Bài tập lớn Kinh Tế Vĩ Mô Chủ đề: Unemployment usually changes due to the economic fluctuations Studying the unemployment trend in the US Bài làm When we talk about The Macro-Economics, there are a lot of targets relates to it, for example: GDP, CPI, Inflation rate Esspecially, we cannot but talk about the unemployment – one of the most important targets in the marco-economics We’ll learn about what’s the unemployment and the unemployment trend in US A Unemployment Measuring of the unemployment Unemployment, in econimics, is the status of workers who want to find a job but can’t find jobs Unemployment rate is the percentage of unemployed peoples in total labor force The history of unemployment is the history of industrializations In rural area, despite unemployments, partly unemployeds, workings less time in rural area, unemployments aren’t considered serious problems Reason of the unemployment In human history, unemployment (unemployment) appears only in capitalist society In the early social community, maintaining order in the herd forced all members to contribute labors and to work In European feudal societies, the transmissions of land gurantees that peoples are always employed Even in slave societies, slave owner never leave their possession idle for long period of time The Marxist-Leninist economy tries to create job for every individuals, even if it’s bulges of machineries if necessary (this can be called partial unemployment or hidden unemployment but it’s guaranteed worker still earn incomes from labors) In the capitalist societies, the bosses pursue the ultimate goals of profitabilities, on the other hand they aren’t responsible for the dismisssal of worker, so that they’re willing to accept unemployment, even profits from unemployment Worker who don’t has the resource to produce their own labor must be employed or unemployment Theory of economics explain unemployment in different way Keynesian economists emphasized that weak demand would lead to productions cut and layoff (unemploymentness) Others point out that the structural problem affect the labor markets (structural unemployment) Classical and neo-classical economic tend to explain the external market pressures, such as minimum salaries, taxes, and restriction on employing worker (ordinary unemployment) Some commented that unemployment was mainly a voluntary choices Marxism explains unemployment as the reality that keeps businesses profitables and capitalists Different view may be correct in different way, contributing to a comprehensive views of unemployment After years of works, he regret of people for the unemployed university is also evidence Applying the supply-demands priciple to the labor markets helps to explain the unemployment rate as well as the cost of labor Studies by the World Bank in Africa, the Middle East and Latin America indicate that, in developing countries, high unemployment among women’s and young peoples are consequences of the regulations on master responsibility labor Classification of the unemployment • Classical unemployment: is the types of unemployment that relates to type of employments that the actual salaries paid to the persons doing the jobs are higher than the actual average pay of the labor markets, which makes labor supply for this work is higher than demand This type of unemployment is also known as real salary • labor Structural unemployment: is the types of temporary unemployment that is expected by worker to find the jobs they’re looking for and not • find a jobs Cyclical unemployment: unemployment is related to the economic cycles in which the aggregate demands are lower than the total supplies leading to the enterprise to decrease productions and reduce the labor hidings This types of unemployment is also called Keynesian unemployment because Keynes is the proponents of • aggregate demands - aggregate supplys Frictional unemployment: is the types of unemployment that worker and tenant is unable to find each other for reason such as • geographical difference, lack of information’s, etc… Disguised unemployment: unemployed worker who aren’t properly or not using their skills This category includes farm workers in the leisure time (sometimes those who are separated into seasonally • unemployed) Latent unemployment: is the type of unemployment that isn’t reported Impact on the society and economic  Personal Exchanges: - Having no jobs means that communications with other worker is limited, wasting times, unable to pay, buying essential item as well as consuming merchandise The following factor is extremely serious for the persons responsible for families, debts, medical expense Specific study indicate that raised unemployment is associated with raised crime rate, suicide rate, and poorer qualities of healths - From some point of views, worker often must choose low-income job (while finding a suitable jobs) because the benefit of social insurances are only available to those who have had previous work experiences On the part of the employers, use unemployment to exert pressures on employees (e.g., not improving the working environments, imposing high productivities, low wage, limiting opportunity for advancement, etc…) - The other price of unemployment is, in the absences of financial resource and social welfares, individual is forced to job that don’t match their levels of competence Therefore, unemployment causes the situation to work under the ability In thirst sense, unemployment benefits are needed - The disadvantages of losing a job lead to depression, weakening the influence of unions, more hard-working workers, accepting lesser salary and ultimately job protectionism This increases barriers for people who want to enter the workforce, restrict migration, and restrict international competition Finally, unemployment will make the balance of labor conditions lean toward employers, raise the price of leaving work, and decrease the benefits of finding other income opportunities  Psychological impact - The unemployed are easily in the status of being redundant, but the impact is different between the sexes In women without work, housework and childcare can still be accepted as satisfactory substitutions, whereas in men, family income is closely tied to individual values, self-esteem Men who lose their jobs are often self-deprecating, very sensitive and irritable, they can look to alcohol and cigarettes to forget their sadness, this situation extends beyond the ability to addiction directly affect health It’s possible to initiate a new problem that is domestic violence They’re also prone to psychological disturbances such as sadness, insomnia, depression and, as mentioned above, sometimes lead to suicide  Price to businesses and decreased economic growth - High unemployment means low GDP (gross domestic product), unused human resources, and the chance to produce more products and services - Unemployment also means less productions Fall the effi ciencies of productions by scale - Unemployment leads to decreased social needs Non-consumer merchandises and service, meager business opportunity, product qualities, and fall price In addition, high unemployment leads to less consumer demands than when many jobs, so investment opportunity is less  Benefit - The increasing unemployment correlates with inflationary pressures This is illustrated by the Phillips cruve in economic - A moderate unemployment rate will help both workers and employers Workers may find other employment opportunities appropriate to their needs, desires and conditions of residence On the part of employers, unemployment helps them find the right workers, increase employee loyalty So that, to some extent, unemployment productivity and raised profits leads to increased Formula for calculating the unemployment rate   Numerators: Not counting people who don’t try to find a job Denominator: Total number of social workers = Number of people employed + Number of unemployment but actively looking for a job We can see that the unemployment rate has changed for a number of reasons, stemming from changes increase the market or the economy For example, minimum wage, hiring regulations, employer’s responsibilities, or the need to change the employment of employees, etc… But ultimately, most fundamental issue is the maintenance of profitability of the business When changes from the economy emerge with signs of decline, the income of workers will decreases, from which the macroeconomic demand will decrease This forced the company to scale down production resulting increase layoffs of job cuts that led to unemployment In addition, there is another case where rising labor market prices will limit the expansion of production or employment, resulting in increased unemployment Although unemployment is a very worrying issue for an economy, especially for developing economies with young population (where there is a plentiful labor force), it is becoming more and more important, should be more serious But unemployment has its positive side, especially the rise in unemployment rates is inversely proportional to the rate of inflation However, for each economy, to ensure stable and long-term development, appropriate policies are needed to balance these two indicators => So that, all economic fluctuation affect the change of unemployment, especially the changes related to the change of the macro-demand According to the US Labor Department, worker lost their job mainly in the service sectors, accounting for 80% of the labor forces, with 273 thousands peoples, followed by manufacturings (149 thounsand) due to the negatives impact of the automobile industries, the construction industries (101 thousands), the retail sectors (67 thousand peoples)… Some lucky peoples aren’t fired, decreased labor hour In December 2008, the average hour worked by US worker decreased by 0.2 hour to 33.3 hour, the lowest since the indexs began in 1964 The unemployment situations in the countries has surprised many economists In fact, the unemployment rate in 2008 was 0.2% higher than economist expected Unemployment increases from the economic downturns, on the contrary, unemployment also has a negatives impact on the US economy, unemployment rate in the United States have increased sharply, as many company and corporation believe and prolonged The reasons for this is that leading company and corporation have alreadyplanned to cut productions in 2009, cutti ng expense to minimize losses To this, corporate bosses quickly cut job because it was easier and less costly than Europe, which set stricter requirement for businesses to cut number The numbers of employees, as well as the agreements on statutory leaves The rapid rising in unemployment causes many consequences First, this affects the resilience of the economy, continues to weaken “demand” and prolong the recession Unemployment has also made the US housing market continue to freeze Many observers predict that after two years of freezing, the housing market won’t be albe to prosper because customers are more hesitant to open their wallets, especially in the real estate sector In the 1990s, reducing the unemployment rate contributed to a significant falling in poverty, especially among ethnic minority and female-headed households, today in the United States Again the opposite phenomenon Long-term unemployment increases the risk of Americans decreasing into poverty, especially when many unemployed workers and workers are unemployed and these numbers are generally only available in the shortterm Unemployment is rampant in many sectors and fields in the United States Starting from the manufacturing sector, unemployment has hit the heaviest construction sector as a result of a decline in real estate transactions In recent months, service fields, especially retail, have also been hit hard It can be seen that the seasonal employment rate for the past Christmas was lower than usual To date, unemployment has spread to the transportation and financial services sectors In sectors, only the medical sector still need workers Based on the indicators of unemployment, many experts predict this situation may continue to rise in 2009 and 2010 According to experts, unemployment ended at a time when there is a close relationship With the recession in the United States, it’s said to be the longest in post-war history President Obama’s administrations has proposed a $800 billions economic stimulus packages to create an additional three millions job in the next two years Much of this supports is used in infrastructure project, such as the improvements of road, bridge, school and hospital The requestions posed by economist is whether money is able to quickly limit the increasings in unemployment and the impact of economic stimulus in temporaries? However, in the events that the packages are effective in stabilizings the economies by the end of 2009, it’s likely that company and corporation will plan to recruit staff members and employments market in the United States will come back In 2010, data released by the US Department of Labor recently showed that the number of people caliming unemployment benefits for the first time reached 500.000, an rising of 12.000 the week before, the highest since mid-November is the third consecutive rising A report from the Labor Ministry also said that by the end of July, the number of people requesting an extension of the benefits and the number of people claiming emergency benefits incresed to 5.600.000 According to Lianhe Zaobao, US unemployment claims surged to a recor 651.000 last March, then reduced steadily to 439.000 early Feburary However, after that time this number continued to rise, and caused much worry about the market With the slowdown in US economic growth, the problem of unemployment is likely to become increasingly urgent The unemployment rate is high, reaching 9.5%, indicating that the US economy is weakening This makes President Barack Obama facing serious challenges, and the Democrats will face big hurdles to win the majority of the upper house votes The two senators in the parliamentary election President Obama is urging the Senate to approve a scheme for small businesses struggling o get loans and through data showing a weak economy President Obama has said that among Americans who have joined the unemployment ranks, as many as 60 percent com from small businesses, it shows that small businesses are in dire need of help “These are all busenesses that often create jobs in the US If we want to make more jobs quickly, we have to help them”, said the president According to the report, the employment law, which includes a $30 billions employment fund, wil eliminate small-business investment taxes, which will make it esier for small business owners to fall charges and require district banks This creates conditions for small businesses to borrow President Obama says the bill will help many small businesses get more loans and other capital needed to drive growth and rise staffing At the same time, the president criticized the Republic for political purposes that prevented the law from being implemented ”The deterrent force still exists, which hinders small businesse owners from getti ng the loans and tax breaks needed for the development of the business, it doesn’t comfrom to the basic normative judgments”, he said The latest budget statement from the Congressional Budget Office shows that the government’s budget deficit this year will reach $1.3 trillion – the highest level in 65 years Federal Reserve Back of Philadelphia (Fed), overall business index in June, July respectively 5.1 and 8.0 in August reduced to 7.7 This index clearly shows that business activities of enterprises are in a recession This result is much lower than expected Economists had previously predicted that the Fed’s August index for business activity was 7.0, maintaining its July index, and other figures in the manufacturing sector showing a trend Stabilization and expansion of the field At the same time, the annual business meeting in the world said the economic index in July rised 0.1% June’s revised economic index decreased 0.3%, down 0.2% from its initial value Nonetheless, economistss at the Dow Jones Economic Research agency surveyed and forecasted the economy’s leading index for July to increase 0.2% Economy.com analyst RyanSweet said increase an interview with Reuters that for the first time increase recent weeks, increasing unemployment claims could prompt the Fed to quickly make plans into action The US Federal Reserve (FED) pointed out that once the economic outlook worsens, rapid action will be take However, the Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis President James Bullard warned the Fed not to rush to launch a series of monetary stimulus policies The Wall Street Journal reported that the Fed had recently said it would use the funds after mortgage securities expired on treasury bonds government This shows that the Fed can prevent the United States from reducing into a state of emergency inflation Although the US economic outlook and inflation are on the downward trendm the US economic remains increase a state of control Unemployed lined up to apply for a job outside of a job fair in Los Angeles In 2015, this Febuary’s employment growth indicates that the US economy has grown significantly over the past year The offi cial unemployment rate has reduced to 5.5% This is the lowest unemployment rate since May 2008, before the financial-monetary crisis As more work is created, the next question may be how much, in turn, the wage rise Weekly pays increased only an average of 2% increase Febuary For a thriving economy, this rising ranges from 3.5% to 4% The retail business contribute to 32.000 new jobs and continues to be the strongest job creation sector The downside is that the retail sector tends to focus on low-salary jobs Meanwhile, ennergy companies have stepped back on employment because of the steady decline increase oil fees Often, druing the economic recovery, the energy sector is albe to pay high wages and contribute more jobs Healthcare is the second largest contributor to employment increase the United States with a total of 24.000 newly created job Obviously, the Obamacare health insurance program has played an important role in stimulating employment With the overall employment situation improving, US businesses will have to gradually adopt a skillful steward strategy instead of having a plethora of job applications and the company’s choice of people In 2016, the Labor Department figures released Friday also showed enough signs that the US job market will continue to be strong, dispelling the perception that the full economy slow growth is pulling the US economy down In January there were a total of 151,000 new jobs, sharply down from an average of 271,000 new jobs in the previous two months After 2015, the job market will grow strongly, with 2.7 million new jobs throughout the year, the decline in the first month of this year can not be considered as a sign of a new trend reversal The job market is still growing slightly, with the unemployment rate standing at the lowest level since February 2008, when the US economy began to recession In addition, the salary-hour hike is closely monitored as a sign that inflationary pressures may rise - also inching up The average hourly pay was up 0.5% from December 2015 to $ 25.39, and up 2.5% over the same period last year Another sample of employment is the proportion of employed people in the total population, showing a more overall employment picture, up 59.6% from 59.3% a year ago, but still much lower compared with 63% before the 2008-2009 crisis Commenting on the new employment data, President Barack Obama stated, "The United States currently has the strongest and most persistent economy in the world." "Over the past six years, US businesses have created 14 million new jobs," he said Employment remains strongest in the retail, entertainment, tourism and health sectors However, the areas with strong growth are construction and manufacturing (the sector has been declining in recent months) Io Shepherdson, of the Pantheon Institute for Macroeconomics, said that the figure of 7.8 million unemployed was only slightly higher than that of December Meanwhile, 2.1 millions unemployed and millions unemployed working part-time, unable to seek a full-time jobs, is almost unchanged "Although 151,000 new jobs in January were lower than expected and slower than in the previous month, this figures shows a recoveries," said Beth Ann Bovino, chief economist at Standard & Poor's The economies of the United States continues " She said that in the contexts of a volatile global economies and a stalled domestic markets, job growths was positive, with unemployment reducing to 4.9% and increasing salary It shows America is going right directions The monthly unemployment rate is considered a signs of the Fed's move in a policy meetings in March after raising interest rates by 0.25 percentage points last December and continued to keep interest rates in January If salary continue to increase in February there will be further ground for the Fed to continue increasing interest rates Slower job growths, however, may force the Fed to wait for more economics and inflation indicator Therefore, although there is no clear-cut forecasts of the Fed's moves, the markets still think that increasing salary is likely to lead to higher interest rate sooner or later The dollars rose around 0.4 percents to $ 1.1146 per euro, and short-term government bond yield rose sharply But the stock markets have reduced ahead of some forecasts on the Fed's abilities to raise interest rate next month The S & P 500 lost 2% at the closes As the US job markets look positive, it’s almost certain that the Fed will increase its keys US dollar rates this December, according to forecast ny analyst increase Reuters Unemployment has reduced but American salary decrease Certainly, the Fed will have to consider these factors at its next policy meetings on 13 and 14 December Although down increase November, but from the geginnings of 2-16 to now, the US salary has rised by 2.5%, close to the highest increase years and a half Many labor market expert isn’t worried when the American pay decline in the past month “The labor markets are undergoing a periods of adjustments, so the salariy has reduced temporarily This isn’t a signs of bad performances” chief investment strategists at Plante Moran Financial Advisors, said Jim Baird After increasing 6% in the last three trading sessions, the US stock markets didn’t change much with US unemployment claims increase November Labor market analystss say the US president-elects, Donald Trump, plans to rise spendings on US infrastructures, lowering tax to encourage company to boost recruitments have mad a lot of positives impact on the American economies, helping more Americans get job If by 2015, 229 thousand Americans are recruited each month, this number will average 190 thousands increase 2016 Still, the 180 thousandsfigure is still enough to help ensure a good labor markets Acorrding to FED president Janet Yellen, the US economy needs only 100.000 new jobs a month to keep pace with the growth of the workforce Last month, the number of new jobs rised steadily increase all sectors However, the manufaturing sector alone lost 4.000 jobs The number of jobs increase this sector has dropped for four consecutive months The construction sector added 19.000 new jobs ib November after 14.000 new jobs increase October As the trend of online shopping became more popular, the us retail industry was forced to lay off 8.300 employees Many large retail chains increase the United States have been forced to close shops because of poor business In a report released on May 5, 2017, the US Department of Labor said increase April that the world’s largest economy generated 211.000 jobs, a significant rising over the forecast of 180.000 employed by the world’s largest economy give birth Since the beginning of the year, the unemployment rate in the United States has dropped 0.6%, and on average, the economy has created 185.000 new jobs a month The number of new jobs created last month was mainly increase the mining, health care, social and entertainment sectors Meanwhile the increase increase salaris last month also continues to rise On average, US workers earned $29.19 per hour, up only 0.3% from the previous month, but up 2.5% over the same period last year Anylysts said the figures are another indication that the US economy is increase good shape However, the improvement of the US labor market may increased concerns about inflation American Farmers US Labor Department report released on May 3, Federal Reverse Bank (FED) dicided to keep interest rates unchanged FED’s decision reaffi rmed the optimism about US economic groth and is a sign that the Fed is aiming to raise interest rates twice this year and may tighten the key The earliest currency book increase June President Donald Trump is trying to prevent people from leaving the US workforce, particularly increase the manufacturing sector With the motto, “America is a bove all”, Trump has pledged to create 25 million new jobs in 10 years and bring the power back to a 4% annual growth rate – a goal that experts this is “unrealistic” US unemployment increased slightly increase August, 2017 and job growth, after being revised, was lower than economists expected The Labor Department report, relesead that unemployment increased to 4.4 percent Although there is an rising, this is the rate of rising close to the lowest level increase 16 years The whole economy has added 156.000 jobs, tens of thousands less jobs, compared with last month Salaries continue to raise at a rate of 2.5% annually PNC chief economist Gus Faucher said the “soft ” salary raise was a long-term problem, but predicted a tightening of labor markets would prompt employers to pay higher salaries Bankrate.com’s economist Mark Hamrick said salaries weren’t increasing while unemployment was causing economists to scratch their heads, not knowing how to explain them He say part of the problem lies increase the sharp raise in productivity, which affects the rising increase salaries Hamrick analysts add that a boomer generation of retirees means that younger workers, who tend to have lower salaries, are replacing them Government economists closely monitor unemployment, saying that Hurricane Harvey “has no significant effect” on the current unemployment figure, because data was collected before the storm struck come Faucher said the next unemployment report may show a significantly weaker growth rate due to Hurricane Harvey, but its impact will be temporary, and many will be recruited to join Efforts to build and rebuild The Labor Department report says there are 7.1 millions unemployed increase the United States, and 5.3 million others who want to work full time but are trapped in parttime jobs Get jobs in manufacturing, construction, professional services, and health care A University of Michigan survey found that more than half of customers said their personal financial situation had improved over the past few months This is the best result increase the past 17 years Economists still follow customers’ atti tudes because when customers feel more financially secure, they tend buy larger items such as cars or homes Demand stimulates most of America’economic activity Another statistic shows that unemployment claims reduced last week to a 44-week low In the week to Oct 28, unemployment claims dropped 5,000 to 229,000, far short of the 223,000 (which is also the lowest level in 44 years) in mid-October Last week marks the 139th consecutive week of unemployment claims below 300,000 US unemployment rates are at 4.2%, the lowest in 16½ years, while the average worker productivity of workers is 1.2% in the years 2007-2016-lower figure of 2.1% in the years 1947-2016 Experts on the stabilization of the labor market will push the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates in December 2017 But analysts say the world's largest economy may be struggling to meet the three-year annual growth target committed by US President Donald Trump Now, Trump's administration is promoting a large-scale tax reform program and diminishing guidelines to achieve that goal On November 2, Republican senators in the US House of Representatives called for a series of changes in the country's tax system, including decreased rates for businesses and individuals - The End -