B O TR I H C KINH T TP.H - NGUY N V N NGH UT C TH TR NC T T NAM NG CH LU TP H N C S KINH T - B O TR I H C KINH T TP.H - NGUY N V N NGH UT C TH TR NC T T NAM NG CH LU CHUY N NG N C S KINH T :T CH - NG N H M S : 60340201 NG IH NG D N KHOA H C: PGS TS NGUY N NG TP H - NH i DANH M B ng 5.1: - NG BI t th N c n 5.2.3: ii DANH M TH S D NG TRONG N ic m i quan h gi n ut nc n doanh nghi p : T su t n : Market Capitalization of stocks over years ng n ng ch n ch s h u c t Nam u doanh nghi p t th iii U D-W GROWTH Durbin-Watson stat Th Durbin-Watson - T ng Leverage Short-term-debt N ng n h n Long-term-debt N n n LIQUID - TAX - Thu PROFIT - L i nhu n ROA Return on Assets ROE Return on Equity NPV Net present value SIZE - TA hi n t p Total assets T TANG - EBIT n nc Earnings before interest and taxes nh h vay STT Static trade-off theory POT Pecking Oder Theory VIF Variance inflation factors t tr t t Y u t sai WACC Weighted capital average cost of d ng v ng iv M CL C Danh m ng bi n: i Danh m th n: ii Danh m vi t t n: iii M cl c: iv N i dung: vi i thi 03 03 nh v u 03 u 03 1.4 Ph u 04 1.5 N 1.6 u 04 ng d ng c 1.7 K t c u b u 04 05 Th c tr ng c nc t t i Vi t n: 08 2.1 T l n c nc t t i Vi t Nam 08 10 tc 10 ic ac 2.2.3 Thuy t c nc n 12 nt ng) 13 2.2.4 Thuy t tr t t 2.2.5 Thuy ng) 14 u ch nh th 2.2.6 Thuy t h th ng qu 2.2.7 Thuy ng 15 17 i di n 18 c nghi 21 u th c nghi m ut ng 27 u: 34 v d li u 35 n 35 u 37 4 t qu t th u: 40 40 u t 44 47 48 49 50 50 51 : K t lu xu t gi u ti p theo: 67 5.1 K t lu n 67 5 68 xu t gi u ti p theo 68 u tham kh o 72 Ph l c 01: K t qu h i quy 74 Ph c l p c ph n cu u 77 vi - GI I THI 1.2 nh v u u 1.4 Ph u 1.5 N 1.6 u ng d ng c 1.7 K t c u GI I THI U : 1.1 ns ho ng doanh nghi p ng doanh nghi p u qu ho ng c doanh nghi p tb cv cs doanh nghi p c t n h p i kinh doanh m th ng nh p v n doanh nghi p nc c i v i doanh nghi p y ut nc Vi c nh ng, m ng c u n ng v n doanh nghi p ts cc n nh ch n t nh v Th c ti n c bi t c i n y ut thi v n n Mu n v doanh nghi p c n n 1.2 ng cho doanh nghi p s d ng v n m t ch hi u qu nh t Vi c a t ng y u t u nh nh ng y u t nh v t ty ng u: nc n gi t t i Vi 67 K T LU XU T GI NC NG V N DOANH NGHI P T TH NG VI T NAM: 5.1 K t lu n: u doanh nghi p ut t th ng ch nc Vi t Nam kho ng th i gian t n 2011 tv c ng c a nh ng y u t n ng ch ng th c nghi m v c u n t i Vi t Nam, ti m nh nc n c a 112 n ng y u t ng y u t ng th iv ic ng n doanh nghi p Vi t Nam Khi ch ng bi nc th C th bi n t ng n h y t ng n t th p 10% M nh c t nc n nhi v ys yn thuy ng doanh nghi p i v i th n ng ng Vi t Nam qu ng nhi u C vai (ROE - ROA) Qua k t qu y mu n c u doanh nghi p c n ph i d kho i nhu t nhi nt u t ng Trong h u h o n h p 68 t Vi t Nam r d ng n ng n h n nh m gi i quy ho n cho nhu c u v n, ch y thi u v cm nh m t c n h uh n tr p Vi t Nam v u, thi u nh ng d nghi pc nv n S li c s d ng cu c ch 112 doanh nghi p m 2007-2011, u t mang c y ut n ch t th y ut thu th p t ng ch t ch d ng l i y u ng GDP, l d ng v doanh nghi p h n ch d li doanh nghi p pc m ch so v i th c t t ng doanh nghi p l ch so v i th c t th cv k t qu ng Vi t Nam Th ng c nh tranh gay g ch ngu n v n c p ph i nh ng bi ph c v vi c s n xu i t nt 69 hi n Doanh nghi p ph i t n l c, ph c i thi n t nb nv th yt u ki n s n xu t kinh t nt nghi p kinh doanh ph c k t qu cao nh t s n xu t kinh pc d u, ng m u ki n s n c a m u cho doanh C c cho doanh th t, ngu ng: M t doanh nghi p c m cao s ,t c m i quan h t t v c th ng v ng bi doanh nghi p nh n h nh ng b t l i X p h gi t ch linh ho nm tm h t th p ph doanh nghi p u th i h p V i t t c nh ng l ph th ts n th ch nh ch ch ng doanh nghi p c n ng v n, t i quan nghi p 70 ph thu nv nt c m r ng c Doanh nghi p c c t t ng c p v nh s nd tr c ti t c v v ng tri n v tri n c a doanh nghi p doanh nghi p ng n c c l n bi i ch n ng thu nh ph n c ng c ni m tin c a c Vi t Nam th ng th p Khi m t doanh nghi p cho r m t l chi tr c t c th p, ng c a doanh nghi p c chi tr c t c cao, c ng h p thua l hay thi u v doanh nghi p d ng m v n t do, t bi ic hi i ro bi nhi bi c n r i ro kinh doanh R c ng thu nh p c a doanh nghi p thu c r t s d y ho ng ng, r ng th n ph m d ch v cung c p, hay kh h ng c a doanh nghi p ng c ng c t nm S d ng n vay ph ng a t ng doanh nghi p a ch n m t s s d t o ih un doanh nghi p it l n t l a ch doanh cao hay m t giai y ho ng cao hay m t t l iv n n n kinh t i ro kinh s u bi n ng Ti p t phi u, th th ng phi t p trung) ng v n (bao g m th u, th ng c ng t p trung, tv ng khu v ct 71 M r ng v n c t mv c, t n ngang ng v n khu v c lo ng nhu c u c a th ng: M r u, n phi u doanh nghi p th t doanh nghi p t tc ng v n T d n t t pc nv a c n i l ng d ng v n ti m 72 Ti ng Vi t: Lu ng n quy nh c nc t tai s giao d ch ch ng ih Nguy n Tr c Th ng a theo M Daiel Wrestbrook (2003- d li u b ng ph n m ng d y Fulbright Nguy n Vi t Hu n (2006), Gi u qu nc ng v p c ph n Vi t Nam, Lu ng Kinh T H Cools, Kees (1993), "C nghi t" Lu n l a ch n, m nghi m d a tr Ti n s Wiwattanakantang, Y., 1999 An empirical study on the determinants of the capital structure of Thai firms, Pacific-Basin Finance Journal 7,371-403 b y doanh nghi p" T -64 u t quy nh c chuy n ti p," T n n n kinh t -415 T 17- c hu , c t c c a u t quy nh c n t Pakistan C n c a n ", T -349 t c a doanh nghi p nh vi qu u s h u," T -360 Booth, L V Aivazian, A.n c u n" T -130 73 Modigliani, F a v n, doanh nghi p tc - 297 thu nh p doanh nghi p a v n; M t Correction," The American Economic Review, 53 (3): 433-443 Myers, S doanh nghi p N Majluf (1984), "doanh nghi p nh th ng tin" T - 222 tv c qua m t s ch ng t d li u Qu c t ?" T -1460 Shah, Atta u t quy doanh nghi p Titman, S n nh c n n Vi t Nam Review Tsyplakov, S (2005), "M ng c n," SSRN R.Zeitum, G.G Tian, Capital structure and corporate performance: Evidence from Jordan, Autralasian Accouting Business and Finance Journal, Vol 1, Issue 4/2007 D.Margaritis, M.Psillaki, Capital structure and firm efficiency, Journal of Business Finance and Accouting 34 (9) 2007 Wei Xu, Xiangzhen Xu, Shoufeng Zhang, An empirical study on relationship between corporation performance and capital structure, China- USA Business Review, Apr 2005 Abe de Jong,Rezaul Kabir,Thuy Thu Nguyen (2008),Capital Structure Around the World: The roles of firm- and country-specific determinants, Journal of Banking & FinanceVolume 32, Issue 9, September 2008, Pages 1954-1969 Optimal Debt Level, Working Paper, University of Pennsylvani 74 PH L C 01 K T QU H I QUY: B ng 4.2.1A: K t qu h i quy Dependent Variable: LEV1 Method: Least Squares Date: 08/10/12 Time: 22:13 Sample (adjusted): 448 Included observations: 433 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob C -0.433255 0.342198 -1.266094 0.2062 TANG 0.970690 0.049260 19.70545 0.0000 SIZE 0.053536 0.028725 1.863760 0.0630 TAX 0.478708 0.131931 3.628477 0.0003 GROWTH 0.015564 0.016098 0.966826 0.3342 LIQUID -0.028828 0.007564 -3.811371 0.0002 ROA -1.478405 0.227768 -6.490825 0.0000 ROE 0.682753 0.109754 6.220760 0.0000 R-squared 0.592602 Mean dependent var 0.471585 Adjusted R-squared 0.584915 S.D dependent var 0.336307 S.E of regression 0.216673 Akaike info criterion -0.200289 Sum squared resid 19.90560 Schwarz criterion -0.115678 Log likelihood 52.36257 Hannan-Quinn criter -0.166888 F-statistic 77.09378 Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 2.011376 75 B ng 4.2.1B: K t qu h i quy Dependent Variable: LEV2 Method: Least Squares Date: 08/10/12 Time: 22:17 Sample (adjusted): 448 Included observations: 433 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob C 0.559876 0.375997 1.489046 0.1372 TANG 0.851183 0.054161 15.71591 0.0000 SIZE -0.036057 0.031570 -1.142129 0.2540 TAX 0.632716 0.145628 4.344734 0.0000 GROWTH -0.005482 0.017796 -0.308071 0.7582 LIQUID -0.036599 0.008362 -4.376701 0.0000 ROA -0.808956 0.250803 -3.225463 0.0014 ROE 0.453035 0.120858 3.748483 0.0002 R-squared 0.500293 Mean dependent var 0.363495 AdjustedR-squared 0.490865 S.D dependent var 0.334484 S.E of regression 0.238667 Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid 24.15179 Schwarz criterion 0.077680 Log likelihood 10.50068 Hannan-Quinn criter 0.026469 F-statistic 53.06225 Durbin-Watson stat 1.977670 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 \ -0.006932 76 B ng 4.2.1C: K t qu h i quy Dependent Variable: LEV3 Method: Least Squares Date: 08/10/12 Time: 22:20 Sample (adjusted): 448 Included observations: 433 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob C -0.886087 0.139905 -6.333488 0.0000 TANG 0.120719 0.019599 6.159399 0.0000 SIZE 0.080352 0.011741 6.843614 0.0000 TAX -0.152444 0.052754 -2.889695 0.0041 GROWTH 0.021544 0.006402 3.365448 0.0008 LIQUID 0.005110 0.003034 1.684229 0.0929 ROA -0.634704 0.092081 -6.892905 0.0000 ROE 0.231995 0.044458 5.218267 0.0000 R-squared 0.617546 Mean dependent var 0.105468 Adjusted R-squared 0.610330 S.D dependent var 0.141163 S.E of regression 0.088119 Akaike info criterion -1.999693 Sum squared resid 3.292337 Schwarz criterion -1.915081 Log likelihood 441.9334 Hannan-Quinn criter -1.966292 F-statistic 85.57876 Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 2.007895 77 PH L C 02 C NG VI T NAM S STT PH D NG TRONG doanh nghi T TH U: 01 c ph n AGD 02 c ph n th y s n Mekong AAM 03 ty c ph n c ph n xu t nh p kh u th y s n B n Tre ABT 04 c ph n xu t nh p kh u th y s n C u Long An Giang ACL 05 c ph n th y s n An Giang AGF 06 c ph n Nam Vi t ANV 07 c ph n An Pha ASP 08 c ph n BCI 09 c ph n BHS 10 c ph n B o Minh BMI 11 c ph n beton BT6 12 c ph n nhi 13 c ph n nh BMP 14 c ph n BMC 15 c ph n 16 c ph n Bibica 17 c ph n a BTP i- d ch v B BTT BBC thu t TP.HCM CII c ph n t Cotec CLG 19 c ph n ng Thu n CTI 20 c ph n t 21 c ph n 22 c ph n 18 C t p CMC m ng COTEC CMG truy n th ng CMT CTD 78 23 c ph n c ph m C u Long DCT 24 c ph n xu t nh p kh u y t DOMESCO DMC 25 c ph n DPR 26 c ph n 27 c ph n 28 c ph n 29 c ph n doanh nghi p DHA s30 c ph n DHG 31 c ph n 32 c ph n k ngh 33 c ph n 34 c ph n 35 c ph n d ch v a 36 c ph n xu t nh p kh y s n B n Tre 37 c ph n FPT FPT 38 c ph n Full Power FPC 39 c ph n ngo FDC 40 c ph n ch bi n g GDT 41 c ph n ch bi n g Thu n An GTA 42 c ph n xu t kh GMC 43 c ph n HMC 44 c ph n d ch v HAX 45 c ph n 46 c ph n t HLG 47 c ph n HPG 48 c ph n t HSG 49 c ph n v 50 c ph n v n t ng DRC m Sen DSN nc DVP c H u Giang n Quang DQC DTT p s c DRH t xanh a ng h D2D nb DXG FBT HBC HIS HTV 79 51 c ph n 52 c ph n HAG 53 c ph n t HAP 54 c ph n 55 HDC i HAS c ph HT1 56 c ph ITC 57 c ph 58 c ph 59 c ph 60 c ph n xu t kh 61 c ph KDC 62 c ph n Long H u LHG 63 c ph n ch bi 64 c ph 65 c ph n b t gi t LIX 66 c ph 67 c ph 68 c ph n Cavico Vi 69 c ph 70 c ph 71 c ph 72 C a- c ph m OPC OPC o ITA n KDH i KHA t kh u Long An t li LAF ng LIX Long Giang - c ph LBM LGL c ph m Mekophar MKP ng t Nam MCV NVN y B y T n h t n NBB NTL b ng s PPI 73 c ph n xu t nh p kh u Petrolimex PIT 74 c ph n v n t PJT 75 c ph 76 c ph ng th y Petrolimex PNC n PNJ 80 77 c ph 78 c ph 79 c ph n nhi 80 c ph n pin c quy Mi n Nam 81 T ng 82 83 POM n PTC n Ph L i PPC PAC g ty c ph n d ch v t ng h p d c ph n s n xu T PET n c ph PHT ch v khoan d PVD 84 c ph n ga Petrolimex PGC 85 c ph n nh a R RDP 86 c ph n l nh REE 87 c ph ng s SC5 88 c ph SJS 89 c ph SZL 90 c ph 91 c ph n v n t 92 c ph i SMC SMC 93 c ph n d u th c v ng An TAC 94 c ph n th 95 c ph n d t may - 96 c ph 97 c ph n TIE TIE 98 c ph n t TLG 99 c ph n kho v n giao nh n ngo TMS 100 c ph n cao su TMC 101 c ph 102 Doanh nghi p c ph v nt SGT SBC TBC - c TCM TDH Nh t TRC IDICO UIC 81 103 c ph n Vinafco VFC 104 c ph 105 c ph VIS 106 c ph n du l ch golf Vi t Nam VNG 107 c ph n s a Vi t Nam VNM 108 c ph n container Vi t Nam VSC 109 c ph VSG 110 c ph n v n t 111 c ph n V VPH 112 c ph n Vincom VIC i Vi u Vitaco VID VTO ... 2.2.1 doanh nghi p hai ng t 11 n Vg = V doanh nghi p doanh nghi p doanh nghi p Vg = Vu + T.D T doanh nghi p doanh nghi p doanh nghi p D: T T: T T.D: K doanh nghi p 12 doanh nghi p doanh nghi... GI I THI U : 1.1 ns ho ng doanh nghi p ng doanh nghi p u qu ho ng c doanh nghi p tb cv cs doanh nghi p c t n h p i kinh doanh m th ng nh p v n doanh nghi p nc c i v i doanh nghi p y ut nc Vi c... th doanh nghi p n : t m 14 doanh nghi p doanh nghi p Th ba 15 2.2.4 Thuy t tr t t ng ( tin b ng): doanh nghi p doanh nghi p ng 2.2.5 Thuy u ch nh th ng: 16 McDonald g doanh nghi p ng 17 so T doanh