Ngày tải lên :
22/03/2014, 23:20
... increasehasbeennotable,
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Thisisnottodenysuccessfuleffortsbyanumber of countries,includingChina,toexpandmarketsinother
EME’s. Of coursethisstillleaves the broaderquestion of the robustness of the totality of thosemarketsin the
event of aseriousdownturnin the AME’s.
73
ThisproblemisanalogoustothatfacedbyJapanesecorporationsin the 1990’s,aftermanyyears of debt
financedinvestmentwhichprovedunprofitable.Koo(2003)stronglycontendsthat the weakness of investment
spendinginJapanin the 1990’swasduetothis“balancesheeteffect”,andwasnotdueto
ashortage of loans
causedbyaweakenedbankingsystem.
74
SeeBIS(2012)p29forafullerdocumentation.AlsoseeMcKinsey(2010) who identify the householdsectorin
five of the fourteencountriestheyconsiderashavingahighprobability of futuredeleveraging.TheyidentifySpain,
the US, the UK,CanadaandKorea.While the householdsectorsinBrazil,Russia,
ChinaandIndiawerenotjudged
tobeoverleveraged,notethat the dataconsideredextendedonlyto2009.Thus the reportmissed the recent
sharpincreasesinhouseholddebtlevelsinthosecountries.
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TettG(2012)“Sizecanbedeadlyinalowrateworld”FinancialTimes17May
TurnerP.(2011)“Is the long‐terminterestrateapolicyvictim,apolicyvariableorapolicylodestar”–BIS
WorkingPaper367,Basel,December
WaldropM.M.(1992)“Complexity”–LemonandSchuster
Paperbacks–NewYork
WedelJR.(2009)“ShadowElite”–BasicBooks,NewYork
WhiteW.R(2004)“ArechangesinFinancialStructureExtendingSafetyNets?”–BISWorkingPaper250,
Basel
WhiteW.R(2006a)“IsPriceStabilityEnough?”–BISWorkingPaper205,April
White ... is
importanttonotethatKeyneshimselfwasnotconvinced of the effectiveness of easymoneyin
restoring real growth in the face of a Deep Slump. This is one of the principal insights of the
GeneralTheory.
21
Incurrentcircumstances,twoquestions ... The UnstableWeb of Contracts”–Presentation at the INETConference,Berlin,
March
LoweP.(2012)“
Bank Regulationand the Future of Banking”–Remarksto the AustralianConference of
Economists,Melbourne,11July
MaddaloniAandPeydroJ‐L(2010) Bank Risk‐Taking,securitisation,supervisionandlowinterestrates...