... aregrowingdark.Nowweseethatmanyof the verybrightest lights inthe tunnelfinallyfeel the impactandalsobegintolosetheirlight. The ownersof the businesses inthe tunnelareseeingmuchoftheirwealthgraduallydrainaway. The ... that the hopes of even the remainingbrighter lights aregraduallyevaporatinginto the newemptinessof the tunnel. THE LIGHTSINTHE TUNNEL / 36 CopyrightedMaterial–Paperback/Kindle ... ourDNAmoleculeandidentifyingeachgenetookatremend-ousamountofcomputationalresources,andgridcompu-tingplayedasignificantrole in this. The geneticinformationobtainedthrough the projectisstored in databasesandcanbeaccessedbyscientistsandresearchersvia the Internet. The resultisafantasticsourceofknowledgethatcontinuestobeanalyzedandwhichiscertain to result in innumerable future advances inthe fieldsofgenetics,bio-engineeringandmedicine.An especially interestingdevelopment inthe field ofgridcomputingis the ideathatunusedpoweronvirtuallyanycomputerconnectedto the Internetcanbeintegratedintoavoluntarygridanddeployedtosolvebigproblems.Mostcomputers,iflefton,donothingatallduringlargeblocksoftime,especiallyovernight. The ideatotiethesecomputerstogetherbyhavingtheirownersdonateunusedcomputingpowerhassprungup in anumberofplaces.Stanford...
... cashdrawer.Ifyouwere in oneof the lanesfurtherout,however,thingswerefarmoreinteresting.Yousealedyourmoney,paperwork,checkbook,etc.intoaplasticcylinderandthendropped the cylinder into the providedopening. The cy-linder then traveled through an underground tube—propelled I think by some ... a security. Theycould invertit,soyougainedif the securityfell in value.Theycouldeventrytocapture the rewardifaninvestmentincreased in value,buteliminate the riskifitwentdown—oratleasttheythoughttheycould.Ashousingpricescontinuedtoclimbduring the bub-ble, ... andcomputerfields, the paceofchangeisunprecedentedandcontinuestodriverelentlesslytoward the totaleliminationofjobs.Whatweareseeingisclearempiricalevidenceof the geometricincrease inthe powerofcomputertechnol-ogy.Traditional Jobs: The “Average” Lightsinthe Tunnel All the attentionbeingfocusedonnewjobsbeingcreatedbytechnologytendstodistractusfrom the realitythat the bulkof the ...
... associated with thisprocess is in collecting, copying, collating and faxing in- formation. The intellectualportionof the job—eitherap-provingordenying the loan—isprobablyalreadyessential-lyhandledbyacomputer.Throughout the economy,there*Formoreonroboticsanditspotentialimpactonemploymentandon ... businessesover the Internet.UsingXML, the computersatamanu-facturingcompanycantalkdirectlyto the computersbe-longingto the company’ssuppliers. The continuingdrivetowardpaperlessdocumentsandseamlesscommunicationislikelytoeliminatemanyofthesehumaninterfacejobs in the comingyears. The Next “Killer App” Since the beginnings of the personal computer industry,computerhardwaresaleshaveoftenbeendrivenbyapar-ticularsoftwareapplicationsocompellingthatithasmoti-vatedcustomerstopurchase the machinerequiredtorunit.When the AppleIIwasintroduced in 1977,it ... different businessesover the Internet.UsingXML, the computersatamanu-facturingcompanycantalkdirectlyto the computersbe-longingto the company’ssuppliers. The continuingdrivetowardpaperlessdocumentsandseamlesscommunicationislikelytoeliminatemanyofthesehumaninterfacejobs in the comingyears.The...
... thatsucha business modelcould besustained inthe longrunonlyifwages in Chinaremainextremelylowindefinitely.Ifthatis the case,howwillChinasucceed in drivingdo-mesticconsumptionandachievingamorebalancedeconomywhichislessdependentonexports?Acceleration ... shouldersofAmericanandEuropeanconsumers.Andaswehavenotedagainandagain in thisbook,thoseWesternconsumersalldependonjobs.Ifautomationbe-ginstodramaticallyimpactemployment in China,whileat the sametimedemanddwindles inthe West—andcertain-lyif the catastrophiceventdescribed at the beginning ofthischapteroccurs—thenthiseconomicperpetualmotionmachineisgoingtocollapse.Givenallthis,whatcanwereallysayabout the futureofChina?Nearlyafourthof the world’spopulationlives in China;therefore,thereisnodoubtthatthiscountrywillcontinuetohavesignificant,andperhapsincreasing,influ-ence inthe decadestocome.However,simplyextrapolat-ingcurrenttrendsisveryunlikelytogiveanaccuratepro-jection.Chinaisgoingtobeheavilyimpactedbyaccelerat-ing ... developednationshasresulted in amassiveandirreversibleelimina-tionofjobs.* The realityisthat the manufacturingsectorisfollowing the samepath. In herbook,Rivolialsocitesevi-denceshowingthatmanyof the jobslost inthe U.S.tex-tileindustryare in factduetomachineautomationratherthanglobalization,andthatChina, in spiteofitslowwage*...
... todecline.Rememberthatwearetalkinghereaboutaverageworkers.Toget the graphabove,youmighttake the dis-tributionofincomes inthe UnitedStatesandthenelimi-nateboth the richestand the poorestpeople.Thengraph the averageincomeof the remaining“typical”people (the bulk ... capital intensive (the machinestheyemploywillbegintorunthemselves).Oncethishappens,theywillcol-lectivelybegintopumpmorepurchasingpowerfrom the riverthantheyreturntoit. The riverwillbegintorundry. In the caseofareal-worldriver,wewouldneverad-vocateallowingabusinessorindustrytopumpunlimitedquantitiesofwaterfrom the riverwithoutbearing the ap-propriate ... $1,081,000Canthisprocesscontinueforever?Aswesaw inthe previous chapter, automation technology is likely to in- creasinglyinvade the remaininglaborintensivesectorsof the economy.Whenthishappens,whatindustrieswillbelefttoabsorball the dislocatedworkers?Lookat the tableabove....
... The lights rotate in colorasjobsaresharedamong the workersfirstaffectedbyautomation. The green lights initiallyrepresentasmallminorityof the lights within the tunnel. Most peoplecontinue to beemployed in traditionaljobs.Ifweweretowatch the ac-tion inthe tunnelovertime,however,wewouldseethat THE ... problemandhavelinedupbehind the generalconceptofreform—althoughnoconsensushasyetbeenreachedonasolution.* The taxcodecouldbeusedtoprovideanincentiveforparticipation in ajobsharingscheme. Inthe previouschapterIsuggested the ideaof“progressive”deductionsforwagespaid. In asimilarfashion,high-erdeductionscouldbeprovidedtobusinessesthatagreedtoincorpo-ratejobsharingintotheirbusinessmodels. THE LIGHTSINTHE TUNNEL / 188 CopyrightedMaterial–Paperback/Kindle available @ Amazon in sustainedconsumerspending,vibrantdemandfornewproducts ... ontheirparticularinterestsandabilities,peoplepursuehighereducation,work inthe communityandmakechoicesthatbenefit the environmentwith the understandingthatdoingthesethingswillleadtoahigherincomeandabetterstan- THE LIGHTSINTHE TUNNEL / 180 CopyrightedMaterial–Paperback/Kindle...
... and mine it very deeply, not necessarily discovering every aspect of the domain but requiring that the various aspects be integrated with one another to produce a coherent whole. Even inthe ... officers represented in it. The system merely made no distinction between "all" and "any", and interpreted the final query to mean the But, you are probably thinking, those examples ... and interaction in which the system acts like a helpful, intelligent, knowledgeable assistant. In this situation, the user carries on a dialogue (perhaps using speech) using language in exactly...
... bales puffed to the loading gangways. There was the puffing and whistling of the donkeyengines as they hoisted into the big holds the goods intended for export.At the side of the steamer were ... and then Tom, grasping the steering wheel, turned on full power and jerked the releasing rope.Over the ground shot thesky racer, quickly attaining speed until, witha deft motion, the young inventor ... he finished, and leaving thesky racer inthe open space in front of the shed, he went inthe house to wash up, for his face and hands werebegrimed with dirt and oil."But the machine's...