Better Air Quality Workshop - Hong Ko ng, December 2002 1 Worldwide Worldwide Fuel Quality Trends Fuel Quality Trends - Focus on Asia - Focus on Asia Liisa Kiuru Director, Asia International Fuel Quality Center Hart Downstream Energy Services email:lkiuru@chemweek.com www. IFQC .org Better Air Quality Workshop - Hong Ko ng, December 2002 2 International Fuel Quality Center International Fuel Quality Center  What is the International Fuel Quality Center (IFQC)?  A specialized member service that provides comprehensive information and concise analysis to members on pertinent actions and issues facing the transportation industry worldwide.  The service focus and emphasis is on automotive fuel quality, vehicle and engine related standards, and the health and environmental legislative and regulatory pressures leading these changes  Who is IFQC?  Currently: over 75 Global Refining, Automotive and Technology Companies and Governmental Organizations (more than 350 leading executives)  Working on the national, regional and international stage to facilitate dialogue and information exchange between transport related industries and governments Better Air Quality Workshop - Hong Ko ng, December 2002 3 International Fuel Quality Center International Fuel Quality Center Better Air Quality Workshop - Hong Ko ng, December 2002 4 Presentation Overview Presentation Overview  Drivers of Fuel Quality Developments  Automotive Fuel Quality Trends & Market Developments (USA, EU and Asia)  Fuel Quality Monitoring  Alternative Fuels  APEC project Better Air Quality Workshop - Hong Ko ng, December 2002 5 World’s Automotive Fuel Market World’s Automotive Fuel Market F u e l s p e c i f i c a t i o n s  L e a d  S u l f u r  D i s t i l l a t i o n  A r o m a t i c s  O c t a n e / C e t a n e  A d d i t i v e s  O x y g e n a t e s E n g i n e t e c h n o l o g i e s • D i r e c t I n j e c t i o n • H y b r i d s • F u e l c e l l s A l t e r n a t i v e f u e l s • B i o - f u e l s • L P G • C N G • G a s t o L i q u i d • H 2 E n v i r o n m e n t • G l o b a l • C o u n t r y • R e g i o n a l • L o c a l P o l i t i c s R e f i n i n g I n d u s t r y & t e c h n o l o g y E c o n o m y E n e r g y S e c u r i t y L o c a l E c o n o m i c S i tu a t io n • go v e r n m e n t a l i n te r e s t • ta x e s • F u el a d u l te r a tio n • av a i la b il it y E n g i n e E x h a u s t A f t e r - t r e a t m e n t T e c h n o l o g i e s I n d u s t r y C o m p e t i t i o n W H O & K y o t o • a i r q u a l i t y s t a n d a r d s Better Air Quality Workshop - Hong Ko ng, December 2002 6 World’s Automotive Fuel Market World’s Automotive Fuel Market WWFC Dir 98/70: 2000 Euro III Dir 98/70: 2005 Euro IV CARB Phase 2: 1996 CARB Phase 3: 2003 Category 3 Aromatics, vol%.max 42 35 30 35 35 Olefins, vol%, max 18 18 10 10 10 Benzene, vol%, max 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.0 Oxygen, wt%, max 2.7 2.7 1.8 - 3.5 1.8 - 3.5 2.7 Sulfur, ppm, max 150 50 (10) 80 60 / 30 30 RVP, kPa 60 / 70 60 / 70 48 44 - 50 45-60 * Lead, g/l, max none none 0.0013 0.0013 none Dir 98/70: 2000 Dir 98/70: 2005 CARB current Category 3 Polyaromatics, vol%, max 11.0 11.0 - 2.0 Sulfur, ppm, max 350 50 (10) 500 30 Cetane number, min 51 51 48 55 Density @ 15 °C, kg/m 3 845 845 820 - 870 820-840 Distillation, T95, °C, max 360 360 - 340 * depends on ambient temperature and season EU USA GASOLINE DIESEL Better Air Quality Workshop - Hong Ko ng, December 2002 7 Worldwide Consumption; Worldwide Consumption; Transportation Sector Transportation Sector Consumption for Transportation in Asia, 1990-2020 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1990 1998 1999 2005 2010 2015 2020 Millions of Barrels of Oil per Day Source : Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA) GASOLINE DIESEL JET FUEL RESIDUAL FUEL Better Air Quality Workshop - Hong Ko ng, December 2002 8 Automotive Market Automotive Market Better Air Quality Workshop - Hong Ko ng, December 2002 9 Gasoline & Diesel Demand (2000) Gasoline & Diesel Demand (2000) GASOLINE DIESEL Source: FACTS-EWCI Databook Gasoline/Diesel Demand in Asian countries (2000) 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Australia China India Indonesia Japan Malaysia Pakistan Philippines Singapore South Korea Taiwan Thailand Vietnam Other Better Air Quality Workshop - Hong Ko ng, December 2002 10 Demand & Import/Export Demand & Import/Export Gasoline+Diesel (2000) Gasoline+Diesel (2000) Source: FACTS-EWCI Databook Diesel: Demand and Import / Export 0 400 800 1200 1600 Australia Brunei China India Indonesia Japan Malaysia New Zealand Pakistan Philippines Singapore South Korea Taiwan Thailand Vietnam Other 0 400 800 1200 1600 Demand Export Import 1 000 b/d [...]... and punitive element  EU  Only one fuel quality legislation  proposed EU standards (FQMS) not mandatory, no policing structure  lack of FQM in southern countries  Asia Fuel specifications not as developed in many countries Fuel quality monitoring legislation lacking in many countries Fuel adulteration big problem Better Air Quality Workshop - Hong Ko 14 Alternative Fuels  CNG / LPG  Ethanol... of refineries in region  Match supply and demand and forecast supply security up to 2012  Review APEC member economies policies on alternative fuels and forecast how each will impact clean fuel supply Better Air Quality Workshop - Hong Ko 18 APEC Clean Transportation Fuels Supply Security Study Preliminary Conclusions & Highlights  Asia Pacific refining currently in severe economic downturn  Chinese... Singapore * Phillippines New Zealand Malaysia Indonesia * India * Hong Kong China * Brunei ^ Australia Japan * USA Papua New Guinea ^* Source: IFQC USA (California) EU 0 Better Air Quality Workshop - Hong Ko Source: IFQC 13 Fuel Quality Monitoring  Differences between the different country and regional approaches  US  Comprehensive legislation on cleaner fuels (RFG, MSAT, diesel/gasoline sulphur rule... Harmonization with international fuel standards will continue, albeit slowly  Korea, Japan &Taipei, China likely to continue to lead drive toward cleaner fuels Better Air Quality Workshop - Hong Ko 19 Thank you! Any Questions? Liisa Kiuru Director, Asia International Fuel Quality Center email: lkiuru@chemweek.com www.IFQC.org Better Air Quality Workshop - Hong Ko 20 ... region  Tightening of fuel specs & demand growth will absorb any existing overcapacity by 2006  By 2006, the region’s supply demand/balance will be extremely tight for all products, particularly if some member economies delay refining investments  Substantial investment (US$10 billion) will be required to keep pace with demand for cleaner fuels beyond 2006  Harmonization with international fuel. .. Canada Chile PR C (China) Hong Kong Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Mexico Better Air Quality Workshop - Hong Ko New Zealand Papua N Guinea Peru Philippines Russia Singapore Chinese Taipei Thailand United States Viet Nam 17 APEC Clean Transportation Fuels Supply Security Study Project Objectives  Study current and planned specifications for transportation fuels in APEC region  Study supply capabilities... e-diesel  Biodiesel  Fuel Cell  Gas-to-liquids Better Air Quality Workshop - Hong Ko 15 Road Transportation Fuels World 2000 1,550 Mtoe* *Not including petrochemical sector, airplanes Alternative Fuels 27 Mtoe (1.7%) Diesel 600 Gasoline* 950 *including MTBE LPG EtOH Natural Gas Bio: Diester ETBE Source: IFP / Axens Better Air Quality Workshop - Hong Ko 16 APEC Clean Transportation Fuels Supply Security... Thailand * Taiwan * South Korea * Singapore * Phillippines New Zealand Malaysia Indonesia * India * Hong Kong China * Brunei ^ Australia Japan * USA Papua New Guinea ^* Source: IFQC USA (California) EU 0 Better Air Quality Workshop - Hong Ko 12 Diesel Sulfur Levels – now and in the future 5,500 NOTE: * Future specifications are only proposed ^ Industry limits 5,000 4,500 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 Sulphur (ppm)... gPb/l, more than 0.15 gPb/l Policy options to support lead phase out: Mandatory phase out by certain date, fuel taxes and other incentive policies, unleaded fuel dispenser nozzle, mandating unleaded pumps, mandate vehicle design for unleaded gasoline Better Air Quality Workshop - Hong Ko 11 Gasoline Sulfur Levels – now and in the future NOTE: * Future specifications are only proposed ^ Industry limits 2,000 . Better Air Quality Workshop - Hong Ko ng, December 2002 1 Worldwide Worldwide Fuel Quality Trends Fuel Quality Trends - Focus on Asia - Focus on Asia Liisa. Air Quality Workshop - Hong Ko ng, December 2002 3 International Fuel Quality Center International Fuel Quality Center Better Air Quality Workshop - Hong