... 167slope 74, 79, 92 , 94 small-sample problems 2 29, 390 smoothness 13, 67, 152–3, 161, 199 specific-to-general modelling 187standard deviations 48 9, 54, 57–64standard errors 60–4, 88 93 stationaritydifference ... estimator 79, 104, 131, 133intercept 74, 79, 83, 89, 94 , 104–7regression approach 388slope 74, 79, 92 , 94 standard error estimator 88 93 out-of-sample, see forecasting outliers 46, 48, 1 69 71, ... 270, 274, 284–5error 2 69 71ex ante 299 , 396 , 398 , 410ex post 290 , 365–6, 396 –7, 411in-sample/out-of-sample 124, 2 59, 274judgemental 11, 415–33model-based 293 , 414– 39 naive 258, 273, 277–8,...