Rare earths and RETS

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Department of Mineral & Energy Economics Rare Earth Markets and Their Affects on Solar and Wind Power Professor Daniel J Packey, Ph.D Head of the Department of Mineral and Energy Economics Curtin Graduate School of Business Curtin University Department of Mineral & Energy Economics Department of Mineral & Energy Economics Department of Mineral & Energy Economics Few (if any) Known Substitutes Department of Mineral & Energy Economics Department of Mineral & Energy Economics Department of Mineral & Energy Economics Source: USGS Department of Mineral & Energy Economics 2009 Mine Production World Mine Production and Reserves (2009 Data) Country Production (Metric Ton) Reserves (Metric Ton) United States insignificant 13,000,000 Australia insignificant 5,400,000 Brazil 650 48,000 China 120,000 36,000,000 not available 19,000,000 2,700 3,100,000 380 30,000 not available 22,000,000 124,000 99,000,000 Commonwealth of Independent States India Malaysia Other countries World total (rounded) Source: USGS Department of Mineral & Energy Economics Source: USGS Department of Mineral & Energy Economics Department of Mineral & Energy Economics Department of Mineral & Energy Economics Windpower developments New Vestas Largest Windmills are still wire wraped, geared generators The Permanent Magnet markets will be strongly influenced by the Chinese Control of the Rare Earth Markets Department of Mineral & Energy Economics Thin Film PV All currently manufactured thin film PV solar cells need either Indium or Tellurium – both of which are Rare Earth Elements Source: USGS Department of Mineral & Energy Economics Department of Mineral & Energy Economics Department of Mineral & Energy Economics Department of Mineral & Energy Economics Department of Mineral & Energy Economics Chinese Market Participation The total market share for Chinese photovoltaics manufacturers is 27% Mostly thin film photovoltaics Source: USGS Department of Mineral & Energy Economics A Potential Chinese Development Strategy There's another factor that could increase China's role as a central figure in the renewables space: Its control of 95% of the rare earth resources like Indium, Gallium and Lithium These are central to the functionality of solar cells (CIGS and CdTe) and battery technologies for automotive and power storage applications This is not a surprise But the announcement from Chinese officials last month (July 2010) that it would decrease shipment of these resources by 72% certainly was The goal is for China to lure technology companies over to the country by giving them access to restricted resources If it works, we may see a lot more clean energy firms moving over to China Source: ttp://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2010/08/rare-earthresources-increase-chinese-clout Department of Mineral & Energy Economics Department of Mineral & Energy Economics Potential Competition in Photovoltaics The new solar cells convert light into electricity using a semiconductor material made of copper, zinc, tin, and sulfur all abundant elements as well as the relatively rare element selenium (CZTS) Reaching near-commercial efficiency levels is a "breakthrough for this technology," says Matthew Beard, a senior scientist at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, who was not involved with the work Department of Mineral & Energy Economics Photovoltaic Developments PV Thin Films will be significantly influenced by Chinese Rare Earth Market Control Due to market share soften by Availability of Potential Substitutes Department of Mineral & Energy Economics Rare Earth/ Wind Power and Solar Market Future Chinese will continue to dominant the rare earth refinery market due to refinery by-products This is independent of ore resources and They are likely to use this to access (and influence) new modern renewable energy (and other) technologies markets Department of Mineral & Energy Economics Department of Mineral & Energy Economics The End [...]... Leveraging Resource Advantages China’s export and tax regimes on Rare Earth Oxides, element and metals restricts supply outside of China and “could be seen as a lure to bring Rare Earth Technology manufacturing facilities into China where the export quotas do not apply.” Source: USGS Department of Mineral & Energy Economics "There is oil in the Middle East There is Rare Earth in China" Deng Xiaoping (1992)... Economics Permanent Magnet Rare Earth Supply Chain Department of Mineral & Energy Economics Department of Mineral & Energy Economics Department of Mineral & Energy Economics Source: Dr Bogi Jensen Department of Mineral & Energy Economics Dependency Permanent magnets for generators and other electrical machine consume 40% of rare earth based magnets In 2010, 26,000 tons of Rare Earths 2015 estimate is...Department of Mineral & Energy Economics Source: USGS Department of Mineral & Energy Economics Rare Earths Price Index 2002-2010 Department of Mineral & Energy Economics REO Price Increases in 2010 Department of Mineral & Energy Economics Market Domination China has significant influence of rare earth pricing and has, in the past, used it to the disadvantage of competitors The financial markets may not... monopoly can be viewed as sovereign dominion over critical resources, related technology and intellectual property Source: USGS Department of Mineral & Energy Economics Rare Earth Processing Salt or Caustic Fusion Acid leaching Multistage solvent extraction Resulting in: A dark grey slightly radioactive (Thorium and/ or Uranium) sludge laced with toxic compounds Department of Mineral & Energy Economics... wraped, geared generators The Permanent Magnet markets will be strongly influenced by the Chinese Control of the Rare Earth Markets Department of Mineral & Energy Economics Thin Film PV All currently manufactured thin film PV solar cells need either Indium or Tellurium – both of which are Rare Earth Elements Source: USGS Department of Mineral & Energy Economics Department of Mineral & Energy Economics
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