Chapter 10 Introduction to Time Series Modeling and Forecasting Copyright © 2012 Pearson Education, Inc All rights reserved Section 10.1 What Is a Time Series Copyright © 2012 Pearson Education, Inc All rights reserved Section 10.2 Time Series Components Copyright © 2012 Pearson Education, Inc All rights reserved Figure 10.1 The components of a time series Copyright © 2012 Pearson Education, Inc 10- Section 10.3 Forecasting Using Smoothing Techniques Copyright © 2012 Pearson Education, Inc All rights reserved Copyright © 2012 Pearson Education, Inc 10- Figure 10.2 MINITAB plot of quarterly power loads Copyright © 2012 Pearson Education, Inc 10- Copyright © 2012 Pearson Education, Inc 10- Figure 10.3 MINITAB plot of quarterly power loads and 4-point moving average Copyright © 2012 Pearson Education, Inc 10- Copyright © 2012 Pearson Education, Inc 10- Section 10.8 Fitting Time Series Models with Autoregressive Errors Copyright © 2012 Pearson Education, Inc All rights reserved Figure 10.14 SAS printout for model of annual sales revenue Copyright © 2012 Pearson Education, Inc 10- Figure 10.15 MINITAB residual plot annual sales model Copyright © 2012 Pearson Education, Inc 10- Figure 10.16 SAS printout for annual sales model with autoregressive errors continued on next slide Copyright © 2012 Pearson Education, Inc 10- Figure 10.16 SAS printout for annual sales model with autoregressive errors (cont’d) Copyright © 2012 Pearson Education, Inc 10- Copyright © 2012 Pearson Education, Inc 10- Section 10.9 Forecasting with Time Series Autoregressive Models Copyright © 2012 Pearson Education, Inc All rights reserved Copyright © 2012 Pearson Education, Inc 10- Figure 10.17 SAS printout of forecasts of annual sales revenue using straight-line model with autoregressive errors Copyright © 2012 Pearson Education, Inc 10- Copyright © 2012 Pearson Education, Inc 10- Section 10.10 Seasonal Time Series Models: An Example Copyright © 2012 Pearson Education, Inc All rights reserved Figure 10.18 Water usage time series Copyright © 2012 Pearson Education, Inc 10- Figure 10.19 SAS printout for time series model of water usage Copyright © 2012 Pearson Education, Inc 10- Figure 10.20 Forecasts of water usage Copyright © 2012 Pearson Education, Inc 10- Section 10.11 Forecasting Using Lagged Values of the Dependent Variable (Optional) Copyright © 2012 Pearson Education, Inc All rights reserved ... power loads and 4-point moving average Copyright © 2012 Pearson Education, Inc 10- Copyright © 2012 Pearson Education, Inc 10- Figure 10.4 MINITAB printout of exponentially smoothed quarterly... 10.4 Forecasting: The Regression Approach Copyright © 2012 Pearson Education, Inc All rights reserved Copyright © 2012 Pearson Education, Inc 10- Figure 10.6 SAS scatterplot of sales data Copyright... Education, Inc 10- Figure 10.2 MINITAB plot of quarterly power loads Copyright © 2012 Pearson Education, Inc 10- Copyright © 2012 Pearson Education, Inc 10- Figure 10.3 MINITAB plot of quarterly