Estimating distance decay: for the National Propensity to Cycle Tool (NPCT) Robin Lovelace, University of Leeds Talk at the Institute for Transport Studies (ITS) Slides: speakerdeck.com/robinlovelace I What is distance decay? Discovering distance decay Source: Lovelace (2014): my thesis Distance of trip != distance/yr Source: Lovelace (2014): my thesis Distance decay in active travel Data: derived from Iacono et el (2010) Distance decay: the formula p = f(d) Euclidean or route distance? Source: Lovelace (2014): my thesis Distance decay in the literature Source: Lovelace et al., forthecoming Tested functional forms Source: Martínez and Viegas (2013) DD functional forms Distance and mode dependence (England) Source: Lovelace (2014): my thesis Energy and travel mode Source: Lovelace (2014): my thesis III The uses of distance decay Uses of dd: a few ideas ● ● If we're to transition away from fossil fuels, we must use modes that are less energy intensive Distance decay for sustainable travel modes can tell us what future travel patterns must look like ● Characterising travel systems ● Especially relevant for active travel ● The National Propensity to Cycle Tool (NPCT) 'Spatial interaction models' Source: Lovelace et al (forthecoming), Geographical Analysis DD to characterise travel systems Modelling travel Source: Lovelace et al (2014) IV Wider context of distance decay Resulting report: national benefits Benefits of cycling nationwide See https://tinyurl.com/conversation-cycling Webtag estimates of benefit:cost https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/webtagtag-overview See https://tinyurl.com/conversation-cycling An open source policy planning tool (+ live demo!) DD in the NPCT Further work on distance decay ● The distance-decay of road traffic incidents? ● Its use to estimate non-work travel? ● Verification of dd parameters using Big Data Key references ● ● ● ● ● Iacono, M., Krizek, K J., & El-Geneidy, A (2010) Measuring non-motorized accessibility: issues, alternatives, and execution Journal of Transport Geography, 18(1), 133–140 doi:10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2009.02.002 Lovelace, R., Clarke, M., Cross, P., & Birkin, M (n.d.) Verification of big data for estimating retail flows: a comparison of three sources against model results Geographical Analysis Lovelace, R., Malleson, N., Harland, K., & Birkin, M (2014) Geotagged tweets to inform a spatial interaction model: a case study of museums Arxiv Working Paper Lovelace, R (2014) The energy costs of commuting: a spatial microsimulation approach University of Sheffield Retrieved from http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/5027/ Martínez, L M., & Viegas, J M (2013) A new approach to modelling distancedecay functions for accessibility assessment in transport studies Journal of Transport Geography, 26, 87–96 doi:10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2012.08.018 [...]... (2014): my thesis III The uses of distance decay Uses of dd: a few ideas ● ● If we're to transition away from fossil fuels, we must use modes that are less energy intensive Distance decay for sustainable travel modes can tell us what future travel patterns must look like ● Characterising travel systems ● Especially relevant for active travel ● The National Propensity to Cycle Tool (NPCT) 'Spatial interaction... (forthcoming) Linear model to the data Cubic polynomial models Log-square-root model II Why distance decay? Source: NPCT model Output (Leeds) Distance decay in everyday life Source: Lovelace (2014): my thesis Distance and energy use Distance and mode dependence (Sheffield) Distance and mode dependence (England) Source: Lovelace (2014): my thesis Energy and travel mode Source: Lovelace (2014): my thesis... https://tinyurl.com/conversation-cycling An open source policy planning tool (+ live demo!) DD in the NPCT Further work on distance decay ● The distance- decay of road traffic incidents? ● Its use to estimate non-work travel? ● Verification of dd parameters using Big Data Key references ● ● ● ● ● Iacono, M., Krizek, K J., & El-Geneidy, A (2010) Measuring non-motorized accessibility: issues, alternatives, and execution... for active travel ● The National Propensity to Cycle Tool (NPCT) 'Spatial interaction models' Source: Lovelace et al (forthecoming), Geographical Analysis DD to characterise travel systems Modelling travel Source: Lovelace et al (2014) IV Wider context of distance decay Resulting report: national benefits Benefits of cycling nationwide See https://tinyurl.com/conversation-cycling Webtag estimates of benefit:cost... data for estimating retail flows: a comparison of three sources against model results Geographical Analysis Lovelace, R., Malleson, N., Harland, K., & Birkin, M (2014) Geotagged tweets to inform a spatial interaction model: a case study of museums Arxiv Working Paper Lovelace, R (2014) The energy costs of commuting: a spatial microsimulation approach University of Sheffield Retrieved from http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/5027/... costs of commuting: a spatial microsimulation approach University of Sheffield Retrieved from http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/5027/ Martínez, L M., & Viegas, J M (2013) A new approach to modelling distancedecay functions for accessibility assessment in transport studies Journal of Transport Geography, 26, 87–96 doi:10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2012.08.018 ... Iacono et el (2010) Distance decay: the formula p = f(d) Euclidean or route distance? Source: Lovelace (2014): my thesis Distance decay in the literature Source: Lovelace et al., forthecoming Tested...I What is distance decay? Discovering distance decay Source: Lovelace (2014): my thesis Distance of trip != distance/ yr Source: Lovelace (2014): my thesis Distance decay in active travel... https://tinyurl.com/conversation-cycling An open source policy planning tool (+ live demo!) DD in the NPCT Further work on distance decay ● The distance- decay of road traffic incidents? ● Its use to estimate non-work travel? ● Verification