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Advanced Development EconimicsTopic: Chinas growthĐây là chủ đề chúng mình nghiên cứu về nền kinh tế của Trung Quốc, vì sao Trung Quốc chỉ giậm chân mãi ở bẫy thu nhập trung bình từ đó đưa ra những dự đoán về những khởi sắc về nền kinh tế TQ trong tương lai
Economic overview Capital Accumulation The long-term strategy and POEs and SOEs and China’s growth prospects in 2016-2030 http://dichvudanhvanban.com • Group 3: Class 40k04 • • • • Nguyen Tram Anh Le Thi Hoa Bach Thi Thu Huyen Nguyen Dang Hoai Nhi http://dichvudanhvanban.com ECONOMIC OVERVIEW http://dichvudanhvanban.com Thành phố New York, USA 1870 ngày (Nguồn: DailyMail) The Chinese economy experienced astonishing growth http://dichvudanhvanban.com China weathered the global economic crisis better than most other countries http://dichvudanhvanban.com Major Developing Economies by GDP per capita at PPP http://dichvudanhvanban.com Since 2008, however, growth has slowed and become increasingly dependent on investment http://dichvudanhvanban.com http://dichvudanhvanban.com what factors? http://dichvudanhvanban.com 2.Fast labour productivity growth in China mainly driven by capital accumulation China’s economic development in the last 20 years is one of the fastest the world has ever seen Output increased mainly due to rapid labour productivity growth (8.6% annually over 1995-2015), with a relatively small contribution from employment growth http://dichvudanhvanban.com Bias towards heavy industry leads to high investment at lower efficiency http://dichvudanhvanban.com In 1996, the government launched a long-term strategy to boost the role of key sectors in the economy http://dichvudanhvanban.com http://dichvudanhvanban.com Lower TFP More capital intensive Larger http://dichvudanhvanban.com Click icon to add picture Lending large government firms in heavy industry is crowding-out lending to smaller firms in light They to getthe implicit subsidies, mainly through cheaper industry and services government-guaranteed loans from state-owned banks http://dichvudanhvanban.com In the last two years, the government has become aware these excesses Anof unprecedented rise and is now trying in the amount of credit to rebalance the economy to be more consumer goods and services oriented Continuing crowding-out of lending to more labour intensive but potentially more eficient sectors and firms http://dichvudanhvanban.com http://dichvudanhvanban.com Click icon to add picture Beijing Beijing forced forced to to seek seek aa new new growth growth model model http://dichvudanhvanban.com Click icon to add picture 80% 80% of of Chinese Chinese cities cities "suffocated" "suffocated" by by air air pollution pollution According to the representative of Greenpeace in Beijing: “the process of industrialization in the past two decades is the cause of the disastrous consequences of this” http://dichvudanhvanban.com China’s growth prospects in 2016-2030 http://dichvudanhvanban.com Distortions in credit markets, the bias towards lower productivity heavy industry and other problems such as pervasive corruption, polluted environment,… http://dichvudanhvanban.com 6.1 4.7 Forcasting GDP through a model of OEDC http://dichvudanhvanban.com "The GDP growth rate is the sum of the growth in employment and the growth in output per employee China faces challenges in both of these categories," wrote author Jane Haltmaier, a senior adviser in the Fed's Division of International Finance The percentage of the population aged over 60 is expected to reach nearly 25 percent by 2030, from 12 percent in 2010 http://dichvudanhvanban.com Although China has enjoyed a productivity boom due to massive investment, that could be hard to sustain as rising living standards drive up domestic demand for consumer goods, diverting resources away from capital investment into spending Click to edit Master text styles http://dichvudanhvanban.com http://dichvudanhvanban.com ... 2.Fast labour productivity growth in China mainly driven by capital accumulation China’s economic development in the last 20 years is one of the fastest the world has ever seen Output increased