Ngày tải lên :
22/03/2014, 23:20
... is
importanttonotethatKeyneshimselfwasnotconvinced of the effectiveness of easy money in
restoring real growth in the face of a Deep Slump. This is one of the principal insights of the
GeneralTheory.
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Incurrentcircumstances,twoquestions ... increasehasbeennotable,
72
Thisisnottodenysuccessfuleffortsbyanumber of countries,includingChina,toexpandmarketsinother
EME’s. Of coursethisstillleaves the broaderquestion of the robustness of the totality of thosemarketsin the
event of aseriousdownturnin the AME’s.
73
ThisproblemisanalogoustothatfacedbyJapanesecorporationsin the 1990’s,aftermanyyears of debt
financedinvestmentwhichprovedunprofitable.Koo(2003)stronglycontendsthat the weakness of investment
spendinginJapanin the 1990’swasduetothis“balancesheeteffect”,andwasnotdueto
ashortage of loans
causedbyaweakenedbankingsystem.
74
SeeBIS(2012)p29forafullerdocumentation.AlsoseeMcKinsey(2010)whoidentify the householdsectorin
five of the fourteencountriestheyconsiderashavingahighprobability of futuredeleveraging.TheyidentifySpain,
the US, the UK,CanadaandKorea.While the householdsectorsinBrazil,Russia,
ChinaandIndiawerenotjudged
tobeoverleveraged,notethat the dataconsideredextendedonlyto2009.Thus the reportmissed the recent
sharpincreasesinhouseholddebtlevelsinthosecountries.
45
TettG(2012)“Sizecanbedeadlyinalowrateworld”FinancialTimes17May
TurnerP.(2011)“Is the long‐terminterestrateapolicyvictim,apolicyvariableorapolicylodestar”–BIS
WorkingPaper367,Basel,December
WaldropM.M.(1992)“Complexity”–LemonandSchuster
Paperbacks–NewYork
WedelJR.(2009)“ShadowElite”–BasicBooks,NewYork
WhiteW.R(2004)“ArechangesinFinancialStructureExtendingSafetyNets?”–BISWorkingPaper250,
Basel
WhiteW.R(2006a)“IsPriceStabilityEnough?”–BISWorkingPaper205,April
White ... be
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AsEME’sbegintoindustrialize,theyinitiallyhave the benefit of rapidurbanization(asagriculturalproductivity
rises)and the internationaltransfer of technology.Overtimeboth of these“catchup“factorssupportinggrowth
becomelessimportant.
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Itisimportanttonotethat the debatewaswith the Keynes of the “Treatise”andnotyet the Keynes of the
“GeneralTheory”.In the Treatiseon Money, Keynescalledformonetaryauthoritiestotake“extraordinary”,
“unorthodox”monetarypoliciestodealwith the slump.Kregel(2011)p1,contends
that The unorthodoxpolicies
thatKeynesrecommendsareanearlyperfectdescription” of the ultraeasymonetarypoliciesfollowedinJapan,
andmorerecentlyinothercountries.Recall,asnotedabove,thatKeynes’enthusiasmforsuchmonetarymeasures
hadfadedby the time of the GeneralTheory.
19
“malinvestments”tobuildupinbothphases of successivecreditcycles.
65
Thesedevelopments
aredocumentedbelow.
1)...