MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING THE THESIS WAS COMPLETED AT NATIONAL ECONOMICS UNIVERSITY NATIONAL ECONOMICS UNIVERSITY Scientific Supervisor: PROFESSOR PHd phan cong nghia nGUYEN THI HUONG Critic 1: : Critic 2: Statistical research Aggregate impact of Critic 3: tourism to economic growth in vietnam Research field: economics (economic statistics) code:: 62310101 code The thesis was defended in front of the board of The National Economics University At: on Date 2016 Copies of this thesis can be found at:: - National Library - National Economics University Library hanoi - 2016 INTRODUCTION The significance of the topic Tourism activities are increasingly playing an important role in economic and social development Tourism is becoming an indispensable demand in human’s cultural and social life Moreover, along with economic development, the demand for traveling increases continuously with several tourism forms Tourism is considered as a smokeless industry for having a great impact and significant contribution to the economic growth of many territories and countries in the whole world According to the World Travel & Tourism Council -WTTC (2012) statistics, the total revenue generated from tourism was about 9.2% of global Gross domestic product (GDP) with US$6.5 trillion and the employment in this sector was over 260 million people Forecasting in the next ten years, with an average of 4% growth rate per year, tourism activities will create value which accounts for 10% of global GDP, equivalent to USD $ 10 trillion per year The economy is developing, people living standards are increasingly improved; therefore tourism becomes a criterion to assess the life quality and living standards of the people from different social classes Consumer products in the tourism is to meet not only the essential requirements of daily life (food, clothing, housing, transportation, ) but also special needs of people (seeks for knowledge; explore nature, culture, history, ) Therefore, tourism activities are related to many industries in the economy The impact level and the spreading of tourism activities in the economy in relation of interdisciplinary and transnational scope are very significant In order to observe, measure, evaluate and analyze tourism activities, it is necessary to have international agreed scientific methodologies available So far there are different ways to assess and record the impact of tourism activities on the socio-economic development The impact of tourism activities can be assessed based on the results of direct measurement of tourism activities (from supply side) such as revenue, capital and labor… or total spending of tourists (from demand side) The question is which assessment reflects that in the most comprehensive and synthetic manner Moreover, it needs to allow detailed classification of different types of visitors to measure the impact, and at the same time to evaluate and analyze their contribution to the economy in the country and worldwide Around the world and in Viet Nam, many organizations and individuals have researched to measure and assess the impact of tourism activities on the economic growth within a region and a country However, international and national studies were unable to specify the using of non-competitive I-O Table, they also failed to explicit the role of the inbound tourism and domestic tourism when assessing the impact of tourism activities on economic growth Objectives and research questions 2.1 Objectives of the study This research proposes and builds the calculations to quantify the impact of tourism on economic growth in Vietnam in a comprehensive, adequate and feasible way based on non-competitive I-O Table It also considers the impact of tourism on economic growth through the expenditure of two groups of visitors (international visitors and domestic visitors) 2.2 Research question With the targets of evaluating the impact of tourism on economic growth in the most comprehensive and synthesis way, the research content answers the following questions: Key questions: Which method evaluates the total impact of inbound tourism and domestic tourism on the economic growth? The sub-questions: - How inbound tourism and domestic tourism impact directly on the value added (VA) and GDP? - How inbound tourism and domestic tourism impact indirectly on VA and GDP? - How total impact of domestic and inbound tourism effects economic growth and job creation? Subject and Scope of research - Research Subject: The impact of inbound tourism and domestic tourism on economic growth The impact of tourism should be considered in detail in two types of visitors to see the effects of each type of tourism on economic growth separately The separation also allows identifying the role and position of each visitor’s type in general picture This is a fundamental basis so as to research, analyze and propose the measures that enhance the impact and influence of tourism by each type of tourism on economic growth in detail and in a more appropriate way - Research scope: + Content: In this research scope, the thesis defines the model, sources of information and methodology to measure the tourism’s total impact in terms of economics on economic growth The thesis focuses on the study of the impact of inbound tourism and domestic tourism on economic growth through visitor’s expenditure and the non-competitive I-O table + In terms of time: The thesis uses secondary data to serve the experiment calculation with the most updated information published by the General Statistics Office (GSO) including: IO Table of Vietnam in 2012 and findings of the survey on visitor’s expenditure in 2013 + In terms of space: Methodology and experiment calculations in this thesis are built for all economies which have tourism activities; in particular, focus research on national tourism, including arriving international tourism and domestic tourism - The thesis has proposed 02 indicator groups for assessing the total impact of tourism on economic growth + Group of input indicator factor reflecting domestic tourism (including indicators reflecting international visitors and domestic visitors); + Group of output indicators reflecting total impact of inbound tourism and domestic tourism on economic growth includes 05 indicators: Gross Output of tourism, value added of tourism, gross domestic product generated from the impact of tourism, workers' income from tourism and tourism labor - The thesis proposes to use non-competitive IO table as calculation tools and clarify explicit roles of inbound tourism and domestic tourism when assessing the impact of tourism activities on economic growth The thesis proposed some recommendations to strengthen the impact of tourism on economic growth and enhance the statistical evaluation of tourism impact on economic growth Research methodology After reviewing some international and domestic research’s results relating to the topic research, the author selected the following research methods: - Methods of synthesis and analysis on the basis of the methodology of: System of National Accounts (SNA) of the United Nations Statistics; Tourism Satellite Account (TSA) of the UNWTO - Data utilization method available through: Inbound tourists surveys of GSO; Survey on domestic visitors of Vietnam National Administration of Tourism - Modeling Method: Using the relationship which has been quantified in I-O Table to calculate the total impact of the inbound tourism and domestic tourisminbound tourism and domestic tourism on economic growth New contributions of the thesis - The thesis has clarified the impact of the inbound tourism and domestic tourism on economic growth by assessing direct impact, indirect impact and total impact The structure of the thesis Besides the introduction and conclusion, the content of thesis including three chapters: Chapter 1: General theory issues on the total impact of tourism on economic growth Chapter 2: Methodology evaluating the total impact of tourism on economic growth Chapter 3: Assessing the total impact of tourism on Vietnam’s economic growth in 2013 5 CHAPTER GENERAL THEORY ISSUES ON THE TOTAL IMPACT OF TOURISM ON ECONOMIC GROWTH 1.1 Theory about tourism and the method of identifying tourism statistical indicators 1.1.1 The concept of tourism and tourism statistics 1.1.1.1 Tourism concept Tourism Satellite Account is a system of indicators, methodology that calculates the value of tourism activity in a country and internationally In Section 2.2 of the TSA: RMF 2008 released by the United Nations (2009, p.12), once again define the meaning of tourism as: "Tourism is defined by the activities of visitors who take a trip out of his/her usual environment for less than a year and for the main purpose other than to be employed by a resident entity in the place visited” Accordingly, tourism is identified when having all three conditions above: - In terms of space, visitors must go outside their regular environment, excludes trips within the accommodation, trips recurring nature between accommodation and workplace and other frequent trips; - Time travel activities of visitors last for less than a year; - In terms of purpose, the trip was not to earn money in visited area The thesis uses the concept of tourism and other concepts related to tourism under the TSA in order to consider the impact of tourism in all economic activities, which help measure the total impact on economic growth in a comprehensive and completed way 1.1.1.2 The concept of tourism statistics (1) Visitors; (2) Regular habitats; (3) Second House; (4) Length of trip; (5) The main purpose of the trip; (6) Tourism expenditures; (7) Tourism consumption; (8) Tourism products; (9) Tourism sector b Indicators reflecting domestic tourism c Indicators reflecting national tourism 1.1.2.3 Method calculating statistical indicators on inbound tourism and domestic tourism a Method calculating indicators reflecting inbound tourism b Method calculating the direct indicator of domestic tourism 1.1.2 The method to identify statistical indicators 1.1.2.1 Distinguish inbound tourism and domestic tourism Tourism is divided into inbound tourism and domestic tourism according to resident and non-resident 1.1.2.2 The statistical indicators of inbound tourism and domestic tourism a Indicators reflecting inbound tourism 1.2 Theory about economic growth and the method of identifying indicators reflecting economic growth 1.2.1 The concept of economic growth According to the SNA, economic growth is the increase in the volume of indicators reflecting the results of production activities of the entire economy in a given period, usually reflected by the increase in GDP indicators The thesis applies theory about economic growth according to SNA methodology which supports for statistical research to assess the total impact of tourism activities on economic growth in Vietnam 1.2.2 The method to identify indicators reflecting the economic growth 1.2.2.1 The concept and methodology of calculating Gross Output a Concept Gross Output (GO) is the total value of material products and services produced by manufacture of all economic activities generated in a given period of time (quarter or year) The Gross output is calculated according to the basic price and producer price (referred to as cost production) b Calculation method b1 Calculated directly from the output of products b2 Calculated revenues from consumption b3 Method calculating the sales b5 Method calculating for the production of specific business: Banking and insurance 1.2.2.2 The concept and methodology of value-added indicators a Concept Value added (VA) is the new value of the goods and services generated by the production process of an economic sector b Calculation method General formula calculated VA by the method of production: VA = GO - IC Value added at current prices is calculated by GO basic prices minus (-) intermediate consumption used prices 1.2.2.3 The concept and methodology of indicator of domestic products a Concept Gross domestic product (GDP) is the total economic indicators to reflect the new value of the goods and services generated by the entire economy in a given time period (month, quarter, months, months, years) GDP is always assessed by used price b Calculation method GDP is calculated by three methods: Production method, income approach method and used method 1.2.2.4 The concept and methodology of growth of total domestic product a Concept GDP growth rate is a percentage of GDP increased later period compared with the previous period GDP growth is usually calculated from GDP at constant prices (base year value) of the reporting year compared with the previous year reporting year Currently, when it comes to economic growth generally tied to GDP growth and some general economic indicators are concerned b Calculation method - GDP growth rate in the reporting year compared with the previous year is calculated at constant prices (base year value) by the following formula: dGDP = GDPn GDPn-1 x 100 - 100 Where: dGDP - GDP growth rate in the reporting year compared with the year previous reporting year (%) GDPn - Gross domestic product for the year at constant prices; GDPn-1 - Gross domestic product of the year previous reporting year at constant price; - Calculate the growth rate of GDP per time period (years) 1.3 Total impact of tourism to economic growth and expenditure indicators 1.3.1 The direct impact of tourism on economic growth 1.3.2 The indirect impact of tourism on economic growth 1.3.3 The total impact of tourism on economic growth 1.3.4 The indicators reflecting the impact of tourism on economic growth The thesis proposed 05 groups of indicators reflecting the direct impact, indirect and total impact of tourism on economic growth, including: (1) Gross output of tourism; (2) Value added of tourism; (3) Gross domestic product generated from the impact of tourism; (4) Labor income from tourism; (5) Employment tourism 9 10 CHAPTER METHODOLOGY TO ASSESS THE TOTAL IMPACT OF TOURISM ON ECONOMIC GROWTH 2.1 Research Model to study total impact of tourism on economic growth 2.1.1 Introduction to the Input-Output Table (I-O table) 2.1.1.1 Formation and development of the I-O table The I-O table is developed to support integrated analysis and assessment of economic activities in an economy In which, each sector is described in a linear relationship between physical products and services in terms of the input cost for the production process and the amount of products produced The relationship of all sectors in the entire economy is presented with a system of linear functions with the coefficients determined by technological processes 2.1.1.2 Contents of the IO table 2.1.2 Methodologies to assess total impact of tourism on economic growth based on I-O table In terms of users, tourism is disaggregated into two domains: the inbound tourism and domestic tourism Inbound tourism is reflected through indicators of spending by inbound tourists to Vietnam Domestic tourism is reflected through indicators of spending by domestic tourists Spending by inbound tourists and domestic tourists are reflected through the corresponding indicators of the total demand of the economy The two key indicators reflecting tourists’ spending are direct exports and individuals’ final expenditure in final consumption a Assumptions of the I-O table An I-O table is developed with some basic assumptions: linear assumption; assumptions about the price; assumption on imports b Structure of an I-O table An I-O table is divided into three main fields: Field I, Field II and Field III - Field I: presents intermediate expenditure in columns and intermediate consumption in rows; - Field II: presents the final consumption, including: Final consumption (households and the Government), Asset Accumulation (mobile and fixed), Exports and Imports; - Field III: presents the added value, including: the employee's income, depreciation of fixed assets, production tax and surplus value c Contents and indicators in the I-O table 2.1.1.3 Non-competitive I-O table In the normal competitive I-O table, the supply-demand relationship is described through the following equation: X = AX + Y (2.1) The matrix A describes technical input level to produce a unit of product This input includes input supplied from the domestic products and service sources (Ad) and input supplied from foreign sources (Am) A = Ad + Am (2.2) 2.1.3 Apply non-competitive I-O table to assess the total impact of tourism on economic growth Equation ∆X = (I-Ad)-1∆Yd is used to assess the impact on the entire economy, in which ∆Yd is the final change in demand of domestic products and services; as the initial impact vector used to quantify all the impact on economic sectors - Impact on production: ∆X = (I-Ad)-1∆Yd (2.6) According to the Handbook of National Accounting Input-Output Table Compilation and Analysis of the United Nations (General Statistics Office, 2003), the formula to estimate the total impact on the demand-supply relationship is as follows: + Regarding Value-added (VA) V= v X (2.7) In which: V: Changes of VA when there is change in GO X v: coefficient vector by line of VA + Regarding labour L= l X (2.8) In which: L: Change of labour when there is change in GO X l: coefficient vector on labour 11 12 2.1.4 Implications of direct, indirect and total assessment in I-O table Changes in final demand affect the entire economic system Changes in final demand may be resulted in by changes in the structure of domestic consumption of private sector, households or the Government in that country, or due to exports of goods and services In impact studies, changes in final demand are considered a direct impact, direct shock, and direct effects of initial impact because this is an exogenous shock which stimulates the entire economic system When the shock is caused by the final consumption demand (tourism consumption), the economy responds by creating new products (increases GO) through inter-agency transactions in the economy These are responses of economic sectors in changes of the final demand in sectors and are called indirect effects The total of direct impact and indirect impact to GO reflects the total impact which is made up of the interdependence among economic sectors It is the aggregated impact on the entire economy 2.2.1.3 Integrate the indicators of tourist expenses in the national account system Study of impact of tourism is considered from the expenditure of different types of tourism corresponding to the indicators reflecting the needs of using products of the I-O table and the SNA - Key expenses of domestic tourists is considered as final consumption of households; - Expenses of inbound tourists, included in goods and service export (direct export); 2.2 Identify data sources to assess the total impact of tourism on economic growth 2.2.1 Identify data sources for tourism 2.2.1.1 Identify data sources regarding inbound tourists In order to identify expenditure of inbound tourists, it is important to identify the data sources to collect data for the indicators: - Total number of inbound tourists, disaggregated by tourists staying overnights and tourists only visiting during the day; - Average expense of an inbound tourist, disaggregated by tourists staying overnights and tourists only visiting during the day 2.2.1.2 Identifying data sources for domestic tourists In order to identify the total expenses of domestic tourists, it is necessary to identify data sources to collect information for the following indicators: - Total domestic tourists, disaggregated by tourists staying overnights and tourists only visiting during the day; - Average expense of a domestic tourist, disaggregated by tourists staying overnights and tourists only visiting during the day 2.2.2 Identify data sources from the I-O table In order to measure and assess the total impact of tourism on the economy, it is necessary to have I-O table and identify some information from findings of the I-O survey - The I-O table of basic competitive price is converted to non-competitive ones - The product classification in the I-O used for research is identified according to the list of the expense items of inbound tourists and domestic tourists from findings of the survey on expenses of tourists - The share of circulation fee (including transport fee and trade fee) and product tax rate in the total product value according to groups of products identified to estimate trade fee, transport fee and tax of products for estimating the total impact of tourism to VA and GDP 2.2.3 Identify other relevant data sources Beside the data from the I-O table, the author of the thesis identifies some other data sources for comparison, assessment and formulation of coefficients applied for the research year - Absolute figures of national GDP and VA indicators at current prices of the research year for quantifying the total impact of inbound tourism and domestic tourism to GO, VA, and GDP - Product tax after deducting the subsidy and the rate of product tax of the research year are combined in groups of consumption products This indicator is identified for the whole economy, to support estimation of total impact of tourism to GDP of the whole economy - Labour information is disaggregated according to the classification of the research year to estimate the vector of labour coefficient in tourism sector 13 14 All of the above information is estimated and disseminated by the General Statistics Office annually or every five years 2.3 Steps to estimate parameters to assess the total impact of tourism on economic growth Based on the methodologies presented in item 2.1.3 and the data sources identified as above, estimate the total impact of inbound tourism and domestic tourism on economic growth, implemented for each type of expense of tourism according to the six following steps: Step Identify expense of inbound tourists and domestic tourists (1) Expenses of inbound tourists and domestic tourists according to the consumption value estimated from the average expense of a tourist and total number of tourists, based on the formula 2.10 as follows: Formula: Total expense of Average expense of an Total number of inbound inbound = X inbound tourists/ (2.10) tourists/domestic tourist/domestic tourist domestic tourists tourists (2) Based on the list of the tourists’ expenses, identify the list of tourism products consistent with the list of the I-O Table selected in the research model After that, the value of the tourists’ expense is imputed for the corresponding product categories (3) Convert expense of inbound tourists and domestic tourists from purchase price to basic price Step Compilation and processing in I-O Table (1) Integrate industries of the I-O Table and other information according to products categories of tourists’ expense (2) Identify the VA coefficient vectors, income of tworkers and employment compared with I-O Table according to the industry groups selected Identify the product tax rate compared with VA at current price of the research year as follows: The product tax rate compared with the VA of the research year = Total product tax at current price of the research year : VA at current price (2.11) of the research year (3) Calculate the matrix of the direct cost coefficient excluding imported products (Ad), matrix (I-Ad) and then the inverse matrix (I-Ad)-1 from the total I-O Table Matrix of the Unit Matrix of the total (2.12) indirect impact = matrix impact coefficient coefficient Step Identify GO of tourism The direct, indirect and total gross output of tourism is estimated as follows: (1) Direct gross output of inbound tourism and domestic tourism is equal to expense of inbound tourism and domestic tourism according to basic price: Expense of inbound Direct GO of inbound = tourists/domestic tourists tourists/domestic tourists (2) The indirect gross output of inbound tourism and domestic tourism is generated due to indirect impact of the total expense of tourists according to basic price and matrix coefficient of indirect impact: Matrix of Expense of tourists Indirect GO indirect impact = according to basic X (2.13) of tourism coefficient price (3) The total gross output of inbound tourism and domestic tourism is equal to total of direct GO and indirect GO: Total GO of Direct GO of Indirect GO of + (2.14) tourism = tourism tourism Step Identifying VA and GDP generated from impact of tourism (1) Direct, indirect and total VA of inbound tourism and domestic tourism is estimated according to the direct, indirect and total GO of tourism and VA coefficient vector compared with GO as follows: Vector of the GO of VA coefficient X (2.15) VA of tourism = tourism compared against GO 15 (2) Calculate the product tax generated from the direct, indirect and total impact of inbound tourism and domestic tourism for the economy: Product tax The rate of product tax VA X from tourism = compared with VA of the (2.16) of tourism research year (3) The GDP generated from the direct, indirect and total impact of inbound tourism and domestic tourism for the economy is calculated as follows: Product tax GDP generated from VA tourism activities = + from tourism (2.17) of tourism Step Identify income of workers from tourism Income of direct, indirect and total labour from inbound tourism and domestic tourism identified based on direct, indirect and total GO of tourism and the income coefficient vector of labour compared against GO: GO of Income coefficient vector Income of workers X of workers compared (2.18) from tourism = tourism against GO After calculating income of direct, indirect and total labour, according to the following formula: Income of the total Income of indirect Income of direct labour = + labour (2.19) labour Step Identify tourism labour Total tourism employment created by direct, indirect and total impact of inbound tourism and domestic tourism is estimated according to the following formula: Tourism Tourism employment GO = X (2.20) employment coefficient vector of tourism Based on the estimated GDP created by direct, indirect and total impact of inbound tourism and domestic tourism in absolute data, it is possible to identify the rate between GDP created by tourism and GDP of the whole economy 16 CHAPTER ASSESS TOTAL IMPACT OF TOURISM ON ECONOMIC GROWTH OF VIET NAM IN 2013 3.1 Collect, compile and process information to assess the total impact of tourism on economic growth on Viet Nam in 2013 3.1.1 Collect, compile and process information on tourism 3.1.1.1 Overview of tourism in Viet Nam a Potential of Viet Nam tourism Viet Nam is a country with diversified and rich tourism potential which is reflected in strengths related to vestiges, tourist attraction, UNESCO heritage, culture and festivals b Tourism activities in Viet Nam With the diversified and rich potential as mentioned above, tourism has been considered as a leading industry in Viet Nam In the past 15 years, Viet Nam tourism has significant changes reflected through the fact that the number of inbound tourists to Viet Nam increased from million to million visitors 3.1.1.2 Data sources on tourism of Viet Nam a Information on the total number of tourists - Total number of inbound tourists Information on the number of inbound tourists can be withdrawn from yearly statistical yearbook of the GSO This data has been compiled from information on immigration to Viet Nam through Immigration Department under Ministry of Public Security, the Border Gate Department, and the Border Guard Department of the Ministry of National Defense However, there is only information on the number of inbound tourists as the whole rather than broken down by visitors staying over nights and ones only travelling during the day In order to estimate the number of inbound tourists and domestic tourists broken down by tourists staying overnight and tourists only travelling during the day, the Tourism Information Centre the Viet Nam National Administration of Tourism conducted surveys in 2013 and 2014 - Total number of domestic tourists Information on the total number of domestic tourists is extracted from surveys of the Viet Nam National Administration of Tourism In order to disaggregate the total number of domestic tourists into those staying overnight 17 18 and those only travelling during the day, it is necessary to extract information from the sampling surveys on tourism of both the GSO and Viet Nam National Administration of Tourism 3.1.1.3 Collecting, compiling and processing information on tourism of Viet Nam a Collecting, compiling and processing information on number of tourists and average expense per tourist After considering and assessing information from different sources, the research is based on the principles of selecting data for calculation as follows: - Regarding tourism statistics from different sources, select data which has been officially published by the GSO and the Viet Nam National Administration of Tourism; - Regarding data that the GSO does not have, such as; number of domestic tourists, tourists staying overnight, tourists travelling during the day…, author of the thesis just used information from surveys of the Viet Nam National Administration for Tourism b Collecting, compiling and processing information on expense of tourists (1) Calculate total expense of inbound tourists and domestic tourists according to purchase price According to data on average expense of an inbound tourist or domestic tourist; number of inbound tourists and domestic tourists disaggregated into those staying overnight and those travelling during the day only according to each item by purchase price (2) Identify the list of product categories The list of expense items according to tourism products in surveys on tourists’ expense is used as a basis to identify the product categories which is systematically applied in the research model After that, arrange them appropriately with the VSIC 2007 and the I-O Table 2012 (3) Recalculate expense of inbound tourists and domestic tourists according to basic price Actual expense of tourists in surveys is published in purchase price, and expense in the I-O Table is in basic price, excluding product tax, trade and transport fee Thus, it is necessary to convert expense of inbound tourists from purchase to basic price 3.1.2 Collecting, compiling and processing information from the I-O table According to step in item 2.3 of Chapter 2, data in the I-O Table in 2012, basic price of GSO including 164 categories of products combined into categories of tourism products, equal to expense of tourists in surveys conducted by the GSO Based on that, estimate the matrix of direct expense coefficient at noncompetitive mode (excluding imported products) Ad; the total expense coefficient is equal to (I-Ad)-1 and the matrix of indirect expense coefficient 3.1.3 Other data collecting, compiling and processing on income and employment - Information on number of labour in 2012 and GO in 2012 published by the GSO in 2015 in the Statistical Yearbook is compiled according to the eight selected groups of tourism products Estimate the vector of employment coefficient by industry is according to the following formula: The vector of Gross Output in employment coefficient = Employment in 2012 : 2012 in 2012 - The I-O Table 2012 provides information on VA coefficient vector, income of the workers compared with the GO by industry categories 3.2 Estimate indicators reflecting tourism impact on economic growth of Viet Nam in 2013 Applying methods presented from step to step in item 2.3 of Chapter in order to calculate indicators reflecting impact of tourism on economic growth of Viet Nam in 2013 The results include the following indicators: VA, GDP, income of workers and employment of inbound tourism and domestic tourism according to direct, indirect and total assessment 3.2.1 Gross Output of tourism in 2013 According to the estimate of the thesis, the total direct, indirect and total GO of the inbound tourism is respectively 1.43 times; 1.48 times and 1.45 times larger than domestic tourism This shows that in 2013, the inbound tourism has greater impact on domestic tourism The total GO is 1.784 times larger than direct GO of inbound tourism; while this rate of domestic tourism is 1.756 times These rates show that in 2013, inbound tourism has better impact on the 19 whole economy 3.2.2 Value added of tourism in 2013 Considering the impact of inbound tourism, in 2013 direct impact of inbound tourism on exporting created total VA of VND70,795 billion and indirect impact which affected other industries with the indirect VA of VND57,257 billion Thus, the total impact on the VA on the whole economy was VND128,052 billion, accounting for 3.6% GDP of Viet Nam In which, total impact of inbound tourism on VA of the accommodation services was VND34,930 billion (accounting for 27.3% of the total impact), restaurant services with VND19,745 billion (15.4%), sightseeing services with VND16,221 billion (12.7%) and passenger transport services of VND14,613 billion (11.4%) Domestic tourism reflects similar characteristics in terms of impact on VA of different industries, though the levels are a little bit different Expense of domestic tourists affecting VA of the whole economy was VND86,017 billion, accounting for 2.4% GDP The total impact of domestic tourism created VA of some corresponding typical industries such as: accommodation services of VND21,057 billion (accounting for 24.5% total impact of domestic tourism on VA of the whole economy), restaurant services of VND14,381 billion (16.7 %); sightseeing of 10,754 billion (12.5%)… 3.2.3 Total GDP generated from impact of tourism in 2013 GDP generated from direct, indirect and total impact of inbound tourism and domestic tourism is presented in Table 3.13 Accordingly, GDP estimated from the VA and the rate of product tax per VA at current price in 2013 was: 0.119 (= VND362,375 billion/VND3,221,887 billion) – GSO, Yearbook in 2015 (p 172) GDP of tourism is estimated with total VA of tourism at basic price combined with the product tax of tourism 3.2.4 Income of tourism workers The direct impact of inbound tourism on income of workers was VND44,053 billion, accounting for 62.2% VA due to the direct impact At the same time, the indirect impact of domestic tourism on this indicator was VND37,291 billion, accounting for 65% of VA resulted by indirect impact The results of direct and indirect impact of domestic tourism are also similar 3.2.5 Tourism employment Total employment generated in different industries due to the impact of 20 inbound tourism and domestic tourism on the economy (Table 3.15) was for 2,340,730 workers and 1,592,338 workers respectively, equal to 4.5% and 3% compared with the total number of employment of the whole country before 2013 Thus, the total employment in industries supporting tourists in 2013 was estimated at 3,933,068 workers, accounting for 7.5 % of the total employment of the country 3.3 Comments, assessment and recommendations 3.3.1 Comments and assessments From the estimates of the indicators such as: VA, GDP, income of workers and employment of inbound tourism and domestic tourism reflects impact of these two types of tourism on economic growth of Viet Nam in 2013, specifically: (1) Expense of inbound tourists and domestic tourists according to basic price was VND158,479 billion and VND110,828 billion, total VA resulted by impact from expense of inbound tourists and domestic tourists at basic price was VND128,052 billion and VND86,017 billion The rate between expense of inbound tourists and domestic tourists at basic price was 1.43 times (=158,479/110,828), while the rate between total GDP of inbound tourists and total GDP of domestic tourists was 1.50 times (=143,398/96,326) This shows that the total impact on the economy by inbound tourism was higher than that of domestic tourism (2) The comparison data shows that in some industries, the total VA is much larger than the expense of the two groups of tourists at basic price These industries are: - Trade: the total VA was respectively 2.9 times and 2.7 times higher than the real expense of inbound tourists and domestic tourists in this sector; - Tourism: total VA of sightseeing activities compared to the expense of inbound tourists and domestic tourists was 1.3 and 1.4 times respectively; - These rates in health service activities are highest with about 3.6 times and times respectively; in entertainment activities, these rates were 1.8 times and nearly 2.3 times respectively This shows that the expense of the two groups to the service sector categories includes: Trade; Sightseeing; Health services and Entertainment have great impact on total VA (from 1.4 times to times) At the same time, expense of inbound tourists and domestic tourists in other industries has lower impact on 21 22 the total VA (smaller than 1) 3.3.1.2 Assessing the GDP of tourism According to the estimates presented in Table 3.17, the total GDP of inbound tourism and domestic tourism was VND143,398 billion and VND96.326 billion respectively, equal to 4.0% and 2.69% of GDP of the whole country 3.3.1.3 Assessing employment of the inbound tourism and domestic tourism If expense of inbound tourists was 1.42 times higher than that of domestic tourists, the total employment of the former was 1.46 times higher than that of the latter (=1,780,732/1,217,330) This rate once again shows greater impact of inbound tourism on the economy compared against domestic tourism The total tourism employment was respectively 1.85 times and 1.83 times higher than direct employment of inbound tourism and domestic tourism In which, this rate in trade sector was times, sightseeing was more than two times and health services was more than times, entertainment was nearly times This has further confirmed the role and better impact of service sectors supporting tourism on the economy industries which create high total impact such as trade, sightseeing services, health services, entertainment, it is important to create favourable conditions to encourage spending to increase impact on economic growth in depth Hence, it is possible to identify the direction for investment, policies to support development for industries with higher total impact, means better effects to the economy 3.3.2.3 Policies to ensure quality and efficiency of inbound tourism According to the estimates, the expense of inbound tourists has greater impact on economic growth, so it is necessary to pay attention to policies to advertise and attract international tourists to Viet Nam This shows that in order to improve results and efficiency of tourism business activities, it is important to enlarge the international tourism markets both in term of volume and quality of inbound tourists 3.3.2 Recommendations to push tourism impact on economic growth 3.3.2.1 Policy to attract tourists According to the approach and assessment of the Thesis, the total tourism impact on economic growth depends on total expense of inbound tourists and domestic tourists Total expense of tourists depends on the average expense of a tourist and number of tourists - In terms of average expense of an inbound tourist and a domestic tourist, there is always difference In order to increase the average expense of a tourist, it is necessary to analyse tourist markets according to groups to identify groups of countries with high and stable expense - In terms of increase in number of tourists: attracting tourists to increase the number of tourists is the work that most of the countries need to implement to push growth of tourism as well as to increase impact of tourism on economic growth 3.3.2.2 Policy to stipulate spending Estimates in the thesis shows that the difference in tourist’s spending structure results in different impact levels on economic growth For some 3.3.3 Recommendations on strengthening statistics to assess impact of tourism on economic growth 3.3.3.1 Unify and standardize relevant concepts - First of all, it is important to unify and standardize concepts on domestic tourists to identify and measure expense of this group to build foundation to estimate its impact on economic growth and job creation in the economy - Very detailed classification in the notation of the relevant indicators to identify and measure expense of tourists is also a content which need to be paid with attention from the time of building concepts - It is necessary to consider conducting surveys on domestic tourism with survey units are households according to recommendations of the World Tourism Organisation 3.3.3.2 Unification of calculation methods and information sources It is necessary to agree on the methods to assess impact of tourism based on the demand (from expense of tourists) and based on the supply (spreading effects) of tourism through expense of tourists on economic growth and job creation From there, build concrete and clear estimation steps, clarify estimation of these indicators 3.3.3.3 Task division and cooperation in implementation Implementation of these indicators is closely combined with the compilation of TSA and SNA, so it is necessary to divide the tasks and 23 24 cooperate in implementation corresponding to functions and tasks of related agencies, mainly between the GSO and the Viet Nam National Administration of Tourism First of all, develop cooperation mechanisms through interministerial circulars or regulations on sharing and providing information for the indicator system of common interest with specific tables, forms on contents, scope, and due date for reporting and methods to share information the case of Viet Nam in 2013 Through which, comment and assess the estimation findings and propose some recommendations to push the total impact of tourism on economic growth as well as strengthen statistics work to assess the total impact of tourism on economic growth of Viet Nam in the coming time Shortcomings of the thesis: though the Thesis proposed methods to calculate the total impact of tourism on the economy, the calculation should be considered for extension with some similar service sectors (such as information and communication, individual and community services…) to see the total impact of tourism on economic growth more clearly However, due to difficulties in input information, this content should subject to further study in the future CONCLUSION Demand for travelling of domestic tourists and international tourists tends to increase, which shows the role of the tourism sector in socio-economic development Expense of tourists has direct impact on development of not only tourism branches, companies but also many other related economic activities The inter-agencies, inter-region, and international nature of tourism is formed and developed Thus, it is necessary to study measurement and assessment on the impact of tourism on economic growth in the connection with all related industries and the key components of tourism in order to fully and concretely assess and analyse the situation to support research and management; and introduce better policies to support these activities in the coming time In order to accurately and fully assess the role of inbound tourism and domestic tourism, increase efficiency of each type of tourism, the thesis has applied the statistical theory of SNA to assess the total impact of inbound tourism and domestic tourism on economic growth In order to implement such goal, the thesis has implemented some contents as follows: (1) Systematise and clarify some basic theories on tourism, economic growth, the relationship between tourism and economic growth from supply side, and demand side in inter-agency impact and effect of the whole economy based on the theory foundation of TSA and SNA (2) Building methods to assess the total impact of inbound tourism and domestic tourism on economic growth of Viet Nam based on expense of inbound tourists, domestic tourists and I-O Table (3) Based on the assessment methods proposed, the Thesis piloted the estimation of total impact of inbound tourism and domestic tourism on growth in LIST OF THE AUTHOR’S PUBLISHED WORKS RELATED TO THE THESIS Nguyen Thi Huong (2011) ; Chairman, Facility level project “Completing the content of System of National accounts as modified recommendation of Statistical agency of the United Nations (SNA) 200 ”; Institute of Statistical Science; Nguyen Thi Huong (2012), “Research and Recommendation applied some content innovation of SNA 2008 in Vietnam” Statistical Science Information Paper, No 2, Nguyen Thi Huong (2013), “ Process indicators compiled production value, added value applied to the central and local, Statistical Science Information” Statistical Science Information Paper, No.3; Nguyen Thi Huong (2014),Chairman, Ministry level project “Completed research and process computerization of aggregate indicators of production value, added value applied to the central and local ", Institute of Statistical Science; Nguyen Thi Huong (2015), “Applying I-O table to assess the impact of tourism to sustainable economic growth in Vietnam”, Science Convention summary record of “Research on building compilation process of Gross Domestic Product green indicators in Vietnam” ;Institute of Statistical Science; Nguyen Thi Huong(2015), “I-O Table application in study of synthetic impact of tourism on economic growth” Figures and Events Journal, No.6; Nguyen Thi Huong (2015), “Construction Method on builidng uncompetitive I-O Table”, Economy and Forecast Journal, Ministry of Planning and Investment, No.7; Nguyen Thi Huong (2015), “Method assessment about the aggregate impact of tourism on economic growth in the uncompetive I-O model”, Science Convention summary record,Faculty of Statistics, Naional Economics University, October Nguyen Thi Huong (2016), “Evaluate the aggregated impact of tourism on economic growth in Vietnam through interdisciplinary balance sheet”, Journal of Economics and Development, National Economics University, No.232(II), October/2016  ... in a linear relationship between physical products and services in terms of the input cost for the 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