Autonomous Vehicles and Impact on Cities LEEDS UNIVERSITY STELIOS RODOULIS Introduction What’s in a car? • The Big Auto Manufacturers’ approach: ABS, cruise control, hazard recognition, collision prevention, steering/parking assist, active lane keeping, blind-spot identification, etc • Google’s approach: ‘shooting for the moon’ • Incremental evolution VS Google’s disruptive approach Nomenclature • Autonomous Vehicles, Robocars (Brad Templeton), Driverless Cars, intelligent drive systems, Self-Driving Cars, Unmanned Ground Vehicles (MIRA) • “Driverless Car” = the new “Horseless Carriage” ? Levels of Automation MIRA LTD 10 Changes and Impacts of AV technology Safety • Human behaviour is a contributing factor in over 90% of road accidents AVs can mitigate against this trend by largely removing human decision making behind the wheel Economics • Economic cost of road accidents in 2010 in the US was $277billion • Lower operating costs • ‘Value of Time’ in transport economics and appraisal methods needs to be reconsidered • Changes in car ownership & better vehicle utilisation • The Sharing Economy and “Mobility as a Service” 10 Changes and Impacts of AV technology Smarter + Faster = Efficient • Smoother, faster and more predictable traffic flows = reduction in congestion Improved Quality of Life • New mobility opportunities regardless of age, physical or driving ability • Lower emissions (electric or combustion engine) due to the AV-controlled optimal energy utilisation and lighter vehicles Blind man sitting in the driver's seat of Google's self-driving Prius 10 Changes and Impacts of AV technology Road Capacity • AVs will run closer together, increasing highway / junction capacity • Road capacity is estimated to increase by a (conservative) factor of or • Real-time, data-driven traffic management • This would materially affect the way transport infrastructure is appraised and planned ‘Rush hour’ by Black Sheep Films (2014) 10 Changes and Impacts of AV technology Land Use Planning & improved urban realm • Singapore is already constructing a 200 hectare ‘Autonomous Transit Oriented Development’ at OneNorth • Blighted housing stock close to traffic, fumes, and noise may become more desirable and increase in value • De-cluttering of hard traffic management measures (e.g road signs, gantries) • Streetscaping and shared space schemes may become more common 10 Changes and Impacts of AV technology Parking • Cars with no drivers can park more closely together • Decreased demand for parking near the destination • City centre car parks: change in land use? 10 Changes and Impacts of AV technology 10 Changes and Impacts of AV technology Public Transport • Impact will vary according to density, provision, demand • AVs as an extension of public transport? • We must plan to avoid Transport Poverty Infrastructure investments • Increasing capacity on existing roads reduces the need for new road infrastructure 10 Urban Sprawl • More comfortable and potentially productive commuting = Urban Sprawl? • Road pricing can be used to alleviate/control urban sprawl The Challenges Planning • AVs impact will vary according to a city's age, size, morphology and existing transport provision Legislation and Liability • Insurance Market: why would you need to pay for insurance in a world with no accidents? • Who would take responsibility in an accident: the occupant, vehicle manufacturer or software company? • New methods of risk management will be required and the insurance industry will need to adapt to the technology The Challenges - Safety • The Trolley Problem: how will an AV choose between damaging itself and/or the people in it, or a child in its way? • Hardware or software failures and cyber-attack scenarios • Artificial Intelligence may provide some solutions The Challenges – Generational Issues • Generation Y is more interested in owning and using their latest smartphone, than driving the latest hot-hatch car or even getting a driving licence • Breakdown of traditional concepts of owning and driving cars • Driving as an activity: enjoyment, chore or inconvenience? The Challenges - Acceptability • Potential resistance to the technology by the ‘Top Gear’ demographic • Race Tracks & Motorsports can be one outlet for car enthusiasts who prefer control and like to drive ‘manually’ • People’s acceptability of driverless technology is likely to be gradual, becoming more positive as people or society experience the range of benefits Conclusion • Significant societal, economic and environmental benefits but also barriers to the deployment of AVs • The profile of AVs is promoted in the mainstream by Google et al, but it is largely ignored in current urban and transport planning thinking • Cities need to understand and incorporate AVs into their future visions, from today onwards Charging for AVs = a new smart urban management tool ? Charging for AVs = a new smart urban management tool ? Charging for AVs Impact on Traffic Volumes Public Transport Car Ownership Patterns Urban Structure Low Price Scenario High Price Scenario The price set for using or accessing an AV will have a direct impact on how cities experience the benefits (or disbenefits) of AVs What are the advantages and disadvantages of each pricing scenario? Charging for AVs = a new smart urban management tool ? Impact on Traffic Volumes Charging for AVs Low Price Scenario High Price Scenario Massive increase in car traffic (VKT), offset by improvement in ability of road network to handle it Price as a deterrent for km travelled or an incentive to change time of travel (e.g cheaper in off peak) Price to constrain car use Charging for AVs = a new smart urban management tool ? Impact on Traffic Volumes Public Transport Charging for AVs Low Price Scenario High Price Scenario Massive increase in car traffic (VKT), offset by improvement in ability of road network to handle it Price as a deterrent for km travelled or an incentive to change time of travel (e.g cheaper in off peak) Price to constrain car use AV technology used mainly to Public Transport subtraction Death lower fares for driverless of local bus networks, except on bus/shared taxi networks – through very dense transport corridors a reduction of operating costs Charging for AVs = a new smart urban management tool ? Impact on Traffic Volumes Public Transport Car Ownership Patterns Charging for AVs Low Price Scenario High Price Scenario Massive increase in car traffic (VKT), offset by improvement in ability of road network to handle it Price as a deterrent for km travelled or an incentive to change time of travel (e.g cheaper in off peak) Price to constrain car use AV technology used mainly to Public Transport subtraction Death lower fares for driverless of local bus networks, except on bus/shared taxi networks – through very dense transport corridors a reduction of operating costs Variety of car ownership models: outright ownership, on-demand hire Few people own an AV outright, (from a private or public operator), most share or hire on-demand car sharing Charging for AVs = a new smart urban management tool ? Impact on Traffic Volumes Public Transport Car Ownership Patterns Urban Structure Charging for AVs Low Price Scenario High Price Scenario Massive increase in car traffic (VKT), offset by improvement in ability of road network to handle it Price as a deterrent for km travelled or an incentive to change time of travel (e.g cheaper in off peak) Price to constrain car use AV technology used mainly to Public Transport subtraction Death lower fares for driverless of local bus networks, except on bus/shared taxi networks – through very dense transport corridors a reduction of operating costs Variety of car ownership models: outright ownership, on-demand hire Few people own an AV outright, (from a private or public operator), most share or hire on-demand car sharing People may be more inclined to travel farther distances Geographical decoupling of home / work location, resulting in urban sprawl and higher energy consumption Concentration of homes / workplaces leading to urban containment which may also constrain energy consumption Charging for AVs = a new smart urban management tool ? • Price of AVs must be balanced and ensure that transport is inclusive for all and avoid transport poverty • AV pricing has the potential to contribute or control urban sprawl • Cities will face many dilemmas regarding road capacity: • Allow more vehicles on the road OR reallocate road space to more sustainable transport modes, such as walking and cycling or other uses? • Will induced demand create need for more roads? • City authorities need to have a clear appreciation of what land is likely to become available (or not) and a strong vision/leadership for its re-use or management “…I THINK THERE'S A VISION HERE, A NEW TECHNOLOGY, AND I'M REALLY LOOKING FORWARD TO A TIME WHEN GENERATIONS AFTER US LOOK BACK AT US AND SAY HOW RIDICULOUS IT WAS THAT HUMANS WERE DRIVING CARS” SEBASTIAN THRUN (GOOGLE) Stelios Rodoulis stelios.rodoulis@jacobs.com www.jacobs.com | worldwide [...]... ownership, on- demand hire Few people own an AV outright, (from a private or public operator), most share or hire on- demand car sharing People may be more inclined to travel farther distances Geographical decoupling of home / work location, resulting in urban sprawl and higher energy consumption Concentration of homes / workplaces leading to urban containment which may also constrain energy consumption Charging... experience the range of benefits Conclusion • Significant societal, economic and environmental benefits but also barriers to the deployment of AVs • The profile of AVs is promoted in the mainstream by Google et al, but it is largely ignored in current urban and transport planning thinking • Cities need to understand and incorporate AVs into their future visions, from today onwards Charging for AVs = a new... AVs must be balanced and ensure that transport is inclusive for all and avoid transport poverty • AV pricing has the potential to contribute or control urban sprawl • Cities will face many dilemmas regarding road capacity: • Allow more vehicles on the road OR reallocate road space to more sustainable transport modes, such as walking and cycling or other uses? • Will induced demand create need for more... create need for more roads? • City authorities need to have a clear appreciation of what land is likely to become available (or not) and a strong vision/leadership for its re-use or management “…I THINK THERE'S A VISION HERE, A NEW TECHNOLOGY, AND I'M REALLY LOOKING FORWARD TO A TIME WHEN GENERATIONS AFTER US LOOK BACK AT US AND SAY HOW RIDICULOUS IT WAS THAT HUMANS WERE DRIVING CARS” SEBASTIAN THRUN... smartphone, than driving the latest hot-hatch car or even getting a driving licence • Breakdown of traditional concepts of owning and driving cars • Driving as an activity: enjoyment, chore or inconvenience? The Challenges - Acceptability • Potential resistance to the technology by the ‘Top Gear’ demographic • Race Tracks & Motorsports can be one outlet for car enthusiasts who prefer control and like...10 Changes and Impacts of AV technology 8 Public Transport • Impact will vary according to density, provision, demand • AVs as an extension of public transport? • We must plan to avoid Transport Poverty 9 Infrastructure investments • Increasing capacity on existing roads reduces the need for new road infrastructure 10 Urban Sprawl • More comfortable and potentially productive commuting... Charging for AVs Impact on Traffic Volumes Public Transport Car Ownership Patterns Urban Structure Low Price Scenario High Price Scenario The price set for using or accessing an AV will have a direct impact on how cities experience the benefits (or disbenefits) of AVs What are the advantages and disadvantages of each pricing scenario? Charging for AVs = a new smart urban management tool ? Impact on Traffic... commuting = Urban Sprawl? • Road pricing can be used to alleviate/control urban sprawl The Challenges Planning • AVs impact will vary according to a city's age, size, morphology and existing transport provision Legislation and Liability • Insurance Market: why would you need to pay for insurance in a world with no accidents? • Who would take responsibility in an accident: the occupant, vehicle manufacturer... required and the insurance industry will need to adapt to the technology The Challenges - Safety • The Trolley Problem: how will an AV choose between damaging itself and/ or the people in it, or a child in its way? • Hardware or software failures and cyber-attack scenarios • Artificial Intelligence may provide some solutions The Challenges – Generational Issues • Generation Y is more interested in owning and. .. dense transport corridors a reduction of operating costs Variety of car ownership models: outright ownership, on- demand hire Few people own an AV outright, (from a private or public operator), most share or hire on- demand car sharing Charging for AVs = a new smart urban management tool ? 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