Table of Contents Cover Title Page List of Contributors Biographies Foreword Preface Reviews Introduction Overview 1.1 The Future (or ‘Tomorrow’s World’) of Cities 1.2 The Structure of the Book References Part I: Governance and Dynamics of Urban Retrofit Community Housing Retrofit in the UK and the Civics of Energy Consumption Overview 2.1 Challenges to Systemic Housing Retrofit 2.2 Community and Low Carbon Futures 2.3 Community Housing Retrofit 2.4 Community Housing Retrofit and the Civics of Low carbon Transitions References ‘City wide or City blind’? An Analysis of Retrofit Practices in the UK Commercial Property Sector Overview 3.1 Introduction 3.2 UK Commercial Property: Nature and Characteristics of Commercial Property 3.4 Research Findings 3.5 Conclusions and Discussion Acknowledgements References Performance Gap in ‘Deep’ Retrofit of Housing Overview 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Defining the Performance Gap 4.3 Methodology – Expert Interviews 4.4 Findings 4.5 Conclusions References Transforming the Commercial Property Market in Australians Cities Overview 5.1 Introduction 5.2 Green Roofs Defined 5.3 Retrofit Issues in Commercial Stock in Australian Cities 5.4 Drivers for Green Roofs 5.5 Transformation of the Commercial Property Stock 5.6 Valuation Issues 5.7 Retrofitting Investment to Date 5.8 Taxation Considerations 5.9 Contemporary Practices 5.10 Future Potential in Green Roof Retrofit 5.11 Conclusions Acknowledgements References Part II: Modelling Urban Transitions and Pathways Modelling Residential Retrofit Overview 6.1 Introduction 6.2 Context 6.3 Methodology 6.4 Results 6.5 Conclusions Acknowledgements References Weatherproofing Urban Social Housing for a Changing Climate Through Retrofitting Overview 7.1 Scope 7.2 The UK Housing Retrofit Challenge and Potential Unintended Consequences 7.3 Challenges and Opportunities for Social Housing Retrofit 7.4 The Building Envelope as a Climate Modifier 7.5 The Role of Seasonal Health Policy 7.6 South Islington: A Case Study 7.7 Conclusions Acknowledgements References What is Hindering Adaptation to Climate Change in English Suburbs, and What Would Help Facilitate Action? Overview 8.1 Introduction 8.2 What is the Suburban Retrofitting Problem? 8.3 Hot in the Suburbs? 8.4 How Does the Current Literature Explain Why Retrofitting Might Happen? 8.5 Conclusions References The Value of Foresight and Scenarios in Engineering Liveable Future Cities Overview 9.1 Introduction 9.2 Retrofitting the Underworld 9.3 The Foresight Future of Cities Project 9.4 Scenarios Acknowledgements References Part III: Steering and Navigating Sustainable Urban Transitions 10 Urban Sustainability Transition Overview 10.1 Introduction 10.2 Transitions as the Analytical Starting Point for Addressing Urban Transitions 10.3 Sustainability Transitions in Urban Areas 10.4 A Transition in the Urban Built Environment? 10.5 Transition Project ‘Energiesprong’ 10.6 Transition Management and the Built Environment 10.7 Outlook: Transitioning the City? References 11 Presenting Futures Overview 11.1 Introduction 11.2 UCL’s Grand Challenges 11.3 London 2062 11.4 Conclusions References 12 Framing New Retrofit Models for Regenerating Australia’s Fast Growing Cities Overview 12.1 Introduction 12.2 Current State, Future Trajectories and Retrofitting Challenges for Australia’s Largest Cities 12.3 The Challenge of Regenerative Urban Transition 12.4 Greyfield Infill Redevelopment 12.5 Towards a New Model for Residential Precinct Regeneration 12.6 Conclusion Acknowledgements References 13 City regional Futures in Context Overview 13.1 Introduction 13.2 City Futures as Guiding Visions 13.3 How Can We Use City Visions to Understand City Futures of Tomorrow? 13.4 Exploring Visions of Cities in Context: Cardiff 2050 13.5 Concluding Remarks References 14 National Policies for Local Urban Sustainability Overview 14.1 Introduction 14.2 Four National Sustainable City Programmes in Profile 14.3 Comparative Observations 14.4 Conclusions References Part IV: Overview of Key Themes from the Book 15 Conclusions and Reflections Overview 15.1 Introduction 15.2 Critical Factors for Successful Urban Retrofit Transition 15.3 Summary: Foresight for a Tomorrow’s World of Cities References Index End User License Agreement List of Tables Chapter 03 Table 3.1 Examples of conceptual frameworks used in energy efficiency research Table 3.2 Summary of interviewee groups Table 3.3 Suggested definitions for retrofit and refurbishment Chapter 04 Table 4.1 List of interviewees Chapter 05 Table 5.1 Characteristics of extensive and intensive green roofs Table 5.2 Barriers and drivers to green roof retrofit Chapter 06 Table 6.1 Emission factors used in the model The factor for electricity refers to the grid average at the start of the period modelled, and changes throughout according to the chosen scenario Chapter 07 Table 7.1 Dwelling types and population percentages for those in social or private housing in London, from the 2010–2011 EHS Table 7.2 Building fabric modelling input data for the modelling case study building (1960s high rise) Chapter 08 Table 8.1 Likelihood of overheating in six neighbourhoods in England under different climate change scenarios (based on average summer temperatures) Table 8.2 Rationalities for adopting/not adopting retrofit actions Table 8.3 Retrofit actions related to overheating and acceptability by residents in focus groups Table 8.4 Plausible socio technical response to overheating issue in suburban England Chapter 09 Table 9.1 Findings from the Birmingham Eastside Urban Regeneration Project (Rogers et al 2008, see www.esr.bham.ac.uk) Chapter 12 Table 12.1 Current and emerging best practice system performance at building, precinct and metro scale Chapter 13 Table 13.1 Retrofit 2050 national visions Table 13.2 Scenarios’ summary and indicative indicators Chapter 14 Table 14.1 Participant cities in the Indian Eco Cities programme Table 14.2 The 20 key areas of engagement in the Grille EcoQuartier Table 14.3 Main implementation phases of EcoQuartier programme Table 14.4 Japan’s national Eco Model City programme, and related FutureCity initiative Table 14.5 Twenty nine municipal authorities submitting funded Future Cities feasibility studies List of Illustrations Chapter 03 Figure 3.1 Multi level perspectives on transitions Figure 3.2 Conceptualisation of the commercial property retrofit regime Figure 3.3 Key commercial property retrofit technologies Figure 3.4 Drivers and barriers for commercial property retrofit Figure 3.5 Emerging niches in the commercial property retrofit regime: a multi level perspective Chapter 04 Figure 4.1 Process map with performance gap issues located in process Chapter 05 Figure 5.1 Typical green roof section Figure 5.2 Bio diversity roof retrofit – University of Melbourne Figure 5.3 Food producing retrofitted roof – UTS Housing, Sydney Figure 5.4 Alumni Green roof – UTS, Sydney Figure 5.5 Minifie Park Green Roof – Melbourne Figure 5.6 Minifie Park Green Roof – Melbourne Chapter 06 Figure 6.1 Composition of model Figure 6.2 Share of different fuels in the residential energy consumption of Welsh local authorities and Wales in (a) Cardiff City Region and (b) Wales as a whole Figure 6.3 Correlation between oil share in HEED main heating fuel data and total domestic energy consumption Each point represents a local authority Figure 6.4 Historical correlation between the use of oil fuel in space heating against the share in total domestic energy at UK level Each point represents a year Figure 6.5 Historical correlation between oil (and other petroleum products) use for space and water heating at UK level Each point represents a year Figure 6.6 CO2 emission savings broken down by type of building fabric measure for each local authority Figure 6.7 Investment needed by 2022 in each area of building fabric measures per local authority Figure 6.8 Scale of cost effective building fabric interventions for the Cardiff City Region domestic sector in the high (a) and low (b) fuel cost scenarios Figure 6.9 Split of cost effective instances, investment and carbon emission savings potential between different types of building fabric measures for the Cardiff City Region Figure 6.10 Estimated cost for space heating in 2017 in the high fuel cost scenario Figure 6.11 Projected emission factors for space heating in the local authorities of the Cardiff City Region for the high fossil fuel cost scenario Chapter 07 Figure 7.1 Simulated average screen temperature at 1.5 m height (°C) from 26 May to 19 July 2006 across the Greater London Authority Figure 7.2 What CRISP survey respondents considered constitutes a heat wave (size of bubble indicates number of respondents who chose this temperature) Figure 7.3 Comparison of how many windows CRISP survey respondents open in the daytime and at night Figure 7.4 The CRISP follow up case study building Figure 7.5 Standard floor plan of the CRISP follow up case study modelled building Figure 7.6 Exceedance of overheating thresholds in the living room of the mid floor flat of the CRISP follow up case study modelled building during the summer period under the 2050s Medium emissions 50th percentile UKCP09 scenario Figure 7.7 Temperature and PM2.5 indoor/outdoor (I/O) ratios in the bedroom of the mid floor flat of the CRISP follow up case study modelled building during the three hottest consecutive days of the 2050s Medium emissions 50th percentile UKCP09 scenario Figure 7.8 Multi layer London heat vulnerability risk mapping Chapter 08 Figure 8.1 Plotting control over housing versus likelihood to directly benefit from adaptation to overheating for 2011 (derived from Census of Population) HRPs, household reference persons Chapter 10 Figure 10.1 Interaction between different scale levels Figure 10.2 Transition ‘X curve’ Figure 10.3 The alternative retrofit regime visualised Figure 10.4 Principle of the ‘stroomversnelling’: sales price and expected sales price according to builders will exceed cost through industrialisation of retrofit Chapter 12 Figure 12.1 Actual and projected population growth of Melbourne by geographic zone Figure 12.2 Innovation arenas for establishing greyfield precincts Figure 12.3 Fishermans Bend (foreground) adjoining Melbourne central business district (rear), Docklands (rear left) and greyfields housing in City of Port Phillip (right margin) Figure 12.4 Surrey Hills station potential transit oriented development visualisation Figure 12.5 Transport corridor redevelopment: (a) Maribymong Road, Maribymong study area, currently; and (b) possible future Figure 12.6 Regeneration of public housing and adjoining neighbourhood, Melbourne Before (a) and after (b) Various micro interventions were proposed ranging from planting vegetables on the nature strip to calming traffic, expanded verges, and reclaiming the space of the street as community sports courts Figure 12.7 Residential zones in middle suburban Melbourne depicting existing residential property with high redevelopment potential indexes (RPIs) in 2015 (>80% market value in the land) Chapter 13 Figure 13.1 Retrofit 2050 national visions: (a) Smart Networked City; (b) Compact City; and (c) Self Reliant Green City Figure 13.2 The Retrofit 2050 visions and possibility ‘spaces’ Figure 13.3 Cardiff 2050: city regional scenarios for urban sustainability: Connected Cardiff; (b) Compact Cardiff – Wilderness Valleys; and (c) Orchard Cardiff City Region Figure 13.4 Locating the Cardiff 2050 visions policy making Seasonal Health Policy pollutants population, sustainable population density population growth Australia Melbourne UK possibility spaces possums post political condition post war regeneration precinct regeneration precinct scale ‘premium’ value Primary Urban Areas (PUAs) pro active strategy process stages programming and procurement (PR) project planning Promotion Council for Low Carbon Cities property, commercial, see commercial property sector PTEM public and private partnerships (PPPs) public housing redevelopment public transport access level (PTAL) purposive stance q quality of life r radical change in incremental steps radical niches radical sustainability innovations rate of house building rating environmental, see environmental rating EPC liveability rational choice re wilding redevelopment infill redevelopment potential indexes (RPIs) refurbishment definition regeneration regenerative urban transition residential precinct urban regimes regenerative urban transition socio technical Registered Social Landlords (RSL) relative humidity Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI) renovation double glazing replicability reshaping of cities residential energy consumption residential fuel mix Residential Growth Zone (RGZ) residential retrofit, modelling residential zoning, Melbourne resilience London 2062 project resource efficiency resources, sustainable use Rethinking Construction Report Retro Smart project retrofit acceptability actions alternative regime Australia Cardiff 2050 challenges cities community housing compelling city visions critical factors ‘deep’ definition design changes dynamics EcoQuartier programme energy efficient fast growing cities governance and dynamics green roof inclusive agenda industrialisation key technologies large scale levels and type of activity process stages regenerative risk and uncertainty suburban retrofitting problem systemic the underworld unintended consequences ‘wet proofing’ Retrofit City Futures Retrofit for the Future project Retrofit 2050 project Cardiff city regional futures retrofit definition Retrofit Revealed Report revitalisation of neighbourhoods RICS Best Practice Guidance Note risks aversion awareness and behaviour climate change flooding heat related mortality long term sharing multifactor heat risk mapping overheating vacancies rooftop space root barrier Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) s Salix Homes scale challenges built environment innovation scenarios aspirational Cardiff 2050 city visioning extreme yet plausible high fuel cost UKCP09 schematic design (SD) ‘scripts’ Seasonal Health Policy selection, guided Self Reliant Green City sequencing of activities sewerage shading external operation modes shaded outdoor spaces shared expectations shared interests shutters single glazing Ska Rating smart cities Cardiff 2050 Smart Cities competition (India) smart houses Smart Networked City social characteristics, aggregate social housing typologies weatherproofing Social Housing Schemes 117 social practice theory social space socio environmental impacts, catastrophic socio technical regime socio technological transitions Solar City project Bristol solar thermal panels solid walls insulation South East Wales area South Islington South Wales, economic history southern England, climate projections space heating estimated cost oil share stakeholders commercial property retrofit community housing retrofit institutional universities Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) Standard Assessment Procedure (SAP) standards commercial property sector consistent stormwater management stormwater roof strategic niche management ‘stroomversnelling’ structural support, availability sub surface built environment ‘sub surface resource’ Suburban Neighbourhood Adaptation for a Changing Climate (SNACC) suburbs Australian cities climate change greyfields, see greyfields suburban retrofitting problem ‘summer house’ summer thermal comfort, indoor SuperHomes Network Surrey Hills sustainability assessment frameworks Cardiff 2050 critical factors definition inherent local London 2062 project radical innovations urban Urban Sustainability Plan (France) Westminster Sustainable Business Forum see also unsustainability Sustainable Cities sustainable population sustainable transitions Cardiff 2050 global efforts steering urban Sustainable Urban Environments (SUE) programme Sydney Central Business District Environmental Upgrade Agreements stormwater roof systemic housing retrofit systems thinking approach ‘take off’ t tax increment financing (TIF) taxation Technical Advisory Panel (TAP) technical design (TD) technological innovation technological niches Technology Strategy Board (TSB) see also Innovate UK technology supplier network tenancy profile tenanted property ‘territorial foresight’ Thai Energy Efficiency Revolving Fund Thames Tideway Tunnel ‘thermal mass’ thermal performance thermal roof three pillar model threshold temperature thriving city Tokyo Metropolitan Government tax incentive schemes 79 ‘Tomorrow’s World’, cities top down models Toronto green roofs tax incentive schemes 79 training deficiencies transformative innovation Transformative Technology transit oriented development (TOD) transition management ‘Transition Zero’ transitions acceleration phase critical factors modelling regenerative socio technological sustainable transition arenas urban sustainability translocal networks transparency EcoQuartier programme transport corridors tunnels, multi utility ‘two axis’ technique u UK carbon emissions commercial property sector Future Cities initiatives greenhouse gas emissions housing stock population growth UK Committee on Climate Change (CCC) UK Green Building Council UK Green Investment Bank (UKGIB) UKCP09 scenario uncertainty HTT properties inherent London 2062 project understanding and skills underworld, retrofitting United Nation Conference on Environment and Development 1992 unsustainability awareness of see also sustainability urban development arenas urban development models urban expansion ‘urban foresight’ urban form and fabric Urban Futures project urban heat island (UHI) effect London Melbourne South Islington suburbs urban metabolism urban regeneration urban research landscape urban retrofit, see retrofit urban sustainability Cardiff 2050 definition local Urban Sustainability Plan (France) urban sustainability transition Cardiff 2050 critical factors modelling urban transitions modelling regenerative role of universities urbanisation USA, Energy Policy Act 2005 v vacancy risk valuation, green roof retrofit values, city visioning variation and selection, guided ventilation lifestyle related themes natural Victorian Heritage register VINEX virtual building design visioning cities City Visions Network compelling city visions dystopian guiding visions London V & P 2040 project w Wales Spatial Development Plan 2008 walkable neighbourhoods wall insulation Walport, Sir Mark ‘Warm Home Zones’ waste waste heat systems water heating oil share water management water & sewerage waterproofing weatherproofing urban social housing Welsh Government Westminster Sustainable Business Forum white walls whole systems approach, see holistic approach windows opening ‘wisdom inquiry’ universities working practices x ‘X curve’ z zero carbon homes Zero Carbon Hub (ZCH) zoning, residential WILEY END USER LICENSE AGREEMENT Go to www.wiley.com/go/eula to access Wiley’s ebook EULA ... Foresight and Scenarios in Engineering Liveable Future Cities Overview 9.1 Introduction 9.2 Retrofitting the Underworld 9.3 The Foresight Future of Cities Project 9.4 Scenarios Acknowledgements References... Retrofit Models for Regenerating Australia’s Fast Growing Cities Overview 12.1 Introduction 12.2 Current State, Future Trajectories and Retrofitting Challenges for Australia’s Largest Cities 12.3... Reflections Overview 15.1 Introduction 15.2 Critical Factors for Successful Urban Retrofit Transition 15.3 Summary: Foresight for a Tomorrow’s World of Cities References Index End User License Agreement