INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY World Energy and Environmental Outlook to 2030 Dr Fatih Birol Chief Economist Head, Economic Analysis Division Global Energy and Environmental Trends - Reference Scenario - World Primary Energy Demand 000 000 Oil Mtoe 000 Natural gas 000 000 Coal 000 Other renewables Nuclear power Hydro power 000 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Fossil fuels account for almost 90% of the growth in energy demand between now and 2030 Increase in World Primary Energy Production by Region 000 share of total increase (%) 85% 000 Mtoe 000 59% 000 000 31% 000 10% 12% 3% 1971-2002 OECD Transition economies 2002-2030 Developing countries Almost all the increase in production to 2030 occurs outside the OECD Per Capita Primary Energy Use, 2030 Per capita energy use remains much lower in developing countries Electricity Deprivation In 2030, if no major new policies are implemented, there will still be 1.4 billion people without electricity World Energy-Related CO2 Emissions Global emissions grow 62% between 2002 & 2030, and developing countries’ emissions will overtake OECD’s in the 2020s CO2 Emissions by Sector, 1990-2030 18 000 million tonnes of CO 16 000 14 000 12 000 10 000 000 000 000 000 1990 Power Generation 2002 2010 Other Transformation 2020 Industry Transport 2030 Other Sectors CO2 emissions in power generation and transport are expected to increase the most Growth in World Energy Demand and CO2 Emissions average annual growth rate 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 1971-2002 Primary energy demand 2002-2030 CO2 Emissions Average carbon content of primary energy increases slightly through 2030 – in contrast to past trends World Alternative Policy Scenario World Alternative Policy Scenario  Analyses impact of new environmental & energysecurity policies worldwide  OECD: Policies currently under consideration  Non-OECD: Also includes more rapid declines in energy intensity resulting from faster deployment of moreefficient technology  Impact on energy, CO2 emissions & investment needs  Basic macroeconomic & population assumptions as for Reference Scenario, but energy prices change Reduction in World Oil Demand in the Alternative vs Reference Scenario, 2030 Power generation 8% Other 4% Residential and services 11% Industry 13% Transport 64% Oil savings = 12.8 mb/d Oil savings in 2030 would be equivalent to the combined current production of Saudi Arabia, UAE and Nigeria Net Natural Gas Imports, 2030 600 bcm 400 200 OECD North America OECD Europe Reference Scenario OECD Asia China Alternative Scenario Net gas imports are lower in all major importing regions, except China OECD CO2 Emissions in the Reference and Alternative Scenarios 16 000 Mt of CO 15 000 14 000 13 000 12 000 11 000 1990 2000 Reference Scenario 2010 2020 2030 Alternative Scenario OECD CO2 emissions peak around 2020 – 25% higher than in 1990 Contributory Factors in CO2 Reduction 2002-2030 100% 5% 10% 80% 60% 20% 4% 8% 12% 21% 21% 5% 17% 15% 7% 1% 7% 10% 40% 58% 20% 63% 67% Transition economies Developing countries 49% 0% World OECD End-use efficiency gains Fuel switching in end uses Increased renewables in power generation Increased nuclear in power generation Changes in the fossil-fuel mix in power generation Improvements in end-use efficiency contribute for more than half of decrease in emissions, and renewables use for 20% Difference in Electricity Investment in the Alternative vs Reference Scenario 2003-2030 000 billion dollars (2000) 500 Efficiency measures - 500 -1 000 Additional demand-side investment Avoided supply-side investment Difference Generation Transmission Distribution -1 500 -2 000 Additional investments on the demand side are more than offset by lower investment on the supply side Summary & Conclusions  On current policies, world energy needs – and CO2 emissions – will be 60% higher in 2030 than now  Policies under consideration & faster deployment of technology could substantially save energy and reduce emissions  Larger capital needs on the demand side would be entirely offset by lower investment needs on the supply side  Truly sustainable energy system will call for faster technology development & deployment  Urgent & decisive government action is needed [...].. .World Alternative Policy Scenario  Analyses impact of new environmental & energysecurity policies worldwide  OECD: Policies currently under consideration  Non-OECD: Also includes more rapid declines in energy intensity resulting from faster deployment... deployment of moreefficient technology  Impact on energy, CO2 emissions & investment needs  Basic macroeconomic & population assumptions as for Reference Scenario, but energy prices change Reduction in World Oil Demand in the Alternative vs Reference Scenario, 2030 Power generation 8% Other 4% Residential and services 11% Industry 13% Transport 64% Oil savings = 12.8 mb/d Oil savings in 2030 would be... higher than in 1990 Contributory Factors in CO2 Reduction 2002-2030 100% 5% 10% 80% 60% 20% 4% 8% 12% 21% 21% 5% 17% 15% 7% 1% 7% 10% 40% 58% 20% 63% 67% Transition economies Developing countries 49% 0% World OECD End-use efficiency gains Fuel switching in end uses Increased renewables in power generation Increased nuclear in power generation Changes in the fossil-fuel mix in power generation Improvements... Difference Generation Transmission Distribution -1 500 -2 000 Additional investments on the demand side are more than offset by lower investment on the supply side Summary & Conclusions  On current policies, world energy needs – and CO2 emissions – will be 60% higher in 2030 than now  Policies under consideration & faster deployment of technology could substantially save energy and reduce emissions  Larger