... -3 , -2 , and -1 indicates that the slopes inthe o¤-election years are not statistically indistinguishable from zero. The same holds fortests of + k, for k =-4 , -3 , -2 , and -1 . Thus, ... instrument for the e¢ cacy of politically-induced lending: the electoral cycle induces asupply shock uncorrelated with other confounding factors.23Most agricultural loans are short-term credit, for ... indicators for election cycle, Skst: The simplest model of patronage wouldposit that greater support for the majority party leads to increased credit. The moststraightforward test for this...