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Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 1 pptx

Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 1 pptx

Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 1 pptx

... NPV and IRR 10 7Capital Budgeting 11 1Customer Net Present Value 12 1 CHAPTER 8 Modeling Financial Statements 12 5Deterministic Model 12 5Tornado Chart and Sensitivity Analysis 12 6 Crystal Ball ... Chart 12 9Conclusion 12 9 CHAPTER 9Portfolio Models 13 2Single-Period Crystal Ball Model 13 2Single-Period Analytical Solution 13 4Multiperiod Crystal Ball Model 13 5 CHAPTER 10 Value at Risk 14 0VaR ... itContentsix CHAPTER 11 Simulating Financial Time Series 14 7White Noise 14 7Random Walk 14 9Autocorrelation 15 0Additive Random Walk with Drift 15 4Multiplicative Random Walk Model 15 7Geometric Brownian...
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Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 7 pptx

Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 7 pptx

... +3Ztfor t = 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5, where each Ztis drawn from a 11 6 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 7 .11 Spider chart.analysis of the relationships between the randomly generated ... error from the means of$6.02 and 20% shown in Figures 7 .15 and 7 .16 . This is a manifestation of Jensen’s 10 8 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL normal(0 ,1) distribution independently ... are 10 6 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 7 .1 Spreadsheet segment to model annuity with deterministiccash flows of − $10 0 at the end of Year 0, and $30 at the end of Years 1 through...
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Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 8 pptx

Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 8 pptx

... up with a goodmodel for defining sales assumptions. 12 8 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 8.4 Crystal Ball model for income statement in Sengupta2.xls. Cells J6,J7, J10,andJ12 ... J10,andJ12 are Crystal Ball assumptions, and I3 is a forecast.FIGURE 8.5 Tornado chart for Crystal Ball model in Sengupta2.xls.The values of the Crystal Ball assumptions were varied from the 1stpercentile ... 1stpercentile to the 99th percentile in five equally spaced steps. 12 6 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 8 .1 Historical income statement in Sengupta.xls.income statement line...
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Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 2 ppsx

Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 2 ppsx

... lognormal with mean 1. 1 517 and standard deviation 0.2746. Cells C12:C 41 representthe total annual return on bonds for years 1 through 30. Each year’s returnon bonds is lognormal with mean 1. 0585 and ... to stocks varies from 10 percent to 90 percent in steps of 10 percent.FIGURE 2 .10 Step 1 in using the Decision Table tool. 18 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 2.5 Frequency ... segment of thismodel is shown in Figure 2 .1. Note that rows 14 through 40 are hidden tosave space. 11 22 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 2.9 Dialog window showing settings...
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Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 3 potx

Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 3 potx

... we will add assumptions and a forecast to thedeterministic model in AKGolf.xls to create a stochastic model.30 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL TABLE 3 .1 Stochastic assumptions ... isuniform with a minimum of $355, and a maximumof $395. The average end-of-season sales price is uniform with a minimum of $17 5, and a maximum of $19 5. Table 3 .1 summarizes the Crystal Ball assumptions ... to offer for sale in its retail stores and affiliated pro shops. It plans to2832 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 3.4 Defining the demand assumption for the Alaskan Golf purchase...
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Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 4 pot

Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 4 pot

... islognormally distributed.46 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 4 .11 Triangular(90 ,10 0 ,11 0) assumption used for modeling revenue inFigure 4 .12 .FIGURE 4 .12 Spreadsheet model for ... variables in thecells directly above them, C5:C10, F5:F16,andI5:I22, respectively. The cells50 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 4 .17 Distribution of sum of 30 days’ sales. Each ... 60 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL This section gives a brief description of the procedures used by Crystal Ball forfitting distributions. Suppose a random sample of...
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Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 5 pot

Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 5 pot

... 40 percent.FIGURE 5 .13 Crystal Ball forecast for NPV1 for the case of no flexibilityin the Project.xls model.82 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 5 .14 Spreadsheet segment ... (1) Begin checking in the second quarter of year, and abandon theproject if three consecutive quarters of cash flow below −$6 occur; and (2) expand if88 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND ... through K are hidden.94 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL different values for Abandon Point and seven different values for Expansion Point.If we used more values with Decision Table,...
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Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 6 docx

Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 6 docx

... FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL and wish to do things Excel doesn’t already do, or you wish to do extra processingduring each trial of the simulation, see the Crystal Ball User ... here.FIGURE 6.8 Run Preferences Statistics tab.96 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 6 .1 Run Preferences Trials tab. Crystal Ball executes the simulation cycle automatically, ... increase the precision of theestimate of the mean. 10 0 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 6.5 Run Preferences Sampling tab.these random numbers has the capability to produce over...
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Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 9 pps

Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 9 pps

... problem: 13 8 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL TABLE 9.4 Optimal asset allocations and sustainablewithdrawal rates for two planning horizons.Horizon LCS SCS CB USGB Spend30-year .25 .12 ... her 13 4 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL TABLE 9.3 Spearman correlation matrix for annual totalreturns during the period 19 26–2002 for four assetclasses.LCS SCS CB USGBLCS 1 SCS ... problem, and gives financial planners an idea of how to use Crystal Ball and OptQuest todemonstrate to their clients the risks involved in retirement planning. 13 6 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL...
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Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 10 potx

Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 10 potx

... Portfolio Loss inFigure 10 .1. 14 4 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 10 .4 Crystal Ball model to find VaR and CVaR.normally distributed, but truncated at 10 0 percent. The model ... operations will lose $1 million over a 1- day horizon, then on average the trading operation should lose 14 0 14 6 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL TABLE 10 .2 VaR and CVaR forindependent ... distributions with Location Parameter =1andShape Parameter = 1. Cell D4 is a Crystal Ball forecast representing the loss on the first opportunity,Loss1 = X 1 .CellD5 is a Crystal Ball forecast...
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