... below the world average. Sub-Saharan Africa and North Africa andthe Middle East languished far below the world average. Eastern Europe andthe former Soviet Union lost enormous ground during the ... S. Ho, and Kevin J. Stiroh (2005), Information Technology andthe American Growth Resurgence, Cambridge, The MIT Press. Jorgenson, Dale W., and Kazuyuki Motohashi (2005), Information Technology ... Timmer, and Ypma (2003, updated 2005). 15See Jorgenson and Motohashi (2005). 16WITSA stands for the World InformationTechnologyand Services Alliance. Other important sources of data include the...
... than a thousand companies and reveals some interesting results. The third essay applies the model developed in the second essay to study the difference in the adoption and pay-off of the Internet ... which uses its Web store front to take customer orders, but which must rely heavily on people and manual processes to fulfill the order efficiently and to the satisfaction of the customer. Thus ... involves processes and strategies both inside and outside the organization. These firms and their trading partners must deploy new business models, redesign the entire set of business processes...
... in the late 1970s. The difference between the FAO projection 60 The Frictionless Economyandthe Forest Industry Hub In a connected economy practically everything can be marketed and sold using ... Recommended catalogue entry: Information Technologyandthe Forest Sector. Report by the IUFRO Task Force on InformationTechnologyand the Forest Sector,” jointly organized by the International Union ... problem, and there are technical and practical limits to using recovered paper. Moreover, recovered paper will also inevitably end up in the landfill. Besides the landfill problem, there are all the...
... strategic high-growth industry because of the fundamental role they play in information technologyand high -technology weaponry. They view the development of the semiconductor industry as being vital ... passenger trips between the offshore islands and FujianProvince, including 144,234 from the offshore islands to the mainland, and 8,200 from the mainland to the offshore islands as of February 29,2004 ... between the two offshore islands andthe mainland. As part ofthat expansion of the mini-three links, the Taiwanese government alsoexpanded the list of products that the offshore islands can...
... littlemorebrightly.Theseare the employeesof the automakerbeingrefreshedwithnewlight.Anothertransferofwealthhastakenplace. The autoworkersinturnmakepurchasesfromotherbusiness,small and large, andthe lightcontin-uestoparadethrough the tunnel.We also know that behind the walls of the tunnelthere are more businesses and interconnections ... way“takingover.”There is little attention given to the moremundane and immediatethreatsto the jobmarket andthe overall economy. Perhaps the technologists just assumethat once thetechnology ... ob-viouslydon’tcaterdirectlyto the globalmassmarket,theyarenone-thelessintegratedinto the activitythatoccursin the tunnel, and theyare heavily impacted by the overall health and vitality of the massmarket. THE LIGHTS IN THE TUNNEL / 12 CopyrightedMaterial–Paperback/Kindle...
... biotechnology and genetics could be considered atype of information science because it is focused on cataloging and understanding theinformation inourDNA. THE LIGHTS IN THE ... were the firstcommerciallyavailablepersonalcomputerstohaveagraphical interface and a mouse. The university had pur-chaseddozensofthesenewcomputers, and studentswerenow using them in their courses rather than the main-frame. The original ... aregrowingdark.Nowweseethatmanyof the verybrightestlightsin the tunnelfinallyfeel the impact and alsobegintolosetheirlight. The ownersof the businessesin the tunnelareseeingmuchoftheirwealthgraduallydrainaway. The ...
... madeevenmorechallengingby the factthat the objectscouldbeinmanypossibleorientationsorconfigurations.Consider the simplecaseofapairofsunglassessittingonatable. The sunglassesmightbeclosedwith the lensesfacingdown,orwith the lensesup.Orperhaps the glassesareopen with the lenses oriented vertically. Or maybe one side of the glassesisopen andthe other closed. And, ofcourse, the glassescouldberotatedinanydirection. And perhapstheyare ... securitieswerethensoldtobanks and financialinstitutionsallover the world,with the understandingthattheywereverylowriskinvestments.When the subprimeborrowersstarteddefaulting, the valueof the mortgage-backed securitiesplunged, andthe derivativesdidnotworkasexpected.Inmanycasesitwasdifficultorimpossibletocalculatetheirvalue.Inaddition,financialinstitutionshadengagedinmanyothercomplexinterrelationships ... hasquicklyattracted the noticeof the Securities and ExchangeCommission and mayresultinnewregulation.Astheseexamplesshow,wecanexpectthat the rateofchange andthe volatilityofnearlyeverythingaround us will...
... food—all of these and countlessthousandsofotherstructures and chemicalsthatcompriseourbodies and make us functionareproteins. And theyareallconstructedthroughnanotechnology.Itislikelythat the coming“nanotech”revolutionwillbegin ... demand will in-crease, andtheeconomy will therefore produce moregoods and services.Inotherwords, the samenumberofworkerswillbeemployedbuttheywillproducemore.32 The ... the checkoutislealtogether. The specterofnearfullyautomatedsupermarkets and chainretailstoresiscauseforgenuineconcern.Thesearenow the jobsoflastresort.Theseare the jobsthatworkersdisplacedfromotherindustriestakebecausethereisnoth-ingbetteravailable.Lookbackat the tableonpage59.Wehavealreadymentionedthat3.5millioncashiersarepoten-tiallyatrisk. The tableshowsanother4millionretailsales-persons and 2.3millionlaborers and freight,stock and ma-terialmovers,aswellas1.7millionstockclerks and orderfillers.Whatnewjobscouldwepossiblyfindforallthesepeople?Readanyarticlein the popularpressabout the fieldofrobotics and itspotentialfutureimplications, and youwillalmostinvariablyfindasentencepointingoutthat“in the future,...
... bysixmonthsorso.Likewise,recoveryfromarecessionisveryoftenprecededbyarisein the stockmarket.This predictive feature also applies to all the othervarious markets with which we interact, including the housingmarket, the jobmarket, andthe massmarketforgoods ... purchasing the goods they are producing. Oreveniftheycanaffordtobuythoseproducts,theyareun-likelytodo sobecausetheyaremuchmoreinterestedin THE LIGHTS IN THE TUNNEL ... within their capabilities, then how willthey acquire the income necessary to create the demandthatinturndrivesproduction?Ifweconsider the singular-ityinthiscontext,thenisitreallysomethingthatwillnec-essarilypush us forwardexponentially?Orcoulditinac-tualityleadtorapideconomicdecline?** The technologistswhospeculateabout the singularitydon’tseemtooconcerned...
... todecline.Rememberthatwearetalkinghereaboutaverageworkers.Toget the graphabove,youmighttake the dis-tributionofincomesin the UnitedStates and thenelimi-nateboth the richest andthe poorestpeople.Thengraph the averageincomeof the remaining“typical”people (the bulk of consumers) ... byindustries,productionbecomesmoreefficient.Thisresultsinsomelossofjobs,butitalsoresultsinlowerpricesforgoods and services.Inotherwords,itputsmoremoneyinconsumers’ pockets. These consumers then go out and buyallkindsof things, and so the resultisincreasedde-mandfor the productsproducedbyalltypesofindustries.Some ... the advancednationsof the worldrich. The reasonforthisgoesbackto the economists’ex-planationfor the “Ludditefallacy”whichwediscussedin the previous chapter. As new technology is adopted byindustries,productionbecomesmoreefficient.Thisresultsinsomelossofjobs,butitalsoresultsinlowerpricesforgoods and services.Inotherwords,itputsmoremoneyinconsumers’...
... the name,butofwhichtheywillhearagreatdealin the yearstocome—namely,technologicalunemployment.Thismeansunemploymentduetoourdiscoveryofmeansofeconomising the useoflabouroutrunning the paceatwhichwecanfindnewusesforla-bour.*Keynesrecognizedthat,in1930,technologicalunem-ploymentwouldbeatemporaryphenomenon and that the economy wouldeventuallyabsorb the excessworkers. The mainthrustofhisessaywastoattempttolookmuchfur-*Today,wheneconomistsdiscuss the causesof the GreatDepression,they tend tofocusalmostexclusively on the monetary policyof the FederalReserve.Whilethereislittledoublethat the overlyrestrictivepolicies ... Amazonronment:includingtoxicpollution,overuseofpublicre-sources, and, of course, the climate change effects asso-ciated with the emission of carbon dioxide and othergreenhousegasses.3. Technology Productionisalsolimitedby the sophisticationof the ma-chines,processes and techniquesthatareavailable.Ihavearguedherethat,as technology advances,itwillultimatelybecomeindependentoflabor.Machineswillevolveto the pointwheretheyarenolongertoolsusedbyworkers,butinsteadautonomousproducers.4. ... whichmeansdesireforaproductorservicecombinedwith the ability and willingnesstopayforit.Nobusinesswillinvestin production unless there is either existing market de-mandor the reasonableexpectationofsuchdemandin the foreseeablefuture. The idea that...
... wisdomisthatafencehasbeenerectedwithinoursociety.On the lush, garden side of the fence, are workers who havestrongeducations and training.Thesepeoplearebeneficia-riesof theinformation age.On the toxicwastelandsideof the ... Wecanexpectthattechnologicaladvancewillgiverisetoentirelynewindustriesin the future.However, the realityisthatfewifanyofthesearelikelytobelaborintensive.Bytheirverynature,thesenewindustrieswilltendtorelyon informationtechnology ... the case?Isthereafundamentalreasonwhyacceleratingtech-nologyshouldimpactnearlyeveryaspectofourlives—butnotimpact the way theeconomy works?AsIpointedoutinChapter2,advancing informationtechnology becauseitenabled the creation and distributionoffinancialderiva-tives—hascertainlyplayedanimportantrolein the severi-tyof the currenteconomiccrisis.Isuspectthatthisisjusta...
... 1LarryPageonAIatGoogle:Web:http://news.cnet.com/2100-11395_3-6160372.htmlvideo:http://news.cnet.com/1606-2_3-6160334.html?tag=mncol;txt2Kurtzweilhasa$20,000betwithMitchKaporthatacomputerwillpass the “TuringTest” and thusexhibithuman-likeintelligence(seelastsectionof the Appendix)by the year2029.Web:http://www.longbets.org/1 Chapter 1: The Tunnel 3 US CensusBureau,2004,web:http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/releases/archives/education/004214.html4Percentageofworld’spopulationinpoverty,see the graphbasedonWorldBankdataathttp://www.globalissues.org/article/26/poverty-facts -and- stats.Myfocushereisnotonextremepoverty,whichismeasuredat1-3dollarsperday,butonanincomelevelthatpreventspeoplefrombeingviablemassmarketconsumers.5DorisKearnsGoodwin,TeamofRivals: The PoliticalGeniusofAbrahamLincoln,Simon and Schuster,2005,p77.6“Howdeeply the curseofslavery…”,LetterfromWilliamH.SewardtoAlbertH.Tracy,June25,1835.AlbertH.TracyPapers,NewYorkStateLibrary,AlbanyNY(ascitedinTeamofRivals,p77). ... acentrallyplanned economy, and perhaps most chillingly, the overthrow of govern-ments and a“dictatorshipof the proletariat.”In the wakeof the collapse of communism, these ideas ... Thisbookhasprimarilybeenconcernedwith the potentialeconomicimpactofwhatresearchersin the fieldofartifi-cialintelligencewouldcallnarrowAI.Inotherwords,ma-chines and softwarethatarecapableofsophisticatedanal-ysis,decisionmaking and reasoningwithinarelativelynar-rowfieldofapplication.Suchmachinesarenotreallyintel-ligentinanymeaningfulsense—buttheyarehighlycom-petentatperformingspecificcomplextasks and maywellexceed the capabilityofahumanworker.NarrowAIapplicationsarealreadyinwidespreaduse;expertsystemssuchas the softwarethatcanautonomous-lypilot and landairliners and manyof the advancedfea-tures built into Internet search engines and multiplayerrole playing...
... securitieswerethensoldtobanks and financialinstitutionsallover the world,with the understandingthattheywereverylowriskinvestments.When the subprimeborrowersstarteddefaulting, the valueof the mortgage-backed securitiesplunged, andthe derivativesdidnotworkasexpected.Inmanycasesitwasdifficultorimpossibletocalculatetheirvalue.Inaddition,financialinstitutionshadengagedinmanyothercomplexinterrelationships ... madeevenmorechallengingby the factthat the objectscouldbeinmanypossibleorientationsorconfigurations.Consider the simplecaseofapairofsunglassessittingonatable. The sunglassesmightbeclosedwith the lensesfacingdown,orwith the lensesup.Orperhaps the glassesareopen with the lenses oriented vertically. Or maybe one side of the glassesisopen andthe other closed. And, ofcourse, the glassescouldberotatedinanydirection. And perhapstheyare ... hasquicklyattracted the noticeof the Securities and ExchangeCommission and mayresultinnewregulation.Astheseexamplesshow,wecanexpectthat the rateofchange andthe volatilityofnearlyeverythingaround us will...
... food—all of these and countlessthousandsofotherstructures and chemicalsthatcompriseourbodies and make us functionareproteins. And theyareallconstructedthroughnanotechnology.Itislikelythat the coming“nanotech”revolutionwillbegin ... the checkoutislealtogether. The specterofnearfullyautomatedsupermarkets and chainretailstoresiscauseforgenuineconcern.Thesearenow the jobsoflastresort.Theseare the jobsthatworkersdisplacedfromotherindustriestakebecausethereisnoth-ingbetteravailable.Lookbackat the tableonpage59.Wehavealreadymentionedthat3.5millioncashiersarepoten-tiallyatrisk. The tableshowsanother4millionretailsales-persons and 2.3millionlaborers and freight,stock and ma-terialmovers,aswellas1.7millionstockclerks and orderfillers.Whatnewjobscouldwepossiblyfindforallthesepeople?Readanyarticlein the popularpressabout the fieldofrobotics and itspotentialfutureimplications, and youwillalmostinvariablyfindasentencepointingoutthat“in the future, ... accidents;howeverovertimetheycouldevolveinto technology ca-pableofdriving the carautonomously—justasjetairlinersnowroutinelyfly and landwithoutassistance.While thetechnology forautomated...