3~f BQ orAo DVC vA BAo T~O TRUONG D~I HQC MO THANH PH6 He) CHi MINH L (J, ( • ::m -&e~W&e~ - (~p~~ NGUYEN THI• PHUONG ANH cAc NHAN TO ANH HUONG BEN QUYET BINH MUA VAT TU NONG NGHIEP TRA• CHAM • • ? _ A A ? ~ CUA HO• NONG DAN TINH VINH LONG TlUIDHG O~I HOC M4 TP.HCM THUVIEN Chuyen ngRnh : Kinh te hQc Mil sB chuyen nganh : 60 31 03 _ ¥ N ~ LUAN VAN THAC SI KINH TE HOC • • • Nguai huang d~n khoa hQc: ~ PGS.TS NGUYEN MINH KIEU Thanh phB Hd Chi Minh, Nam 2013 (,6 NH~N XET ellA GIAo VlEN HUaNG nAN • Ten h9C vien: Nguy~n Thi Phuong Anh • LOp: Cao h9C kinh t~ • Ten d~ tai: Cac nhan t3 anh huang d~n quy~t dinh mua v~t tu nang·.nghi¢p tra ch~m cua hQ nang dan tinh VTnh Long HQc vien Nguy~n Thj Phuong Anh, lOp Cao h9C kinh t~, da n6 hfc thl!C hi¢n lu~n van duM Sl! huang d§n cua giao vien tho'j h~n quy djnh Sau nhi~u I§n chinh sua, d~n lu~n van aa holm t§t va co du di~u ki~n d~ bao v~ truac H(>i d&ng f)~ nghi Khoa Dao t~o Sau d~i h9C, trucrng D~i h9C M& TP.HCM s~p x~p vien h(>i d&ng va thai gian d~ h9C vien dugc trinh bay va bao v¢ lu~n van tmac H(>i d6ng Ngay 23 thang 07 nam 2013 Giao vien huang d~n PGS-TS Nguy~n Minh Ki€u 11 LfficAMBOAN Toi cam doan r~ng lu~n van: "Cae yiu t6 imh huang din quyit dinh mua w# tu nang nghi?p tra ehq.m eua h6 nang dan tlnh Vinh Long" la bai nghh~n Clm cua chinh toi Ngoai trir nhfrng tai li~u tharn khao duqc trich dful lu~ van nay, toi cam doan rkg toan ph§n hay nhfrng ph§n nho Clla lu~ van chua timg duqc cong b6 ho~c duqc sir d\lng de nh~ bkg c!p anhfrng noi khac Khong co san phAmJnghien Clm nao cua nguai khac duqc sir d\lllg lu~n van rna khong duqc trich dfin theo dung quy dinh Lu~ van chua bao gia duqc n(>p de nh~n b!t truang d~i hQc ho~c co sa dao t~o khac Thanh ph6 H6 Chi Minh, niim 2013 Nguy~n Thj Phuang Anh ky b~ng c!p nao ~i cac 111 Lm cAM ON Toi xin gui lai cam an chan Thanh nhAt d~n nguai huang dan khoa hQc cua toi la PGS.TS Nguy8n Minh Ki~u Thdy da nhi~t tinh huang dan, dQng vien va dua nhfrng d6ng g6p quy gia qua trinh nghien Clm d~ toi hoan Thanh t5t lu~n van thf;lc SI vai d~ tai "Cae y€u t6 imh huimg d€n quy€t dinh mua wjt tu nong nghi~p tra chijm cua h9 nong dan tinh V'inh Long" Toi cling giri lai cam an Ti~n sl Nguy8n Minh Ha Truang khoa Dao tf;lo Sau Df;li hQc - TruOng Df;li hQc Mo Thanh ph5 H6 Chi Minh da cho toi nhi~u y ki~n dong gop qua trinh nghien clm Toi cam an tAt ca quy thdy, co Khoa Dao tf;lO Sau Df;li hQc - TruOng Df;li hQc Mo Thanh ph5 H6 Chi Minh da nhi~t tinh giang df;ly va truy~n df;lt ki~n thuc qua trinh toi hQc t~p tf;li truOng Va cu5i cung, toi gui lai cam an gia dinh va be bf;lll da dQng vien toi su5t qua trinh hQc t~p cling nhu hoan lu~n van Tp.HCM, thimg niim 2013 Nguy8n Thi Phuang Anh iv TOM TAT Tim hi€u v€ ngu6n vim cho san xudt nong nghi~p nong thon, nghien Clm thdy r~ng : da s6 nguai nong dan d€u khong co du v6n tich lily d€ san xudt nong nghi~p va ngu6n v6n co duqc la m6i hQ t\l minh xoay sa Vai d~c tinh san xudt nong nghi~p nh6 Ie, ddt san xudt manh mun, m6i hQ la mQt thira ddt, th~m chi co hQ c6 den hai, ba thira ddt san xUdt nen cach thuc m6i hQ t\l tim v6n Ia khac : vay ngan hang, vay muqn hQ hang, vay tin d\lng den va phi> bien nhdt la hQ sir d\lng hinh thuc mua chiu v~t tu nong nghi~p ill a cac d~i ly v~t a dia phuang Nghien cuu thdY r~ng quyet dinh mua tra ch~m v~t tu nong nghi~p cua nong hQ a tinh Vinh Long co th€ chiu anh huang bai cac yeu t6 : cac d~c tinh cua chu hQ ( nguai quyet dinh sinh ke gia dinh ) nhu tui>i, giai tinh, trinh dQ hQc vdn, thu nh~p binh quan ddu nguai cua hQ, di~n tich dAt canh tac hQ, nh~n dinh gia mua tra ch~m la hqp Iy, m6i quan h~ xli hQi giua chu hQ va nguai ban chenh I~ch gia mua tni v~t tu, duqc S\l tM trq til ngan hang va ch~m Qua thu th~p s6 li~u, b~ng mo hinh h6i quy Binary Logistic, ket qua la : quyet dinh mua tra ch~m v~t tu nong nghi~p cua hQ nong dan chiu anh huang bai 05 yeu t6 : (1) thu nh~p binh quan ddu nguai cua hQ gia dinh, (2) gia mua tra ch~m hqp Iy, ( 3) quan h~ xa hQi vai nguai ban, (4) tM trq til ngan hang, (5) chenh I~ch gia mua tra ch~m, vai cac muc dQ anh huang m~nh yeu khac Til nhftng yeu t6 tac dQng c6 y nghia th6ng ke, nghien cuu cho thdy r~ng vi~c mua tra ch~m v~t tu nong nghi~p cua nong hQ khong duqc th\lc hi~n d\la vao vi~c tinh toan gifta lqi ich va chi phi rna chu yeu d\la vao cam tinh cua nguai mua, cac m6i quan h~ xli hQi va d\la vao S\l ti~n ich cua hQ Quyet dinh d~n den chi phi d€ san xudt nong nghi~p rdt cao (trong d6 chi phi cho phan bon, thu6c bao v~ th\lc v~t chiem 80% ti>ng chi phi) nen Iqi nhu~n thu duqc rAt thdp Hi~u qua san xUdt nong nghi~p khong cao, chua t~o dQng l\lc cho nong dan phat tri€n san xudt, dai s6ng nguai dan v~n chua duqc cai thi~n nhi€u v D~ Uti t~p trung vao cac giiti phap kh~c ph\lc cac nhugc di€m tren, d~ xudt cac gild phap v~ phfa cO' quan nha nuac, ngan hang va nong dan d~ tim v6n gia re cho SilO xudt nong nghi~p nhAm h~ gia san xudt, nang cao nang Il)'c qlOh tranh cho cac m~t hang nong san rna chu y€u Ia Ilia g~o, day Ia san phAm chu ll)'c cua tinh nhAm tang thu nh~p cho ngh~ tr3ng Ilia, nang cao muc s6ng cho nong dan cling nhu phat tri€n kinh t€ tinh nha VI DANH MVC cAc HiNH vA so DO Hinh 3.1: SA db quy trinh nghh~n e(ru 21 Hinh 3.2: Mo hinh nghien e(ru d€ xuAt 27 Hinh 4.1: Tu3i eua ehu hQ 42 Hinh 4.2: Thu nh~p eua hQ gia dinh .42 Hinh 4.3: Di~n tieh dAt eanh tae 43 VB DANH MVC cAc BANG Bang 3.1: T6m tit cac bi8n mo hinh va kyvQng dAu 33 Bang 4.1: CO' cAu kinh t8 tinh Vinh Long giai do~ 2008 - 2011 37 Bang 4.2: GDP tinh Vinh Long giai do;;tn 2007 - 2011 38 Bang 4.3: Di~n tich dAt trbng Ilia va san IUQ11g giai do~ 2008 - 2011 39 Bang 4.4: Tinh hinh mua chiu v~t tu nong nghi~p 40 Bang 4.5: K8t qua thtmg ke cua mdu 44 Bang 4.6: Th6ng ke mo ta cac bi8n dinh IUQ11g .45 Bang 4.7: Th6ng ke mo ta cac bi8n dinh tinh 47 Bang 4.8: K8t qua h6i quy Binary Logistic 49 Bang 4.9: K8t qua d\l' bao tinh chinh xac cua mo hinh 51 Vlll MVCLVC Trang Nh,n xet eiia ngwOi htrUog din khoa hQc i LM cam doan ii LOi cam O'D • •.• .• •.• • • •• •.•• •.••••••••••• • • •••••.•.• • ••• iii , Tom tit iv , Danb m\Ie biob va sa ; vi ' b?ang VII Danh mvc cae Myc J1}C •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• viii Ch ang 1: Gioo thi~u ••.••• • • • •.• 1.1 Ly nghien ciru 1.2 M\lc tieu nghien ciru 1.3 Cau hoi nghien ciru 1.4 Ph~m vi va d6i tugng nghien ciru 1.5 Y nghla th\lc ti~n cua d~ tai 1.6 B6 C\lC lu~ van Ch1fO'D.g 2: CO' sir If thuy~t va mo blob nghien cUU • • • .••.•.•••••••• • 2.1 Cac khai ni~m 2.1.1 V~t tu nong nghi~p 2.1.2 Nong hQ 2.1.3 Tin d\lIlg 2.1.4 Rui ro tin d\lng ~ 2.2 Cac ly thuy~t lien quan 2.2.1 Ly thuy~t thong tin bftt can ximg tren thi w cuahang cua hang Lo~i v~t tu nong nghi~p dugc gia dinh Ong/Ba mua: D Phan b6n D Thu6c bao v~ thlJC v~t D Thu6c kich thich tang trufulg cay trAng D Khac: Nguai ban v~t tu nong nghi~p c6 quan h~ xa hQi vui gia dinh OngiBa khong? DC6 Khong N€u c6, hay cho bi€t C\l th~ m6i quan h~ la: D HQhang Hangx6m D Quen bi€t lau nam Mua ban nhi€u nam D Khac (Neu ro: ) quen b'let l'a Th'ang Va, Th"at gIan A 10 86 V\lIlia gia dinh Ong/Ba gieo trAng 12 thang qua(l nam) la: 11 Chi phi phan b6n, thu6c bao v~ thllc v~t cho mqt cong d~t trAng Ilia cho 12 thang qua (1 nam) la: (tri~u dAng) 12 86 ti€n gia dinh Ong/Ba vay ngan hang d~ ph\lc V\l trAng Ilia 12 thang qua (1 nam) la tri~u dAng 13 T6ng thu nh~p cua gia dinh Ong/Ba 12 thang qua (1 nam) Ia: (tri~u dAng) Trongd6: - Thu nh~p tir trAng Ilia: (tri~u dAng) 68 - Thu nh~p til cac ngu6n khac (khong phai til tr6ng Ina): (tri~u d6ng) 14 S6 nhan khAu gia dinh Ong/Ba: nguui 15 Ong, ba>cho bi€ t di~n tich ddt nong nghi~p gia dinh dang canh tac? Lo~i dAt STT BAt tr6ng lua BAt tr6ng cay an BAt thuQc quyen sir d\mg cua gia BAt di thue dinh (1.000 m 2) (1.000 m 2) qua BAt khac 16 B~ co lQ'i han vi~c mua phan bon, thu6c BVTT Ong/Ba co de xuAt gi (chinh quyen dia phuanglcira hang nong dUQ'c/ )? 17 N€ u chQn gifra mua tra ch~m v~t tu iJ cira hang va duQ'c ngan hang cho vay d~ mua v~t tu thi Ong/Ba chQn phuang an nao? Ly do? PHAN THONG TIN Huy~n cA NIlAN NGUm BUQC PHONG VAN cu tru: D LongH6 D Mang Thit D TamBinh D TraOn Gi&i tinh Nam Tu6i : D Nfr D Viing Liem 69 Trinh dQ hQc van: Xin cam em Ong/ Ba dll hQ1J tac! 70 Ph1} 11}e 3: KET QuA xu LY s6 LItU TREN SPSS 20 Correlations Quyet dinh mua vat tu nong nghiep tra cham Thu nh~p blnh quan he'> Gi6i tinh cua chu hQ Trinh di;! hoc v~n cua chu hi;! TuOi cua chu hi;! Di~n tich d~t canh tac Quan h~ xi!i hQi v6i ngU'ai ban Gia mua hQ'p Iy rai trQ' t(r ngan hang Pearson Correlation -.086 Sig (2-tailed) 095 N 380 Pearson Correlation 025 Sig (2-tailed) 633 N 380 Pearson Correlation -.086 Sig (2-tailed) 094 N 380 Pearson Correlation 116 Sig (2-tailed) 023 N 380 Pearson Correlation 024 Sig (2-tailed) 638 N 380 Pearson Correlation ­ 197 Sig (2-tailed) 000 N 380 Pearson Correlation - 203 Sig (2-tailed) 000 N 380 Pearson Correlation 202 ­ Sig (2-tailed) 000 N 380 ­ Quyet dinh mua vat tu nong Pearson Correlation nghiep tra cham Sig (2-tailed) 000 N 380 Chenh lech gia mua tra ch(im Pearson Correlation 634 Sig (2-tailed) N 380 H~ sf:, tuong quan duge s~p theo thir tg ti.r IOn t6i nh6 : Chenh l~eh gia mua tra eh~, Gia mua hgp ly, Tai trg tir ngan hang, Quan h~ xa hQi v6i nguai ban, Tu6i eua chu 71 h9, Thu nh~p binh quan h9, Trinh d9 chu h9, Giai tinh chu h9, Di~n tich dAt canh bic KET QuA HOI QUY THEO PHUONG pHAP DUA VAo DAN Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients Chi-square Step Sig df Step 219.697 000 Block 219.697 000 Model 219.697 000 Mo d e IS ummary Step Cox & Snell R Nagelkerke R Square Square -2 Log likelihood 228.277 634 439 a Estimation terminated at iteration number because parameter estimates changed by less than 001 Classification Table8 Predicted Quyet dinh mua vat tu nong nghieptra cham Khong mua Observed Step Percentage Mua Correct Quyet dinh mua vat tu nong Khong mua 82 23 78.1 nghiep tra cham Mua 15 260 94.5 Overall Percentage 90.0 a The cut value is 500 Variables in the Equation B Step S.E Wald Sig df Exp(B} X7 2.282 411 30.882 000 9.794 X8 1.069 457 5.464 019 2.912 X9 494 049 101.879 000 1.638 -2.488 369 45.400 000 083 Constant a Variable(s) entered on step 1: X7, X8, X9 72 Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients Chi-square Step Sig df Step 224.854 000 Block 224.854 000 Model 224.854 000 ModiSummary e Cox & Snell R Nagelkerke R Square Square -2 Log likelihood Step 223.1208 447 645 a Estimation terminated at iteration number because parameter estimates changed by less than 001 Classification TableS Predicted Quyet dinh mua vat tu nong nghie :> tra cham Khong mua Observed Step Quyet dinh mua vat tu nong Khong mua nghiep tra cham Mua Percentage Mua Correct 77 28 73.3 266 96.7 Overall Percentage 90.3 a The cut value is 500 Variables in the Equation B Step S.E Wald Exp(B) Sig df X6 797 355 5.033 025 2.219 X7 2.232 420 28.268 000 9.318 X8 1.113 456 5.963 015 3.045 X9 493 050 98.562 000 1.637 -2.843 419 46.157 000 058 Constant a Variable(s) entered on step 1: X6, X7, X8, X9 73 Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients Chi-square Step Sig df Step 225.423 000 Block 225.423 000 Model 225.423 000 ModeISummary Step Cox & Snell R Nagelkerke R SQuare SQuare -2 Log likelihood 222.551 B 646 447 a Estimation terminated at iteration number because parameter estimates changed by less than 001 Classification TablePredicted Quyet dinh mua vat tu nong nghiep tra cham Observed Step Khong mua Quyet dinh mua vat tu nong Khong mua nghiep tra cham Mua Percentage Mua Correct 77 28 73.3 266 96.7 Overall Percentage 90.3 a The cut value is 500 Variables in the Equation B Step X6 758 S.E Wald df Sig Exp(B) 359 4.464 035 2.134 X7 2.241 421 28.391 000 9.402 X8 1.135 458 6.124 013 3.110 97.771 000 1.634 452 1.013 X9 491 050 X4 013 018 Constant -3.465 936 a Variable(s) entered on step 1: X6, X7, X8, X9, X4 .565 13.707 000 031 74 Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients Chi-square Step df Sig Step 232.606 000 Block 232.606 000 Model 232.606 000 Mo d e ISummary Cox & Snell R Nagelkerke R Square Square -2 Log likelihood Step 215.369 a 661 458 a Estimation terminated at iteration number because parameter estimates changed by less than 001 Classification Table a Predicted Quyet dinh mua vat tu nang nghiep tra cham Khong mua Observed Step Quyet dinh mua vat tu nong Khong nghiep tra cham mua Mua Percentage Correct Mua 79 26 75.2 10 265 96.4 Overall Percentage 90.5 a The cut value is 500 Variables in the Equation B a Step S.E Wald df Sig Exp(B) X6 891 368 5.870 015 2.438 X7 2.242 432 26.967 000 9.416 X8 1.103 467 5.584 018 3.012 X9 507 051 97.729 000 1.660 X4 009 019 234 628 1.009 X1 000 000 7.124 008 1.000 X3 -.038 065 333 564 963 -2.583 1.227 4.430 035 076 Constant a Variable(s) entered on step 1: X6, X7, X8, X9, X4, X1, X3 75 Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients Chi-square Step df Sig Step 233.248 000 Block 233.248 000 Model 233.248 000 Mo d e ISummary Step Cox & Snell R Nagelkerke R Square Square -2 LOQ likelihood 214.726 a 459 663 a Estimation terminated at iteration number because parameter estimates changed by less than 001 Classification Table a Predicted Quyet dinh mua vat tu nong nghiep tra cham Observed Step Khong mua Percentage Mua Correct Quyet dinh mua vat tu nong Khong mua 81 24 77.1 nghiep tra cham 10 265 96.4 Mua Overall Percentage 91.1 a The cut value is 500 varia blesm the E:quaf Ion B Step 1a S.E Wald Sig df Exp(B) X6 916 370 6.140 013 2.500 X7 2.258 433 27.151 000 9.563 X8 1.134 468 5.872 015 3.107 X9 508 051 97.497 000 1.661 X4 009 019 217 642 1.009 X1 000 000 7.151 007 1.000 X3 -.037 065 332 565 963 X2 488 599 662 416 1.6?8 -3.027 1.344 5.074 024 048 Constant a Variable(s) entered on step 1: X6, X7, X8, X9, X4, X1, X3, X2 76 variables in the Equation B SlepO Constant S.E Wald ,115 ,963 Exp(B) Sig df 70,440 ,000 2,619 KIEM BlNH WALD : SIG[...]... quy€t dinh mua chiu v~t tu (+) - x7 mua (Gia mua tra ch(im hQP ly): Gia ca Ia gia thi troang cua hang hoa c~n a day gia ca mua chiu bao g6m gia thi 1ruang cua hang hoa cQng vai ti€n mua chiu Bi€n gia mua tra ch~m hQ'P Iy {y Iiii day d\l'a vao cam nh~n cua nguai duqc phong v~n, co the gia mua tni ch~m cao han liii su~t ngan hang (th~p han yay t\l' do) nhung nguai mua vfut quy€t dinh mua chiu Gia mua tra... cua nong he> sau khi k€t mua VI) va phai chiu ti~n lai mua tra ch~m cho cac chu cua hang v~t tu nong nghi~p Xac dinh cac y€u tb itnh huang den quy€t dinh mua v~t ill nong nghi~p tn! ch~ cua he> nong dan a tinh Vinh Long Til do su d\lng cac cong C\l ky thu~t de do lubng muc de> itnh huang cua cac y€u tb nay den hanh vi mua hang Tren cO' sa cac y€u tb quy€t dinh den hanh vi mua v~t ill tra ch~m se ggi... nhu sau: 25 Trong do: P (Y=l) = Po: Xac suAt mua tni ch~m v~t tu nong nghi~p P (Y=0) = 1 - Po: Xac suAt khong mua tni ch~m v~t tu nong nghi~p Trong do: ~o: d~i IUQ'Ilg sai s6 ngfru nhien ~1 • I3n: h~ s6 co gian (mg vai cac bien tuong (mg Po p(muachiu) V ai h~ s6 Odd : 0 0 = 1- Po = p(khongmuachiu) Ia h~ s6 chenh I~ch mua chiu ban dAu, trong do Po Ia xac suAt mua chiu ban dAu Gia dinh r~ng cac yeu t6 khac... dan tinh Vinh Long" se nghien ctru vAn d~ tren Til do d~ xuAt ra dugc mQt s6 giai phap nh~m giup nguai dan dap Ung dugc nhu cfru v~ v6n phl,lc Vl) cho phat trien nong nghi~p 3 1.2 M\lc tieu nghien c ru Mua tra ch~m v~t tu nong nghi~p anong thon rAt da d~g, c6 the mua it va tra ngay khi c6the ho~c mua ng nhi~u den h€t mua VI) m&i tra ca gbc va Uli a day d~ tfli t~p trung nghien Clm hanh vi mua tra ch~m... khac nhau, nguOi tre tu6i thi lam th~ nao d~ hanh vi mua slim cua minh 1ft 1 ... dinh mua chiu v~t tu (+) - x7 mua (Gia mua tra ch(im hQP ly): Gia ca Ia gia thi troang cua hang hoa c~n a day gia ca mua chiu bao g6m gia thi 1ruang cua hang hoa cQng vai ti€n mua chiu Bi€n gia mua. .. Tinh hinh mua chiu v~t tu nong nghi~p sb hQ dieu tra hQ'p l~ 380 sb hQ mua chiu 275 Ty l~ mua chiu (%) 72,36 Thai h~ mua chiu ngAn nhAt thang I Thai h~ mua chiu lau nhAt 4thang I Thai h~ mua chiu... co the gia mua tni ch~m cao han liii su~t ngan hang (th~p han yay tl' do) nhung nguai mua vfut quy€t dinh mua chiu Gia mua tra ch~m hQ'P Iy Ia bi€n gia ; Nh~ gia tri Ia I n€u nguai mua cho rfutg