w~~~~'[i1j ~ A' \I " Il A;' I NGUONGOCCAN'BANVACOCHETRUYENDANLAMPHAT trongcaen6nkinhte'chuy'nd6i rLtdCkhi chuyendoi, trangcac nLtdcXHCN, I,?mphat b! kim ham C6 cau dU'thl1a nhLtng tinhtr,?ngdLtcau khong chuy~nvao I~mpMt vi slJki~m soat gia, va I,?m phatho~c sieu I,?mphat chi c6 th~ batdau gia ca dLtc;Jc xac I$p m9t eachtlJ Trang qua trinh chuy~n doi, I,?m pMt b! kim ham da trd thanhI,?mphat md cau tang len, cungb! co I,?i,pM gia m,?nh,tham h~ttai chinh da t'?onen slJmat can doi nghiem trQng Khi cac nLtdc XHCN tien hanh chLtCJng trinh on d!nh, I,?mphat giam di, nhLtngsan ILtc;Jng da giam di nhanh ch6ng, nguy cCJtai I~m phat van ton t~i Nguon goc can ban cua I~m phat trang qua trinh chuy~n doi c6 th~ dLtc;Jc tim thay trang SlJtham hl,!ttai chinh bat nguontl1ho~td9ng khong c6 hi$u qua cua cac doanh nghi$p Nha nLtdC,tl1vi$c bao cap cua ngan sach, tl1cac khoan chi tieu Idn cho quand9i,thamnhOng,tham hl,!tcan can toan, nc;JnLtocngoai va nc;Jnan day dLta gilia cac doanh nghi$p DlJa tren quan di~m cua trLtc n$ng ne VaG vi~c ki~m soat gia va sa hG'u cac DNNN d~ tc;tO va sau d6 la thu nhU'ngkhoan th$ng dLi Ion tli khu vLJCcong nghi~p Khi tLJ h6a bat dau, phan tai san cong nghi~p thu(>c sa hG'ucua Chinh phu bat dau giam xuong, them VaGd6, vi~c tLJdo h6a gia ca va cc;tnhtranh cong nghi~p tli cac nguon ILJCtrong nLioc va ngoai nLioc di:i lam giam lc;1i nhu~n bien cua tat ca cac doanh nghi~p cong nghi~p cho du doanh nghi~p d6 c6 thu(>c sa hG'u Nha nLioc hay khong Ket qua la thu nh~p cua Chinh pM (tinh bang % cua GDP) di:i giam xuong nhanh ch6ng, vi dl,J,thu nh~p cua Chinh phu Trung Quoc di:i giam tli 34,8% nam 1978 xuong 18,5% nam 1991, tham hl,Jttai s;hinh di:i len toi 10% nam 19916 Vi~c giam ngan sach cua Chinh phu, den ILic;1t n6 lam tram trQng tham hl,Jt ngan sach hau het cac nLioc XHCN va gay ap ILJCIc;tmphat Me) ,')ng tin dyng Khi nen kinh te thLJChi~n tLJdo h6a gia ca va ty gia hoi doai, gia dau VaGtang len, d$c bi~t gia hang nh~p khau tang rat mc;tnh, nhieu DNNN phai dLiCJngdau voi nhU'ng kh6 khan d~ dieu chinh I~p tUc theo tinh hinh moi va bi thi~t hc;tirat nhieu Nhin chung, cac chinh phu khOng muon d~ cac DNNN sl,JPd6 vi ca 19do chinh tr! va 19do kinh te, d6, van phai tri bao cap cua ngan sach D~ bao v~ DNNN khoi pha san, thong qua h~ thong ngan hang, Chinh phu di:i cung cap khong hc;tnche cac khoan tin dl,Jngvoi li:ii suat am cho DNNN di:i lam tang rat Ion ILic;1ng tien ILiUthong Vi dl,J, cong vi~c ki~m soat cac khoan vay ngan hang GDP, gan voi muc trung binh cua Dong A va Thai Binh DLiong la Trong cac nLioc Dong Au, cac ngan hang trung LiCJngphai tiep tuc trc;1giup cac DNNN dLioi hinh th~c cho vay li:ii suat thap hoac tai tai trCJ cac khoan nCJnan day dva gilia ca~ 102,4% va 30,7%1° Hau hat n9 nLioc ngoai cua khu vLJCkinh te ILl nhan Trung Quoc dLic;1c chuy~n vao thong qua cac trung gian tai chfnh dLic;1C chi dinh hoc;ttd(>ngnhLila "cac doanh nghi~p cac ngan hang khong th~ huy dong dLiCJc von voi hai 19do ThO nhat;li:iisut nam 1989 di:itang them hCJn2 ty USD, bat dau giam di chut it VaG dau nam 1990 dLic;1C ban Ic;tiVaG cuoi nam 1990 Nga voi khoan nc;1rang 30 ty USD, Bulgaria tren 10 ty USD, khong can a 68 ,??,.- SLi sup cua khol thLiCJngmal Nga8 Them vaod6, h~ thong ngan hang tLi nhan dang n6i len va hoc;tt d9ng kem hi~u qua di:i g6p phan kh~ n~ng ~LJa,v~o cac ngu~n von ch~y vao~de ~?uda~ SLJ~uy gl~m thu nh~p ho~c gl~m bd; ga,nh n,c;tngn? (CQng hoa ~an ch,~ ~IlC ~~ 1o~ty Trung Quoc, khoan vay moi tli USD n~ n~~c ~?goal~ao gl~~ na,m ngan hang di:i tang tli 18 ty NDT 1~909tc;tlthCJIdiem thong nhat nLidc nam 1978 len 378 ty NDT DIlC) nam 19917.Dieu di:i gay Trung Quoc t6ng so nc;1nLioc ap ILJCIc;tmphat rat mc;tnhva day ngoai k~ ca ngan hc;tnva dai hc;tn cOngla m(>tchi so kh~ng d!nh rang tang len 83,6 ty USD VaGcuoi nam cac nha chuc trach linh VLJC 1993, tliCJng dLiCJngvoi 95% hang tien t~ cua Trung Quoc di:i khong Tham hyt can can toan xuat khau va dich VI,Jho$c 22% CU{I ~ hCJnso voi gia bao cap cua Lien Xc Nhling nLioc d6 di:i dLiCJng dau voi vi~c giam "chi so gia xuat nh~p khau" voi ben ngoai va cOng mat kim ngc;tchxuat khau khu vLJc Cac nLiocDong Au bi thi~t hc;tinhieu nhat nhU'ngcu soc nay.Vi dl,J, tc;tiUkraine gia nh~p khau dau va gas nam 1993 tinh tren danh nghia la khoang 1.080 Ian va cao gap565Ianso voi gia nam 199111 Day la nhan to quan trQng tc;tOra sLJ mat can doi Iontrong can can toan cua Ukraine Them VaG d6, giam cau xuat khau Lien bang Xo Viet (cO) cOng tc;tOra m(>t SLJbat lc;1idang k~ cho kim ngc;tch xuat khau cua Ukraine M$t khac, can can thLiCJngmc;ti toi t~ di suot nhU'ng nam dau cua qua trinh chuy~n d6i cac nLioc XHCN phan nao phan anh thLJCte rang m9t nh~p khau khong bi ki~m soat, khong phai tat ca hang nh~p khau dLic;1cdLia VaG danh cho vi~c san xuat hang xuat khau hO$c cho cac doanh nghi~p san xuat M(>t phan tang len dLic;1C danh cho hang tieu dung Tc;ti Hungary, hang tieu dung chI chiem ' T~ CIJiNCAA IIANC - s6 NAM2004 TAl CHiNH w£~~~TI11 12,5%trong tong tri gia hang nh~p kh§unam 1989 nhU'ngda tang len 22,7% vao dau nam 1991 Ba Lan,trong thang dau nam 1991, hangtieu dung.'trong hang nh~p kh§udi:itang tCt18,8% len 31:6% Tinhtren ty I~ tang tnrdng, doi vai Bulgaria,Czechoslovakia,Hungary, Poland,Romania,va Lien Xo (cG), hangtieu dung co xu hLfangtang nhanh nhat tong so hang nh?pkh~u nam 1992,tren ca cong ngh~va tLfli~u san xuat12 a D~ doi vai tinh tr~ng chay nguen Il,J'Cra ben ngoai nhU'ng nam80 bu()c Chinh phu Nam TLf phaithl,J'Chi~n cac bi~n phap rat (4) lam nhLf v~y, gan nhLf h9 dLfgc doanhnghi'p Ng nan day dLfagi[(a cacdoanh nghi~pphat sinh nguyennhan Tha nhat, h~ thong cG, cac DNNN da rat m~t moi d~ dap ltQg cac chi tieu dLfgcgiao Khi h9 da "General (5) China, Macroeconomic Stability in a Decentralized Economv, The World Bank, 1995,trang xiv (6) Mckinnon, Ronald I" Financial Growth and Macroeconomic Stabilitvin China 1978 -1992, Imolications for Russia and Other Transitional Economies Journal of comparative economics, Josef C" Barada (ed.), Vol 18, 1994, trang 438 (7) On KitTam, Financial Reform in ~trang 32 (8) Mckinnon, Ronald I "Financial Growth and Macroeconomic Stabilityin China, 1978- 1992:Implicationsfor Russia and Other Transitional Economies", Journal oof Comparative Economics, Vol 18,1994, trang 463 (9) Nut;, Domenico Mario, "Stabilization and Sequencing in the Reformof SocialistEconomic", in Simon Commander (ed.), Mana9in9 Inflationin Socialist Economics in Transition The World Bank, 1991.trang 136 (10) China Macroeconomic Stabilitv in a Decentralized Economv The World Bank, 1995,trang 16 (11) McCarthy, F Desmond (et 01), External Shocks and Performance Resoonses durina Svstem Transition.The Case of Ukraine Policy Research WorkingPaper No 1361,TheWorldBank, 1994 (12) Amsden, Alice H" The Market Meets its Match, Restructurina the Economies of Eastern Eurooe Hcward UniversityPress, 1994,trang 102 Word Bank, 1991 trang (2) Amsden, Micheal (ed.), Economic Transition in Eastern Eurooe Blackwellpublichers, 1995,trang 23 m~nhd~ can bang cancanthanh toan.ChLfelngtrinh dieu chinh bao gempha gia rat m~rih va, trLfactien la giam m~nh hang nh~p kh~u ThOngqua cac bi~nphap dod~lam tang th~ng dLf can can vang lai, trongthl,J'C te, hau nhLfngay sau do, (1) Roe, Alan, ''Managing Inflation in in Simon ho~td(mg kinh te suy thoai va I~m Socialist Economies ", Commander (ed.), Managing Inflation in phatda tang len nhanh chong Socialist economies in Transition, The Nq n&n day duo giita e6e Ellman, Aspects of Transition ", in P.H.Admiraal toan tll di?ngva Nha nLfacdam bao vi~c toan cuoi cung cho h9 Trong qua trinh chuy~n doi, rat nhieu DNN~ da ngU'ngthanh toan cho ngLfCJi cung cap, ho~c vi h9 thieu tien ho~cvi h9 thayco Igi cac bi~n phap ph~t khong co hi~u IIICva vi~cch~mtn~thanhtoan56 lam giam gia tri thl,J'Cte cua cac khoan toan mi?t moi trLfCJng I~m phat cao Tha hai, chinh sach tien t~ that ch~t da dLfgccac nLfac XHCN ap dt:mg cac chLfelngtrinh on dinh, di:i khuyen khich cac doanh nghi~p tim kiem cac nguon tai trg phi ngan hang do, lam tang ng nan gi[(a cac doanh nghi~p.Cac khoan ng nan gi[(a cac doanh nghi~p cang tang gay ap IIICcho Chinh phu va Ngan hang TrungLfelngphai tai tai trg maden ILfgtno gay ap Il,J'C I~m phat.8 Alice H (eds.) The Market Meets its Match Restructurina the Economies of Eastern Eurooe, Harvard University Press, 1994, trang 31 (3) Aslund, Anders, "lessons of the First Four Years of Systemic Change in Eastern Europe", Journal of Comparative Economics, Vol 19, 1994, trang 26 Kinhnlhiem mol so n.oc Ironl viee nanl cao nanll.c lai chinh va ~ha nanl canh Iranhcua nlan hanllh.onl L ':;;T1lhenao de tang von tl,J'co luon la mi?t van de quan tr9ng d~t doi vai cac ngan hang thLfelng m~i (NHTIy1),day la Cd Sd quan tr9ng nhat d~ tang kha nang c~Qh tranh va bao dam ho~t di?ng ngan hang c6 hi~u qua Hi~n nay, theo NHNN thi ty I~ an toan von dLfgc phan anh qua ty I~ von tl,J'co tren tong nguon von tinh binh quan cua cac NHTM Nha nLfac chi d~t 3,72%, rat thap so vai chu~n ml,J'c quoc te la 8%1 TS D6 Van Due * cac NHTM theo tieu chuan quoc te, kho.angmi?t ty USD,cM NhLf v~y, cung vai nhU'nggiai yeu bang cach phat hanh trai phieu phap doi mai quan Iy, doi mai va ap d~c bi~t cua Bi?Hi chinh Cho den dyng cong ngh~ hi~n d~i, xuly ng tMi di~m nam 2003, Chinh pM da ton d9ng, tang von tl,J'co la mi?t cap bo sung cho ngan hang dieuki~ncanthietd~ chu ... NAM2004 TAl CHiNH w£~~~TI11 12,5 %trong tong tri gia hang nh~p kh§unam 1989 nhU'ngda tang len 22,7% vao dau nam 1991 Ba Lan ,trong thang dau nam 1991, hangtieu dung. 'trong hang nh~p kh§udi:itang tCt18,8%... bi~nphap dod~lam tang th~ng dLf can can vang lai, trongthl,J'C te, hau nhLfngay sau do, (1) Roe, Alan, ''Managing Inflation in in Simon ho~td(mg kinh te suy thoai va I~m Socialist Economies ",... tham hl,Jt ngan sach hau het cac nLioc XHCN va gay ap ILJCIc;tmphat Me) ,')ng tin dyng Khi nen kinh te thLJChi~n tLJdo h6a gia ca va ty gia hoi doai, gia dau VaGtang len, d$c bi~t gia hang nh~p