... Typically, this has been of little value for the selection of forecasting methods. Forecasters should not use measures of fit (such as R2 or the standard error of the estimate of the model) because ... judges' estimates of confidence are well calibrated. For example, when weather forecasters say that there is about 60 percent chance of rain, it rains 60 percent of the time. This suggests ... Journal of the American Statistical Association, 61, 658-696. Lawrence, M. J., Edmondson, R. H. and O'Connor, M. J. (1985), “An examination of the accuracy of judgmental extrapolation of time...