... areat a lossregardingwheretogo for furtherinformation.Insum,wehave a dangerouscombinationof (a) officialstatementsthepubliccannottrust and (b)criticalinformationthepubliccannotfind,leavingthefieldwideopentorumor and contagion.Ratherthanmakingitpossible for consumerstorationallyshifttheirfundsfromweakertostrongerinstitutions,bankingregulatorshavecreatedanenvironmentthat,in a deepeningdepression,maydriveconsumerstowithdrawtheirfundsfromthebankingsystemas a whole.Initseffortstoprotectallbanks and depositors,thegovernmentisultimatelyprotectingnone.Initszealtoavertpanicatallcosts,itmayactuallyberenderingthesystemmorevulnerableto a farmorecostlypanic.31PartVGovernmentRescuesHaveBothFailedtoResolvetheDebtCrisis AND WeakenedtheBankingSystemWiththeexceptionofLehmanBrothers,thefederalgovernment’sresponsetothedebtcrisishasbeentoavoidlargefinancialfailuresatallcosts.Moreover,theconsensusviewisthattheLehmanfailurewasresponsible for theimplosionofglobalcreditmarketsinthefallof2008,reinforcingthe“toobigtofail”doctrine.Inlinewiththisdoctrine,multiplenovelstrategieshavebeenimplemented and manymoreproposed.However,mosttendtofallunderoneofthethreefollowinggeneralapproaches:(1)government‐backedmergersorbuyouts,(2)governmentpurchasesoftoxicpaper, and (3)nationalization.Belowaretheirgeneralgoals,alongwithourcommentsontheirlikelyconsequences.Approach#1.Government‐BackedMergers and BuyoutsTraditionally,when a financialinstitutionfails,theapplicableregulatoryauthoritiesstepin,takeovertheoperation, and firetheseniormanagement.Theythenseektofind a buyer for thecompany,rehabilitatetheinstitutionunderreceivership,orselltheassets.However,underthetoo‐big‐to‐faildoctrine,theauthoritiesbypassstandardbankruptcyprocedures:Theybroker a shotgunmergerorbuy‐out,typicallyassumingsomeresponsibility for futurelossesiftheassetssinkfurtherorthedealturnssour.Allpartiesinvolvedinthetransaction—theseller,thebuyer and theregulators—recognizethattheinstitutionhasfailed.Buttheytacitlyagreetomaintainthefictionithasnot.Accordingly,inrecentmonths,federalauthoritieshavearm‐twistedlargefinancialconglomeratestoacquirefailingcompaniesinthemidstofthedebtcrisis,turning a blindeyetotheenormousrisks,whileofferingthecarrotofmuchlargermarketshares.Threemegabanks—BankofAmerica,JPMorganChase and WellsFargo—standoutasprimeexamples and serveasimmediatelyrelevantcasestudies.CaseStudy#1.BankofAmericaIn2007,astherealestatebubblewasbursting,BankofAmericasteppeduptoassistCountrywideFinancial,making a $2billioninvestmentinwhatwasthenthenation’slargestresidentialmortgagelenderbyvolume.However,asCountrywide’slossesmountedthroughthesecondhalfof2007,itbecameclearthatBankofAmericawouldhavetopourinmorecapitaltoprotectitsinvestment.InJanuary2008,theCharlotte,N.C.bankinggiantagreedtopurchaseCountrywide for anadditional$4billion,transformingBankofAmericaintothelargesthomemortgagelender and mortgageservicerintheworld.CompletedonJuly1,itwasthelargestmergerinthehistoryofthemortgageindustry.Justtenweekslater,onSeptember15,2008,inthewakeofthecollapseofLehmanBrothersHoldings,BankofAmericaembarkedon a farlargerdeal,agreeingtoacquireMerrillLynch&Co.inanall‐stocktransactionvaluedat$50billionwhentheagreementwassigned,withBankofAmericareceiving a $15billionTARPinfusiononOctober28. ... Intotal,thethriftsweredependenton$192.3billioninhotmoneydeposits,representing26.19%ofthetotal,withmanyindividualinstitutionsmorereliantonhotmoneythantheindustryas a whole.Third,governmentofficialshavehistoricallyrecognizedthat,inthelongterm,expandedFDICcoveragelimitscanbecounterproductive,raising—ratherthandiminishing—systemicrisk.Itwas for thisreason, for example,thatNationalEconomicCouncilchiefLawrenceSummersspokeoutinoppositiontohigherFDICcoveragelimitswhenhewasTreasurySecretaryinthelastyearoftheClintonAdministration,stating“suchanincreasewouldbeill‐advised and wouldrepresent a seriouspolicyerrorthatcouldincreasesystemicriskbyerodingmarketdiscipline.”Itwasalso for thisreasonthatFormerFedChairmanAlanGreenspanstatedthatmosteconomistsconsideredpriorcoverageincreasestobe a badmistake,” and thatany new proposaltodosowouldalsobe a majorpolicymistake.”Similarly,webelievethemostrecentincreaseinFDICcoveragelimitwasyetanotherrushtojudgmentbypolicymakerslackingthecriticaldataneededtosupportprudentdecisions for thebenefitoftheeconomyas a whole.Fourth,mostrecentbankrunshavenotbeencausedbyinsureddepositors.Theyhavebeencausedbytheexodusoflarge,uninsuredinstitutionaldepositorswhoaretypicallythefirsttorush for coverattheearliesthintoftrouble.That’sthemainreasonWashingtonMutual, America’s largestsavings and loan,lostover$16billionindepositsinitsfinaleightdaysin2008.That’salso a majorreasonWachoviaBanksuffered a similarrunsoonthereafter.Duringthemanyfinancialfailuresofthe1980s and 1990s,thestorywassimilar:werarelysaw a runonthebankbyindividuals.Rather,itwasuninsuredinstitutionalinvestorsthatjumpedshiplongbeforemostconsumersrealizedtheshipwassinking.Fifth,evenifthegovernmentcancalmnervousdepositors,ithasnocontrolovershareholders,who,inrecentmonths,havedemonstratedthattheycanswiftlydrive a company’sstockintothegutter.Theinvestorpanic,inturn,sendsthesignaltodepositorsthattroubleisbrewing,greatlydiminisheseachbank’smarketcapitalization, and makesitmoredifficult for theinstitutiontoraiseadditionalcapital.Sixth,banks and bankingregulatorshavesofarmadeitdifficult for consumerstodiscriminatebetweenweak and stronginstitutions,asfollows:1. ... Bank USAJPMorgan ChaseCitibankBank of AmericaWachoviaData: OCCThischartanswersthequestion: For eachdollarofcapital,howmuchexposuredoeseachbankhavetothepossibledefaultsofitsderivativestradingpartners? And itshowsthatamongcommercialbanks,allbutoneofthefivelargestplayersareexposedtothetuneofover100percentoftheircapital,analarminglevelevenintheabsenceof a financialcrisisordepression.Belowis a moredetailedanalysisofthetwolargestofthefivebankscoveredbytheOCCreport—Citibank and JPMorganChase—alongwith a summaryreviewoftheremainingthree.CitibankNA(NV)isthenation’sthirdlargestcommercialbank,with$1.2trillionintotalassets.Despiteitslargesize,however,WeissResearchplacedCitibankonitslistofbanksatriskinAugustof2008.Belowisanupdatedsummaryofouranalysisthatformedthebasisofthisdecision.1....