financial modeling with crystal ball pdf
Tài liệu Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel doc
Ngày tải lên :
18/02/2014, 07:20
... shops. It plans to
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Financial Modeling
with Crystal
Ball and Excel
JOHN CHARNES
John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
10 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL
■
Crystal Ball gives approximate ... portfolio.
Financial Modeling
with Crystal
Ball and Excel
Introduction
5
FIGURE 1.1 Simple profit model in
Profit.xls. Cells C5:C7 are defined as
Crystal Ball assumptions. Cell C11 is a
Crystal Ball ... 249
Glossary 251
References 255
Index 263
Financial Modeling
with Crystal
Ball and Excel
JOHN CHARNES
John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Analyzing Crystal Ball Forecasts
27
PRESENTING THE RESULTS
The...
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Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 1 pptx
Ngày tải lên :
05/07/2014, 18:20
... 28
Simulation Modeling Process 28
Defining Crystal Ball Assumptions 29
Running Crystal Ball 32
Sources of Error 33
Controlling Model Error 35
CHAPTER 4
Selecting Crystal Ball Assumptions 36
Crystal Ball s ... Confererences.
xvii
Financial Modeling
with Crystal
Ball and Excel
JOHN CHARNES
John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Contents
Preface xi
Acknowledgments xv
About the Author xvii
CHAPTER 1
Introduction 1
Financial Modeling ... Data to Choose Distributions 54
Specifying Correlations 63
vii
10 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL
■
Crystal Ball gives approximate rather than exact solutions. This ‘‘limitation’’...
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Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 2 ppsx
Ngày tải lên :
05/07/2014, 18:20
... click Start. Crystal Ball will run 2,000 trials
for each of the nine allocations.
When Crystal Ball finishes its decision table analysis, you should see a new
worksheet with nine Crystal Ball forecasts ... 30
percent chance that you will actually accumulate the mean wealth or more.
26 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL
FIGURE 2.15 Overlay chart comparing accumulated value after 30 years ... Wealth greater than the corresponding monetary value on
the horizontal axis.
12 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL
FIGURE 2.1 Spreadsheet segment from Accumulate.xls showing accumulated...
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Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 3 potx
Ngày tải lên :
05/07/2014, 18:20
... simulation
with Crystal Ball can be regarded as a sophisticated form of ‘‘what-if’’ analysis, as
the program will keep track of all these changes during its run. Further, with Crystal
Ball it is ... cell
first Crystal Ball needs to recognize the location as a number cell. In Crystal Ball 7.2
and higher, when you attempt to define an assumption in an empty cell, a value of 0
Building a Crystal Ball ... and specifying Crystal Ball assumptions.
Building a Crystal Ball Model
31
FIGURE 3.2 Distribution gallery showing the triangular and
normal distributions. To see all of Crystal Ball s distributions,...
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Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 4 pot
Ngày tải lên :
05/07/2014, 18:20
... 60 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL
This section gives a brief description of the procedures used by Crystal Ball for
fitting distributions. Suppose ... Figure 4.24. For example, we chose to rank with the
FIGURE 4.27 Goodness-of-fit statistics for data in file Lognormal.xls.
52 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL
FIGURE 4.19 Mixture model ... the
68 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL
FIGURE 4.33 Calculate Correlation Coefficient dialog for cell H2 in
file PearsonSpearman.xls.
FIGURE 4.34 First step in using Batch Fit with...
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Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 5 pot
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05/07/2014, 18:20
... if
88 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL
FIGURE 5.21 Step 3 in using the Decision Table tool with the Project.xls model.
FIGURE 5.22 Results from using the Decision Table tool with ... > 0) ≈ 40 percent.
FIGURE 5.13 Crystal Ball forecast for NPV1 for the case of no flexibility
in the Project.xls model.
82 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL
FIGURE 5.14 Spreadsheet ... are truncated
71
84 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL
FIGURE 5.17 CB forecast window from Project.xls model showing
the possibility of expansion.
The Crystal Ball output in Figure...
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Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 6 docx
Ngày tải lên :
05/07/2014, 18:20
... for a complete list of unsupported functions
and the Crystal Ball Web site for updates on this feature.
102 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL
FIGURE 6.6 Run Preferences Speed tab.
Here ... 104 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL
and wish to do things Excel doesn’t already do, or you wish to do extra processing
during each trial of the simulation, see the Crystal Ball ... here.
FIGURE 6.8 Run Preferences Statistics tab.
96 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL
FIGURE 6.1 Run Preferences Trials tab.
Crystal Ball executes the simulation cycle automatically,...
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Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 7 pptx
Ngày tải lên :
05/07/2014, 18:20
... cash flow)
112 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL
FIGURE 7.6 ScooterNPV.xls spreadsheet model.
In the next section, we use this model to demonstrate the use of Crystal Ball s
Tornado ... deterministically, the
Sensitivity Analysis feature of Crystal Ball obtains its results through a statistical
120 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL
FIGURE 7.15 NPV Forecast for ScooterSimulation.xls.
FIGURE ... customer if he is retained that year. These are
106 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL
FIGURE 7.1 Spreadsheet segment to model annuity with deterministic
cash flows of −$100 at the end...
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Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 8 pptx
Ngày tải lên :
05/07/2014, 18:20
... This emphasizes the need to come up with a good
model for defining sales assumptions.
128 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL
FIGURE 8.4 Crystal Ball model for income statement in Sengupta2.xls. ... Cells J6,
J7, J10,andJ12 are Crystal Ball assumptions, and I3 is a forecast.
FIGURE 8.5 Tornado chart for Crystal Ball model in Sengupta2.xls.
The values of the Crystal Ball assumptions were varied ... 8.6 Sensitivity analysis chart for Crystal Ball model
in Sengupta2.xls.
CRYSTAL BALL SENSITIVITY CHART
Figure 8.6 shows a sensitivity chart for the Crystal Ball model for 2002–2006 for
the Vitex...
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Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 9 pps
Ngày tải lên :
05/07/2014, 18:20
... planners an idea of how to use Crystal Ball and OptQuest to
demonstrate to their clients the risks involved in retirement planning.
136 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL
5 percent. The ... following mathematical programming problem:
138 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL
TABLE 9.4 Optimal asset allocations and sustainable
withdrawal rates for two planning horizons.
Horizon ... stochastic, remaining lifetime horizon, the estimated median value of her
134 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL
TABLE 9.3 Spearman correlation matrix for annual total
returns during...
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Tài liệu Lý thuyết cơ bản về Crystal Ball pdf
Ngày tải lên :
20/01/2014, 23:20
... phỏng ta có thể
Phân tích rủi ro bằng Crystal Ball Trần quang Trung
1
GIỚI THIỆU MÔ PHỎNG BẰNG
CRYSTAL BALL
1. Mô phỏng Monte Carlo bằng Crystal Ball
Ví dụ:
Bạn định mua khu nhà phức ... tin cậy vào hộp Certainty và
nhấn Enter, Crystal Ball sẽ điều chỉnh mốc còn lại để được khoảng tin cậy theo
yêu cầu
Phân tích rủi ro bằng Crystal Ball Trần quang Trung
2
2. Cách định ... Choùn phaõn phoỏi thớch hụùp
Phân tích rủi ro bằng Crystal Ball Trần quang Trung
24
Phân tích rủi ro bằng Crystal Ball Trần quang Trung
20
Ta cũng có thể chọn khoảng...
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Tài liệu ANALOG BEHAVIORAL MODELING WITH THE VERILOG-A LANGUAGE- P1 pdf
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26/01/2014, 19:20
... Verilog.
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ANALOG
BEHAVIORAL MODELING
WITH THE VERILOG-A LANGUAGE
Please purchase PDF Split-Merge on www.verypdf.com to remove ... analog and
mixed-signal systems with the Verilog-A language.
Please purchase PDF Split-Merge on www.verypdf.com to remove this watermark.
Analog Behavioral Modeling With the Verilog-A Language
5.5
QPSK ... and
John Wynen of Research In Motion.
xvi
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ANALOG
BEHAVIORAL MODELING
WITH THE VERILOG-A LANGUAGE
by
Dan FitzPatrick
Apteq...
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Pro Excel Financial Modeling Building Models for Technology Startups pdf
Ngày tải lên :
07/03/2014, 18:20
... and completes our financial discussion with the creation of a Company
Balance Sheet and the application of financial ratio analysis to our modeling results.
Prerequisites
The financial models ... 193
CHAPTER 11 Modeling Valuation and Investment with the FIN Model 215
CHAPTER 12 Financial Reporting and Analysis Using the FIN Model 243
INDEX 269
www.it-ebooks.info
Pro Excel Financial Modeling: ... AND FINANCIAL MODELING FOR TECHNOLOGY STARTUPS
17
Thinking Critically About the Business and
Financial Model
Developing a financial model is an excellent exercise in critical thinking. Modeling...
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Health equity and financial protection streamline analysis with adept software pdf
Ngày tải lên :
22/03/2014, 16:21
... differentially affects
reporting by the poor and rich, with doctor visits declining with
income when measured using a weekly recall period but increasing
with income when using a monthly recall period.
9
This ... sophisticated features of ADePT are indicated below with an
asterisk. Users not familiar with the literature may wish to focus initially on
the sections without an asterisk. Except where stated, the ... Sector Inequalities with an Application to
Health Equity and Financial Protection: Part I
PART I
Health Outcomes,
Utilization, and
Benefit Incidence
Analysis
Health Equity and
Financial Protection
Adam...
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financial modeling for managers with excel applications
Ngày tải lên :
27/05/2014, 02:37
... important
concepts for anyone involved with financial transactions.
1.3 Simple interest, bills and other money market securities
The use of simple interest in financial markets is confined mainly ... policy.
Part I. Interest Rates and Foreign Exchange
42
Financial Modeling for Managers
What nominal rate compounded every month will equate with an effective
annual rate of 6.16778%? In other words, ... would even
want to. But pretty much all of us in the financial world will sooner or later have to
come to grips with two things. The first is basic financial math and models. The
second is spreadsheeting....
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