vrSN KHOA HOC xA HQI VIBT NAM VIBN KINH TE V A cHiNH TRl THE Gldl BE TAl KHOA HOC cAP BQ a CAI CACH KINH TE DONG A THm KY MUm NAM SAU KHUNG HoANG 1997 Chu nhi¢m tlJ tai: NguySn Binh Giang CAI CACH KINH TE (J f)ONG A THm KY MUm NAM SAU KHUNG HoANG 1997 TOM TAT De t~ti "Cai cach kinh te a Dong A thai kY muai nam sau khung hoang 1997" co m\lc dich tim hiSu xem cac nen kinh te Dong A 10 nam qua dff cai t6 Dang thai, tim hiSu xem cac nu6'c Dong A co dinh huang phat triSn m6'i the mio Tir do, de Uti mu6n rut nhiing ham y chinh sach cho Vi~t Nam b6i canh hi~n DS th\Ic hi~n duQ'c m\lc dich, de t~tid~t m\lc tieu cho minh la tra lai cau hoi sau day: 1) Nguyen nhan chinh nao thuQc ve nen tang kinh te d~n t6'i khung hoang 1997 a Dong A? 2) Nhiing cai cach n6i b~t, cO'ban va chu yeu la gi? 3) V6'i nhiing cai cach do, tinh hinh ph\lc hBi a cac nu6'c diSn the nao? 4) Dau la truang hQ'P cong/thdt b~i cua cai cach? Nguyen nhan khien cho khong cong/thdt b~i la gi? 5) Mo hinh tang truang kinh te cua cac nu6'c Dong A hi~n co gi khac so v6'i tru6'c khung hoang? Cac nu6'c Dong A co ngan ngua duQ'c khling hoang tai diSn? Ph~m vi khong gian cua la Dong A noi chung song trQng tam se la nuac bi fmh huemg n~ng nS nhdt cua cUQckhUng hoang (Thai Lan, Indonesia, Han Qu6c) NQi dung dS tai bao g6m phAn chinh Nguyen nhan khiing hoang va hiu qua Phdn tni lai cau hoi: "Nguyen nhan chinh nao thuQc vS nSn umg kinh tS dful tai khUng hoang 1997 & Dong A?" C\l thS la dS tai trinh bay nguyen nhan chinh thuQc vS nSn tang cua khung hoang nhu la nhiing c~p mau thu~n vS chinh sach kinh tS cua mo hinh Dong A truac 1997 Ngoai ra, phdn ding tom t~t tinh hinh kinh tS truac va sau khUng hoang, nh~m lam nSn cho phdn thu ba - la phdn danh gia tinh hinh h6i ph\lc nha cai cacho Nguyen nhan tu nhitng cpp chinh stich mau thuan Nhiing nguyen nhan chu ySu thuQc vS nSn tang kinh tS cua cac nuac Dong A la sv t6n t~i cua cac c~p chinh sach mau thu~n C~p chinh sach mau thu~n thu nhdt la lqi d\lng v6n ng~n h~ nuac ngoai dS tai trq cho dAu tu dai h~ nuac ma thiSu sv quan ly hi~u qua dong v6n C~p chinh sach mau thuful thu hai la chinh sach tiSn t~ ldy fin dinh tY gia h6i doai, chu khong phai 6n dinh gia ca, lam m\lc tieu va chinh sach tv hoa tai khoan v6n Hai c~p t~o nhUng bdt ch~c kinh tS vi mo, cu6i cung gop phAn gay khung hoang Ngoai ra, c~p thu hai klch thich yay v6n ngfu1h~ nu6c ngoai C~p chinh sach mau thuftn thu ba la t\I hoa (tha long) khu vlJIctai chinh ma khong tang cuemg giam sat tcli chinh C~p chinh sach mau thu~n thu tu la khong giam sat tai chinh nhung l~i tri cac co chS bao hiem ti& gui ngdm C~p chinh sach mau thuftn thu nam la t\I hoa tai chinh nQi diava t\I hoa tai chinh qu6c tS ma khong nang cao nang l\Ic quan tri cong ty c&phdn Cac c~p chinh sach thu ba, tu va nam dftn t6i tinh tr~g riii ro d~o duc tftt ca cac ben chu the kinh tS co lien quan Hp:u qua nilng nJ Tac dQng ctia khung hoang d6i v6i cac nu6c la khac Indon~sia la nu6c bi tac dQng nhi@unhftt b6i khting hoang, tiSp theo la Thai Lan vii Han Qu6c Tac dQng dS nh~ thfty nhftt sau khung hoang la S\I mftt gia nhanh v6i quy mo chua timg co cua ti@nt~ - mQt cUQckhting hoang ti@nte Tao dQng tiSp theo cua khung hoang la S\Irut v6n B ~t cua cac nha ddu tu nu6c ngoai khoi thi truemg chUng khoan, thi truemg tai chinh, ngan hang, keo theb tinh tr~ng thua 16 va pha san v6i t6c dQ va quy mo 100 chua timg co ctia h~ ;th6ng ngan hang cac nu6c - t~o nen mQt cUQc khung hoang ngan hang Kh1ing hoang ti@nt~ lam gia tang khoan ng cua cac doanh nghi~p va lam cho »9 g~p kho khan vi~c thuySt ph\lc cac ngan hang phat hanh L/C cho minh de nh~p khftu ddu vao cho san xuftt Khting hoang ngan hang khiSn cac rloanh nghi~p khong dugc cac ngan hang gHin ng cho niia va t~ han g~p phai tiOOtqmg doi tin d\ll1g H~u qua la cac doanh nghi~p pha san va vo ng hang lo~t, that nghi~p tran lan, ng xau d6i vai ngan hang tang vQt, kiOOtS tang tru6ng ch~m 1~i Tom l~i, khung hoang kiOOtS diSn hiOO dii xay nuac Dong A a mQt s6 va mQt s6 khac thi giam tang tru6ng kiOO tS va xuat khAu Nhfrng bat 6n diOOchiOOtri va xii hQi nghiem trQng xay khiSn cho cong cUQccai cach a nuac a Indonesia g~p rat OOiSukh6 khan Cae eai each ehii y~u PhAn tra lai cau hoi: "Nhtmg cai cach n6i b~t, co ban va chu ySu Dong A a thai kY 10 nam sau khung hoang la gi?" PhAn l~i g6m hai phAn 000, mQt phAn vS OOtmgchiOOsach dugc quan sat thay la dugc tiSn hanh a tat ca ho~c hAu hSt cac nuac bi tac dQng m~ cua khung hoang PhAn nho l~i giai thi~u mQt s6 chiOOsach ca bi~t dugc ap d\U1ga nuac ma khong thay dugc ap d\mg a nuac khac Ciii each khu v(tc tai chinh Sau OOfrng bi~n phap cAp Clm cac t6 chuc tai chiOO hiC mai xay khung hoang, cac nuac Dong A b~t dAu thiSt kS cac chuang triOOcai cach tai chinh/tai kiSn thiSt h~ th6ng tai chiOOtheo khuySn nghi cua IMP/World Bank Cac chuang triOOnay t~p trung vao m\lc tieu chiOOla cung c6 h~ th6ng giam sat tai chiOOva ph\lc h6i kha nang tra ng va nang hrc thaOO khoan Cac bi~n phap ph\lc h6i kha nang tra ng va nang Ivc khoan duQ'c ap d\ll1g cho khu vgc ngan hang la chu y@u Phat triin h¢ th6ng giam sat tai chinh Sau khung hoang 1997, cac nu6'c khu V\lC,d~c bi~t la cac nu6'c bi khung hoang, dSu da va dang ti@nhanh cai cach h~ thBng gifun sat tai chinh cua minh theo huang: a) nang cao nang l\lC giam sat; va b) tang cuang tinh dQc l~p cua co quan chuc nang Nang cao nang Ivc giam sat tai chinh bao gBm cac bi~n phap: Cling cB cong tac phan lo~i tai san; Yeu cau cac t6 chuc tai chinh ap d\lng cac tieu chuAn k@toan m6'i vS d\l trir phong IB cho vay; Yeu cau vS tY 1~du vBn; Yeu cau nang cao nang 19c phan irng nhanh vS vBn va nii fO; Xay dvng tieu chuAn vS ng qua h~n va cac chi sB canh bao s6m; Cling cB h~ thBng quan ly nii fO Tang cuang tinh dQc l~p cua co quan chuc nang bao gBm cac bi~n phap: Sua d6i khung phap ly lien quan; Cling cB co quan hfiu tfach vS gifun sat tai chinh; Sua d6i nhfmg quy dinh lien quan t6'i thu t\lC pha san, xu ly vi~c dong cua va phat mai cac t6 chuc tai chinh; Dua vao ap d\lng cac quy trinh giam sat dga theo nii fO, gifun sat t~i chB H~ thBng giam sat tich hgp (t~p trung) dugc nhiSu nu6'c ap d\lng Gidi quy€t tinh tr(;mgn(J a9ng Giai quy@ttinh tr~g ng d9ng bao gBm ng qua h~ (cac ngan hang cho vay va kho thu hBi dung h~n - non-performing loan) va ng xdu (ng ma ngan hang khong co cach nao thu h6i - bad debt) cua cac t6 chuc tai chinh, nhAt la ngan hang, la bi~n phap trQng tam cac bi~n phap khoi ph\lc ho~t dQng cua cac t6 chuc tai chinh va tinh khoan cua nc3nkinh tB Bi~n phap ghii quyBt la: Thanh l~p cong ty quan ly nq va tai san cua nha nuac de mua l~i cac khoi!mnq qua h~ cua cac t6 chuc tai chinh Tai cAp vim cho cac t6 chuc tai chinh Thanh l~p co quan chinh phu chuyen tnich vc3tai cAp van Muan duqc tai cAp van, cac t6 chuc tai chinh dc3u phiii dap trng cac doi h6i cua co quan hfru trach vc3tai cAp van ThuOng thi nhfrng doi h6i la ap d\lng mQt cach nghiem ng~t cac quy dinh vc3kB toan, vc3muc dv tm va ty 1~du van, phiii co mQt chuang trinh ciii cach th6a dang va thvc hi~n dung thai h~n quy dinh T~o thu~ lqi cho mua l~i va sap nh~p giua cac t6 chuc tai chinh bao g6m cii cho phep nuac ngoai mua l~i t6 chuc tai chinh nuac Cai cach chi a9 bao hi€m tiJn girl Chuyen tir chB dQ biio hiem tic3ngiri An sang chB dQ biio hiem tic3ngiri cong khai Ban ddu biio hiem toan bQ gac va !iii tic3ngiri Sau khiing hoang da qua giai do~ nghiem trQng, de th~t ch~t tai chinh va giiim thieu tinh tr~g nii ro d~o duc, cac nuac da chuyen sang chB dQ biio hi em mQt phdn tic3ngiri B6ng thai, nghien dang duqc ap d\lng CUll xay d\lllg mQt mo hinh biio hiSm tic3ngiri hi~n d~i kiSu a cac nuac tien tiBn Clii each phudng thuc qulin tr; cong ty cJ phan Hai d~c trung chung n6i b~t ooAt hi l~p hQi dang quan tri dQc l~p v6i S\I tham gia cua cac quan tri vien tu ngoai cong ty va l~p ban giam sat hQi dang quan trio Cac d~c trung khac cua cai cach phuong thuc quan tri cong ty a Dong Ala: bao v~ quySn 19i cua c6 dong 006 (c6 dong phan tan), cung c6 quy chS vS cong khai va miOOb~ch, sua d6i chS dQ kS toan (d~c bi~t la c6 gfutg ap d\lng cac tieu chufut kS toan qu6c tS Bi~n phap C\l the de tiSn hanh cai cach la: vua sua d6i lu~t dB ep cai cach, vua huang dan cai cach, vua khuySn khich bfulg cac bi~n phap OOu danh gia xSp h~ng, khen thuang; ban hanh m6i va sua d6i cac quy chS cho uy ban chUng khoan, sa giao dich chUng khoan va niem ySt chUng khoan; va ban hanh bQ nguyen t~c/tieu chuan quan tri cong ty co tham khao cac nguyen t~c cua cac nu6c tien tiSn, ooAt la nguyen t~c GECD ban hanh BJi mm phudng thuc qulin Ij kinh ti vi mo Chinh sach tiJn t? KiSm chS l~m phat va 6n diOOgia ca la uu tien hang dfiu cua cac nu6c Dong A sau khung hoang DiSu da:thoi thuc nhiSu nu6c khu V\ICap d\lng chinh sach m\lc tieu l~m phat Tuy OOienchiSn lugc co the gop phfin dftn t6i t6c d9 tang truang kiOOtS 6n diOOOOung khong cao a cac nu6c Day Co chi tY gia h8i aoai Tru6c khung hoang, cac nu6c Dong A (tm Nh~t Ban) timg ap d\Ulg cO' ch@ty gia neo danh nghia ho~c thvc t@vao dollar My Duang 16i dff duQ'c cong nh~ la mQt nguyen nhan dful t6i khling hoang 1997 Trong khling hoang, cO'ch@tY gia neo dff bi bffi b6 va tien t~ cua cac nu6c duQ'c tha n6i tv Sau khung hoang, cac nu6c Dong A deu thay d8i cO' chS tY gia h6i doai theo huang tv han Song dff co sv dieu chinh d8 kh~c ph\lc vi~c tha n6i qua tv hlc khung hoang va sau khling hoang Cac bi~n phap can thi~p la nhUng bi~n phap chinh d8 cho nu6c deu ca g~ng lam cho tY gia tY gia hai kh6i biSn dQng m~nh Va d~c bi~t, cac doai thvc tS cua minh barn sat tY gia PPP Quem If cac dong v8n B~t chfip vi~c tv hoa mi khoan van qua nhanh la mQt nhUng nguyen nhan dful t6i khling hoang 1997, cac nu6c Dong A tiSp t\lC chinh sach sau b6i Ie hQ cAn ngu