Trờng Đại học H Nội KHOA QUN TR KINH DOANH – DU LỊCH - - Th¸ng 2010 Hội nghị khoa học Sinh viên Khoa Quản trị kinh doanh - Du lịch Tháng - 2010 MỤC LỤC AN EXPLORATORY RESEARCH INTO WALKING TOUR DEVELOPMENT IN HANOI Written by: Nghiem Truong Son (3K-08), Tran Thu Phuong (4K-07) Luu Thi Hoang Oanh, Bui Phan Phuong Thao, Nguyen Thi Thu (2D-07) Supervisor: Nguyen Duc Hoa Cuong ROLE OF AUDIT IN VIETNAM 18 Written by: Pham Quynh Anh, Nguyen Thi Thu Phuong (1KT-08) Nguyen Thi Lien, Le Thi Huyen Trang (2KT-08) Vu Thi Ngoc (3KT-08), Dang Anh Thu (1KT-08) Supervisor: Chu Huy Anh MANAGEMENT ACCOUNTING: FRAMEWORK AND PRACTICES IN VIETNAM CASE STUDY:NATEXCO 30 Written by: Tran Hong Nhung, Nguyen Thi Hoai Thu (1KT -07) Tran Duy Nam, Vu Phuong Thao, Bui Thi Hai Yen (2KT -07) Supervisor: Do Van Anh ACCOUNTING FOR FIXED ASSETS 42 Written by: Nguyen Thi Ha, Hoang Thu Hang Bui Thi Minh Hoat, Le Thi Kim, Dinh Thi Thoi Supervisor: Dinh Le Mai SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH PAPER REPOS CONTRACTS: LAW AND APPLICATIONS IN VIETNAM 70 Written by: Nguyen Hong Hanh Tran Viet Kien, Nguyen Thi Quyen Supervisor: Nguyen Quynh Anh DANCE WITH VIETNAM INFLATION 2005-2010 84 Written by: Nghiem Truong Son, Pham Thanh Cong (BA-08) Le Bich Thuy (AC-07), Bui Thu Van (BA-07) Supervisor: Pham Thi Hoa Nhai COUNTRY RISK ANALYSIS IN VIETNAM 98 Written by: Nguyen Thi Dieu Tuyet (3TC07), Nguyen Van Trang (2TC07) Nguyen Thi Bich Phuong (3TC07), Luong Thu Huong (3TC07) Supervisor: Nguyen Thu Huong THE IMPORTANCE OF PHYSICAL EVIDENCE IN SEVICES ORGANIZATION 120 Written by: Le Tuyet Lan, Thieu Thi Thuy Linh (BA08) Luu Dieu Linh, Nguyen Thanh Huyen (BA08) Supervisor: Tran Tuan Anh MARKETING AFTER CRISIS 135 Supervisor: Ngo Phuong Dung Written by: Nguyen Thi Thu, Nguyen Thi Hoa (TR-06) Vu Thi Thin, Hoang Thi Thanh Huyen, Do Thi Phuong (TR-06) Héi nghÞ khoa học Sinh viên Khoa Quản trị kinh doanh - Du lịch Tháng - 2010 10 COUNTRY RISK ANALYSIS IN VIETNAM 169 Written by: Dang Thu Trang, Nguyen Thi My Hanh (3K-07) Tran Thi Quynh Trang (3K-07), Phung Thi Anh (2K-07) Supervisor: Nguyen Thu Huong 11 GAP BETWEEN ORDINANCE AND SMALL-SCALE RETAILERS’ MANAGEMENT ON FOOD HYGIENE AND SAFETY 196 Written by: Nguyen Thi Thanh Huong (3K-08) Hoang Thu Ha (CN2-08), Nguyen Thi Thuy (2KT-07) Supervisor: Nguyen Thi Cuc 12 The development of Standby Credit and its application in Vietnam 209 Written by: Le Thi Thu Huong, Nguyen Thi Thanh Nga Nguyen Thi Ha Nhung, Nguyen Phuong Van Supervisor: Phan Thi Kim Ngan 13 BILL OF LADING AND ENDORSEMENT PROCESS 225 Written by: Nguyen Van Anh (FB-07) Kieu Thi Thu Hang, Nguyen Le Quyen (FB-07) Supervisor: Phan Thi Kim Ngan 14 EFFECTIVENESS OF INNOVATIVE TRAINING 240 Written by: Do Duc Thu (4K -07) Duong Hong Hanh, Nguyen Hai Yen (1D-07) Supervisor: Nguyen Le Phuong Tram 15 ANALYSIS OF THE DEPENDENCE OF TOURISM REVENUE ON THE NUMBER OF VISITORS, INVESTMENT, CPI 256 Written by: Hoang Thi Hue, Ngo Van Lung (TR-08) Supervisor: PhD DAO Thanh Binh 16 THE FACTORS AFFECTING STATISTICS FINAL RESULTS OF FMT STUDENTS 268 Written by: Pham Viet Dung, Luu Dieu Linh (BA-08) Nguyen Thi Dung (BA-08) Supervisor: PhD Dao Thanh Binh Héi nghÞ khoa häc Sinh viên Khoa Quản trị kinh doanh - Du lịch Th¸ng - 2010 AN EXPLORATORY RESEARCH INTO WALKING TOUR DEVELOPMENT IN HANOI Written by: Nghiem Truong Son (3K-08), Tran Thu Phuong (4K-07), Luu Thi Hoang Oanh, Bui Phan Phuong Thao, Nguyen Thi Thu (2D-07) Supervisor: Nguyen Duc Hoa Cuong ABSTRACT This paper aims to analyze the potentiality of walking tour in Hanoi and find out problems which is needed to improve for further development of walking tour in Hanoi Basing on both primary and secondary method, the information collected through real experiences of tourists in Hanoi and tourist information center (HaproTic) which are conducted through interview and observe We also gathered some information about traffic, transportations and attractions in the internet through reliable sources From those, we can conclude that I INTRODUCTION Being well-known as a City of Peace and ranked the sixth in top ten most attractive cities in Asia according to Travel and Leisure magazine of the US in 2007, is one the of top ten best shopping cities in Asia, of top ten best city for leisure in Asia by online tourism magazine Smart Travel Asia (2009), Hanoi, a thousand year city, is likely to be an ideal destination for tourists from all over the world Looking at many neighbor countries such as Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia which have utilized Tourism as an engine to boost their economies, Vietnam generally and Hanoi particularly must take action to make tourism become a key industry soon Besides many popular types of traveling such as cycling tour, in-seat coaching tour, walking tour could be a trend to develop in Hanoi because Hanoi has many potentials to nurture it Thus, this paper focus on analyzing some aspects of Hanoi ranging from attractions, transportation, information system… to find out problems which is needed to improve to develop walking tour and also give some recommendations and potential walking tours for further development II LITERATURE REVIEW The walking tour concept Nowadays, tourism is defined by most of the countries as the chief industry to develop economy because tourism has become a popular global leisure activity However to meet the demand of all the customers, tour operators have to create a wide range types of tours in term of tour styles (luxury tours, budget tour) or tour activity types (adventure tours, eco-tours…) and another type of tour which depends on transportation options such as motor coach tours, train tours, bicycling tours… Among them walking tours has become a popular trend for many tourists Walking tour may refer to either a multi-day trip or a full day or partial day trip of one or more destinations -3- Hội nghị khoa học Sinh viên Khoa Quản trị kinh doanh - Du lịch Tháng - 2010 where the primary method of transportation is walking Walking tour can be led by a tour guide or be self-guided Your tour will probably involves a morning walk with sightseeing stops, lunch, a longer afternoon walk and dinner (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walking_tour) Commonly, walking tours take place when distance between destinations is not too long and accessibility for walking tourists is somewhat convenient By participating in walking tour, tourist can take advantage of seeing destinations in great detail and also saving a large expenditure for transportation Typical walks in major cities ™ The Classic Walk in Paris (http://classicwalksparis.com/paris/tours/classic-walk) Duration: 3.5 hours Distance: miles or 6.4 km The Classic Walk offers a whole overview of Paris Virtually most of major sites in the city center are covered: - The Eiffel Tower: the symbol of Paris - Notre Dame: the most famous cathedral in the world - Napoléon’s Tomb: the resting place of the most famous Frenchman in history - Louvre Museum: one of the grandest museum in the world, include the most famous works: Mona Lisa, Venus de Milo… - Musee D’ Orsay: the museum hosts a world-class collection of Impressionists paintings - Tuileries Garden: Former Royal Garden in the middle of the city - Champs- Elysees: the most famous avenues in the world Its sidewalk are lined with café, cinemas, 5-star hotels and shops ™ The French Revolution Walk (http://classicwalksparis.com/paris/tours/frenchrevolution-walk) Duration: hours Distance: 2.3 miles or 3.7 km The French Revolution Walk will enlighten you to the significance of one of the most important events in modern history Revive the troubled period leading up to some famous events in France ™ Fashion walking tour (http://www.paris-walks.com/crbst_6.html) Duration: hours The tour is conducted by the fashion specialists; it is an enjoyable mixture of history, anecdotes, and trivia associated with fashion The tour guide will show you both famous names and introduce you some lesser treasures You also can go inside the shops and purchase what you want ™ Vatican walking tour (http://www.enjoyrome.com/walking/vatican.html) Duration: hours -4- Héi nghÞ khoa häc Sinh viên Khoa Quản trị kinh doanh - Du lịch Tháng - 2010 The Vatican is one of the most famous interesting and breathtaking beautiful sites in the world The tour will take you to some major attractions as well as some lesser known spots, and provide you a broad base for understanding the history, architecture, and politics of the Vatican The highlights of the tour include: - Vatican Museums - Sistine Chapel - St Peter’s Basilica ™ Ancient and Old Rome walking tour (http://www.enjoyrome.com/walking/ancient.html) Duration: hours The tour covers all the well known sites of ancient and old Rome including: - Colosseum (interior visit) - Roman Forum (interior visit) - Capitoline Hill - Trevi Fountain - Pantheon (interior visit) - Piazza Navona Hanoi with walking tour ™ Hanoi – A legendary city with significant collections of major cultural and historical attractions Hanoi – the beautiful capital of Vietnam strategically lies at the center of the triangular basin of the Red River It original named Thang Long (City of the Ascending Dragon) and was first the capital of Vietnam in A.D.1010 With the 1000 years history and culture and the topography of many lakes and rivers, Hanoi have many attractions both cultural, historic and natural ones And it is very potential for walking tour because most of these attractions were located closed to others It means that tourists can visit these attractions by their feet instead of other kinds of transport ƒ Mentioned about Hanoi, we can not forget many rich historic attractions such as Hanoi Old Quarter, Temple of Literature, Ba Dinh Quarter, Flag Tower, Ho Chi Minh Mausoleum… Van Mieu – Quoc Tu Giam is a famous historical and cultural relic consisting of the Temple of Literature and Vietnam’s first University The Temple of Literature was built in 1070 in honour of Confucius, his followers, and Chu Van An, a moral figure in Vietnamese education Quoc Tu Giam, or Vietnam’s first university, was built in 1076 It was the first educational school for royal family members, and it was later opened to talented students The site preserves historical vestiges of a 1000 years old civilization such as status of Confucius and his disciples, and ancient construction such as Khue Van Pavillion, and Worshipping Hall -5- Héi nghị khoa học Sinh viên Khoa Quản trị kinh doanh - Du lịch Tháng - 2010 Another attraction which is also very familiar and attractive with tourists who come to Hanoi is Hanoi Old Quarter It is a unique antique quarter which represents eternal soul of the city In Hanoi Old Quarter, beside traditional buildings, there are cultural, historic and religious buildings and traditional restaurants Nowadays, the Old Quarter still maintains Vietnamese and Asian architecture and creates a complexity of unique architecture Two examples of cultural and historic buildings which still remained are 87, Ma May Street (built in XIX century with old traditional architecture) and 38, Hang Dao Street (original was communal house built in XVII, now has combination of traditional and modern architecture) Now, in Hanoi Old Quarter, there are walking streets and night markets which were established to promote walking tour ƒ Being a long-standing urban area, Hanoi is also very well-known with its religious attractions like Quan Su temple, Tran Quoc pagoda, One-Pillar pagoda… Quan Su Temple was built in the 15th century under the Le dynasty According to Hoang Le Nhat Thong Chi, during Emperor Le The Tong’s seign, the Emperor ordered to construct a building called Quan Su (Embassy) to receive foreign ambassadors to Thang Long Because those ambassadors were all Buddhist, they decided to build a temple on the premises for worship Today only the temple remains In 1934, the General Buddhist Society of Tonkin was founded and choosed as its headquarters One-Pillar Pagoda is a historic Buddhist temple in Hanoi It is regarded alongside the Perfume Pagoda, as one of Vietnam’s two most iconic temples The temple is designed to resemble a lotus blossom, which is Buddhist symbol of purity, since a lotus blossoms in a muddy pond In 1954, The French Union forces destroyed the pagoda before withdrawing from Vietnam after the First Indochina War, it was rebuilt afterwards ƒ Beside those cultural and historic attractions, Hanoi is also proud of its natural attractions which mostly are beautiful lakes and rivers such as West Lake, Sword Lake, Truc Bach Lake, Red River… Sword Lake – the beautiful basket of flowers inside Hanoi, a mirror-like green lake with Ngoc Son Temple, The Huc Bridge, Pen Tower in the surrounding is a part of the Red river Sword Lake used to be called Luc Thuy Lake (or Green Water Lake) since the water was green all the year round In 15th century, it was named Hoan Kiem Lake (Sword Lake) after the legend of Emperor Le Thai To Cuisine of Hanoi is also very attractive It is not only diversified but also simple and sophisticated, for example Thanh Tri Cuon Cake, Pho, Com (green rice), Bun,… And it is considered as a attraction to attract tourists come to Hanoi ™ However, its inner transportation is inappropriate and problematic for designing walking tours It will be difficult for a visitor to enjoy a walking tour in Hanoi without an appropriate transportation system It cannot argue that because this is a walking tour -6- Hội nghị khoa học Sinh viên Khoa Quản trị kinh doanh - Du lịch Tháng - 2010 then feet will be the only one means to travel Besides, a transportation system is developed to add more conveniences for traveler First of all, the most important factor that, in order to walk along a street, is pavement In Hanoi nowadays, many streets have a large and nice pavement not only in using mean but also in the aesthetic mean However, in the streets that almost every visitor to Hanoi will walk in maintain a situation of bad pavement, those are Old Quarters In the survey we have been conducted, many visitors claimed that pavements in Old quarters are very narrow; sometimes they have to walk in the road instead of the pavement The road system in Hanoi is the second significant factor Besides some main roads for instance Trang Thi, Le Dai Hanh, etc which are very huge, streets in the blocks are small and crowded Too many transports circulation around the street make visitors feel terrible and scared In order to travel to the walking streets, travelers need some transports to take them from their hotels or from airport to Hanoi’s center Some will be suggested as taxies, buses, and motor taxies Taxies will be the most useful transport It can be easy to order, able to pick up a number of people, convenience for changing the route if necessary, cheap by international standards and a safe way to travel around at night Average tariffs are about 10,000d per kilometer The bus systems in Hanoi have improved in the past few years but are light years behind Hong Kong and Bangkok and, in general, buses are not a practical way to get around town Even this kind of system is much cheaper but obviously it has more disadvantages than taxies Getting around by motor taxies is easy as long as you don't have a lot of luggage It is not a convenience transport for traveler, because they have to negotiate the price beforehand Beside those transports above, traveler can find cyclo, or hide a motorbike or bicycle to enjoy their moment in Hanoi III RESEARCH METHODOLOGY In order to fulfill this research, two surveys and one observation were conducted in two different days and all data colleted are quantitative The first survey was carried out on May 2010 from 8.45am to 11.30am around Sword Lake in the form of personal interviews One or two researchers interviewed one tourist and took note what he or she said In this survey, 17 tourists, both Vietnamese and foreigners, were randomly chosen to answer various open-end questions ranging from their motivation to travel, their likes and dislikes in Hanoi, their evaluation about Hanoi attractions, transportation, and especially about Walking tour Basing on experiences from many surveys before, the research group decided to hang on a banner with slogan “if you love Hanoi, please tell me” to attract tourist’s attention first, then -7- Hội nghị khoa học Sinh viên Khoa Quản trị kinh doanh - Du lịch Tháng - 2010 asked them to join the survey instead of blocking them on the way and ask for their cooperation Furthermore, everyone who participated in the survey received small gift that is a couple of Vietnamese in traditional dress As a result, the majority of interviewees were people who approached us first due to their curiosity and then expressed their willingness and happiness to take part in the survey Thus, we got very good responses from tourists in this survey On 11 May 2010, the research group divided into two sub-groups to conduct both a survey and an observation simultaneously from 4pm to pm The first sub-group carried out the survey around Sword Lake and in front of Hapro TIC, a free information center in Dinh Tien Hoang street in the purpose of figuring out how tourists evaluate the quality of information system in Hanoi that is one of key factor influencing walking tours Once again, a semi-structure interview with open-end questions was used to collect quantitative data Especially for the tourists who were out of Hapro TIC, besides questions relating to general information system in Hanoi, the research group focused on asking them about their assessment on the quality of information given by this center At the end of each interview, respondents were asked to provide their personal information comprising name, nationality, and email address to make valid references for the research At the same time, another sub-group conducted observation inside Happro Tic center to evaluate attitude and working style of the staff, facilities and design of the center In addition to observing, we also played a role a person who need information about some destinations in Hanoi to have short interview with the staff so as to evaluate the quality of information they provided to tourists Moreover, we also collected many cards and brochures there to appraise effectiveness of these materials Right after each survey and observation, all information collected was entered in database in order to make deep analysis IV FINDINGS Motivation for traveling to Hanoi Although most of tourists interviewed are repeated travelers, only one-third of them have traveled to Hanoi before However, it is hard for first time tourists to Hanoi to answer the question why they want to travel to Vietnam generally and to Hanoi particularly Some stated that they wanted to be here just for relaxation; some other said they would like to discover Vietnamese culture and history through their travel For those who have visited Vietnam several times before, it is Vietnamese culture, history and especially Vietnamese people who are very friendly and hospitable that attract them to come back Hanoi As one Japanese tourist who has been to Vietnam six times and in Hanoi three times revealed, he loved Hanoi Old Quarter atmosphere that was hard to describe by word Meanwhile, another American journalist who has ever traveled to Hanoi seven times tenderly looked at the research group and said “I come back here because of you” Noticeably, no matter what their motivations are, Hanoi Old Quarter, Sword Lake, Ho Chi Minh Mausoleum, West Lake, Temple of Literature, and some -8- Héi nghÞ khoa học Sinh viên Khoa Quản trị kinh doanh - Du lịch Tháng - 2010 Museums where Vietnamese culture and history are deeply reflected are places that they have visited or want to visit the best Likes and dislikes of tourists in Hanoi Among some common activities that tourists often participate in Hanoi, going shopping and enjoying Vietnamese traditional food are favorite ones of many interviewees They love hanging out Hanoi Old Quarter to watch and purchase small handicraft souvenirs such as wooden objects, toys, silk clothes, brocades for themselves, and/or for their families and friends at home Despite the fact that these products are very nice and Vietnamese, it is strongly recommended by one tourist that different shops had better sell different products in order to make shopping experience of tourists more diverse and exciting Further, one respondent showed his wish for watching the hand-made items making process when going shopping in order to learn more about Vietnamese culture in more creative and exciting way This can be a good recommendation for tourism makers to add more value for tourist during their trips In terms of food and beverage, the great majority of tourists asked expressed their preference on traditional Vietnamese dishes; even some gave great praises for authentic Vietnamese food Interestingly, one Japanese tourist could name some well-known Vietnamese food such as pho, spring roll, vermicelli and grilled chopped meat in Vietnamese Besides, it is not surprising that every tourist asked stated that they would like and always come to small family-own shops to enjoy their meals instead of going to luxury restaurants where Vietnamese taste seems to be weaker than the former Attentively, some of them asked showed their good experiences on enjoying food from street vendors like Vietnamese people often In contrast to many foreigners who feel afraid of eating food sold in the street because of hygiene matter, these tourists expressed their willingness to expose to very Vietnamese lifestyle It is quite interesting that one Greek journalist revealed bread with pâté in the street was his favorite breakfast everyday in Hanoi In addition to some quite popular activities that tourists want to take part in during their stay in Hanoi, some respondents who are male journalists and engineer, have special interests in learning more about architecture, particularly French buildings in Hanoi This interest possibly pertains to their jobs and genders Thus, those prefer spending time walking around Hanoi Opera house and its environs to satisfy their like to going shopping in Hanoi Old Quarter or in open markets However, in addition to several compliments on attractiveness of many beauty spots, of Vietnamese culture and history, and friendliness of the local people in Hanoi of tourists, there are some comments on keeping public sanitation in Hanoi because they saw many litters scatter on the ground Therefore, Hanoi would be more beautiful if both everyone is more aware of keeping environment clean and the local authorities implement stricter regulations to rule their behaviors -9- Hội nghị khoa học Sinh viên Khoa Quản trị kinh doanh - Du lịch Tháng - 2010 Conclusion: the investment is statistically significant and is significantly different from zero Test for CPI: Ho: β = H a: β ≠ ∧ t-statistic: t = β4 − β4 ∧ se( β ) = − 1282.5 = −0.6 2190.14 Critical value: tc = t0.05,7 = 1.895 Decision: t sta < t cri => Do not reject Ho Conclusion: The CPI is not statistically significant and is not significantly different from zero 4.1.3 Testing the overall significance of the multiple regression: Now, we consider a joint null hypothesis that all β are jointly or simultaneously equal to zero This test is a test of overall significance of observed or estimated regression line, that means whether the value of tourism revenue is linear related to all the number of visitor, investment, and CPI Ho: All variables are zero effect ( β = β = β = 0) Ha: At least one variable is not zero effect, at least one variable has the effect ( β ≠ 0, β ≠ 0, or β ≠ 0) F-statistic: R /(k − 1) 0.98 /(4 − 1) F= = = 65.33 (1 − R ) /(n − k ) (1 − 0.98) /(8 − 4) F-critical value: Fcα,k-1,n-k = Fc0.05,3,4 = 6.59 Decision: Fsta > Fcri => Reject Ho Conclusion: There is evidence to conclude that there is at least one variable has effect on the tourism revenue 4.1.4 Testing the drop variable in the regression model: From the result of t- test as well as the P- value (P-value of X4 = 0.5896), we can see that CPI (X4) is not statistically significant or have a very small effect on the tourism revenue Consequently, we use this test to find out whether our model be better if we drop the last independent variable (X4) out of the origin model The new model after dropping X4: -261- Hội nghị khoa học Sinh viên Khoa Quản trị kinh doanh - Du lịch ^ Tháng - 2010 ∧ Y = β + β *X2 + β *X3 New Eview table: Dependent Variable: Y Method: Least Squares Date: 05/18/10 Time: 14:39 Sample: 2000 2007 Included observations: Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob C -4664.058 1028.832 -4.533352 0.0062 X2 0.338058 0.067459 5.011308 0.0041 X3 1.193937 0.230139 5.187886 0.0035 R-squared 0.984468 Mean dependent var 11133.99 Adjusted R-squared 0.978255 S.D dependent var 5520.925 S.E of regression 814.1280 Akaike info criterion 16.52211 Sum squared resid 3314022 Schwarz criterion 16.55190 Log likelihood -63.08843 F-statistic 158.4557 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000030 Durbin-Watson stat 2.744549 New model: ^Y= - 4664.058 + 0.34*X2 + 1.19*X3 ∧ Ho: β =0 ∧ H a: β ≠ F-statistic: F= ( R new − R old ) /# drop (0.984468 − 0.985694 ) / = = −0.395 (1 − 0.984468 ) /(8 − 3) (1 − R new ) /( n − k ) F-critical: Fcα,k-1,n-k = Fc0.05,1,5 = 6.61 Decision: Fsta < Fcri => Do not reject Ho Conclusion: There is evidence to conclude that X4 (CPI) is not relevant to drop out of our model -262- Héi nghị khoa học Sinh viên Khoa Quản trị kinh doanh - Du lịch Tháng - 2010 4.2 Violations 4.2.1 Multicollinerity Dependent Variable: Y Method: Least Squares Date: 01/01/06 Time: 03:18 Sample: 2000 2007 Included observations: Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob C X2 X3 X4 122850.1 0.384061 1.210804 -1282.461 217767.0 0.106824 0.248612 2190.142 0.564136 3.595266 4.870259 -0.585561 0.6028 0.0229 0.0082 0.5896 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat 0.985694 0.974965 873.5519 3052371 -62.75946 2.754617 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 11133.99 5520.925 16.68986 16.72959 91.86822 0.000382 Y ∧ = 122850.1 + 0.384061X2 + 1.210804X3 – 1282.461X4 Using Eviews software, we want to check whether the multicollinearity exists in our model or not In another word, we want to find out the relationship among independent variables From then, the solution to address this problem will be given in order to help us have better model with more reliable statistics Imperfect multicollinearity cause some consequences:From the model R2= 0.985694 very high t stat = 0.564136 & t stat = -0.585561 is not significant Multicollinearity may be exist -263- Hội nghị khoa học Sinh viên Khoa Quản trị kinh doanh - Du lịch Tháng - 2010 Auxiliary regression Dependent Variable: X2 Method: Least Squares Date: 01/01/06 Time: 00:50 Sample: 2000 2007 Included observations: Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob C X3 X4 -1494685 1.110948 15078.23 619940.3 0.914562 6212.759 -2.411014 1.214732 2.426978 0.0608 0.2787 0.0596 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat 0.861659 0.806322 3657.079 66871135 -75.10685 1.556388 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) ^ Y = 122850.1 + 0.384061X2 + 1.210804X3 – 1282.461X4 ^ X = -1494685 + 1.110948X3 + 15078.23X4 ™ Ho: multicollinearity doesn’t exist Ha: Ho is false ™ From the model, we have R '2 = 0.861659 ™ Compute F statistic: ≈ F (1 − R' ) / n − k 0.861659 / − F stat = ≈ F = 15.57125 (1 − 0.861659) / − Choose α = 0.05 F c (k-1; n-k) = F c (0.05,3,6) = 4.76 Compare: F stat > F c ƒ ™ ™ ™ ™ F-stat = R' / k − Reject Ho -264- 26338.55 8309.875 19.52671 19.55650 15.57125 0.007118 Hội nghị khoa học Sinh viên Khoa Quản trị kinh doanh - Du lịch Tháng - 2010 There is enough evidence to conclude that multicollinearity exist in the model Remedical measure: From the problem above, we need to give remedial method to correct the problem and make our model better The best way here is dropping one variable from the model We choose CPI variable to drop it because it has no statistical significance on tourism revenue After dropping it, we see that R2 falls from 0.985694 to 0.984468 It is still high and shows the goodness of fit in our model Furthermore, t- statistics are more statistical significance in the model Using this method, it is clear that our model becomes more accurate and significant Final model: ^Y= - 4664.058 + 0.34*X2 + 1.19*X3 Interpretation for the final model Final model: ^Y= - 4664.058 + 0.34*X2 + 1.19*X3 ∧ β = -4664.058 is the intercept of the line, which indicates that Tourism revenue will be 122850 billion VND on average when the number of visitors and investment and CPI are equal to zero It has no economic meaning because they are never equal to zero ∧ β = 0.34 is the slope of the line which shows that tourism revenue will increase by 0.384 billion VND on average when the number of visitors increases by thousand, holding other independent variables constant ∧ β = 1.19 means that the tourism revenue will be higher by 1.19 billion VND on average when the investment rises by billion, holding other independent variables constant 4.2.2 Heteroscedasticity Heterosedasticity is the problem of violating the assumption about variance of error terms The existence of heteroscedasticity means that the variance of ui is not constant for all the observations To see whether this problem exists in our model, we use the White‘s general heteroscedasticity test without cross term: Ho: homoscedasticity Var (ui) = H1: heteroscedasticity Var (ui) = i White Heteroscedasticity Test: F-statistic Obs*R-squared 0.293521 Probability 5.102631 Probability Test Equation: Dependent Variable: RESID^2 Method: Least Squares Date: 01/01/06 Time: 03:16 Sample: 2000 2007 Included observations: -265- 0.885543 0.530719 Héi nghÞ khoa häc Sinh viên Khoa Quản trị kinh doanh - Du lịch Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob C X2 X2^2 X3 X3^2 X4 X4^2 -4.87E+10 -290.5845 0.003997 -1139.503 0.078147 9.66E+08 -4795803 7.94E+10 842.5364 0.020192 1141.223 0.088215 1.58E+09 7844231 -0.613130 -0.344893 0.197921 -0.998493 0.885866 0.612275 -0.611380 0.6498 0.7886 0.8756 0.5005 0.5385 0.6502 0.6507 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat ™ Th¸ng - 2010 0.637829 -1.535198 713975.4 5.10E+11 -110.8626 3.074313 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 381546.4 448412.1 29.46564 29.53515 0.293521 0.885543 ^ Y = 122850.1 + 0.384061X2 + 1.210804X3 – 1282.461X4 ^ ™ u = -4.87E+10 – 290.5845X2 + 0.003997 X ^ 0.078147 X 3^ 9.66E+08 X4 – 4795803 X ^ – 1139.503 X3 + ™ Compute W = n * R = 8*0.637829 = 5.102631 ™ χ (0.05,6) = 12.59 ™ Compare W & χ we have seen that: W< χ Do not reject Ho There is not enough evidence to conclude that Heteroscedasticity exist in the model 4.2.3 Autocorrelation To check whether this disturbance term of observation has influence on the error term of the other observation; we use Durbin – Watson test DW 2.754617 * ρ ∧ = 1=1= -0.3773 2 Negative autocolerration ™ Ho: ρ = no autocorrelation ™ Ha: ρ < yes, negative autocorrelation ™ We have DW = 2.754671 ™ α = 0.05, N=8, k’= -266- Héi nghÞ khoa học Sinh viên Khoa Quản trị kinh doanh - Du lịch Tháng - 2010 Look at the table D.5A we find that: ™ d l = 0.368 ™ d u = 2.287 ™ If d l ≤ (4-d) ≤ d u not reject Ho ™ We have 0.368 < (4 -2.754617) < 2.287 0.368 < 1.245< 2.287 Not reject Ho There is not enough evidence to conclude that Autocolerration exist in the model Dropping a variable is very important because it helps our model more accurate and significant If we drop CPI from the model, there are many changes in t- tests and R2 ttests They are very statistically significant and show the goodness of fit in our model It imply that tourism revenue depend a lot on number of visitors and investment CPI seems that it has no impact on tourism revenue After using remedial method, we can fix the multicollinearity problem Two rest problems are heterocedasticity and autocorrelation is shown that they doesn’t exist in our model Generally, three errors in our model are illustrated and fixed necessarily Recommendations: Through our research, we would like to give out some recommendations for Vietnam tourism following: Have a clear objectives and a strategic plan to attract the visitors come to Vietnam, especially to improve the quality of services in order to increase tourism revenue In addition to, the government should have policies to attract more the investment projects from both domestic and foreigner investors in tourism industry This is one reason to increase the sale revenue -267- Hội nghị khoa học Sinh viên Khoa Quản trị kinh doanh - Du lịch Tháng - 2010 THE FACTORS AFFECTING STATISTICS FINAL RESULTS OF FMT STUDENTS Written by: Pham Viet Dung, Luu Dieu Linh (BA-08) Nguyen Thi Dung (BA-08) Supervisor: PhD Dao Thanh Binh Abstract Realizing that the subject of Statistics and Probability much related to the subject Econometrics which is being learnt by almost all of the students in Faculty of Management and Tourism – Hanoi University (FMT – HANU), our group which consists of three students from Econometrics Tutorial 3-BA08 has decided to conduct a survey regarding the results of Statistics and Probability as well as the factors affecting this subject’s result.It was carried out in the end of April 2010, using questionnaires distributed to 45 FMT-08 students The data collected are used to test how significant the FMT-08 students’ result of Statistic and Probability is affected by the factors such as: gender, Mathematics mark of university entrance examination, IELTS mark, time of self-study and the participation in part-time jobs, etc A multiple regression model was estimated using figures with the help of Eviews software Then, Tests of Significance, Test of Multicollinearity, Test of Heteroscedasticity and Test of Autocorrelation were carried out In details, the Test of Significance was tested directly by the t-test and F-statistics shown in the estimation output table obtained by running Eviews; the Test of Multicollinearity was conducted by the Auxiliary Regression method; the Test of Heteroscedasticity was based on White Heteroscedasticity Test and scatter diagrams and the Test of Auto-Correlation was carried out by the Durbin-Watson d Test Surprisingly, the Test of Significance showed that the variable of Calculus mark did not have much impact on the Statistics’ result, while the variables of Mathematics mark and Entrance exam mark and Self-study time appeared to be the determinants The test of Multicollinearity unexpectedly forced us to drop Self-study time though it at first is considered to be the key factor Also, the White Heteroscedasticity Test revealsed the Heterocesdasticity did not exist Finally, by using the Durbin-Watson d Test to detect the Auto-correlation, the result appear to be negative Eventually, a regression function illustrating the relation between statistics mark and some of its explanatory variables was successfully established despite of the unexpected absence of self-study time (of Statistics) INTRODUCTION Statistics in the last semester was considered one of the most challenging subjects, and the results of our FMT’s students did appear to be generally low Depart from that fact, we are interested in finding out the possible relation (if any) between the Statistics final results and a number of relating variables Based on some subjective ideas, we target the following variables as the explanatory variables for our models: • Entrance Mark (Group D) • Math Mark • Self-study time per week ã Calculus final average mark -268- Hội nghị khoa học Sinh viên Khoa Quản trị kinh doanh - Du lịch Tháng - 2010 After collecting necessary data from both our real survey and from the internet, we first specify the model and identify the one the best fit the data and illustrate appropriately the relation between statistics final mark and the explanatory variables Having the right model on hand, we estimate the slope coefficients for each regressor and provide the explanation for them Then we test our established model with the test of significance, test of multicollinearity, test of heteroscedasticity and test of autocorrelation.After all, some ending conclusions are given about the concerned relation between statistics final mark and the explanatory variables DATA Entrance Mark (Group D) Since entrance mark is a good indicator of general competences of students, high entrance mark perhaps reveals some advantages for a student regarding to his/her mentality On the other hand, English is included as a subject in the entrance exam for group D and it is even double counted, so that a high entrance mark should illustrates good English skills, which are considered a big advantage when studying at Hanoi University generally, and studying Statistics particularly Source of data: The data about Entrance mark (group D) collected directly from the real survey Expectation: It is expected that the slope coefficient for that variable take positive value Math Mark Math refers to logical analysis, and high Math mark means good logical analyzing skills which are necessary to study such a subject like Statistics Source of data: The data for this variable is collected from the real survey Expectation: A positive value of slope coefficient attaching to Math Mark is expected Self-study time per week One may think that Math Mark and Entrance Mark are not really good determinant of Statistics result, and it is his choice Self-study time, however, cannot be refused as it is obviously one of the most influencing factors that can affect the result of any subjects Practice suggests a high mark for a student who spends enough time and puts adequate effort on Statistics Course since it is very hard to be handled Practice also suggests bad marks for those who spend just limited time and effort studying this subject Source of data: The data for this variable is collected directly from the survey Expectation: Obviously, we expect a positive value for the slope coefficient going with this variable Calculus final average mark Since calculus is a subject focuses more on the mathematic knowledge relating to economics and well supports the academic subjects like statistics, econometrics… we expect a student who is good at calculus to perform well in statistics Moreover, in -269- Héi nghÞ khoa häc Sinh viên Khoa Quản trị kinh doanh - Du lịch Th¸ng - 2010 Hanoi university that subject is taught and tested in English which is quite similar with Statistics course, that is significantly different from the math in the entrance exam Source of data: From the website of Hanoi University – FMT The data we use include unrounded figures rather than the rounded total mark available, and it means that we have to re-calculate all the total mark based on the internal marks of each student in our list of interviewees Expectation: We expect a positive relation between Statistics mark and Calculus final average mark MODEL SPECIFICATION From the data collected, we first examine the linear model with four explanatory variables including: • • • • Math mark Entrance mark Self-study time Calculus average mark Abbreviation- MATH Unit: point Abbreviation- ENTRANCE Unit: point Abbreviation- SELF Unit: hours Abbreviation- CAL Unit: point a Drop test Base on the draft calculation from Eview as follow: Eview result- linear regression of statistics final marks and the regressors Dependent Variable: STA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/16/10 Time: 23:15 Sample: 45 Included observations: 45 Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob C ENTRANCE MATH SELF CAL -4.050027 0.166739 0.408691 0.523061 0.165666 3.329212 0.108035 0.119336 0.106197 0.143841 -1.216512 1.543378 3.424695 4.925378 1.151730 0.2309 0.1306 0.0014 0.0000 0.2563 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat 0.755570 0.731127 0.642930 16.53435 -41.32473 2.379016 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 6.911111 1.239909 2.058877 2.259617 30.91146 0.000000 It is clear that the variable Calculus average mark (or Cal) appears to be insignificant Since the p-value of Cal is about 0.2563, the probability to make Type-I error is more than 25% which is pretty high, the null hypothesis: β5 =0 is not rejected Now we wonder whether it is appropriate dropping that variable or not and a formal drop test is employed: -270- Héi nghÞ khoa học Sinh viên Khoa Quản trị kinh doanh - Du lịch Tháng - 2010 The following result is for the model omitting Cal as an explanatory variable: Eview result- linear regression of statistics final marks and regressors after dropping variable “cal” Dependent Variable: STA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/16/10 Time: 23:28 Sample: 45 Included observations: 45 Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob C ENTRANCE MATH SELF -3.803626 0.194495 0.423612 0.555000 3.335532 0.105731 0.119103 0.102920 -1.140336 1.839528 3.556702 5.392544 0.2608 0.0731 0.0010 0.0000 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat 0.747464 0.728986 0.645485 17.08266 -42.05877 2.259929 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 6.911111 1.239909 2.047056 2.207649 40.45101 0.000000 The former is the old model, the latter is the new one F-Test: Ho: β5 = H1: β5 ≠ Rold2 = 0.755570 Rnew2 = 0.747464 F* = = 1.3160 < Fcritical ≈ (with α = 5%) -> Do not reject Ho Conclusion: Base on the result of the F-test, we can drop the variable “Cal” from the model, and the model then is better Without that variable in the model, now we have only independent variables, the next step is to test and find out the best function for the relation between the regressand and the regressors b Functional model test Then it is the time to test for the best model illustrating the relationship between Statistic Final Mark and the explanatory variables We regress all the functional models, as well as the linear model, to find out the one providing the least coefficient of variance (CV) In different words, the one which has least CV will be chosen -271- Héi nghÞ khoa häc Sinh viên Khoa Quản trị kinh doanh - Du lịch Th¸ng - 2010 CV= THE LINEAR MODEL: THE LOG-LIN MODEL CV= CV= = 0.093398 THE LOG-LOG MODEL CV= =0.056491 THE LIN-LOG MODEL =0.051617 CV= =0.089668 Since CV is the criteria and CV corresponding with the LOG-LINEAR MODEL is the least out of CVs We determine that LOG-LINEAR MODEL is the model best fit the data and well illustrates the relation between dependent variable and independent variables Conclusion: the model specification process ends with the following result: LOG(STATISTICS_MARK)^= β1^ + β2^LOG(ENTRANCEMARK) + β3^LOG(MATH_MARK) + β4^LOG(SELFSTUDY_TIME) c Result Estimation and explanation of parameters ™ Estimation of parameters By regressing the dependent variable Y (which is Log(Sta)) on the independent variables (Log(Math), Log(Self), and Log(Entrancemark)), we obtain the following results: Slope coefficients of the regressors (excluding the intercept term) in the Log-Liner model of the regression Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob C LOG(ENTRANCE) LOG(MATH) LOG(SELF) -2.919611 1.042083 0.547531 0.177579 1.724387 0.495089 0.127018 0.032380 -1.693130 2.104839 4.310646 5.484282 0.0980 0.0415 0.0001 0.0000 Formally we obtain the following sample regression: LOG(STA) = -2.919611345 + 1.042083192*LOG(ENTRANCE) + 0.5475306843*LOG(MATH) + 0.1775794188*LOG(SELF) ™ Explanation of parameter From the model, it is obvious that there is a positive relationship between Log(STA) and Log(ENTRANCE) Other things holding constant, %(0.01) changes in entrance mark results in an increase on the STA mark by 1.04% on average -272- Hội nghị khoa học Sinh viên Khoa Quản trị kinh doanh - Du lịch Tháng - 2010 Likewise, the math mark is positively related to The STA mark The positive coefficient slope of log(MATH) = 0.5475306843 indicates that if the MATH mark increases by 1% (0.01), the STA mark will increase by 0.547% on average with assumptions that other things hold constant Moreover, the slope coefficient of SEFT is also positive This indicates the positive relationship between STA and SEFT The value of estimated slope coefficient of SEFT = 0.1775794188 reveals that as SEFT time rise by 1%, other things hold constant, the estimated STA increases by 0.177% on average The value of R =0.756846, which is the coefficient of determination of the line, indicates that approximately 75.68% of variation of STA can be explained by variation of ENTRANCE, MATH, and SELF d Model testing ™ Test of significance • Individual partial coefficients Individual partial coefficient- Result from Eview Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob C LOG(ENTRANCE) LOG(MATH) LOG(SELF) 0.0980 0.0415 0.0001 0.0000 -2.919611 1.042083 0.547531 0.177579 1.724387 0.495089 0.127018 0.032380 -1.693130 2.104839 4.310646 5.484282 It is clear from the result that, given the significant level α = 0.05 all other slope coefficients are statistically significant since their p-values are not greater than 5% • Overall significance testing Eview result- Log-linear model of regression function of statistics final marks and the regressors Dependent Variable: LOG(STA) Method: Least Squares Date: 05/17/10 Time: 16:08 Sample: 45 Included observations: 45 Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob C LOG(ENTRANCE) LOG(MATH) LOG(SELF) -2.919611 1.042083 0.547531 0.177579 1.724387 0.495089 0.127018 0.032380 -1.693130 2.104839 4.310646 5.484282 0.0980 0.0415 0.0001 0.0000 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat 0.756846 0.739054 0.098888 0.400935 42.36171 2.168499 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) -273- 1.915773 0.193584 -1.704965 -1.544372 42.53917 0.000000 Héi nghÞ khoa học Sinh viên Khoa Quản trị kinh doanh - Du lịch Tháng - 2010 We conduct F-test to test the overall significance for the model and since F-statistic = 42.53917 which is indeed big enough to conclude that the regressors in fact have impacts on the regressand ™ Test of multicollinearity, heteroscedasticity and auto-correlation In order to test multicollinearity to see whether it exists or not, we first establish the correlation matrix among the independent variables: Correlation matrix among regressors LOG(ENTRANCE) LOG(SELF) LOG(MATH) LOG(ENTRANCE) 1.000000 0.476393 0.178240 LOG(SELF) LOG(MATH) 0.476393 0.178240 1.000000 0.457087 0.457087 1.000000 Since the correlation between Log (SELFSTUDY) and Log (ENTRANCEMARK) appears to be relatively high, we suspect there may be multicollinearity in the model established We decide to form the auxiliary regression, the variable “Log (Self)” is regressed on the other independent variables The F-statistic obtained from the auxiliary regression F=12.33382 (which is small) lead to the conclusion of no multicollinearity Then we formally use the white’s general heteroscedasticity (with cross term) to detect heteroscedasticity The following table provides E-view result of the model which has just been adjusted to fix the error of multicollinearity (by dropping Log(self)) From the output of Eview, n.R2 = 9.212771 follows the chi-square 2 distribution and since (0.05, 5) ) = 11.0705 > n.R we conclude that there is no heteroscedasticity We continue to use Durbin Watson d test to detect autocorrelation in the model, and the output of Eview show dstatistic = 2.262378, which is greater than du and smaller than – du.Thus, there is no auto-correlation CONCLUSION Since the interest is to find out whether there is any relation between the statistics final marks of FMT students and other suspicious factors which are in focus, specifically they are: Math mark, self-study time and entrance examination mark, we collect necessary data from our real survey at Hanoi university and examine the information on hand Base on Eview package, we successfully establish a regression function estimating the relationship of the variables Model specification process (which we to determine the best model possible) and testing process to determine the significance of the model, as well as ensure the model is free from some serious problems such as multicollinearity, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation are completed We can now safely provide our model to illustrate the relation between statistics final mark and some affecting factors as follow: LOG(STATISTICS_FINAL_MARK)^ = -7.611080901 + 2.267310581*LOG (ENTRANCE_MARK) + 0.8471985753*LOG(MATH_MARK) -274- Héi nghÞ khoa học Sinh viên Khoa Quản trị kinh doanh - Du lịch Tháng - 2010 LIMITATION Due to limitations in time and capability, we could only implement a small survey which provided a small number of figures as our model’s raw data Due to the nature of the survey, there can be inaccuracy figures that are submitted to us from the interviewees due to many reasons Furthermore, the result may also be depended on other variables apart from the indicators that we chose; therefore, our conclusion in this writing is supposed to subjective to some extents -275- .. .Hội nghị khoa học Sinh viên Khoa Quản trị kinh doanh - Du lịch Tháng - 2010 MC LC AN EXPLORATORY RESEARCH INTO... Nguyen Thi Hoa (TR-06) Vu Thi Thin, Hoang Thi Thanh Huyen, Do Thi Phuong (TR-06) Hội nghị khoa học Sinh viên Khoa Quản trị kinh doanh - Du lịch Tháng - 2010 10 COUNTRY RISK ANALYSIS IN VIETNAM... Dung, Luu Dieu Linh (BA-08) Nguyen Thi Dung (BA-08) Supervisor: PhD Dao Thanh Binh Hội nghị khoa học Sinh viên Khoa Quản trị kinh doanh - Du lịch Tháng - 2010 AN EXPLORATORY RESEARCH INTO WALKING