assessing financial vulnerability an early warning system for emerging markets phần 8 docx

... the Europeanexchange ratemechanism (ERM)crisis andthe stronggrowth performanceof the Australian economy in 19 98 coincident with a large depreciationof the Australian dollar.1. For a comparison ... multiple channels ofcontagion may be operating at once.Institute for International Economics | http://www.iie.com 88 ASSESSING FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY Table 7.3 Comparison of inflation and growth ... scores are 16.65 and 4.32,5. See Kaminsky and Reinhart (2000) for details on the pattern of trade.Institute for International Economics | http://www.iie.com 86 ASSESSING FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY Table...

assessing financial vulnerability an early warning system for emerging markets phần 1 ppt

... Goldstein 1998a; Corsetti, Pesenti,and Roubini 19 98; BIS 19 98) . Thailand’s commitments in the forwardexchange market and South Korea’s lending of international reserves tocommercial banks meant that ... Demirgu¨c¸-Kunt and Detragiache (19 98) , Eichengreen and Rose (19 98) , IMF(1998c), Kaminsky and Reinhart (1999), and Lindgren et al. (1996).Institute for International Economics | http://www.iie.com2 ASSESSING ... spreads or changesin sovereign credit ratings may not anticipate financial crises well. 8 For one thing, market participants may not have timely, accurate, and compre-hensive information on...

assessing financial vulnerability an early warning system for emerging markets phần 2 potx

... of nearly $50 billion for Mexico in 1994-95; over $120 billion for Thailand,Indonesia, and SouthKorea in 1997- 98; over $25 billion for Russia and Ukraine in 19 98; andanother $42 billion for ... See Leiderman and Thorne (1996) and Calvo and Goldstein (1996) for an analysis of theMexican crisis.4. These alternative explanations of the Asian crisis are discussed in BIS (19 98) , Corsetti,Pesenti, ... weak and when an extensive9. For example, the studies of banking crises in emerging markets by Caprio and Klingebiel(1996a, 1996b), Goldstein and Turner (1996), Honohan (1995), and Sundararajan...

assessing financial vulnerability an early warning system for emerging markets phần 3 pot

... 1 985 1990December 1994 1994 1994Chile 1976September 1 981 1 981 Colombia July 1 982 1 982 1 982 April 19 98 Czech Republic 1994 n.a. n.a.Denmark March 1 987 n.a. 1 988 Egypt January 1 980 1 980 1 981 January ... datesK&R(1999) and G, K, & R C & K IMF (1996Country (beginning) (1996) and 1998a & b)Argentina March 1 980 1 980 1 980 May 1 985 1 985 1 985 1 989 December 1994 1995 1995Bolivia October 1 987 1 986 ... 10Domestic credit/GDP 88 90Interest rate differential 89 81 Excess M1 balances 89 88 Exports 10 10Foreign direct investment/GDP 16 12General government consumption/GDP 90 88 Imports 90 80 Lending-deposit...

assessing financial vulnerability an early warning system for emerging markets phần 4 pot

... broad range of indicators in anticipating crises.Institute for International Economics | http://www.iie.com36 ASSESSING FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY banking crises, the maximum ranking change is ... with a considerablelag and hence tend to be of less use from an early warning standpoint.Table 3.6 presents the lead times for our monthly indicators—both for currency and banking crises. In the ... inflows/GDP 0. 38 43 36 .8 18. 5Current account balance/ 0. 38 38 36.1 18. 4investmentOverall budget deficit/GDP 0.47 52 26.9 12.1Current account balance/GDP 0.50 33 29.3 12.1Central bank credit...

assessing financial vulnerability an early warning system for emerging markets phần 5 doc

... otherInstitute for International Economics | http://www.iie.com50 ASSESSING FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY Table 4.4 Do ratings predict banking crises for emerging markets? (probit estimation with robust standard ... countries can tap international financial markets. In theiranalysis, they focus on the sovereign ratings of Moody’s and Standard &Poor’s; in what follows, we examine the behavior around financial ... spread 73 0. 28 Interbank debt growth 80 0.35Interest rate on deposits 80 0.47Rate of growth on loans 58 0.72Net proﬁts to income 60 1.14Operating costs to assets 40 1.59Change in banks’ equity...

assessing financial vulnerability an early warning system for emerging markets phần 6 ppt

... 14.56 3Thailand* 35 8 44 2 13.36 5Turkey 35 8 33 3 8. 04 10Uruguay 28 12 11 5 4 .88 18 Venezuela 31 9 22 4 6.02 16Note: An asterisk (*) denotes the country had a currency crisis, a banking crisis, ... to remain an elusive task for academics, financial marketparticipants, and policymakers. Recent events, however, have highlightedthe importance of improving upon a system of early warnings. ... signals for currency and banking crises in emerging markets, June 1996-June 1997Currency crises Banking crisesCountry Weighted signals Rank Weighted signals RankArgentina 5.41 16 7. 98 10Bolivia...

assessing financial vulnerability an early warning system for emerging markets phần 7 pdf

... gen-eral. For example, the quadratic probability score declines from 0.024 and1.620 for the naive forecast of currency crises to 0.0 18 and 1. 589 for thereal exchange rate forecast during tranquil and ... Radelet and Sachs(19 98) , who argue these crises are the byproduct of a financial panic.6. It is noteworthy that finance companies had been receiving substantial assistance fromthe central bank ... commer-cial banks. US banks had large loan exposure to Latin America in the early 1 980 s, much in the way that Japanese banks did during the Asiancrisis of 1997. The need to rebalance the overall...

assessing financial vulnerability an early warning system for emerging markets phần 9 ppsx

... RESULTS AND CONCLUDING REMARKS 97Table 8. 1 Currency and banking crises: best-performing indicatorsCurrency crises Banking crisesHigh-frequency indicatorsReal exchange rate Real exchange rateBanking ... Economics | http://www.iie.com96 ASSESSING FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY tendency, the better-performing leading indicators anticipated between50 and 100 percent of the banking and currency crises that occurredover ... bothcurrency and banking crises in emerging economies. In addition, wefind no empirical support for the view that sovereign rating changes haveled financial crises in our sample countries rather than...

assessing financial vulnerability an early warning system for emerging markets phần 10 pptx

... International Financial Statistics (IFS), the Interna-tional Finance Corporation’s (IFC) Emerging Market Indicators, and theInstitute for International Economics | http://www.iie.com1 08 ASSESSING FINANCIAL ... of Sachs,Tornell, and Velasco (1996).11. See Berg and Pattillo (1999), The Economist (19 98) , Furman and Stiglitz (19 98) , IMF(1998c), and Wyplosz (1997, 19 98) .Institute for International Economics ... crises that never 8. The Malaysian crisis would probably best be regarded as beginning in March 19 98, when the central bank announced losses at Sime Bank and elsewhere and when MalaysianPresident...

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