sugar 200
Voluntary Export Restraints 202
Case Study: A Voluntary Export Restraint in Practice:
Japanese Autos 203
Local Content Requirements 203
Box: American Buses, Made in Hungary 204
Other Trade Policy Instruments 205
The Effects of Trade Policy: A Summary 206
Summary 206
Appendix I: Tariff Analysis in General Equilibrium 210
A Tariff in a Small Country 210
A Tariff in a Large Country 212
Appendix II: Tariffs and Import Quotas in the Presence
of Monopoly 214
The Model with Free Trade
M
214
The Model with a Tariff 215
The Model with an Import Quota 216
Comparing a Tariff and a Quota 216
9 The Political Economy of Trade Policy 218
The Case for Free Trade 218
Free Trade and Efficiency 219
Additional Gains from Free Trade 219
Political Argument for Free Trade 221
Case Study: The Gains from 1992 221
National Welfare Arguments Against Free Trade 223
The Terms of Trade Argument for a Tariff 223
The Domestic Market Failure Argument Against Free Trade 224
How Convincing Is the Market Failure Argument? 226
Box: Market Failures Cut Both Ways: The Case of California 227
Income Distribution and Trade Policy 229
Electoral Competition 229
Collective Action 230
Modeling the Political Process 231
Who Gets Protected? 232
Box: Politicians for Sale: Evidence from the 1990s 233
International Negotiations and Trade Policy 234
The Advantages of Negotiation 235
International Trade Agreements: A Brief History 237
The Uruguay Round 239
Trade Liberalization 239
From the GATT to the WTO 240
Benefits and Costs 241
Box: Settling a Dispute—and Creating One 242
Preferential Trading Agreements 243
xii Contents
Box: Free Trade Area versus Customs Union 244
Box: Do Trade Preferences Have Appeal? 245
Case Study: Trade Diversion in South America 246
Summary 247
Appendix: Proving that the Optimum Tariff
Is Positive 252
Demand
and
Supply
252
The Tariff
and
Prices
252
The Tariff
and
Domestic Welfare
253
10 Trade Policy in Developing Countries 255
Import-Substituting Industrialization
256
The Infant Industry Argument
256
Promoting Manufacturing Through Protection
258
Case Study:
The End of
Import Substitution
in
Chile
260
Results
of
Favoring Manufacturing: Problems
of Import-Substituting Industrialization
261
Problems
of the
Dual Economy
263
The Symptoms
of
Dualism
263
Case Study: Economic Dualism
in
India
264
Dual Labor Markets
and
Trade Policy
264
Trade Policy
as a
Cause
of
Economic Dualism
267
Export-Oriented Industrialization:
The
East Asian
Miracle
267
The Facts
of
Asian Growth
268
Trade Policy
in the
HPAEs
269
Box: China's Boom
270
Industrial Policy
in the
HPAEs
270
Other Factors
in
Growth
271
Summary
272
I I Controversies in Trade Policy 276
Sophisticated Arguments
for
Activist Trade Policy
276
Technology
and
Externalities
277
Imperfect Competition
and
Strategic Trade Policy
278
Case Study: When
the
Chips Were
Up 282
Globalization
and
Low-Wage Labor
283
The Anti-Globalization Movement
284
Trade
and
Wages Revisited
285
Labor Standards
and
Trade Negotiations
287
Environmental
and
Cultural Issues
288
The
WTO
and
National Independence
288
Case Study:
The
Shipbreakers
of
Alang
289
Summary 290
[...]... The Mechanics of a Reserve Currency Standard The Asymmetric Position of the Reserve Center The Gold Standard The Mechanics of a Gold Standard Symmetric Monetary Adjustment under a Gold Standard Benefits and Drawbacks of the Gold Standard The Bimetallic Standard The Gold Exchange Standard Summary 486 487 488 489 490 508 510 510 511 512 512 513 513 514 515 516 516 517 Appendix I: Equilibrium in the Foreign... Chapter 21: Risk Aversion and International Portfolio Diversification An Analytical Derivation of the Optimal Portfolio A Diagrammatic Derivation of the Optimal Portfolio The Effects of Changing Rates of Return 708 708 710 712 714 714 715 715 717 717 717 717 718 719 7 21 7 21 722 723 724 726 Index 6 81 684 687 687 689 689 6 91 692 728 728 729 732 737 XXI PREFACE At the start of the twenty-first century, international. .. size and the diversity of its resources, relies less on international trade than almost any other country CHAPTER I Introduction igure 1- 1 Exports and Imports as a Percentage of U.S National Income Exports, imports (percent of U.S national income) 14 13 12 11 10 Exports 9 8 7 6 5 4 T I T l I I TV 19 60 19 65 I I I I I i i i i i i ii I I I I I I I I ! I I I I I I I II 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 5 2000 19 70 19 75 1 9... the Yen Kept Rising? International Interest Rate Differences and the Real j: 376 377 378 378 380 3 81 383 384 389 389 390 3 91 392 392 394 396 400 402 404 404 405 406 408 408 409 411 411 412 415 416 419 Exchange Rate Real Interest Parity Summary Appendix: The Fisher Effect, the Interest Rate, and the Exchange Rate under the Flexible-Price Monetary Approach 16 4 21 423 424 430 Output and the Exchange Rate... theory of international trade, and Part Two (Chapters 8 through 11 ) applies trade theory to the analysis of government policies toward trade The second half of the book is devoted to international monetary issues Part Three (Chapters 12 through 17 ) develops international monetary theory, and Part Four (Chapters 18 through 22) applies this analysis to international monetary policy ... Income Accounting and the Balance of Payments 296 306 307 309 310 310 312 312 313 313 314 316 320 Exchange Rates and the Foreign Exchange Market: An Asset Approach 324 Exchange Rates and International Transactions Domestic and Foreign Prices Exchange Rates and Relative Prices The Foreign Exchange Market The Actors Box: A Tale of Two Dollars Characteristics of the Market Spot Rates and Forward Rates... The Revised Exchange Rate Mechanism The Theory of Optimum Currency Areas Economic Integration and the Benefits of a Fixed Exchange Rate Area: The GG Schedule Economic Integration and the Costs of a Fixed Exchange Rate Area: The LL Schedule 605 607 609 610 612 613 613 615 616 616 617 618 620 xix XX Contents The Decision to Join a Currency Area: Putting the GG and LL Schedules Together What Is an Optimum... Currency Reform Initiatives, 19 69 -19 78 The European Monetary System, 19 79 -19 98 German Monetary Dominance and the Credibility Theory of the EMS The EU "19 92" Initiative European Economic and Monetary Union The Euro and Economic Policy in the Euro Zone The Maastricht Convergence Criteria and the Stability and Growth Pact The European System of Central Banks Box: Designing and Naming a New Currency The... class and the exciting issues that dominate current research and policy debates That gap has widened dramatically as the importance of international economic problems and enrollments in international economics courses— have grown This book is our attempt to provide an up-to-date and understandable analytical framework for illuminating current events and bringing the excitement of international economics. .. Conflict over America's Monetary Standard During the 18 90s The Interwar Years, 19 18 -19 39 The German Hyperinflation The Fleeting Return to Gold International Economic Disintegration Case Study: The International Gold Standard and the Great Depression The Bretton Woods System and the Internationa] Monetary Fund Goals and Structure of the IMF Convertibility Internal and External Balance under the Bretton . Economy
717
Supply, Demand,
and
Equilibrium
717
World Equilibrium
717
Production and Income
717
Income, Prices,
and
Utility
718
Supply, Demand,
and. Tariff 10 9
Effects of an Export Subsidy 11 0
Implications of Terms of Trade Effects: Who Gains and Who Loses? 11 1
Summary 11 3
Appendix: Representing International
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