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Một cuốn sách viết về sự chuyển mình của nền kinh tế Việt Nam, xuất bản bởi Asia Acific Press.
iPREFACEa transition tiger?VIETNAM iiVIET NAM: A TRANSITION TIGER? iiiPREFACEBrian Van Arkadie &Raymond Mallona transition tiger?VIETNAMAsia Pacific Press atThe Australian National University ivVIET NAM: A TRANSITION TIGER?National Library of Australia Cataloguing-in-PublicationVan Arkadie, Brian.Viet Nam : a transition tiger?New ed.Includes index.ISBN 0 9751229 2 4 (Online document)1. Vietnam - Economic conditions - 1975- . 2. Vietnam -Economic policy - 1975- . I. Mallon, Raymond. II. Title.338.9597Co-published by the ANU E Press and Asia Pacific PressThe Australian National UniversityCanberra ACT 0200, AustraliaPreviously published by Asia Pacific PressEdited by Matthew May, Asia Pacific PressCover design by Annie Di Nallo DesignAll electronic versions prepared inhouseFirst edition © 2003 Asia Pacific PressThis edition © 2004 ANU E Press and Asia Pacific PressAll rights reserved. You may download, display, print and reproduce thismaterial in unaltered form only (retaining this notice) for your personal, non-commercial use or use within your organization. vPREFACECONTENTSTables viFigures viiMaps viiiBoxes viiiAbbreviations ixPreface xiViet Nam and its recent experience with development1 Viet Nam’s development experience 12 Geography, resources and population 113 Economic performance and key issues 27The Doi Moi process4 Prelude to reform: the attempted introduction of central planning 385 Political institutions and economic management 566 The introduction of Doi Moi 657 Strategic building blocks of Doi Moi 798 Ongoing reforms: building the institutions for macroeconomicmanagement 90Enterprise development9 Institutional change and business development 10310 State enterprises 12211 Household and private business development 153Economic growth performance12 The pattern of economic growth 17613 Capital formation and external assistance 204Income growth and poverty alleviation14 Poverty alleviation 22415 Causes of continuing poverty 23516 Poverty, location and internal migration 239Conclusion17 Achievements of Doi Moi and future challenges 252Statistical Appendix 267References 274Index 288 viVIET NAM: A TRANSITION TIGER?TABLES1.1 Per capita incomes in selected Asian countries, 1950–98 51.2 Per capita income in Viet Nam, 1950–98 52.1 Biodiversity in Viet Nam 132.2 Key rural indicators in selected Asian economies 142.3 Population distribution by region, 1995–2001 192.4 Gross regional product per capita by major region,1995–2000 222.5 Share of GDP by region, 1995–2000 222.6 Agriculture value-added by region, 1995–2000 232.7 Industrial value-added by domestic enterprises by region,1995–2001 242.8 Total industrial value-added by region, 1995–2001 243.1 Average annual indicators of growth and inflation, 1976–80to 1996–2001 283.2 Key indicators of economic developments, 1986–2001 303.3 Structural changes in the economy, 1986–2001 304.1 Comparative indicators of human development, 1990 526.1 Some milestones in the Vietnamese reform process, 1986–98 728.1 Allocation of bank lending to enterprises in Viet Nam,1991–2001 1009.1 Formal laws governing business entities 1099.2 Share of industry group output by ownership,1995 and 2000 11610.1 Decision 91 State Corporations 13411.1 Number of newly registered enterprises, 1991–2001 16811.2 Average registered capital of new enterprises, 1991–2001 16811.3 Newly established enterprises by region, 1991–2001 17011.4 Cooperatives re-registered under new cooperative law 17012.1 Annual growth rates, 1994–2000 18012.2 Export performance, by main commodity, 1998–2000 18312.3 Growth rates in selected Asian economies, 1996–2001 18912.4 Average annual growth rates in paddy output and inputs,1976–94 19412.5 Industrial output, 1985–2001 199 viiPREFACE13.1 Gross fixed capital formation, 1991–2001 20513.2 Investment, by ownership, 1995–2000 20713.3 Allocation of state investment, 1995–2000 20713.4 Savings–investment balance, 1995–2000 21113.5 Foreign direct investment: disbursement by economic sector,1988–2000 21213.6 Manufacturing output by foreign-invested sector, totaland selected sub-sectors, 1995 and 2000 21413.7 Annual ODA commitments and disbursements, 1993–2001 21714.1 Food poverty and overall poverty headcounts in Viet Nam,1993 and 1998 22814.2 Poverty gap and poverty severity level headcounts forViet Nam, 1993 and 1998 231A1.1 GDP at current price by economic sector, 1985–2001 267A1.2 GDP at constant prices by economic sector, 1985–2001 268A1.3 GDP growth at constant prices by economic sector,1985–2001 269A1.4 Retail price inflation—consumer goods and services,1986–2001 270A1.5 Total values of exports and imports, 1990–2001 271A1.6 Merchandise exports by major commodities, 1992–2000 272A1.7 Balance of payments, 1992–2000 273FIGURES1.1 Viet Nam’s per capita income relative as a proportion ofselected Asian economies’ per capita income, 1950–98 41.2 GDP growth in selected transition economies, 1980–2000 72.1 Viet Nam population pyramid, 1989 and 1999 182.2 Age dependency ratio in selected Asian countries,1986–2000 193.1 GDP growth by sector, 1997–2001 289.1 GDP growth, 1986–2000 1149.2 Share of GDP by sector, 1986–2000 11412.1 Financing development and growth, 1986–2001 17812.2 Export growth in selected Asian economies, 1986–2000 182 viiiVIET NAM: A TRANSITION TIGER?12.3 Total trade turnover in selected Asian economies,1986–2000 18712.4 Growth rates in selected Asian countries, 1986–2001 18912.5 FDI inflows in selected Asian countries, 1986–2000 19112.6 Per capita food production in Viet Nam, 1975–88 19313.1 Savings ratios in selected Asian countries, 1986–2000 210MAPS2.1 Main regions of Viet Nam 12BOXES12.1 The seed sub-sector 197SYMBOLS USED IN TABLESn.a. not applicable not available-zero. insignificant ixPREFACEABBREVIATIONSADB Asian Development BankAFTA ASEAN Free Trade AreaASEAN Association of Southeast Asian NationsCBR crude birth rateCDF Comprehensive Development FrameworkCIEM Central Institute of Economic ManagementCIS Commonwealth of Independent StatesCMEA Council for Mutual Economic AssistanceCPI Consumer Price IndexCPV Communist Party of VietnamCSCER Central Steering Commitee for Enterprise ReformDAC development assistance communityEPZ export processing zoneESAP Enhanced Structural Adjustment ProgramEU European UnionFDI foreign direct investmentGDP gross domestic productGNP gross national productGSO General Statistical OfficeHDI Human Development IndexHRD human resource developmentIFPRI International Food Policy Research InstituteIMF International Monetary FundIRRI International Rice Research InstituteLSMS Living Standards Measurement StudyMARD Ministry of Agriculture and Rural DevelopmentMFI multilateral financial institutionsMOFI Ministry of FinanceMOJ Ministry of JusticeMOLISA Ministry of Labour, Invalids and Social AffairsMPI Ministry of Planning and InvestmentNIC newly industrialised countryODA official development assistanceOECD Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development [...]...x PIP PSA SAC SBVN SGELI SOE UK UN UNDP US USSR VAT VCCI VLSS VIET NAM: A TRANSITION TIGER? Public Investment Program Provincial Seed Agency Structural Adjustment Credit State Bank of Viet Nam Steering Group for Enterprise Law Implementation state-owned enterprise United Kingdom United... stimulating and productive work environment In particular, we gained valuable insights working on projects headed by former planning ministers, Do Quoc Sam and Tranh Xuan Gia xii VIET NAM: A TRANSITION TIGER? We have also learnt much from discussions with the international community during our work, sometimes learning most when we agreed least The two Adams—Adam Fforde and Adam McCarty—have been a continuing... responsible for any of the contents, although they surely can claim credit if our efforts prove useful Brian Van Arkadie and Raymond Mallon March 2003 VIET NAM’S DEVELOPMENT EXPERIENCE 1 Viet Nam: a transition tiger Viet Nam’s development experience Abstract for chapter 1 The two themes of this book are introduced: the first, a comprehensive review of developments in the Vietnamese economy and the evolution... surprise.1 Throughout the 1990s, many international advisors warned that Vietnamese development targets were overambitious During the last 15 years, Viet Nam was repeatedly 1 2 VIET NAM: A TRANSITION TIGER? warned that it was at a critical turning point in the reform process, and that concerted efforts were urgently needed to accelerate and ‘deepen’ its reforms to avert economic stagnation And yet... decades of the twentieth century, Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan were transformed from poor underdeveloped economies to modern and relatively affluent economies through VIET NAM: A TRANSITION TIGER? 4 growth rates that were among the highest recorded in the history of world development More recently, dramatic transformations have also been taking place in Malaysia, Thailand and China Figure... international Geary–Khamis dollars Source: Derived from Maddison, A., 2001 The World Economy: a millennial perspective, Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, Paris a 6 VIET NAM: A TRANSITION TIGER? in the policy regime explains the timing of the economic revival, it does not explain the sustained strength of the subsequent growth performance How was it possible for Viet Nam to shift swiftly... former Soviet Union The degree of institutional stability maintained during the transition process was also crucially important Instead of the ‘root and branch’ destruction of 8 VIET NAM: A TRANSITION TIGER? old institutions as a prelude to the installation of new mechanisms, many reforms were directed at making existing institutions work better, while gradually introducing new market institutions The... former Vice President of the World Bank Another ex-World Bank economist, William Easterly, has also mounted a strong challenge to World Bank orthodoxies And, in fairness 10 5 6 VIET NAM: A TRANSITION TIGER? to the World Bank, its own research programs frequently offer a nuanced view of the range of appropriate policies, as in Nelson and Pack (1999) But some have argued that it has not been positive... for Mutual Economic Assistance, which included the former USSR, the Eastern European centrally planned countries and Viet Nam, but not China VIET NAM’S DEVELOPMENT EXPERIENCE 1 Viet Nam: a transition tiger Geography, resources and population Abstract for chapter 2 Viet Nam is the twelfth most populous country in the world, but only 58th in terms of land area – a little smaller than Germany This chapter... natural resources have played an important role in recent economic development, the country is not particularly well endowed with agricultural, forest, energy, or mineral resources 11 VIET NAM: A TRANSITION TIGER? 12 Map 2.1 Main regions of Viet Nam Northeast Northwest Red River Delta North Central Central Highlands Central Coast Southeast Mekong River Delta Source: Adapted from World Bank, n.d Map of Vietnam, . iPREFACEa transition tiger? VIETNAM iiVIET NAM: A TRANSITION TIGER? iiiPREFACEBrian Van Arkadie &Raymond Mallona transition tiger? VIETNAMAsia Pacific. University ivVIET NAM: A TRANSITION TIGER? National Library of Australia Cataloguing-in-PublicationVan Arkadie, Brian.Viet Nam : a transition tiger? New ed.Includes index.ISBN