Effective Aid Coordination in Lao PDR Policy Implication For Power Sector Development

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MINISTRY OF EDUCATION LAO NATIONALUNIVERSITY MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING NATIONAL ECONOMICS UNIVERSITY Khammany INTHIRATH EFFECTIVE AID COORDINATION IN LAO PDR: POLICY IMPLICATIONS FOR POWER SECTOR DEVELOPMENT Specialty : Investment Economics (Development Economics) Code : 62.31.05.01 Supervisor: Assoc.Prof.Dr Nguyen Thanh Ha A dissertation submitted to the National Economics University in fulfillment of requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Economics Vientiane, 2013 iii ACKNOWLEDGMENT I would like to sincerely thank many people whom provided much support into producing this thesis and paving the way for the research topic to be one of the significant findings I wish to express my profound gratitude to my supervisor Associate Professor Dr NGUYEN Thanh Ha, National Economics University (Vietnam), for his great support and guidance throughout my study His encouragement and constant attention contributed significantly to the outcome of this research I am grateful to my sponsors such as the Ministry of Energy and Mining and the National University of Laos in enabling me to achieve a higher education at National Economics University, Vietnam Many thanks to all interviewees whom shared knowledge and ideas My sincere thanks out to the Lao Government officers from the Government Office, Ministry of Energy and Mines, H.E Mr Soulivong DARAVONG, Minister of Energy and Mines, etc and many other officers whom were involved in my research The European Commission Lao PDR Office international staff, the World Bank residential office and United Nations Development Programme staff who are involved in the aid effectiveness agenda in Laos and friends from development communities were all of assistance in this reseach Last but not least, many thanks are due to my wife and my family who provided me endless love with support and strength through out of my life iv TABLE OF CONTENTS DECLARATION ii ACKNOWLEDGMENT iii TABLE OF CONTENTS iv ABBREVIATION vi ABSTRACT Error! Bookmark not defined RATIONALE xi CHAPTER LITERATURE REVIEW CHAPTER THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK ON ODA COORDINATION EFFECTIVENESS 2.1 Development Theory 2.2 Development Aid 2.2.1 Donor Motives 2.2.2 Defining Official Development Assistance (ODA) 2.3 Aid coordination and its effectiveness 10 2.4 Dimensions of Development Assistance Coordination 13 2.5 Sector Wide Approach and Programme Based Approach 14 2.6 Principles of Effective Aid Coordination .15 CHAPTER KEY LESSONS LEARNT FOR LAO PDR 16 3.1 Lesson from Vietnam 16 3.2 Lesson from Timor L’Este 20 3.3 Comparative Lessons .23 CHAPTER HOW ODA COORDINATION IMPLEMENTED IN LAO 26 4.1 Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) 26 4.2 Paris Declaration 28 4.3 Vientiane Declaration and Country Action Plan (CAP) .28 4.4 The Round Table Meeting/Process (RTM/RTP) 30 v 4.5 Sector Working Groups (SWGs) 31 4.6 Critiques 34 4.7 Current ODA in Lao P.D.R .39 4.8 Effort of Government of Lao PDR .44 4.9 Coordination in Practice 45 4.10 Sectorial Working Groups (SWGs) .46 4.11 Evolution of Current Coordination System 47 4.12 OECD DAC Survey .49 4.13 International Development Agencies 51 CHAPTER POLICY IMPLICATIONS FOR POWER SECTOR DEVELOPMENT 55 5.3 Power Sector Policy 74 5.4 Power Sector Strategy towards 2025 74 5.5 Recommendations 78 5.6 Regional Coordination Effort .80 CONCLUSION 82 REFERENCES 84 vi ABBREVIATION ADB Asian Development Bank AI Avian Influenza AIDS Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome AP Action Plan CAP Country Action Plan CAW Country Analytic Work CDF Capacity Development Framework CPI Committee for Planning and Investment DAC Development Assistance Committee DIC Department of International Cooperation (MoFA) DP Development Partner DSA Daily Subsistence Allowance EC European Commission FAO Food and Agriculture Organization FY Fiscal Year FW Framework GoL Government of Lao PDR HCS Hanoi Core Statement HIV Human Immunodeficiency Virus INTOSAI International Organization of Supreme Audit Institution Lao NCAW Lao National Commission for the Advancement ofWomen LWU Lao Women’s Union MAF Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry vii MCTPC Ministry of Construction, Transport, Post and Communications MDG Millennium Development Goals MoE Ministry of Education MoF Ministry of Finance MoFA Ministry of Foreign Affairs MoH Ministry of Health MoU Memorandum of Understanding MTEF Medium Term Expenditure Framework NGO Non-Government Organization NSEDP National Socio-Economic Development Plan ODA Official Development Assistance OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development PACSA Public Administration and Civil Service Authority PBA Program Based Approach PEMSP Public Expenditure Management Strengthening Program PFM Public Financial Management PGAE Partnership Group on Aid Effectiveness PIP Public Investment Program PIU Project Implementation Unit PMU Project Management Unit PrMO Procurement Monitoring Office RTIM Round Table Information/Implementation Meeting RTM Round Table Meeting SIDA Swedish International Development Agency viii STEA Science, Technology and Environment Association SWG Sector Working Group TC Technical Cooperation TSA Treasury Single Account UNCT United Nations Country Team UNDP United Nations Development Program UNFPA United National Population Fund UXO Unexploded Ordinance VD Vientiane Declaration (on Aid Effectiveness) WB World Bank WHO World Health Organization ix ABSTRACT Lao PDR has a lengthy history, abundant and natural-resource-rich country with plenty of minerals, rivers and creeks which are seen to be hidden strengths for the development of power, particularly hydropower, thermal, wind power, and solar energy Total energy demand of the Lao People's Democratic Republic was 2.4 million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) in 2010, with an annual increment of to 4% in parallel.with stable economic growth Therefore, it is estimated that total energy demand in 2025 will be 6.4 million tons, approximately 2.6 times current demand In terms of sector-wise demand, the industrial sector accounts for about 31%, the transportation sector for about 29%, the residential sector for about 29%, the commercial sector for about 10%, and the agricultural sector for about 1% Among these, the industrial sector and the transportation sector, in particular, show higher annual increases of l5% and 8%, respectively These are sectors where remarkable growth of demand is expected Currently, the major energy supply sources are firewood/charcoal (about 47%), petroleum (about l9%), and hydropower (about 19%) However, in view of a sharp rise in energy consumption in the transportation and the industrial sectors, it is thought that the petroleum contribution of overall energy sources will be about 60% in 2025 In addition, the share of electricity is expected to grow substantially as the electrification rate increases from the current level of abofi 70% to 90% in 2020, and electricity consumption will increase sharply due to increasing use of home appliances The Government of Lao PDR is expected to establish institutions to secure energy efficiently by making reliable energy demand forecasts and formulating an appropriate energy policy and supply pian The purpose of this research is to find what is “effective aid coordination” particularly drawing from the case study of Lao PDR and lessons from successful cases x and what possible recommendations for power sector development are The study explore extensive literature in aid effectiveness, with an in-depth interview with the managers, leaders, practitioners etc Information synthesis is used in to analyze the data It is proposed that a solution to the problem of poor delivery of ODA is that the Lao PDR governement, in general and power sector, in particular must improve its ODA spending systems and incorporate aid budgets into the national budget and development plans It is vital to encourage the Government of Lao PDR to lead their own development agenda and support development according to local priorities The results suggest that it is not just a matter of coordinating aid effectively, but the aid industry needs the right capacity and people to be involved Capacity building is much needed within the recipient national offices as well as many of the international donor agencies This would allow the local government to take the lead and prioritize the commitments signed in the Paris Declaration, the Vientiane Declaration and the Millennium Development Goals It is recommended by many practitioners that the number of agencies working in decision making processes in the aid effectiveness agenda in Lao PDR should be limited to reduce transaction costs and promote clear communication within the development community However different environments such as Timor L’Este, suggests that civil society should be involved more and that donor agencies should not take the lead in aid delivery The key point to be learnt is that ODA needs to enhance its efficiency through the best use of limited resources, aligning with national planning, programming, monitoring and reporting processes, strategic documents, and priorities There should be flexibility to establish and abolish donor coordination groups, avoiding administrative overburden of public administration staff, while attempting to comply with donor requirements, established systems and procedures for programming of donor’s funds The effective use of existing national planning, monitoring structures, equipped with national leadership and ownership in aid coordination should be taken into account xi RATIONALE As a country condition of mountainously and rich of water resources, Lao PDR is having 23,000 MW exploitable hydro power potential With a quick development of economic and government policy on attraction of the foreign investment, those hydropower potential has been step to step developed for both domestic consumption and export for country income generation Continue of economic growth is needed to alleviate poverty and achieve social development goals but the policy options for achieving this are constrained by the small domestic economy and limited trade opportunities Therefore, hydropower projects are a development opportunity for both local and central of Lao PDR in overall development The power policy of Lao government aim to establish a priority policy of developing the country’s potential energy resources to provide a low cost source of energy that can meet export and domestic policy objectives and promotion of sustainable development The country now has installed power generation capacity of over 3,000 MW, of more than 13 hydro power projects or about 6,000 MW are under construction and more than 6,000 MW are under various stages of development by 2025, it is expected that export would be 80-85% of developed capacities To transmit of those power there are a strategy of domestic and international grid development where it can be divided into domestic interconnection (connection of Northern to Southern part of Lao PDR) and regional interconnection (connection of Lao PDR to neighboring countries for power exporting) The Memorandum Of Understanding (MOU) was signed for supply of power between Lao and Thailand are 7,000 MW and 5,000 MW between Lao and Vietnam by 2020 For Lao PDR, Official Development Assistance (ODA) is very important mechanism to promote the potential of investment fund, technology, marketing, management experiences, take part of job creation, increase of income level, upgrade of country development level Therefore, promotion and attraction of ODA 117 12 What is the role of the Development Partner Coordination Units? 13 Who makes decisions in the Development Partner Coordination Units? Section 4: Organization of Development Partner Coordination Units 14 Is the donor coordination unit a standalone unit or is part of a larger unit? 15 What is the name of the department under which the Development Partner Coordination Units exists? 16 How many coordination units you have? 17 How many non-governmental organizations (NGOs) are working in the energy sector? 18 How many international NGOs (INGOs) are working in the your sector? 19 How many people work in the Development Partner Coordination Units? 20 Who makes up the Development Partner Coordination Units? 21 How many development partners are active in your institution? Section 5: Financing 22 How is the Development Partner Coordination Units supported? 23 How are the Development Partners’ Funds channeled through your institution? 24 What type of budget support are the Development Partners providing? 25 What are the contractual arrangements that govern the relationship with the Development Partners in your institute? 26 How you make decisions in terms of funds allocation and reallocation? 27 Do you monitor the expenditures by different donors/NGOs? 28 For what kind of donor/NGO projects/activities you monitor the expenditures? 29 Please specify how you link donor/NGO expenditure monitoring with your donor coordination? 30 Who pays for the donor coordination unit activities? Section 6: Strengths and Accomplishments 31 What you consider to be the strengths of Development Partner Coordination Units? 32 How would you rate the efficiency (time/money/outputs) of the donor coordination activities? 118 33 How you monitor the activities that have to be accomplished by different donors/NGOs? 34 Do you have a comprehensive energy sector plan which comprises most of the donors/NGOs activities? 35 Does the plan have output and/or outcomes indicators? 36 How did you establish the indicators? 37 Are there certain elements of your donor coordination activities that you would like to highlight or describe further? Section 7: Challenges 38 What you consider to be the weaknesses of the Development Partner Coordination Units? 39 What you consider to be the major/important internal challenges for the unit? 40 Do you monitor the flow of funds (incoming) from donors/ NGO activities? 41 Are the funds entering regularly (as scheduled)? 42 Do you know when different donors’ and international and national NGOs’ support will expire? 43 Do you map the duration and expiration of donors’ and NGOs’ support? 44 How is the Ministry of Energy and Mines planning to respond to the phasing out/expiration of donors’ and NGOs’ support? 119 APENDIX The List of Interviewees (Full name, capacity, name of organization, Contact number) Prime Mister’s office, National Committee For Business Development 01 People Mr Phayvanh CHANHDAVONG Deputy Director General Executive Secretary to the Minister, President of NCBD Mobile Phone: 8520 55527829 Email: chandavong@yahoo.com Ministry of Planning and Investment People Dr Bounthavy SYSOUPHANHTHONG, Vice-Minister of Ministry of Planning and Investment Office Tel : 85621 217020 Dr Kikeo, Director General of Ministry of Planning and Investment Office Office Tel : 85621 217010 Mr Phesai PHIATHEP, Director General of Planning Department Office Tel : 85621 217009 Mr Achong LAOMAO, Acting Director General of Investment Promotion Department Office Tel : 85621 223002 Ms Sisoumboun AONAVONG, Acting Director General of Internal Corporation Department Office Tel : 85621 216755 Ministry of Justice People Mr Vilath PHEWON Director General of Ministry of Justice Office Mobile Phone : 85620 99801552 Ministry of Education and Sport People Dr Saikhong SAINASIN, Vice Dean of National University of Lao Office Tel : 85621 770381 Dr Phosy CHANHMING, Deputy Director Research Office of National University of Lao Mobile phone: 85620 23300555 E-mail : phosyc@gmail.com Ministry of Energy and Mines (MEM) People 120 Mr Viraphonh VIRAVONG, Vice-Minister of Ministry of Energy and Mines Office Tel: 85621 413000/454614 Dr Sinava SOUPHANOUVONG, Vice-Minister of Ministry of Energy and Mines Office Tel: 85621 413000 Dr Bountheung PHENGVONGSA, Director General of Ministry of Energy and Mines Office Mobile Phone : 85620 55519338 Dr Daovong PHONKEO, Director General of Power Policy and Planning Department Mobile Phone : 85620 99801592 E-mail daovongph@yahoo.com Dr Xayphone BOUNSOU, Vice Minister Assistant, Deputy Manager of Planning Division Mobile phone: 85620 22435770 E-mail: xayphone3000@yahoo.co.jp Mr Saypaseuth PHOMSOUPHA, Director General of Business Department Mobile phone : 85620 45253940 E-mail: xayphaseuth@deb.gov.la Mr Sisoukan SAYARATH, Director General of Energy Management Department Mobile phone :85620 99801583 E-mail: sisoukansayarath@yahoo.com Mr Hatsady SISOURAYH, Director General of Institute of Renewable Energy Promotion Mobile: 85620 55511537 E-mail: hatsady@demem.org Mr Stuart GLAUBERMAN, Public Relations Advisor (America) to the Department of Energy Policy and Planning Mobile phone : 85620 28121844 E-mail: stuxb808@gmail.com World Bank (WB) People Mr Veasna BUN, WB Team Leader for Rural Electrification Phase II Project Office Tel : 85621 266200 E-mail : vbun@worldbank.org International Finance Corporation (IFC) People Mr Almilion CHATZINIKOLAOU ADB Representative to Lao PDR, Office Tel: 85621 266300 Website : www.ifc.org/Mekong Ms Sisomsouk SAIMOUNKHOUN, Office Administrator of IFC Mobile Phone: 85620 55518670 Asian Development Bank (ADB) E-mail: tsaimoungkhoun@ifc.org People Mr Takafumi Kadono, Energy Special Vietnam Resident Mission Position, Office Tel: +844 39331374 E-mail: tkadono@adb.org 121 Mr Phosay PHOMMACHANH, Project Officer ADB-Lao PDR Mission Office Tel: 85621 250444 Electricity of Laos (EDL) People Mr Sisavath THIRAVONG, Managing Director & CEO of Electricity of Laos Mobile: 85620 55512749 E-mail: sisavth_th@yahoo.com Mr Thongphet DOUANGNGEUNE, Deputy Managing Director of Electricity of Laos Mobile: 85620 22223687 E-mail: dthongphet@YAHOO.COM Mr Bountham SENEPHANSIRI, Deputy Managing Director of Electricity of Laos Mobile: 85620 55570021 E-mail: bounthamsp@yahoo.com Mr Vongmany SONEKETSOULINH, Deputy Managing Director of Electricity of Laos Mobile: 85620 22223799 E-mail: vongmany-s@hotmail.com Mr Duangsy PHARAYOK, Deputy Managing Director of Electricity of Laos Mobile: 85620 22333000 E-mail: duangsy@yahoo.com Mr Komonchanh PHETASA, Manager of Business Department, Mobile Phone : 85620 55555868 E-mail: komon128@hotmail.com Mr Bounma MANIVONG, Manager of Finance Department Mobile Phone : 85620 555506739 E-mail: bm.mani09@gmail.com Mr Ken THEPVONGSA, Manager of Transmission Line and Substation Department, Mobile Phone: 85620 22805666 Mr Khamsing PHOSARATH, Manager of Technical Department, Mobile Phone: 85620 55530849 10.EDL Generation Public Company (EDL-GEN) People Mr BounOum SYVANPHENG, Managing Director & CEO Mobile Phone : 8562022223899 E-mail bounoum_syv@yahoo.com / edlgenhq@edlgen.com.la Ms Rattana PRATHOUMVAN , Deputy Managing Director, COO Mobile Phone : (856-20) 96966555 & 22205084 E-mail: lattana2005@yahoo.com / rettanadmd@edlgen.com.la Mr Dr Bounsalong SOUTHIDARA, Deputy Managing Director, CFO Phone : (856-20) 96964555 / Office: (856-21) 316140 E-mail : bounsalong@gmail.com / bounsalong@edlgen.com.la 11.Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) People Mobile 122 Mr Takayuki Niimura, Expert Policy advisor of Department of Energy Policy and Planning Office Tel : 85621 415038 Email:hashisan2001@yahoo.com.co.jp Mr Nobuo HASHIMOTO, Expert Policy advisor of Department of Energy Policy and Planning Office Tel : 85621 415038 Email: takayuki.niimura@gmail.com 12 National IT Promotion Agency (NIPA) from Korea People Dr Dok-Han Kim, Expert Finance of Electricity of Laos Tel : 85620 96590680 Email: kdh0567@yahoo.com Mr Tai Dong Lee, Expert Hydropower of Electricity of Laos Tel: 85620 95329494 Email: tdlee0502@naver.com 123 APPENDIX Energy Development Plan 5.2 Projection of Investment on Northern Region Power Development Sources from 2010-2020 No Project Names Location (Province) Capacity (MW) Province MW Energy/ year GWh p.a Phant Factor Project Period Completion Year Project Types Project Value Mill US$ EDL Loan Mill US$ EDL contribution Mill % US$ Nam Nhon Bokeo 2.4 11.5 55% 2006-10 2010 BOT 4.50 Nam Tha Luangnamtha 1.3 70% 2010-11 2011 BOT 1.50 Nam Ngum Vientiane 120 500 48% 2001-11 2011 BOT 200.00 3.0% Nam Long Luangnamtha 38 87% 2009-12 2012 BOT 12.90 0.78 6.0% Nam Sim Huaphanh 30 43% 2011-13 2013 BOT 19.40 Nam Ham Sayaboury 15 34% 2011-13 2013 BOT 8.00 Nam Khan Luangprabang 126.9 568 51% 2010-14 2014 BT 314.60 298.87 15.73 5.0% Nam Boun Phongsaly 15 96 73% 2011-14 2014 BT 30.00 27 10.0% Nam Ngiew Xieng Khuang 20 63 36% 2010-14 2014 BOT 38.00 10 Nam Beng Oudomxai 34 200 67% 2010-14 2014 BOT 65.00 11 Nam Tha Luangnamtha 168 721 49% 2009-14 2014 BOT 350.00 12 Viengphoukha (Lignite) Luangnamtha 200 1401.6 80% 2011-14 2014 BOT 420.00 20 87.6 50% 2010-14 2014 BOT 44.00 80 390 56% 2010-15 2015 BT 165.00 148.5 16.5 10.0% 43.56 111.15 5.1% Xieng Khuang Xieng Khuang 13 Nam Pot 14 Nam Chein 15 Nam Phak Oudomxai 30 165 63% 2009-15 2015 BT 43.60 16 Hongsa (Lignite) Sayaboury 100 700.8 80% 2008-15 2015 BOT 3,728.00 Xieng Khuang 180 1170 74% 2010-15 2015 BOT 345.40 Luangnamtha 130 750 66% 2010-15 2015 BOT 208.00 Xieng Khuang 220 1100 57% 2010-15 2015 BOT 696.00 17 Nam Ngiep 18 Nam Phak 19 Nam Ngum 20 Nam Ou Luangprabang 120 545.8 52% 2008-16 2016 BOT 226.00 21 Nam Ou Phongsaly 90 417.9 53% 2008-16 2016 BOT 290.00 22 Nam Khan Luangprabang 47 222 54% 2011-16 2016 BT 117.00 Huaphanh 60 214 41% 2009-16 2016 BOT 117.00 Sayaboury 60 420 80% 2008-19 2017 BOT 2,497.50 Luangprabang 150 660 50% 2008-17 2017 BOT 2,794.00 Luangprabang 150 754 57% 2010-20 2019 BOT 2,994.00 23 24 25 Nam Xam (Off take) Mekong (Sayaboury, (Off take) Mekong Luangprabang, (Off take) 26 Mekong Pakbeng 27 Nam Ou Phongsaly 240 1156.3 55% 2011-16 2016 BOT 291.00 28 Nam Ou Luangprabang 160 798.9 57% 2010-18 2018 BOT 256.00 29 Nam Ou Luangprabang 150 709.6 54% 2010-18 2018 BOT 244.00 30 Nam Ou Phongsaly 116 569 56% 2010-18 2018 BOT 251.00 31 Nam Ou Phongsaly 190 915.4 55% 2010-18 2018 BOT 373.00 Total (2010-2015) 1466 8016 62% 100% 17,144.40 629.1 48 EDL 252 1219 55% 17.20% 670.20 629.1 48 124 IPP(d) 1114 6096 62% 76.00% 2,638.70 IPP(e) 100 701 80% 6.80% 12,420.50 Total (2016-2020) 1533 7383 55% 100% 18,858.80 692 52.8 EDL 47 222 54% 3.10% 737.20 692 52.8 IPP(d) 976 4695 55% 63.70% 2,902.60 IPP(e) 510 2466 55% 33.30% 13,662.60 Total (2010-2020) 2999 15398 59% 100% 36,003.20 1321.1 100.8 EDL 299 1441 55% 10.00% 1,407.30 1321.1 100.8 IPP(d) 2090 10791 59% 69.70% 5,541.30 IPP(e) 610 3167 59% 20.30% 26,083.10 125 5.3 Projection of Investment on Central Region Power Development Sources 2010-2020 No Project Names Location (Province) Capacity (MW) Province MW Energy/ year GWh p.a Phant Factor Project Period Completion Year Project Types Project Value Mill US$ EDL Loan Mill US$ Nam Lik 1/2 Vientiane 100 435 50% 2008-10 2010 BOT 150 Nam Ngum Nam Song (Extension) Vientiane 615 2218 41% 2006-10 2010 BOT 790 60 Vientiane 28 53% 2008-11 2011 BT 13.3 11 EDL contribution Mill % US$ O IP IP 2.3 17% ED Bolikhamxai 1.5 3.3 25% 2008-11 2011 BOT 3.5 Nam Phao Theunhinboun (Extension) Bolikhamxai 220 946 49% 2008-12 2012 BOT 498 Nam Gnuang Bolikhamxai 60 316 60% 2009-12 2012 BOT 120 Vientiane 10 43.8 50% 2010-13 2013 BT 31.37 31.37 Nam Sana Nam Ngum (Extension) Vientiane 40 88 25% 2010-14 2014 BT 70 63 Nam Mang Bolikhamxai 50 235 54% 2010-14 2014 BOT 196.6 IP 10 Nam Lik Vientiane 60 248.7 47% 2010-14 2014 BOT 130 IP 11 Nam Kan Vientiane 19.7 45% 2010-14 2014 BOT 5.5 IP 12 Kengseuaten Bolikhamxai 45 200 51% 2009-15 2015 BT 90 ED 13 Nam Bak Vientiane 160 740 53% 2010-15 2015 BOT 260 14 Vientiane 60 280 53% 2010-15 2015 BOT 110.5 IP 15 Nam Phai Nam Theun (Off take) Bolikhamxai 50 250 57% 2008-17 2017 BOT 695 IP 16 Nam Mouan 105 472.1 51% 2010-17 2017 BOT 271.4 IP 17 Nam San (Down) 30 120 46% 2010-18 2018 BOT 76 IP 18 60 300 57% 2010-18 2018 BOT 122 IP 19 Nam Ngum (Down) Nam Ngeip (Off take) Bolikhamxai Xieng Khuang Vientiane Capital Bolikhamxai 18 102 65% 2010-18 2018 BOT 344 IP 20 Nam Phouan Vientiane 60 280 53% 2010-19 2019 BOT 115 IP 1433 5801 46% 100% 4092.2 181 95.7 EDL 101 360 41% 7.1% 204.7 181 95.7 IPP(d) 497 2278 52% 34.7% 1560.5 IPP(e) 835 3164 43% 58.3% 2327 Total (2016-2020) 323 1524 54% 100% 4501.4 199.1 105.3 225.1 199.1 105.3 Total (2010-2015) EDL IP 86.4 ED 15.6 1172 52% 78.9% 1716.6 IPP(e) 68 352 59% 21.1% 2559.7 1756 7326 48% 100% 8593.6 380 201 380 201 101 360 41% 5.8% 429.8 IPP(d) 752 3450 52% 42.8% 3277.1 IPP(e) 903 3516 44% 51.4% 4886.7 10% ED IP 255 EDL IP IP IPP(d) Total (2010-2020) 17% 126 APPENDIX Projection of Investment on Power Development Sources from 2010-2020 (Whole Country) Project Names Capacity (MW) MW 3,945 548 2,373 1,024 2,761 103 2,010 648 6,706 650 4,383 1,672 Total (2010-2015) EDL IPP(d) IPP(e) Total (2016-2020) EDL IPP(d) IPP(e) Total (2010-2020) EDL IPP(d) IPP(e) d = domestic e = export IPP = Independent Power Producer EDL = Electricity Due Laos Energy/ year Project Value EDL Loan GWh p.a 20,321 2,693 13,427 4,201 13,636 372 10,168 3,096 33,957 3,065 23,595 7,297 Mill US$ 25,939.70 1,450.90 6,955.30 16,118.50 28,533.70 1,596.00 7,650.80 17,730.40 54,473.40 3,047.00 14,606.10 33,848.90 Mill US$ 1,204.2 1,204.2 EDL contribution Mill US$ 175.7 175.7 1,324.6 1,324.6 193.2 193.2 2,528.8 2,528.8 368.9 368.9 The table above shows the projection of power development plan between 2010 and 2020 During the period, the target of development plan is to install production facility with the capacity of 6,706 MW, with energy production of 33,957 GWh per annum The total investment cost will be 54,573.4 million US$ Among these, EDL will invest billion US$, while IPP for domestic will invest 14.6 billion US$ and IPP for export will invest 33.8 billion US$ The EDL plans to borrow 2,528.8 million US$, perhaps through ODA as low interest loan if possible, or commercial loan EDL will invest its own fund of 368.9 million US$ during the period of 2010 and 2020 127 APPENDIX Detail estimate of energy sector projection Existing Production Facility Name of Project Location No Province Nam Dong (H) (MW) Installed Capacity Progress of project Luangprabang Selabam (H) Champasak Nam Ngum (H) Vientiane Investors (Sponsors) Status Commercial Operation Date In Operation Planned Market Ownerships 1970 Remarks Equity share EdL • EdL (Laos) 100% Laos In Operation 1970 EdL • EdL (Laos) 100% Laos 155 In Operation 1971 EdL • EdL (Laos) 100% Laos/ Thailand Xeset (H) Saravane 45 In Operation 1990 EdL • EdL (Laos) 100% Laos/ Thailand Nam Ko (H) Oudomxay 1.5 In Operation 1996 EdL • EdL (Laos) 100% Laos • EdL (Laos) 60% Theun-Hinboun (H) Bolikhamxay 210 In Operation 1998 IPP(e) • Nordic 20% Laos/ Thailand • GMS 20% Houay Ho (H) Nam Leuk (H) Vientiane 60 In Operation 2000 IPP(e) • Suez Energy (Belgium) 60% • HHTC (Thailand) 20% EdL • EdL (Laos) 100% Laos/ Thailand Nam Ngay (H) Phongsaly 1.2 In Operation 2003 EdL • EdL(Laos) 100% Laos 10 Nam Mang3 (H) Vientiane 40 In Operation 2004 EdL • EdL (Laos) 100% Laos/ Thailand 11 Xeset (H) Saravane 76 In Operation 2009 EdL • EdL (Laos) 100% Laos 12 Nam Theun Khammuane 1088 In Operation 2009 IPP(e) LHSE (Laos) 25%, EDF (France) 35%, EGCO (Thailand) 25%, ITD (Thailand) 15% Laos/ Thailand 13 Nam Lik 1/2 100 2010 IPP(e) Micro-hydro 1.405 In Operation Prov • Prov (Laos) 100% Laos Solar 0.214 In Operation Prov • Prov (Laos) 100% Laos Diesel 0.74 In Operation Prov • Prov (Laos) 100% Laos Champasak/ Attapeu 152.1 Total 1937.2 EdL 384.7 IPP(e) 1550.1 Prov 2.36 (H): EdL: IPP: IPP(e): IPP(d): Hydropower plant Electricité du Laos (EdL) Independent Power Producer Exporting IPP Domestic IPP In Operation FS: HOA: MOU: PDA: PPA: TBD: SIOD: 1999 • EdL (Laos) 20% Laos/ Thailand Feasibility Study Head of Agreement Memorandum of Understanding Project Development Agreement Power Purchase Agreement To Be Determined Start Initial Operation Date 150MW (Export) and 2.1MW (Domestic) Off take 75 MW (Domestic) 128 Demand Forecast Northern Area Descriptions Phongsaly Sub-Total Copper Mining at Yot Ou District Copper Mining at Yot Ou District Total Load during Construction of Hydro Power Plants Bokeo Sub-Total Sub-Total Copper Mining at Houay Mo, Long District Economic Spacial Zone (Boten) Total Load during Construction of Hydro Power Plants Railway station Train running Oudomxai Sub-Total Cement Factory at Thong Na Village, Namo District Copper Mining at Kiew Chep Village-, Namo District Iron melting factory, at Phu Phan Village, La District Lead- Zinc Factory at Nam Pheng Village, Namo District Total Load during Construction of Hydro Power Plants Total Load during Construction of Railway Railway station Xiengkhuang Sub-Total Iron melting factory, at Nator Village, Khoun District Iron melting factory, at Yot Pieng Village, Pek District Total Load during Construction of Hydro Power Plants Huaphanh Sub-Total Total Load during Construction of Hydro Power Plants Luangprabang Sub-Total Cement factory at Many Village, Nambak District Gold Mining at Phapon Village, Pak Ou District Total Load during Construction of Hydro Power Plants Total Load during Construction of Railway Railway station Sayaboury Sub-Total Copper Mining at Pang Kham Village, Paklay District Total Load during Construction of Hydro Power Plants Total (Northern) 2010 2011 2013 - - - - - - (MW) (GWh) (MW) (GWh) (MW) (GWh) (MW) (GWh) 2012 - - (MW) (GWh) - (MW) (GWh) (MW) (GWh) (MW) (GWh) (MW) (GWh) (MW) (GWh) (MW) (GWh) - (MW) (GWh) (MW) (GWh) (MW) (GWh) (MW) (GWh) (MW) (GWh) (MW) (GWh) (MW) (GWh) (MW) (GWh) - - - (MW) (GWh) (MW) (GWh) (MW) (GWh) (MW) (GWh) (MW) (GWh) (MW) (GWh) 2.3 11.8 0.2 1.2 12 0.2 1.2 0.2 1.2 10.9 61.8 15.8 87.6 65.9 350.6 10.0 56.9 10.2 57.8 8.0 42.0 47.7 250.7 0.2 0.9 0.9 4.9 52.0 273.3 62.0 330.2 62.1 330.7 67.3 357.9 10.0 56.9 10.1 57.4 10.2 57.8 52.0 273.3 52.0 273.3 52.0 273.3 5.1 26.8 52.0 273.3 18.0 94.6 18.0 94.6 - 6.0 31.5 18.0 94.6 18.0 94.6 - 6.0 31.5 - - 1.2 6.3 3 1.2 6.3 1.2 6.3 47.7 253.6 47.7 253.9 90.7 479.7 7.0 39.4 7.1 39.7 1.0 5.7 39.6 208.1 7.1 40.1 1.0 5.7 39.6 208.1 7.2 40.4 1.0 5.7 42.9 225.4 39.6 208.1 0.5 2.8 0.5 2.8 - - - - - - 116.8 616.4 138.6 740.2 0.5 2.8 127.5 682.4 1.2 6.3 46.6 247.6 39.6 208.1 (MW) (GWh) (MW) (GWh) (MW) (GWh) - 10.1 57.4 5.0 26.3 0.8 3.9 - (MW) (GWh) (MW) (GWh) 2015 2.3 11.8 (MW) (GWh) (MW) (GWh) (MW) (GWh) (MW) (GWh) 0.2 0.9 2014 - 0.2 1.2 (MW) (GWh) Dokngiewkham Luangnamtha Units (MW) (GWh) 3 0.5 2.8 234.0 1,241.8 39 2,12 129 Central Area Vientiane Province Descriptions Units Sub-Total (MW) (GWh) 32.0 210.2 59.3 355.0 146.6 926.0 179.4 1,128.9 220.8 1,358.0 387.9 2,164.5 (MW) (GWh) (MW) (GWh) (MW) (GWh) (MW) (GWh) (MW) (GWh) (MW) (GWh) (MW) (GWh) (MW) (GWh) (MW) (GWh) (MW) (GWh) 32.0 210.2 33.0 216.8 43.0 282.5 20.0 131.4 43.3 284.8 20.2 132.5 12.0 84.0 27.3 203.1 30.0 170.8 27.3 203.1 50.0 284.7 43.7 287.0 20.3 133.5 12.1 84.7 25.0 142.3 27.3 203.1 50.0 284.7 44.0 289.3 20.5 134.6 12.2 85.3 25.2 143.4 27.3 203.1 200.0 1,000.0 0.9 4.7 25.4 133.5 0.9 4.7 25.4 133.5 1.2 6.5 25.4 133.5 17.0 89.2 25.4 133.5 48.8 256.2 10.0 52.6 (MW) (GWh) - 10.9 71.2 47.0 203.6 96.1 357.4 96.2 358.2 95.4 354.2 8.0 56.0 5.0 35.0 31.0 96.9 8.1 56.4 5.0 35.3 80.0 250.0 8.1 56.9 5.1 35.6 80.0 250.0 8.2 57.4 5.1 35.8 80.0 250.0 8.3 57.8 2.9 15.2 2.9 15.2 2.9 15.2 2.9 15.2 2.0 10.5 0.2 1.3 9.2 48.6 9.0 47.3 7.5 39.4 14.3 74.9 0.2 1.3 9.2 48.6 9.0 47.3 7.5 39.4 14.3 74.9 70.4 427.5 202.8 1,178.1 284.5 1,533.7 324.4 1,755.6 497.6 2,593.6 Phubia Gold/copper Mining Phubia Gold/copper Mining( Hoayxai ) Iron melting factory, at Vangvieng District Iron melting factory, at Namchan Village, Saysomboon District Cement Factory at Vangvieng (Extension) Iron melting factory, at Vangvieng District (sinhouang) Gold/Copper Mining at Maipakphoun Village, Sanakham District Total Load during Construction of Hydro Power Plants Total Load during Construction of Railway 10 Railway station Vientiane Capital Sub-Total Gold Mining at Khok Pheung Village, Sangthong District Iron melting factory, at Ban Hai Village (Tha Ngon), Xaythany District Kea Potash Factory at Thongmang Village, Saythany District Kea Potash Factory at Nathom Village, Saythany District Total Load during Construction of Hydro Power Plants Total Load during Construction of Railway Railway station Bolikhamxai Sub-Total Total Load during Construction of Hydro Power Plants (MW) (GWh) Sub-Total Potassium at Yang Koung Village (Ngom Ma Lat) Thakhek District Jiaxi Mining at Thakhek District Metal Melting Factory at Nong Cheun-Borneng Village, Hinboon District Cement Factory at Nakham Village, Thakhek District (Existing) Cement Factory at Nakham Village, Thakhek District (Extension) Economic Spacial Zone Total Load during Construction of Hydro Power Plants Savannakhet Sub-Total Xepon Gold/Copper Mining at Vilabury District Economic Spacial Zone (Nongdeun) Saravan Champasak Sekong - (MW) (GWh) Descriptions Southern Area 2011 (MW) (GWh) (MW) (GWh) (MW) (GWh) (MW) (GWh) (MW) (GWh) (MW) (GWh) (MW) (GWh) 32.0 210.2 (MW) (GWh) Total (Central) Khammouane 2010 Total Load during Construction of Hydro Power Plants Sub-Total Sub-Total Cement Factory at Ta Leo Village, Saravane District Aluminium at Paksong District(SLACO)for the Total Load mine during Construction of Hydro Power entire Aluminium at Paksong District(SINOMA) for the Plants entire mine Sub-Total Aluminium at Paksong District(SINOMA) for Alumina refinery Aluminium at Daklan Village, Dakjung District Economic Spacial Zone (Bolaven plateau) Total Load during Construction of Hydro Power Total Load during Construction of Hydro Power Plants Plants Units (MW) (GWh) 2010 17.0 52.0 (MW) (GWh) (MW) (GWh) (MW) (GWh) (MW) (GWh) (MW) (GWh) (MW) (GWh) (MW) (GWh) 17.0 52.0 (MW) (GWh) (MW) (GWh) (MW) (GWh) (MW) (GWh) (MW) (MW) (GWh) (GWh) (MW) (MW) (GWh) (GWh) (MW) (GWh) (MW) (GWh) (MW) (MW) (GWh) (GWh) (MW) (MW) (GWh) (GWh) (MW) (MW) (GWh) (GWh) 2012 2011 17.0 52.0 17.0 52.0 2013 2012 17.0 52.0 17.0 52.0 2014 2013 17.0 52.0 17.0 52.0 2015 2014 37.0 127.0 2015 70 304 20.0 75.0 20 75 22 124 17.0 52.0 17 52 21 31 - - - - 43.0 317.6 44.0 323.8 54.0 380.7 73.5 492.1 93.5 605.9 93 605 43.0 317.6 43.5 321.2 12.6 71.7 12.6 12.6 35.5 71.7 175.7 12.6 43.5 321.2 30.0 170.8 - 12.6 47.7 71.7 312.4 12.6 43.5 321.2 50.0 284.7 - 43 321 50 284 - 43.5 321.2 10.0 56.9 0.5 2.5 13.4 63.5 75.6 428.0 12.6 28 142 154 991 12 71.7 - 7.5 71.7 8.0 30.7 20.0 145.0 15.0 71.7 111.78.0 30.7 9.6 20.0 50.5 145.0 30.0 71.7 223.4 0.8 8.0 3.9 30.7 22.8 20.0 119.8 145.0 9.6 4.7 50.5 25.0 22.8 5.5 119.8 28.9 100 71 744 15 828 30 58 20 305 145 21 58 305 49 - 0.5 2.5 - - 130 Attapeu Sub-Total Gold/Copper Mining at Vangtun Village, Xanxai District Aluminium at Paksong District(SLACO) for Alumina refinery Total Load during Construction of Hydro Power Plants (MW) (GWh) - (MW) (GWh) (MW) (GWh) (MW) (GWh) 3.8 19.7 3.8 19.7 3.8 19.7 3.8 19.7 - - - - Total (Southern) (MW) (GWh) 60.0 369.6 77.3 467.2 122.8 699.8 160.4 978.6 230.1 1,356.4 392 2,362 Whole Country (MW) (GWh) 92.0 579.8 264.6 1,511.2 464.2 2,618.2 572.5 3,194.7 788.5 4,353.8 1,280 7,083 131 LIST OF AUTHOR’S PUBLICATIONS Khammany INTHIRATH, Power sector status of Lao PDR and Lao–Vietnam cooperation on power project development, Lao-Vietnam international Economic Seminar In Vietiane Capital 26/10/2012, Book III, Pages 104 Khammany INTHIRATH, Promotion of Foreign Direct Investments for the development of Energy sector in Lao PDR, Lao Magazine ALOUNMAI, Date October 2011, Page 53 Khammany Inthirath, Investments in Hydropower Development in Lao PDR, Scientific Seminar Lao PDR – SR of Vietnam, Vientiane Capital, Lao PDR, 2011, Book II, Pages 53
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