Impacts of Climate Change on Biodiversity We are altering the system Variations of the Earth‟s surface temperature over the past 1,000 years (IPCC, 2001) 14.5 Observed changes 14.0 13.5 1850 1900 1950 Year AOGCM predictions Global surface warming (ºC) Temperature (ºC) IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007) 2000 A2 A1B B1 com -1 1900 2000 Year 2100 Potential pathways of biodiversity impacts from climate change Effects on distributions Effects on abundance Effects on phenology Evolutionary adaptation Effects on physiology Changes to species interactions Further effects on distributions and abundance Extinction of some species Changes in ecological communities (adapted from Hughes 2000, TREE) (Foden et al., 2008) Relative effect of major drivers of changes on biodiversity (Sala et al 2000, Science) Is a climate change signal already apparent? Phenological changes: E.g UK birds are laying eggs earlier (Crick et al 1997, Nature) a, corn bunting; b, chiffchaff; c, magpie Bird phenology and asynchrony with food supply: Geese not able to acquire adequate body stores quickly enough to breed before the quality of food for their young decreased Van Der Jeugd et al 2009 Bird phenology and asynchrony with food supply: Pied flycatcher www.luontoportti.com www.progressive-charlestown.com Winter moth caterpillar Populations of pied flycatchers in some areas in Europe declined up to 90% because chicks did not have enough food Visser et al (2006) Is a climate change signal already apparent? Abundance changes: E.g Increasing shrub abundance in the Arctic (Sturm et al 2001, Nature) But… what can we predict with confidence? • We have a fair idea of general patterns and trends that can be expected over the next century, including: – upslope and poleward distribution shifts – changes in phenology and abundance – extinction • However, the magnitude of future impacts of climate change on biodiversity remains difficult to predict Vulnerable species • Specialized habitat and/or microhabitat requirements • Narrow environmental tolerances or thresholds that are likely to be exceeded due to climate change at any stage of life cycle • Dependence on specific environmental triggers or cues that are likely to be disrupted by climate change • Dependence on interspecific interactions which are likely to be disrupted by climate change • Poor ability or limited opportunity to disperse to or colonize a new or more suitable range Climate Change in Vietnam Rising temperature in Vietnam -Over the last 50 years, the annual average temperature in Vietnam has increase about 0.50.7 Degree Celsius - Winter temperature increases faster than those of summer - Northern climate zones increase faster than those of southern ones Source: MONRE, 2009 Climate change scenarios in Vietnam Source: MONRE, 2009 Sea level rise compared to 1980-1999 Impacts of sea level rise on east Asian countries Source; Dasgupta et al., 2007 Climate change scenarios in Vietnam - About half (1.4 million hectares) of the Mekong Delta‟s agriculture lands might be inundated by the end of the century - A quarter of Ho Chi Minh City, home to more than six millions, would be under water Source: MONRE, 2009 Frequency of extreme weather events Source: ICEM, 2008 Source: Vietnam News - Rate and severity of EWE have increased over the last decades, and might go beyond ecosystem resilience in many areas in the country in the future - Urban communities are susceptible to impacts of climate change, especially due to conversion of wetland, which results in loss of key ecosystem services, e.g., water retention Impacts of CC on human health Source: Patz et al., 2000 Impacts of CC on the economy - Climate change is expected to cause significant impacts on the Greater Mekong Region‟s agriculture productivity - In Vietnam, Mekong Delta produces about half of Vietnam‟s rice volume, 60% of fish and shrimp production, and 80% of fruit crops Source: WWF, 2009 Impacts of CC on the economy - Inland fisheries are expected to be vulnerable to changes in hydrology and water chemistry induced by impacts of climate change - Rising sea level, more severe storms, and salt water intrusion in the deltas will likely adversely affect the aquaculture industry Challenges in Vietnam • Vietnam is one of the countries most vulnerable to impacts of climate change (Dasgupta et al., 2009) • Human migration from lowland to upland areas as a result of climate change can have immense impacts on biodiversity • Impacts of climate change in combination with existing conservation problems will likely exert profound changes to biodiversity and ecosystem services Sea level rise and protected areas Source: ICEM, 2008 Challenges in Vietnam • Habitat fragmentation makes it difficult to design biological corridors for species dispersal in the context of climate change • Complicated landuse changes associated with human movement provide limited options for conservation planning, e.g., redesigning protected area network to accommodate species movements Source: ICEM, 2008 Conclusions • Climate change has had a discernable affect on plant and animal populations in recent decades • Human-induced climate change is expected to be more rapid and of greater magnitude than has been experienced over the last 10,000 years Combined with other factors, including habitat destruction, climate change can be expected to have an important impact on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning over the coming century • Climate change therefore raises important challenges for conservation [...]... impacts of climate change - Rising sea level, more severe storms, and salt water intrusion in the deltas will likely adversely affect the aquaculture industry Challenges in Vietnam • Vietnam is one of the countries most vulnerable to impacts of climate change (Dasgupta et al., 2009) • Human migration from lowland to upland areas as a result of climate change can have immense impacts on biodiversity. .. confidence? • We have a fair idea of general patterns and trends that can be expected over the next century, including: – upslope and poleward distribution shifts – changes in phenology and abundance – extinction • However, the magnitude of future impacts of climate change on biodiversity remains difficult to predict Vulnerable species • Specialized habitat and/ or microhabitat requirements • Narrow environmental... likely to be exceeded due to climate change at any stage of life cycle • Dependence on specific environmental triggers or cues that are likely to be disrupted by climate change • Dependence on interspecific interactions which are likely to be disrupted by climate change • Poor ability or limited opportunity to disperse to or colonize a new or more suitable range Climate Change in Vietnam Rising temperature... Forest at 2600m Phelsuma lineata Rocky outcrops and heathland at 2750m NASA MODIS (Raxworthy et al 2008 Global Change Biology) Elevational displacement of distribution midpoint between 1993 and 2003 for 30 species of reptiles and amphibians surveyed at Tsaratanana (Raxworthy et al 2008 Global Change Biology) Mean displacement = 65m upslope (p