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Investment Project Analysis The Outline and Acknowledgement The Investment Project Analysis Course consists of 4 modules covering (1) Overview, (2) Market Analysis, (3) Technical Analysis, and (4) Financial Analysis, which are divided into 15 Sessions. These slide materials are prepared on the basis of the lecture’s working experience with UNIDO and teaching materials used in the technical cooperation projects and in the process of assisting in preparation of UNIDO Investment Project Preparation and Appraisal teaching materials. The lecture’s appreciation thus goes to UNIDO for having provided the lecture with extended experience in the field of investment project preparation and appraisal. Chiba Univ. N. Suzuki Module 1, Session 1: Overview Chiba Univ. N. Suzuki 1 Development Process Identification Preparation of pre-investment studies Investment opportunities Problem solving Government Policy Key elements: Market, Technical, Financial and Economic Analysis Appraisal Implementation Commercial Profitability National Economic Viability Detailed Engineering Implementation Chiba Univ. N. Suzuki Who are we? Chiba Univ. N. Suzuki 2 Project Development Cycle Support studies Identification Opportunity Studies No Feasibility Studies Pre-feasibility Studies yes No Appraisal & Decision No Yes Management Construction/ Supervision Engineering Chiba Univ. N. Suzuki Who does the work? Consultants Government officials Plant engineers Bankers Foreign JV companies Chiba Univ. N. Suzuki 3 Any Risks of Failure in pre-investment studies –examples A Steel Plant – miscalculates impurity of cokes A macadamia nuts plantation and roasting plant overestimated the international market demand. A traditional monumental building that neglect the authenticity of the cultural heritage A Bridge with an unnecessary shape Chiba Univ. N. Suzuki Cokes Plant Macadamia Nuts Chiba Univ. N. Suzuki 4 A Monumental Building A Bridge between S & L City Why do these project happen? Chiba Univ. N. Suzuki Pre-investment Studies Opportunity studies Market analysis Technical analysis Pre-feasibility studies Feasibility studies Financial and economic analysis Support studies: •Sub-sector studies •Technology studies •Location •Raw materials Chiba Univ. N. Suzuki 5 Characteristics of Opportunity study Refinement of project ideas Preliminary evaluation of alternative approaches Preliminary assessment of strength and weakness of the project idea. Sketchy, Forecasting and analyzing readily available information, Quick decision-making requirement. Chiba Univ. N. Suzuki Characteristics of Feasibility Study Clear project concept Comprehensive project design Reliable Information on markets and technology Quantified prediction of performance Defined capital structure Selection Criteria Chiba Univ. N. Suzuki 6 Target Precision of Pre-investment Studies +30 - Opportunity Study +20 - +10% Feasibility Study Pre-feasibility Study Chiba Univ. N. Suzuki Cost Range of Pre-investment Studies An example of a cost range for a large scale project: a proportion of the total investment costs – – – Opportunity studies: 0.1-0.3 % Pre-feasibility studies: 0.5-0.7 % Feasibility studies: 0.5 -1.0% No rules exist: See the examples of feasibility studies Chiba Univ. N. Suzuki 7 See you in the next class Chiba Univ. N. Suzuki Module 1, Session 2: Project Identification and Preparation Chiba Univ. N. Suzuki 8 ... these project happen? Chiba Univ N Suzuki Pre -investment Studies Opportunity studies Market analysis Technical analysis Pre-feasibility studies Feasibility studies Financial and economic analysis. .. Identification Preparation of pre -investment studies Investment opportunities Problem solving Government Policy Key elements: Market, Technical, Financial and Economic Analysis Appraisal Implementation... Characteristics of Opportunity study Refinement of project ideas Preliminary evaluation of alternative approaches Preliminary assessment of strength and weakness of the project idea Sketchy, Forecasting and