Five minute MBA corporate finance

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An Overview of Corporate Finance and the Financial Environment 11 In a beauty contest for companies, the winner is General Electric Or at least General Electric is the most admired company in America, according to Fortune magazine’s annual survey The other top ten finalists are Cisco Systems, WalMart Stores, Southwest Airlines, Microsoft, Home Depot, Berkshire Hathaway, Charles Schwab, Intel, and Dell Computer What these companies have that separates them from the rest of the pack? According to more than 4,000 executives, directors, and security analysts, these companies have the highest average scores across eight attributes: (1) innovativeness, (2) quality of management, (3) employee talent, (4) quality of products and services, (5) long-term investment value, (6) financial soundness, (7) social responsibility, and (8) use of corporate assets These companies also have an incredible focus on using technology to reduce costs, to reduce inventory, and to speed up product delivery For example, workers at Dell previously touched a computer 130 times during the assembly process but now touch it only 60 times Using point-of-sale data, Wal-Mart is able to identify and meet surSee http://www.fortune com for updates on the U.S prising customer needs, such as bagels in Mexico, smoke detectors in Brazil, and house ranking Fortune also ranks paint during the winter in Puerto Rico Many of these companies are changing the way the Global Most Admired business works by using the Net, and that change is occurring at a break-neck pace For example, in 1999 GE’s plastics distribution business did less than $2,000 per day of business online A year later the division did more than $2,000,000 per day in e-commerce Many companies have a difficult time attracting employees Not so for the most admired companies, which average 26 applicants for each job opening This is because, in addition to their acumen with technology and customers, they are also on the leading edge when it comes to training employees and providing a workplace in which people can thrive In a nutshell, these companies reduce costs by having innovative production processes, they create value for customers by providing high-quality products and services, and they create value for employees through training and fostering an environment that allows employees to utilize all of their skills and talents Do investors benefit from this focus on processes, customers, and employees? During the most recent five-year period, these ten companies posted an average annual stock return of 41.4 percent, more than double the S&P 500’s average annual return of 18.3 percent These exceptional returns are due to the ability of these companies to generate cash flow But, as you will see throughout this book, a company can generate cash flow only if it also creates value for its customers, employees, and suppliers An Overview of Corporate Finance and the Financial Environment CHAPTER An Overview of Corporate Finance and the Financial Environment This chapter should give you an idea of what corporate finance is all about, including an overview of the financial markets in which corporations operate But before getting into the details of finance, it’s important to look at the big picture You’re probably back in school because you want an interesting, challenging, and rewarding career To see where finance fits in, let’s start with a five-minute MBA The Five-Minute MBA Okay, we realize you can’t get an MBA in five minutes But just as an artist quickly sketches the outline of a picture before filling in the details, we can sketch the key elements of an MBA education In a nutshell, the objective of an MBA is to provide managers with the knowledge and skills they need to run successful companies, so we start our sketch with some common characteristics of successful companies In particular, all successful companies are able to accomplish two goals Visit http://ehrhardt swcollege.com to see the web site accompanying this text This ever-evolving site, for students and instructors, is a tool for teaching, learning, financial research, and job searches All successful companies identify, create, and deliver products or services that are highly valued by customers, so highly valued that customers choose to purchase them from the company rather than from its competitors This happens only if the company provides more value than its competitors, either in the form of lower prices or better products All successful companies sell their products/services at prices that are high enough to cover costs and to compensate owners and creditors for their exposure to risk In other words, it’s not enough just to win market share and to show a profit The profit must be high enough to adequately compensate investors It’s easy to talk about satisfying customers and investors, but it’s not so easy to accomplish these goals If it were, then all companies would be successful and you wouldn’t need an MBA! Still, companies such as the ones on Fortune’s Most Admired list are able to satisfy customers and investors These companies all share the following three key attributes The Key Attributes Required for Success First, successful companies have skilled people at all levels inside the company, including (1) leaders who develop and articulate sound strategic visions; (2) managers who make value-adding decisions, design efficient business processes, and train and motivate work forces; and (3) a capable work force willing to implement the company’s strategies and tactics Second, successful companies have strong relationships with groups that are outside the company For example, successful companies develop win-win relationships with suppliers, who deliver high-quality materials on time and at a reasonable cost A related trend is the rapid growth in relationships with third-party outsourcers, who provide high-quality services and products at a relatively low cost This is particularly true in the areas of information technology and logistics Successful companies also develop strong relationships with their customers, leading to repeat sales, higher profit margins, and lower customer acquisition costs Third, successful companies have sufficient capital to execute their plans and support their operations For example, most growing companies must purchase land, buildings, equipment, and materials To make these purchases, companies can reinvest a portion of their earnings, but most must also raise additional funds externally, by some combination of selling stock or borrowing from banks and other creditors An Overview of Corporate Finance and the Financial Environment How Are Companies Organized? Just as a stool needs all three legs to stand, a successful company must have all three attributes: skilled people, strong external relationships, and sufficient capital The MBA, Finance, and Your Career Consult http://www careers-in-finance.com for an excellent site containing information on a variety of business career areas, listings of current jobs, and other reference materials To be successful, a company must meet its first goal—the identification, creation, and delivery of highly valued products and services This requires that it possess all three of the key attributes Therefore, it’s not surprising that most of your MBA courses are directly related to these attributes For example, courses in economics, communication, strategy, organizational behavior, and human resources should prepare you for a leadership role and enable you to effectively manage your company’s work force Other courses, such as marketing, operations management, and information technology are designed to develop your knowledge of specific disciplines, enabling you to develop the efficient business processes and strong external relationships your company needs Portions of this corporate finance course will address raising the capital your company needs to implement its plans In particular, the finance course will enable you to forecast your company’s funding requirements and then describe strategies for acquiring the necessary capital In short, your MBA courses will give you the skills to help a company achieve its first goal—producing goods and services that customers want Recall, though, that it’s not enough just to have highly valued products and satisfied customers Successful companies must also meet their second goal, which is to generate enough cash to compensate the investors who provided the necessary capital To help your company accomplish this second goal, you must be able to evaluate any proposal, whether it relates to marketing, production, strategy, or any other area, and implement only the projects that add value for your investors For this, you must have expertise in finance, no matter what your major is Thus, corporate finance is a critical part of an MBA education and will help you throughout your career What are the goals of successful companies? What are the three key attributes common to all successful companies? How does expertise in corporate finance help a company become successful? How Are Companies Organized? There are three main forms of business organization: (1) sole proprietorships, (2) partnerships, and (3) corporations In terms of numbers, about 80 percent of businesses are operated as sole proprietorships, while most of the remainder are divided equally between partnerships and corporations Based on dollar value of sales, however, about 80 percent of all business is conducted by corporations, about 13 percent by sole proprietorships, and about percent by partnerships and hybrids Because most business is conducted by corporations, we will concentrate on them in this book However, it is important to understand the differences among the various forms Sole Proprietorship A sole proprietorship is an unincorporated business owned by one individual Going into business as a sole proprietor is easy—one merely begins business operations However, even the smallest business normally must be licensed by a governmental unit An Overview of Corporate Finance and the Financial Environment CHAPTER An Overview of Corporate Finance and the Financial Environment The proprietorship has three important advantages: (1) It is easily and inexpensively formed, (2) it is subject to few government regulations, and (3) the business avoids corporate income taxes The proprietorship also has three important limitations: (1) It is difficult for a proprietorship to obtain large sums of capital; (2) the proprietor has unlimited personal liability for the business’s debts, which can result in losses that exceed the money he or she invested in the company; and (3) the life of a business organized as a proprietorship is limited to the life of the individual who created it For these three reasons, sole proprietorships are used primarily for small-business operations However, businesses are frequently started as proprietorships and then converted to corporations when their growth causes the disadvantages of being a proprietorship to outweigh the advantages Partnership A partnership exists whenever two or more persons associate to conduct a noncorporate business Partnerships may operate under different degrees of formality, ranging from informal, oral understandings to formal agreements filed with the secretary of the state in which the partnership was formed The major advantage of a partnership is its low cost and ease of formation The disadvantages are similar to those associated with proprietorships: (1) unlimited liability, (2) limited life of the organization, (3) difficulty transferring ownership, and (4) difficulty raising large amounts of capital The tax treatment of a partnership is similar to that for proprietorships, but this is often an advantage, as we demonstrate in Chapter Regarding liability, the partners can potentially lose all of their personal assets, even assets not invested in the business, because under partnership law, each partner is liable for the business’s debts Therefore, if any partner is unable to meet his or her pro rata liability in the event the partnership goes bankrupt, the remaining partners must make good on the unsatisfied claims, drawing on their personal assets to the extent necessary Today (2002), the partners of the national accounting firm Arthur Andersen, a huge partnership facing lawsuits filed by investors who relied on faulty Enron audit statements, are learning all about the perils of doing business as a partnership Thus, a Texas partner who audits a business that goes under can bring ruin to a millionaire New York partner who never went near the client company The first three disadvantages—unlimited liability, impermanence of the organization, and difficulty of transferring ownership—lead to the fourth, the difficulty partnerships have in attracting substantial amounts of capital This is generally not a problem for a slow-growing business, but if a business’s products or services really catch on, and if it needs to raise large sums of money to capitalize on its opportunities, the difficulty in attracting capital becomes a real drawback Thus, growth companies such as HewlettPackard and Microsoft generally begin life as a proprietorship or partnership, but at some point their founders find it necessary to convert to a corporation Corporation A corporation is a legal entity created by a state, and it is separate and distinct from its owners and managers This separateness gives the corporation three major advantages: (1) Unlimited life A corporation can continue after its original owners and managers are deceased (2) Easy transferability of ownership interest Ownership interests can be divided into shares of stock, which, in turn, can be transferred far more easily than can proprietorship or partnership interests (3) Limited liability Losses are limited to the actual funds invested To illustrate limited liability, suppose you invested $10,000 in a partnership that then went bankrupt owing $1 million Because the owners are An Overview of Corporate Finance and the Financial Environment How Are Companies Organized? liable for the debts of a partnership, you could be assessed for a share of the company’s debt, and you could be held liable for the entire $1 million if your partners could not pay their shares Thus, an investor in a partnership is exposed to unlimited liability On the other hand, if you invested $10,000 in the stock of a corporation that then went bankrupt, your potential loss on the investment would be limited to your $10,000 investment.1 These three factors—unlimited life, easy transferability of ownership interest, and limited liability—make it much easier for corporations than for proprietorships or partnerships to raise money in the capital markets The corporate form offers significant advantages over proprietorships and partnerships, but it also has two disadvantages: (1) Corporate earnings may be subject to double taxation—the earnings of the corporation are taxed at the corporate level, and then any earnings paid out as dividends are taxed again as income to the stockholders (2) Setting up a corporation, and filing the many required state and federal reports, is more complex and time-consuming than for a proprietorship or a partnership A proprietorship or a partnership can commence operations without much paperwork, but setting up a corporation requires that the incorporators prepare a charter and a set of bylaws Although personal computer software that creates charters and bylaws is now available, a lawyer is required if the fledgling corporation has any nonstandard features The charter includes the following information: (1) name of the proposed corporation, (2) types of activities it will pursue, (3) amount of capital stock, (4) number of directors, and (5) names and addresses of directors The charter is filed with the secretary of the state in which the firm will be incorporated, and when it is approved, the corporation is officially in existence.2 Then, after the corporation is in operation, quarterly and annual employment, financial, and tax reports must be filed with state and federal authorities The bylaws are a set of rules drawn up by the founders of the corporation Included are such points as (1) how directors are to be elected (all elected each year, or perhaps one-third each year for three-year terms); (2) whether the existing stockholders will have the first right to buy any new shares the firm issues; and (3) procedures for changing the bylaws themselves, should conditions require it The value of any business other than a very small one will probably be maximized if it is organized as a corporation for these three reasons: Limited liability reduces the risks borne by investors, and, other things held constant, the lower the firm’s risk, the higher its value A firm’s value depends on its growth opportunities, which, in turn, depend on the firm’s ability to attract capital Because corporations can attract capital more easily than unincorporated businesses, they are better able to take advantage of growth opportunities The value of an asset also depends on its liquidity, which means the ease of selling the asset and converting it to cash at a “fair market value.” Because the stock of a corporation is much more liquid than a similar investment in a proprietorship or partnership, this too enhances the value of a corporation As we will see later in the chapter, most firms are managed with value maximization in mind, and this, in turn, has caused most large businesses to be organized as corporations However, a very serious problem faces the corporation’s stockholders, who are its owners What is to prevent managers from acting in their own best interests, rather In the case of small corporations, the limited liability feature is often a fiction, because bankers and other lenders frequently require personal guarantees from the stockholders of small, weak businesses Note that more than 60 percent of major U.S corporations are chartered in Delaware, which has, over the years, provided a favorable legal environment for corporations It is not necessary for a firm to be headquartered, or even to conduct operations, in its state of incorporation An Overview of Corporate Finance and the Financial Environment CHAPTER An Overview of Corporate Finance and the Financial Environment than in the best interests of the owners? This is called an agency problem, because managers are hired as agents to act on behalf of the owners We will have much more to say about agency problems in Chapters 12 and 13 Hybrid Forms of Organization Although the three basic types of organization—proprietorships, partnerships, and corporations—dominate the business scene, several hybrid forms are gaining popularity For example, there are some specialized types of partnerships that have somewhat different characteristics than the “plain vanilla” kind First, it is possible to limit the liabilities of some of the partners by establishing a limited partnership, wherein certain partners are designated general partners and others limited partners In a limited partnership, the limited partners are liable only for the amount of their investment in the partnership, while the general partners have unlimited liability However, the limited partners typically have no control, which rests solely with the general partners, and their returns are likewise limited Limited partnerships are common in real estate, oil, and equipment leasing ventures However, they are not widely used in general business situations because no one partner is usually willing to be the general partner and thus accept the majority of the business’s risk, while the would-be limited partners are unwilling to give up all control The limited liability partnership (LLP), sometimes called a limited liability company (LLC), is a relatively new type of partnership that is now permitted in many states In both regular and limited partnerships, at least one partner is liable for the debts of the partnership However, in an LLP, all partners enjoy limited liability with regard to the business’s liabilities, so in that regard they are similar to shareholders in a corporation In effect, the LLP combines the limited liability advantage of a corporation with the tax advantages of a partnership Of course, those who business with an LLP as opposed to a regular partnership are aware of the situation, which increases the risk faced by lenders, customers, and others who deal with the LLP There are also several different types of corporations One that is common among professionals such as doctors, lawyers, and accountants is the professional corporation (PC), or in some states, the professional association (PA) All 50 states have statutes that prescribe the requirements for such corporations, which provide most of the benefits of incorporation but not relieve the participants of professional (malpractice) liability Indeed, the primary motivation behind the professional corporation was to provide a way for groups of professionals to incorporate and thus avoid certain types of unlimited liability, yet still be held responsible for professional liability Finally, note that if certain requirements are met, particularly with regard to size and number of stockholders, one (or more) individuals can establish a corporation but elect to be taxed as if the business were a proprietorship or partnership Such firms, which differ not in organizational form but only in how their owners are taxed, are called S corporations Although S corporations are similar in many ways to limited liability partnerships, LLPs frequently offer more flexibility and benefits to their owners, and this is causing many S corporation businesses to convert to the LLP organizational form What are the key differences between sole proprietorships, partnerships, and corporations? Explain why the value of any business other than a very small one will probably be maximized if it is organized as a corporation Identify the hybrid forms of organization discussed in the text, and explain the differences among them An Overview of Corporate Finance and the Financial Environment The Primary Objective of the Corporation The Primary Objective of the Corporation Shareholders are the owners of a corporation, and they purchase stocks because they want to earn a good return on their investment without undue risk exposure In most cases, shareholders elect directors, who then hire managers to run the corporation on a day-to-day basis Because managers are supposed to be working on behalf of shareholders, it follows that they should pursue policies that enhance shareholder value Consequently, throughout this book we operate on the assumption that management’s primary objective is stockholder wealth maximization, which translates into maximizing the price of the firm’s common stock Firms do, of course, have other objectives— in particular, the managers who make the actual decisions are interested in their own personal satisfaction, in their employees’ welfare, and in the good of the community and of society at large Still, for the reasons set forth in the following sections, stock price maximization is the most important objective for most corporations Stock Price Maximization and Social Welfare If a firm attempts to maximize its stock price, is this good or bad for society? In general, it is good Aside from such illegal actions as attempting to form monopolies, violating safety codes, and failing to meet pollution requirements, the same actions that maximize stock prices also benefit society Here are some of the reasons: To a large extent, the owners of stock are society Seventy-five years ago this was not true, because most stock ownership was concentrated in the hands of a relatively small segment of society, comprised of the wealthiest individuals Since then, there has been explosive growth in pension funds, life insurance companies, The Security Industry Association’s web site, http:// and mutual funds These institutions now own more than 57 percent of all stock In www.sia.com, is a great addition, more than 48 percent of all U.S households now own stock directly, as source of information To compared with only 32.5 percent in 1989 Moreover, most people with a retirefind data on stock ownerment plan have an indirect ownership interest in stocks Thus, most members of ship, go to their web page, society now have an important stake in the stock market, either directly or indiclick on Reference Materials, click on Securities Industry rectly Therefore, when a manager takes actions to maximize the stock price, this Fact Book, and look at the improves the quality of life for millions of ordinary citizens section on Investor Partici2 Consumers benefit Stock price maximization requires efficient, low-cost busipation nesses that produce high-quality goods and services at the lowest possible cost This means that companies must develop products and services that consumers want and need, which leads to new technology and new products Also, companies that maximize their stock price must generate growth in sales by creating value for customers in the form of efficient and courteous service, adequate stocks of merchandise, and well-located business establishments People sometimes argue that firms, in their efforts to raise profits and stock prices, increase product prices and gouge the public In a reasonably competitive economy, which we have, prices are constrained by competition and consumer resistance If a firm raises its prices beyond reasonable levels, it will simply lose its market share Even giant firms such as General Motors lose business to Japanese and German firms, as well as to Ford and Chrysler, if they set prices above the level necessary to cover production costs plus a “normal” profit Of course, firms want to earn more, and they constantly try to cut costs, develop new products, and so on, and thereby earn above-normal profits Note, though, that if they are indeed successful and earn above-normal profits, those very profits will attract competition, which will eventually drive prices down, so again, the main long-term beneficiary is the consumer An Overview of Corporate Finance and the Financial Environment 10 CHAPTER An Overview of Corporate Finance and the Financial Environment Employees benefit There are cases in which a stock increases when a company announces a plan to lay off employees, but viewed over time this is the exception rather than the rule In general, companies that successfully increase stock prices also grow and add more employees, thus benefiting society Note too that many governments across the world, including U.S federal and state governments, are privatizing some of their state-owned activities by selling these operations to investors Perhaps not surprisingly, the sales and cash flows of recently privatized companies generally improve Moreover, studies show that these newly privatized companies tend to grow and thus require more employees when they are managed with the goal of stock price maximization Each year Fortune magazine conducts a survey of managers, analysts, and other knowledgeable people to determine the most admired companies One of Fortune’s key criteria is a company’s ability to attract, develop, and retain talented people The results consistently show that there are high correlations among a company’s being admired, its ability to satisfy employees, and its creation of value for shareholders Employees find that it is both fun and financially rewarding to work for successful companies So, successful companies get the cream of the employee crop, and skilled, motivated employees are one of the keys to corporate success Managerial Actions to Maximize Shareholder Wealth What types of actions can managers take to maximize a firm’s stock price? To answer this question, we first need to ask, “What determines stock prices?” In a nutshell, it is a company’s ability to generate cash flows now and in the future While we will address this issue in detail in Chapter 12, we can lay out three basic facts here: (1) Any financial asset, including a company’s stock, is valuable only to the extent that it generates cash flows; (2) the timing of cash flows matters—cash received sooner is better, because it can be reinvested in the company to produce additional income or else be returned to investors; and (3) investors generally are averse to risk, so all else equal, they will pay more for a stock whose cash flows are relatively certain than for one whose cash flows are more risky Because of these three facts, managers can enhance their firms’ stock prices by increasing the size of the expected cash flows, by speeding up their receipt, and by reducing their risk The three primary determinants of cash flows are (1) unit sales, (2) after-tax operating margins, and (3) capital requirements The first factor has two parts, the current level of sales and their expected future growth rate Managers can increase sales, hence cash flows, by truly understanding their customers and then providing the goods and services that customers want Some companies may luck into a situation that creates rapid sales growth, but the unfortunate reality is that market saturation and competition will, in the long term, cause their sales growth rate to decline to a level that is limited by population growth and inflation Therefore, managers must constantly strive to create new products, services, and brand identities that cannot be easily replicated by competitors, and thus to extend the period of high growth for as long as possible The second determinant of cash flows is the amount of after-tax profit that the company can keep after it has paid its employees and suppliers One possible way to increase operating profit is to charge higher prices However, in a competitive economy such as ours, higher prices can be charged only for products that meet the needs of customers better than competitors’ products Another way to increase operating profit is to reduce direct expenses such as labor and materials However, and paradoxically, sometimes companies can create even An Overview of Corporate Finance and the Financial Environment The Primary Objective of the Corporation 11 higher profit by spending more on labor and materials For example, choosing the lowest-cost supplier might result in using poor materials that lead to costly production problems Therefore, managers should understand supply chain management, which often means developing long-term relationships with suppliers Similarly, increased employee training adds to costs, but it often pays off through increased productivity and lower turnover Therefore, the human resources staff can have a huge impact on operating profits The third factor affecting cash flows is the amount of money a company must invest in plant and equipment In short, it takes cash to create cash For example, as a part of their normal operations, most companies must invest in inventory, machines, buildings, and so forth But each dollar tied up in operating assets is a dollar that the company must “rent” from investors and pay for by paying interest or dividends Therefore, reducing asset requirements tends to increase cash flows, which increases the stock price For example, companies that successfully implement just-in-time inventory systems generally increase their cash flows, because they have less cash tied up in inventory As these examples indicate, there are many ways to improve cash flows All of them require the active participation of many departments, including marketing, engineering, and logistics One of the financial manager’s roles is to show others how their actions will affect the company’s ability to generate cash flow Financial managers also must decide how to finance the firm: What mix of debt and equity should be used, and what specific types of debt and equity securities should be issued? Also, what percentage of current earnings should be retained and reinvested rather than paid out as dividends? Each of these investment and financing decisions is likely to affect the level, timing, and risk of the firm’s cash flows, and, therefore, the price of its stock Naturally, managers should make investment and financing decisions that are designed to maximize the firm’s stock price Although managerial actions affect stock prices, stocks are also influenced by such external factors as legal constraints, the general level of economic activity, tax laws, interest rates, and conditions in the stock market See Figure 1-1 Working within the set of external constraints shown in the box at the extreme left, management makes a set of FIGURE 1-1 External Constraints: Antitrust Laws Environmental Regulations Product and Workplace Safety Regulations Employment Practices Rules Federal Reserve Policy International Rules Summary of Major Factors Affecting Stock Prices Strategic Policy Decisions Controlled by Management: Types of Products or Services Produced Production Methods Used Research and Development Efforts Relative Use of Debt Financing Dividend Policy Level of Economic Activity and Corporate Taxes Conditions in the Financial Markets Expected Cash Flows Timing of Cash Flows Perceived Risk of Cash Flows Stock Price 10 An Overview of Corporate Finance and the Financial Environment 12 CHAPTER An Overview of Corporate Finance and the Financial Environment long-run strategic policy decisions that chart a future course for the firm These policy decisions, along with the general level of economic activity and the level of corporate income taxes, influence expected cash flows, their timing, and their perceived risk These factors all affect the price of the stock, but so does the overall condition of the financial markets What is management’s primary objective? How does stock price maximization benefit society? What three basic factors determine the price of a stock? What three factors determine cash flows? The Financial Markets Businesses, individuals, and governments often need to raise capital For example, suppose Carolina Power & Light (CP&L) forecasts an increase in the demand for electricity in North Carolina, and the company decides to build a new power plant Because CP&L almost certainly will not have the $1 billion or so necessary to pay for the plant, the company will have to raise this capital in the financial markets Or suppose Mr Fong, the proprietor of a San Francisco hardware store, decides to expand into appliances Where will he get the money to buy the initial inventory of TV sets, washers, and freezers? Similarly, if the Johnson family wants to buy a home that costs $100,000, but they have only $20,000 in savings, how can they raise the additional $80,000? If the city of New York wants to borrow $200 million to finance a new sewer plant, or the federal government needs money to meet its needs, they too need access to the capital markets On the other hand, some individuals and firms have incomes that are greater than their current expenditures, so they have funds available to invest For example, Carol Hawk has an income of $36,000, but her expenses are only $30,000, leaving $6,000 to invest Similarly, Ford Motor Company has accumulated roughly $16 billion of cash and marketable securities, which it has available for future investments Types of Markets People and organizations who want to borrow money are brought together with those with surplus funds in the financial markets Note that “markets” is plural—there are a great many different financial markets in a developed economy such as ours Each market deals with a somewhat different type of instrument in terms of the instrument’s maturity and the assets backing it Also, different markets serve different types of customers, or operate in different parts of the country Here are some of the major types of markets: Physical asset markets (also called “tangible” or “real” asset markets) are those for such products as wheat, autos, real estate, computers, and machinery Financial asset markets, on the other hand, deal with stocks, bonds, notes, mortgages, and other financial instruments All of these instruments are simply pieces of paper with contractual provisions that entitle their owners to specific rights and claims on real assets For example, a corporate bond issued by IBM entitles its owner to a specific claim on the cash flows produced by IBM’s physical assets, while a share of IBM stock entitles its owner to a different set of claims on IBM’s cash flows Unlike these conventional financial instruments, the contractual provisions of derivatives 636 Option Pricing with Applications to Real Options The Investment Timing Option: An Illustration 641 with certainty Perhaps, then, we should discount it at the risk-free rate.10 Third, the project’s cash inflows (excluding the initial investment) are different in Part than in Part because the low-demand cash flows are eliminated This suggests that if 14 percent is the appropriate cost of capital in the “proceed immediately” case, some lower rate would be appropriate in the “delay decision” case In Figure 17-3, Part 1, we repeat the “delay decision” analysis, with one exception We continue to discount the operating cash flows in years 2004, 2005, and 2006 at the 14 percent WACC, but now we discount the project’s cost back to 2002 at the risk-free rate, percent This increases the PV of the cost at 2002, and that lowers the NPV from $9.36 million to $6.88 million Note, though, that we really don’t know the precisely appropriate WACC for the project—the 14 percent we used might be too high or too low for the operating cash flows in 2004, 2005, and 2006.11 Therefore, in Part of Figure 17-3 we show a sensitivity analysis of the NPV where the discount rates used for both the operating cash flows and for the project’s cost vary This sensitivity analysis shows that under all reasonable WACCs, the NPV of delaying is greater than $1.08 million, the NPV of immediate implementation This means that the option to wait is more valuable than the $1.08 million resulting from immediate implementation Therefore, Murphy should wait rather than implement the project immediately Approach Valuing the Timing Option with the Black-Scholes Model12 The decision tree approach, coupled with a sensitivity analysis, may provide enough information for a good decision However, it is often useful to obtain additional insights into the real option’s value, which means using the fourth procedure, an option pricing model To this, the analyst must find a standard financial option that resembles the project’s real option.13 As noted earlier, Murphy’s option to delay the project is similar to a call option on a stock, hence the Black-Scholes option pricing model can be used This model requires five inputs: (1) the risk-free rate, (2) the time until the option expires, (3) the exercise price, (4) the current price of the stock, and (5) the variance of the stock’s rate of return Therefore, we need to estimate values for those five factors First, assuming that the rate on a 52-week Treasury bill is percent, this rate can be used as the risk-free rate Second, Murphy must decide within a year whether or not to implement the project, so there is one year until the option expires Third, it will cost $50 million to implement the project, so $50 million can be used for the exercise price Fourth, we need a proxy for the value of the underlying asset, which in Black-Scholes is 10 See Timothy A Luehrman, “Investment Opportunities as Real Options: Getting Started on the Numbers,” Harvard Business Review, July–August 1998, 51–67, for a more detailed explanation of the rationale for using the risk-free rate to discount the project cost This paper also provides a discussion of real option valuation Professor Luehrman also has a follow-up paper that provides an excellent discussion of the ways real options affect strategy See Timothy A Luehrman, “Strategy as a Portfolio of Real Options,” Harvard Business Review, September–October 1998, 89–99 11 The cash inflows if we delay might be considered more risky if there is a chance that the delay might cause those flows to decline due to the loss of Murphy’s “first mover advantage.” Put another way, we might gain information by waiting, and that could lower risk, but if a delay would enable others to enter and perhaps preempt the market, this could increase risk In our example, we assumed that Murphy has a patent on critical components of the device, hence that no one could come in and preempt its position in the market 12 This section is relatively technical, but it can be omitted without loss of continuity 13 In theory, financial option pricing models apply only to assets that are continuously traded in a market Even though real options usually don’t meet this criterion, financial option models often provide a reasonably accurate approximation of the real option’s value Option Pricing with Applications to Real Options 642 CHAPTER 17 Option Pricing with Applications to Real Options FIGURE 17-3 PART Decision Tree and Sensitivity Analysis for the Investment Timing Option (Millions of Dollars) DECISION TREE ANALYSIS: IMPLEMENT IN ONE YEAR ONLY IF OPTIMAL (DISCOUNT COST AT THE RISK-FREE RATE AND OPERATING CASH FLOWS AT THE WACC) Future Cash Flows 2002 Wait PART 0.2 High 0.50 Average 0.2 Low NPV of This Scenarioc Probability Probability ؋ NPV 2003 2004 2005 2006 Ϫ$50 $33 $33 $33 $20.04 0.25 $5.01 Ϫ$50 $25 $25 $25 $3.74 0.50 $1.87 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0.00 0.25 1.00 $0.00 Expected value of NPVs ϭ $6.88 Standard deviationa ϭ $7.75 Coefficient of variationb ϭ 1.13 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF NPV TO CHANGES IN THE COST OF CAPITAL USED TO DISCOUNT COST AND CASH FLOWS Cost of Capital Used to Discount the 2004–2006 Operating Cash Flows Cost of Capital Used to Discount the 2003 Cost 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 11.0% 12.0% 13.0% 14.0% 15.0% 16.0% 17.0% 18.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% $13.11 11.78 10.50 9.27 8.09 6.95 5.85 4.79 3.77 2.78 1.83 $13.46 12.13 10.85 9.62 8.44 7.30 6.20 5.14 4.12 3.13 2.18 $13.80 12.47 11.20 9.97 8.78 7.64 6.54 5.48 4.46 3.47 2.52 $14.14 12.81 11.53 10.30 9.12 7.98 6.88 5.82 4.80 3.81 2.86 $14.47 13.14 11.86 10.64 9.45 8.31 7.21 6.15 5.13 4.14 3.19 $14.79 13.47 12.19 10.96 9.78 8.64 7.54 6.48 5.45 4.46 3.51 $15.11 13.78 12.51 11.28 10.09 8.95 7.85 6.79 5.77 4.78 3.83 Notes: a The standard deviation is calculated as in Chapter b The coefficient of variation is the standard deviation divided by the expected value c The operating cash flows in years 2004–2006 are discounted at the WACC of 14 percent The cost in 2003 is discounted at the risk-free rate of percent the current price of the stock Note that a stock’s current price is the present value of its expected future cash flows For Murphy’s real option, the underlying asset is the project itself, and its current “price” is the present value of its expected future cash flows Therefore, as a proxy for the stock price we can use the present value of the project’s future cash flows And fifth, the variance of the project’s expected return can be used to represent the variance of the stock’s return in the Black-Scholes model Figure 17-4 shows how one can estimate the present value of the project’s cash inflows We need to find the current value of the underlying asset, that is, the project 637 638 Option Pricing with Applications to Real Options The Investment Timing Option: An Illustration FIGURE 17-4 643 Estimating the Input for Stock Price in the Option Analysis of the Investment Timing Option (Millions of Dollars) Future Cash Flows 2002 Wait 2003 0.25 High 0.50 Average 0.2 Low 2004 2005 2006 PV of This Scenarioc $33 $33 $33 $67.21 0.25 $16.80 $25 $25 $25 $50.91 0.50 $25.46 $5 $5 $5 $10.18 0.25 1.00 $2.55 Probability Probability ؋ PV Expected value of PVsd ϭ $44.80 Standard deviationa ϭ $21.07 Coefficient of variationb ϭ 0.47 Notes: a The standard deviation is calculated as in Chapter b The coefficient of variation is the standard deviation divided by the expected value c The WACC is 14 percent All cash flows in this scenario are discounted back to 2002 d Here we find the PV, not the NPV, as the project’s cost is ignored For a stock, the current price is the present value of all expected future cash flows, including those that are expected even if we not exercise the call option Note also that the exercise price for a call option has no effect on the stock’s current price.14 For our real option, the underlying asset is the delayed project, and its current “price” is the present value of all its future expected cash flows Just as the price of a stock includes all of its future cash flows, the present value of the project should include all its possible future cash flows Moreover, since the price of a stock is not affected by the exercise price of a call option, we ignore the project’s “exercise price,” or cost, when we find its present value Figure 17-4 shows the expected cash flows if the project is delayed The PV of these cash flows as of today (2002) is $44.80 million, and this is the input we should use for the current price in the Black-Scholes model The last required input is the variance of the project’s return Three different approaches could be used to estimate this input First, we could use judgment—an educated guess Here we would begin by recalling that a company is a portfolio of projects (or assets), with each project having its own risk Since returns on the company’s stock reflect the diversification gained by combining many projects, we might expect the variance of the stock’s returns to be lower than the variance of one of its average projects The variance of an average company’s stock return is about 12 percent, so we might expect the variance for a typical project to be somewhat higher, say, 15 to 25 percent Companies in the Internet infrastructure industry are riskier than average, so we might subjectively estimate the variance of Murphy’s project to be in the range of 18 percent to 30 percent 14 The company itself is not involved with traded stock options However, if the option were a warrant issued by the company, then the exercise price would affect the company’s cash flows, hence its stock price Option Pricing with Applications to Real Options 644 CHAPTER 17 Option Pricing with Applications to Real Options The second approach, called the direct method, is to estimate the rate of return for each possible outcome and then calculate the variance of those returns First, Part in Figure 17-5 shows the PV for each possible outcome as of 2003, the time when the option expires Here we simply find the present value of all future operating cash flows discounted back to 2003, using the WACC of 14 percent The 2003 present value is $76.61 million for high demand, $58.04 million for average demand, and $11.61 million for low demand Then, in Part 2, we show the percentage return from the current time until the option expires for each scenario, based on the $44.80 million starting “price” of the project in 2002 as calculated in Figure 17-4 If demand is high, we will obtain a return of 71.0 percent: ($76.61 Ϫ $44.80)/$44.80 ϭ 0.710 ϭ 71.0 percent) Similar calculations show returns of 29.5 percent for average demand and Ϫ74.1 percent for low demand The expected percentage return is 14 percent, the standard deviation is 53.6 percent, and the variance is 28.7 percent.15 The third approach for estimating the variance is also based on the scenario data, but the data are used in a different manner First, we know that demand is not really limited to three scenarios—rather, a wide range of outcomes is possible Similarly, the stock price at the time a call option expires could take on one of many values It is reasonable to assume that the value of the project at the time when we must decide on undertaking it behaves similarly to the price of a stock at the time a call option expires Under this assumption, we can use the expected value and standard deviation of the project’s value to calculate the variance of its rate of return, ␴2, with this formula:16 ␴2 ϭ ln(CV2 ϩ 1) t (17-4) Here CV is the coefficient of variation of the underlying asset’s price at the time the option expires and t is the time until the option expires Thus, while the three scenarios are simplifications of the true condition, where there are an infinite number of possible outcomes, we can still use the scenario data to estimate the variance of the project’s rate of return if it had an infinite number of possible outcomes For Murphy’s project, this indirect method produces the following estimate of the variance of the project’s return: ␴2 ϭ ln(0.472 ϩ 1) ϭ 0.20 ϭ 20% (17-4a) Which of the three approaches is best? Obviously, they all involve judgment, so an analyst might want to consider all three In our example, all three methods produce similar estimates, but for illustrative purposes we will simply use 20 percent as our initial estimate for the variance of the project’s rate of return Part of Figure 17-6 calculates the value of the option to defer investment in the project based on the Black-Scholes model, and the result is $7.04 million Since this is significantly higher than the $1.08 million NPV under immediate implementation, and since the option would be forfeited if Murphy goes ahead right now, we conclude that the company should defer the final decision until more information is available 15 Two points should be made about the percentage return First, for use in the Black-Scholes model, we need a percentage return calculated as shown, not an IRR return The IRR is not used in the option pricing approach Second, the expected return turns out to be 14 percent, the same as the WACC This is because the 2002 price and the 2003 PVs were all calculated using the 14 percent WACC, and because we are measuring return over only one year If we measure the compound return over more than one year, then the average return generally will not equal 14 percent 16 See David C Shimko, Finance in Continuous Time (Miami, FL: Kolb Publishing Company, 1992), for a more detailed explanation 639 640 Option Pricing with Applications to Real Options FIGURE 17-5 PART Estimating the Input for Variance in the Option Analysis of the Investment Timing Option (Millions of Dollars) FIND THE VALUE AND RISK OF FUTURE CASH FLOWS AT THE TIME THE OPTION EXPIRES 2004 2005 PV in 2003 for This 2006 Scenarioc Probability $33 $33 $33 $76.61 0.25 $19.15 $25 $25 $25 $58.04 0.50 $29.02 $5 $5 $5 $11.61 0.25 1.00 $2.90 Future Cash Flows 2002 Wait 2003 High Average Low 0.25 0.50 0.25 Expected value of PV2003 ϭ $51.08 ϭ $24.02 Coefficient of variation of PV2003b ϭ 0.47 Standard deviation of PART Probability ؋ PV2003 PV2003a DIRECT METHOD: USE THE SCENARIOS TO DIRECTLY ESTIMATE THE VARIANCE OF THE PROJECT’S RETURN Price2002d $44.80 0.25 High 0.50 Average 0.25 Low Probability Probability ؋ Return2003 PV2003e Return2003f $76.61 71.0% 0.25 17.8% $58.04 29.5% 0.50 14.8% $11.61 Ϫ74.1% 0.25 Ϫ18.5% 1.00 Expected return ϭ 14.0% Standard deviation of returna ϭ 53.6% Variance of return ϭ 28.7% g PART INDIRECT METHOD: USE THE SCENARIOS TO INDIRECTLY ESTIMATE THE VARIANCE OF THE PROJECT’S RETURN Expected “price” at the time the option expiresh ϭ Standard deviation of expected “price” at the time the option expiresi ϭ Coefficient of variation (CV) ϭ Time (in years) until the option expires (t) ϭ Variance of the project’s expected return ϭ ln(CV2 ϩ 1)/t ϭ Notes: a The standard deviation is calculated as explained in Chapter b The coefficient of variation is the standard deviation divided by the expected value c The WACC is 14 percent The 2004–2006 cash flows are discounted back to 2003 d The 2002 price is the expected PV from Figure 17-4 e The 2003 PVs are from Part f The returns for each scenario are calculated as (PV2003 Ϫ Price2002)/Price2002 g The variance of return is the standard deviation squared h The expected “price” at the time the option expires is taken from Part i The standard deviation of expected “price” at the time the option expires is taken from Part $51.08 $24.02 0.47 20.0% Option Pricing with Applications to Real Options 646 CHAPTER 17 Option Pricing with Applications to Real Options FIGURE 17-6 PART Estimating the Value of the Investment Timing Option Using a Standard Financial Option (Millions of Dollars) FIND THE VALUE OF A CALL OPTION USING THE BLACK-SCHOLES MODEL Real Option rRF ϭ tϭ Xϭ Pϭ ␴2 ϭ d1 ϭ d2 ϭ N(d1) ϭ N(d2) ϭ Vϭ PART Risk-free interest rate Time in years until the option expires Cost to implement the project Current value of the project Variance of the project’s rate of return {ln(P/X) ϩ [rRF ϩ (␴2/2)]t}/(␴t1/2) d1 Ϫ ␴(t1/2) P[N(d1)] Ϫ XeϪrRFt[N(d2)] ϭ ϭ ϭ ϭ ϭ ϭ ϭ ϭ ϭ ϭ 6% $50.00 $44.80a 20.0%b 0.112 Ϫ0.33 0.54 0.37 $7.04 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF OPTION VALUE TO CHANGES IN VARIANCE Variance Option Value 12.0% 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0 22.0 24.0 26.0 28.0 30.0 32.0 $5.24 5.74 6.20 6.63 7.04 7.42 7.79 8.15 8.49 8.81 9.13 Notes: a The current value of the project is taken from Figure 17-4 b The variance of the project’s rate of return is taken from Part of Figure 17-5 Note, though, that judgmental estimates were made at many points in the analysis, and it is useful to see how sensitive the final outcome is to certain of the key inputs Thus, in Part of Figure 17-6 we show the sensitivity of the option’s value to different estimates of the variance It is comforting to see that for all reasonable estimates of variance, the option to delay remains more valuable than immediate implementation Approach Financial Engineering Sometimes an analyst might not be satisfied with the results of a decision tree analysis and cannot find a standard financial option that corresponds to the real option In such a situation the only alternative is to develop a unique model for the specific real option being analyzed, which is called financial engineering When financial engineering is applied on Wall Street, where it was developed, the result is a newly designed financial 641 642 Option Pricing with Applications to Real Options Concluding Thoughts on Real Options 647 Growth Options at Dot-com Companies In September 2000, several dot-com companies had recently failed, including DEN (Digital Entertainment Network) and Boo.com, an e-tailer of clothing Other dot-coms had incredible market valuations, such as Yahoo! ($58.2 billion), Amazon.com ($15.5 billion) and America Online ($126.9 billion) What explains these wide variations in values? It’s certainly not the physical assets the companies own, since Yahoo! has enormous value but virtually no physical assets Based on the corporate valuation model of Chapter 12, we might be tempted to say the differences are explained by free cash flows Perhaps dot-coms such as Amazon and Yahoo! have large expected future free cash flows, and their high values reflect this, but we certainly can’t base that conclusion on their past results This is where real options come into play Given its name recognition, infrastructure, and customer base, Amazon is in a position to grow into a variety of businesses, some of which might be very profitable The same is true for Yahoo! and AOL In other words, they have many growth options with very low exercise prices We know from our discussion of real options that an option is more valuable if the underlying source of risk is very volatile, and it’s hard to imagine anything more volatile than the prospects of profitability in e-commerce The field of e-commerce may end up being so competitive that there is little profit for the participating companies, or it may replace most existing forms of commerce, with the first-movers having an enormous advantage This uncertainty means that a growth option in e-commerce is very valuable Therefore, companies with many growth options should have high valuations Note that just being a dot-com company is not enough to create value DEN and Boo.com had substantial obligations but very few options, which led to their demise For dot-com companies, the key to high valuations is to create as many growth options as possible Source: Geoffrey Colvin, “You’re Only as Good as Your Choices,” Fortune, June 12, 2000, 75 Reprinted by permission product.17 When it is applied to real options, the result is the value of a project that contains embedded options Although financial engineering was originally developed on Wall Street, many financial engineering techniques have been applied to real options during the last ten years We expect this trend to continue, especially in light of the rapid improvements in computer processing speed and spreadsheet software capabilities One financial engineering technique is called risk-neutral valuation This technique uses simulation, and we discuss it in the Chapter 17 Web Extension located on the textbook’s web site Most other financial engineering techniques are too complicated for an introductory course in financial management, and so we leave a detailed discussion of them to a later course For illustrative valuations of growth options and abandonment options, see the Chapter 17 Web Extension The calculations are also shown in Ch 17 Tool Kit.xls, found on the textbook’s web site What is a decision tree? In a qualitative analysis, what factors affect the value of a real option? Concluding Thoughts on Real Options We don’t deny that real options can be pretty complicated Keep in mind, however, that 50 years ago very few companies used NPV because it seemed too complicated Now NPV is a basic tool used by virtually all companies and taught in all business 17 Financial engineering techniques are widely used for the creation and valuation of derivative securities Option Pricing with Applications to Real Options 648 CHAPTER 17 Option Pricing with Applications to Real Options schools A similar, but more rapid, pattern of adoption is occurring with real options Ten years ago very few companies used real options, but a recent survey of CFOs reported that more than 26 percent of companies now use real option techniques when evaluating projects.18 Just as with NPV, it’s only a matter of time before virtually all companies use real option techniques We have provided you with some basic tools necessary for evaluating real options, starting with the ability to identify real options and make qualitative assessments regarding a real option’s value Decision trees are another important tool, since they require an explicit identification of the embedded options, which is very important in the decision-making process However, keep in mind that the decision tree should not use the original project’s cost of capital Although finance theory has not yet provided a way to estimate the appropriate cost of capital for a decision tree, sensitivity analysis can identify the effect that different costs of capital have on the project’s value Many real options can be analyzed using a standard model for an existing financial option, such as the Black-Scholes model for calls and puts There are also other financial models for a variety of options These include the option to exchange one asset for another, the option to purchase the minimum or the maximum of two or more assets, the option on an average of several assets, and even an option on an option.19 In fact, there are entire textbooks that describe even more options.20 Given the large number of standard models for existing financial options, it is often possible to find a financial option that resembles the real option being analyzed Sometimes there are some real options that don’t resemble any financial options But the good news is that many of these options can be valued using techniques from financial engineering This is frequently the case if there is a traded financial asset that matches the risk of the real option For example, many oil companies use oil futures contracts to price the real options that are embedded in various exploration and leasing strategies With the explosion in the markets for derivatives, there are now financial contracts that span an incredible variety of risks This means that an ever-increasing number of real options can be valued using these financial instruments Most financial engineering techniques are beyond the scope of this book, but we list some useful sources in the references at the end of the chapter In addition, the Chapter 17 Web Extension describes one particularly useful financial engineering technique called risk-neutral valuation How widely used is real option analysis? What techniques can be used to analyze real options? Summary In this chapter we discussed some topics that go beyond the simple capital budgeting framework, including the following: 18 See John R Graham and Cambell R Harvey, “The Theory and Practice of Corporate Finance: Evidence from the Field,” Journal of Financial Economics, 2001, Vol 60, 187–243 19 See W Margrabe, “The Value of an Option to Exchange One Asset for Another,” Journal of Finance, March 1978, 177–186; R Stulz, “Options on the Minimum or Maximum of Two Risky Assets: Analysis and Applications,” Journal of Financial Economics, 1982, 161–185; H Johnson, “Options on the Maximum or Minimum of Several Assets,” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, September 1987, 277–283; P Ritchken, L Sankarasubramanian, and A M Vijh, “Averaging Options for Capping Total Costs,” Financial Management, Autumn 1990, 35–41; and R Geske, “The Valuation of Compound Options,” Journal of Financial Economics, March 1979, 63–81 20 See John C Hull, Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 3rd ed (Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall, 1997) 643 644 Option Pricing with Applications to Real Options Questions ᭹ ᭹ ᭹ ᭹ ᭹ ᭹ ᭹ ᭹ ᭹ ᭹ ᭹ ᭹ ᭹ Investing in a new project often brings with it a potential increase in the firm’s future opportunities Opportunities are, in effect, options—the right but not the obligation to take some future action A project may have an option value that is not accounted for in a conventional NPV analysis Any project that expands the firm’s set of opportunities has positive option value Financial options are instruments that (1) are created by exchanges rather than firms, (2) are bought and sold primarily by investors, and (3) are of importance to both investors and financial managers The two primary types of financial options are (1) call options, which give the holder the right to purchase a specified asset at a given price (the exercise, or strike, price) for a given period of time, and (2) put options, which give the holder the right to sell an asset at a given price for a given period of time A call option’s exercise value is defined as the maximum of zero or the current price of the stock less the strike price The Black-Scholes Option Pricing Model (OPM) can be used to estimate the value of a call option Opportunities to respond to changing circumstances are called managerial options because they give managers the option to influence the outcome of a project They are also called strategic options because they are often associated with large, strategic projects rather than routine maintenance projects Finally, they are also called real options because they involve “real,” rather than “financial,” assets Many projects include a variety of embedded options that can dramatically affect the true NPV Examples of embedded options include (1) “investment timing options” that allow a firm to delay a project, (2) “growth options” that enable a firm to manage its capacity in response to changing market conditions, (3) “abandonment options,” and (4) “flexibility” options that allow a firm to modify its operations over time An investment timing option involves not only the decision of whether to proceed with a project but also the decision of when to proceed with it This opportunity to affect a project’s timing can dramatically change its estimated value A growth option occurs if an investment creates the opportunity to make other potentially profitable investments that would not otherwise be possible These include: (1) options to expand output, (2) options to enter a new geographical market, and (3) options to introduce complementary products or successive generations of products The abandonment option is the ability to abandon a project if the operating cash flows and/or abandonment value turn out to be lower than expected It reduces the riskiness of a project and increases its value Instead of total abandonment, some options allow a company to reduce capacity or temporarily suspend operations A flexibility option is the option to modify operations depending on how conditions develop during a project’s life, especially the type of output produced or the inputs used There are five possible procedures for valuing real options: (1) DCF analysis only, and ignore the real option; (2) DCF analysis and a qualitative assessment of the real option’s value; (3) decision tree analysis; (4) analysis with a standard model for an existing financial option; and (5) financial engineering techniques Questions 17–1 649 Define each of the following terms: a Option; call option; put option b Exercise value; strike price c Black-Scholes Option Pricing Model d Real options; managerial options; strategic options; embedded option Option Pricing with Applications to Real Options 650 CHAPTER 17 Option Pricing with Applications to Real Options e Investment timing option; growth option; abandonment option; flexibility option f Decision trees 17–2 Why options typically sell at prices higher than their exercise values? 17–3 What factors should a company consider when it decides whether to invest in a project today or to wait until more information becomes available? 17–4 In general, timing options make it more or less likely that a project will be accepted today? 17–5 If a company has an option to abandon a project, would this tend to make the company more or less likely to accept the project today? Self-Test Problems ST–1 OPTIONS ST–2 OPTIONS (Solutions Appear in Appendix A) A call option on the stock of Bedrock Boulders has a market price of $7 The stock sells for $30 a share, and the option has an exercise price of $25 a share a What is the exercise value of the call option? b What is the premium on the option? Which of the following events are likely to increase the market value of a call option on a common stock? Explain a An increase in the stock’s price b An increase in the volatility of the stock price c An increase in the risk-free rate d A decrease in the time until the option expires Problems 17–1 Assume you have been given the following information on Purcell Industries: BLACK-SCHOLES MODEL Current stock price ϭ $15 Time to maturity of option ϭ months Variance of stock price ϭ 0.12 d2 ϭ 0.08165 N(d2) ϭ 0.53252 Exercise price of option ϭ $15 Risk-free rate ϭ 10% d1 ϭ 0.32660 N(d1) ϭ 0.62795 Using the Black-Scholes Option Pricing Model, what would be the value of the option? 17–2 OPTIONS 17–3 INVESTMENT TIMING OPTION: DECISION TREE ANALYSIS The exercise price on one of Flanagan Company’s options is $15, its exercise value is $22, and its premium is $5 What are the option’s market value and the price of the stock? Kim Hotels is interested in developing a new hotel in Seoul The company estimates that the hotel would require an initial investment of $20 million Kim expects that the hotel will produce positive cash flows of $3 million a year at the end of each of the next 20 years The project’s cost of capital is 13 percent a What is the project’s net present value? b While Kim expects the cash flows to be $3 million a year, it recognizes that the cash flows could, in fact, be much higher or lower, depending on whether the Korean government imposes a large hotel tax One year from now, Kim will know whether the tax will be imposed There is a 50 percent chance that the tax will be imposed, in which case the yearly cash flows will be only $2.2 million At the same time, there is a 50 percent chance that the tax will not be imposed, in which case the yearly cash flows will be $3.8 million Kim is deciding whether to proceed with the hotel today or to wait year to find out whether the tax will be imposed If Kim waits a year, the initial investment will remain at $20 million Assume that all cash flows are discounted at 13 percent Using decision tree analysis, should Kim proceed with the project today or should it wait a year before deciding? 645 646 Option Pricing with Applications to Real Options Problems 17–4 INVESTMENT TIMING OPTION: DECISION TREE ANALYSIS 17–5 INVESTMENT TIMING OPTION: DECISION TREE ANALYSIS 17–6 REAL OPTIONS: DECISION TREE ANALYSIS 17–7 INVESTMENT TIMING OPTION: OPTION ANALYSIS 651 The Karns Oil Company is deciding whether to drill for oil on a tract of land that the company owns The company estimates that the project would cost $8 million today Karns estimates that once drilled, the oil will generate positive net cash flows of $4 million a year at the end of each of the next years While the company is fairly confident about its cash flow forecast, it recognizes that if it waits years, it would have more information about the local geology as well as the price of oil Karns estimates that if it waits years, the project would cost $9 million Moreover, if it waits years, there is a 90 percent chance that the net cash flows would be $4.2 million a year for years, and there is a 10 percent chance that the cash flows will be $2.2 million a year for years Assume that all cash flows are discounted at 10 percent a If the company chooses to drill today, what is the project’s net present value? b Using decision tree analysis, would it make sense to wait years before deciding whether to drill? Hart Lumber is considering the purchase of a paper company Purchasing the company would require an initial investment of $300 million Hart estimates that the paper company would provide net cash flows of $40 million at the end of each of the next 20 years The cost of capital for the paper company is 13 percent a Should Hart purchase the paper company? b While Hart’s best guess is that cash flows will be $40 million a year, it recognizes that there is a 50 percent chance the cash flows will be $50 million a year, and a 50 percent chance that the cash flows will be $30 million a year One year from now, it will find out whether the cash flows will be $30 million or $50 million In addition, Hart also recognizes that if it wanted, it could sell the company at Year for $280 million Given this additional information, does using decision tree analysis indicate that it makes sense to purchase the paper company? Again, assume that all cash flows are discounted at 13 percent Utah Enterprises is considering buying a vacant lot that sells for $1.2 million If the property is purchased, the company’s plan is to spend another $5 million today (t ϭ 0) to build a hotel on the property The after-tax cash flows from the hotel will depend critically on whether the state imposes a tourism tax in this year’s legislative session If the tax is imposed, the hotel is expected to produce after-tax cash inflows of $600,000 at the end of each of the next 15 years If the tax is not imposed, the hotel is expected to produce after-tax cash inflows of $1,200,000 at the end of each of the next 15 years The project has a 12 percent cost of capital Assume at the outset that the company does not have the option to delay the project Use decision tree analysis to answer the following questions a What is the project’s expected NPV if the tax is imposed? b What is the project’s expected NPV if the tax is not imposed? c Given that there is a 50 percent chance that the tax will be imposed, what is the project’s expected NPV if they proceed with it today? d While the company does not have an option to delay construction, it does have the option to abandon the project year from now if the tax is imposed If it abandons the project, it would sell the complete property year from now at an expected price of $6 million Once the project is abandoned the company would no longer receive any cash inflows from it Assuming that all cash flows are discounted at 12 percent, would the existence of this abandonment option affect the company’s decision to proceed with the project today? e Finally, assume that there is no option to abandon or delay the project, but that the company has an option to purchase an adjacent property in year at a price of $1.5 million If the tourism tax is imposed, the net present value of developing this property (as of t ϭ 1) is only $300,000 (so it wouldn’t make sense to purchase the property for $1.5 million) However, if the tax is not imposed, the net present value of the future opportunities from developing the property would be $4 million (as of t ϭ 1) Thus, under this scenario it would make sense to purchase the property for $1.5 million Assume that these cash flows are discounted at 12 percent, and the probability that the tax will be imposed is still 50 percent How much would the company pay today for the option to purchase this property year from now for $1.5 million? Rework Problem 17-3 using the Black-Scholes model to estimate the value of the option (Hint: Assume the variance of the project’s rate of return is 6.87 percent and the risk-free rate is percent.) Option Pricing with Applications to Real Options 652 CHAPTER 17 Option Pricing with Applications to Real Options 17–8 INVESTMENT TIMING OPTION: OPTION ANALYSIS Rework Problem 17-4 using the Black-Scholes model to estimate the value of the option: The risk-free rate is percent (Hint: Assume the variance of the project’s rate of return is 1.11 percent.) Spreadsheet Problems 17–9 BUILD A MODEL: BLACK-SCHOLES MODEL 17–10 BUILD A MODEL: REAL OPTIONS See Ch 17 Show.ppt and Ch 17 Mini Case.xls Start with the partial model in the file Ch 17 P9 Build a Model.xls from the textbook’s web site Rework Problem 17-1 Then work the next two parts of this problem given below a Construct data tables for the exercise value and Black-Scholes option value for this option, and graph this relationship Include possible stock price values ranging up to $30.00 b Suppose this call option is purchased today Draw the profit diagram of this option position at expiration Start with the partial model in the file Ch 17 P10 Build a Model.xls from the textbook’s web site Bradford Services Inc (BSI) is considering a project that has a cost of $10 million and an expected life of years There is a 30 percent probability of good conditions, in which case the project will provide a cash flow of $9 million at the end of each year for years There is 40 percent probability of medium conditions, in which case the annual cash flows will be $4 million, and there is a 30 percent probability of bad conditions and a cash flow of Ϫ$1 million per year BSI uses a 12 percent cost of capital to evaluate projects like this a Find the project’s expected present value, NPV, and the coefficient of variation of the present value b Now suppose that BSI can abandon the project at the end of the first year by selling it for $6 million BSI will still receive the Year cash flows, but will receive no cash flows in subsequent years c Now assume that the project cannot be shut down However, expertise gained by taking it on will lead to an opportunity at the end of Year to undertake a venture that would have the same cost as the original project, and the new project’s cash flows would follow whichever branch resulted for the original project In other words, there would be a second $10 million cost at the end of Year 3, and then cash flows of either $9 million, $4 million, or Ϫ$1 million for the following years Use decision tree analysis to estimate the value of the project, including the opportunity to implement the new project at Year Assume the $10 million cost at Year is known with certainty and should be discounted at the risk-free rate of percent d Now suppose the original (no abandonment and no additional growth) project could be delayed a year All the cash flows would remain unchanged, but information obtained during that year would tell the company exactly which set of demand conditions existed Use decision tree analysis to estimate the value of the project if it is delayed by year (Hint: Discount the $10 million cost at the risk-free rate of percent since it is known with certainty.) e Go back to part c Instead of using decision tree analysis, use the Black-Scholes model to estimate the value of the growth option The risk-free rate is percent, and the variance of the project’s rate of return is 22 percent Assume that you have just been hired as a financial analyst by Tropical Sweets Inc., a mid-sized California company that specializes in creating exotic candies from tropical fruits such as mangoes, papayas, and dates The firm’s CEO, George Yamaguchi, recently returned from an industry corporate executive conference in San Francisco, and one of the sessions he attended was on real options Because no one at Tropical Sweets is familiar with the basics of either financial or real options, Yamaguchi has asked you to prepare a brief report that the firm’s executives could use to gain at least a cursory understanding of the topics To begin, you gathered some outside materials on the subject and used these materials to draft a list of pertinent questions that need to be answered In fact, one possible approach to the paper is to use a question-and-answer format Now that the questions have been drafted, you have to develop the answers 647 648 Option Pricing with Applications to Real Options Mini Case 653 a What is a real option? What is a financial option? What is the single most important characteristic of an option? b Options have a unique set of terminology Define the following terms: (1) Call option (2) Put option (3) Exercise price (4) Striking, or strike, price (5) Option price (6) Expiration date (7) Exercise value (8) Covered option (9) Naked option (10) In-the-money call (11) Out-of-the-money call (12) LEAPS c Consider Tropical Sweets’ call option with a $25 strike price The following table contains historical values for this option at different stock prices: Stock Price Call Option Price $25 30 35 40 45 50 $3.00 7.50 12.00 16.50 21.00 25.50 (1) Create a table which shows (a) stock price, (b) strike price, (c) exercise value, (d) option price, and (e) the premium of option price over exercise value (2) What happens to the premium of option price over exercise value as the stock price rises? Why? d In 1973, Fischer Black and Myron Scholes developed the Black-Scholes Option Pricing Model (OPM) (1) What assumptions underlie the OPM? (2) Write out the three equations that constitute the model (3) What is the value of the following call option according to the OPM? Stock price ϭ $27.00 Exercise price ϭ $25.00 Time to expiration ϭ months Risk-free rate ϭ 6.0% Stock return variance ϭ 0.11 e What impact does each of the following call option parameters have on the value of a call option? (1) Current stock price (2) Exercise price (3) Option’s term to maturity (4) Risk-free rate (5) Variability of the stock price f What are some types of real options? g What are five possible procedures for analyzing a real option? h Tropical Sweets is considering a project that will cost $70 million and will generate expected cash flows of $30 million per year for years The cost of capital for this type of project is 10 percent and the risk-free rate is percent After discussions with the market- Option Pricing with Applications to Real Options 654 CHAPTER 17 Option Pricing with Applications to Real Options i j k l m n o ing department, you learn that there is a 30 percent chance of high demand, with future cash flows of $45 million per year There is a 40 percent chance of average demand, with cash flows of $30 million per year If demand is low (a 30 percent chance), cash flows will be only $15 million per year What is the expected NPV? Now suppose this project has an investment timing option, since it can be delayed for a year The cost will still be $70 million at the end of the year, and the cash flows for the scenarios will still last years However, Tropical Sweets will know the level of demand, and will implement the project only if it adds value to the company Perform a qualitative assessment of the investment timing option’s value Use decision tree analysis to calculate the NPV of the project with the investment timing option Use a financial option pricing model to estimate the value of the investment timing option Now suppose the cost of the project is $75 million and the project cannot be delayed But if Tropical Sweets implements the project, then Tropical Sweets will have a growth option It will have the opportunity to replicate the original project at the end of its life What is the total expected NPV of the two projects if both are implemented? Tropical Sweets will replicate the original project only if demand is high Using decision tree analysis, estimate the value of the project with the growth option Use a financial option model to estimate the value of the project with the growth option What happens to the value of the growth option if the variance of the project’s return is 14.2 percent? What if it is 50 percent? How might this explain the high valuations of many dotcom companies? Selected Additional References For more information on the derivatives markets, see Chance, Don M., An Introduction to Derivatives (Fort Worth, TX: Dryden Press, 1995) The original Black-Scholes article tested the OPM to see how well predicted prices conformed to market values For additional empirical tests, see Galai, Dan, “Tests of Market Efficiency of the Chicago Board Options Exchange,” Journal of Business, April 1977, 167–197 Gultekin, N Bulent, Richard J Rogalski, and Seha M Tinic, “Option Pricing Model Estimates: Some Empirical Results,” Financial Management, Spring 1982, 58–69 MacBeth, James D., and Larry J Merville, “An Empirical Examination of the Black-Scholes Call Option Pricing Model,” Journal of Finance, December 1979, 1173–1186 Here are some references on real options: Amram, Martha, and Nalin Kulatilaka, Real Options: Managing Strategic Investment in an Uncertain World (Boston, MA: Harvard Business School Press, 1999) Trigeorgis, Lenos, Real Options in Capital Investment: Models, Strategies, and Applications (Westport, CT: Praeger, 1995) Trigeorgis, Lenos, Real Options: Managerial Flexibility and Strategy in Resource Allocation (Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press, 1996) 649
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