Ngày tải lên :
22/03/2014, 23:20
... term
expectedcosts.Undoubtedlythiswouldbeverypainful,but(bydefinition)lesspainfulthan the
alternativeofnotdoingso.JohnKennethGalbraithtoucheduponasimilarpracticalconundrum
someyearsagowhenhesaid
20
“Politics is not the artof the possible.
It is choosingbetween the unpalatableand the disastrous”.
Thismightwellbewhere the centralbanksof the AME’sarenowheaded,absent the vigorous
pursuitbygovernmentsof the alternativepoliciessuggestedabove.
B. ... upon
whichtheyincreasinglyrely
126
.
MembersofClass2alsoprofit,especiallyasinterestratesrise,sincetheyarenetsavers
(creditors)withpredominantlyshorttermassets.Class3memberssufferfromhigherinterest
ratesas the recoverycontinues,butto the extenttheyhaveborrowedtobuyrealassets
(especiallyhouses)theyalsoseemtogainas the pricesofthoseassetsrise.Rajan(2010)
contendsthatgovernmentsactivelyencouragedthisprocess
127
toallowlowerincomepeople
tocontinuetoconsume,evenastheirincomesandjobprospectswerebeingfurthersqueezed
bytechnologicaldevelopmentsandglobalization.
In the bustphaseof the cycle,assetpricescollapseandClass1speculatorscanlosepart
(thoughrarelyall)of the wealthaccumulatedearlier.
Sharplyeasiermonetaryconditionsease
theirburdenmaterially.Again,there is lobbyingtoensurethat the otherformsofsupport
promisedearlierbygovernmentsactuallymaterializes.MembersofClass2bear the main
burdenofthistransferfromcreditorstodebtors,eitherdirectly(astheirfinancialassetsearn
verylittle)orindirectlyduetolowerpensionsandhigherinsurancecost.Asdebtors,members
ofClass3alsobenefitfromultraeasymonetarypolicy
128
.Overall,however,theysuffer the
mostbecausetheirnetwealth is verylow,theiraccesstofurthercreditdisappears,andthey
are the mostliabletolosetheirjobsin the downturn.Ironically,ifRajan’sthesis is correct, the
policiesoriginallydesignedtohelp the poorhavehurtthem the most.
Thisstory is highlystylizedandperhapsnottrueincertainrespects.Nevertheless,itseemstrue
enoughtowarrantfurtherinterdisciplinaryresearchinto the potentialredistributive
implicationsofultraeasymonetarypolicy.
D. ... be
58
AsEME’sbegintoindustrialize,theyinitiallyhave the benefitofrapidurbanization(asagriculturalproductivity
rises)and the internationaltransferoftechnology.Overtimebothofthese“catchup“factorssupportinggrowth
becomelessimportant.
59
It is importanttonotethat the debatewaswith the Keynesof the “Treatise”andnotyet the Keynesof the
“GeneralTheory”.In the TreatiseonMoney,Keynescalled for monetaryauthoritiestotake“extraordinary”,
“unorthodox”monetarypoliciestodealwith the slump.Kregel(2011)p1,contends
that The unorthodoxpolicies
thatKeynesrecommendsareanearlyperfectdescription”of the ultraeasymonetarypoliciesfollowedinJapan,
andmorerecentlyinothercountries.Recall,asnotedabove,thatKeynes’enthusiasm for suchmonetarymeasures
hadfadedby the timeof the GeneralTheory.
19
“malinvestments”tobuildupinbothphasesofsuccessivecreditcycles.
65
Thesedevelopments
aredocumentedbelow.
1)...