B GIÁO D C VÀ ÀO T O TR NG I H C KINH T TP.HCM NG TH M L PHÂN TÍCH TÁC NG C A CÁC NHÂN T KINH T V MÔ N VN-INDEX TRÊN TH TR NG CH NG KHOÁN VI T NAM Chuyên ngành : Tài – Ngân hàng Mã s : 60.31.12 LU N V N TH C S KINH T NG IH NG D N KHOA H C: PGS.TS BÙI KIM Y N TP H CHÍ MINH – N M 2013 M CL C Trang L Danh m c vi t t t Danh m th Danh m c b ng bi u GI I THI TÀI Lý ch tài 01 M c tiêu nghiên c u .01 ng nghiên c u 02 Ph m vi nghiên c u 02 nghiên c u .02 K t c u c tài 03 T ng quan v ng c a nhân t kinh t phi u th 1.1 T ng quan v th n ch s giá c ng ch ng khoán ng ch ng khoán 04 1.1.1 Khái ni m b n ch t th ng ch ng khoán .04 1.1.2 Ch trị c a th ng ch ng khốn 05 1.1.3 Phân lo i th ng ch ng khoán 07 1.2 Ch s giá c phi u 07 1.2.1 Khái ni m v ch s giá c phi u .07 1.2.2 ch s giá c phi u 07 1.2.3 s giá c phi u 07 1.3 ng c a nhân t kinh t 1.3.1 c lý thuy t v nhân t kinh t n ch s giá c phi u 11 11 1.3.1.1 L m phát 11 1.3.1.2 Lãi su t 12 1.3.1.3 T giá 13 1.3.1.4 Cung ti n 14 1.3.2 ng c a nhân t kinh t n ch s giá c phi u 15 1.3.2.1 ng c a l m n ch s giá c phi u 15 1.3.2.2 ng c a lãi su n ch s giá c phi u 16 1.3.2.3 ng c a t 1.3.2.4 ng c a cung ti n ch s giá c phi u .17 n ch s giá c phi u 20 1.4 Nghiên c u th gi i v ng c a nhân t kinh t n th ng ch ng khoán 21 1.4.2 Nghiên c u th gi i v ng c a nhân t kinh t n th ng ch ng khoán 21 1.4.3 Nghiên c u th gi i v ng c a nhân t kinh t ng ch ng khốn có s d ng mơ hình hi u ch nh sai s n th VECM) ki m ng liên k t 22 27 ng c a nhân t kinh t th n VN-Index ng ch ng khoán Vi t Nam 2.1 Ch s giá c phi u t i Vi t Nam_VN-Index .28 2.2 Di n bi n c a VN-Index 2.3 Th c tr ng nt ng c a nhân t kinh t 2.3.1 ng c a l 2.3.2 ng c a lãi su t 2.3.3 ng c a t giá VND/USD 2.3.4 ng c a cung ti n m r ng (M2) 2.4 Ki nh s n VN-Index .35 n ch s VN-Index .35 n ch s VN-Index 36 n ch s VN-Index 39 n ch s VN-Index 40 ng c a nhân t kinh t 2.4.1 2.4.1.1 n tháng 12/2012 .30 n VN-Index 42 .42 n 42 2.4.1.2 .44 2.4.2 Phân tích 44 2.4.3 K 46 2.4.3.1 Ki nh nghi 2.4.3.2 46 tr t 2.4.3.3 Ki 48 ng liên k t 49 2.4.3.4 Mơ hình h i quy hi u ch nh sai s 2.4.3.5 (VECM) 56 60 62 3: Gi i pháp h n ch s mô nh m ng b ng c a nhân t kinh t nh phát tri n th ng ch ng khoán Vi t Nam 3.1 M t s khuy n ngh c th v sách kinh t 3.1.1 .64 u hành sách ti n t m i th ng ch ng khoán 65 u hành sách lãi su su t chung theo th 3.1.3 Nâng cao hi u qu ng linh ho n m t m c lãi ng .65 u hành sách t giá VND/USD 67 3.1.4 Ki m soát l m phát k p th i hi u qu 68 3.2 Nh ng gi i pháp c th n i t i th 3.2.1 Nâng cao ch ng ch ng khoán Vi t Nam 70 ng hàng hóa tính ch s VN-Index 70 3.2.2 Xây d ng m i b ch s giá c phi u HOSE 70 nv nc phi u 71 c qu n lý, giám sát công b thông tin .73 3.2.5 Phát tri 3.2.6 Tri n khai s n ph m ch ch c 74 phòng ng a r i ro 75 c ngh nghi p c a công ty ch ng khoán 77 K t lu 79 K t lu n chung 80 Tài li u tham kh o Ph l c 1: Ki nh tính d ng Ph l Ph l c 3: K t qu ki Ph l c 4: Ki tr t nh nguyên t c Pantula ng liên k t Ph l c 5: Mơ hình hi u ch nh sai s Ph l c 6: Phân tích phân r DANH M C CH VI T T T BCTC:Báo cáo tài CSTK: Chính sách tài khóa CSTT: Chính sách ti n t CTCK: Cơng ty ch ng khốn DN: Doanh nghi p DNNY: Doanh nghi p niêm y t DTBB: D tr b t bu c HNX: S giao d ch ch ng khoán Hà N i HNX-Index: Ch s giá c phi u c c niêm y t t i S giao d ch ch ng khoán Hà N i HOSE: S giao d ch ch ng khoán Thành ph H Chí Minh c i PP: Phillips- nh nghi n v Phillips Perron TCTD : T ch c tín d ng TTCK: Th UBCKNN: ng ch ng khốn y ban ch VAR: Vector Autoregressive model- c h i quy VECM: Vector Error Correction Model- Mơ hình hi u ch nh sai s DANH M C TH Trang Bi 2.1: Ch s VN-Index n 2002-2005 30 Bi 2.2: Ch s VN-Index n 2006-2007 31 Bi 2.3: Ch s VN-Index n 2008-2012 32 Bi 2.4: L m phát Ch s VN-Index 36 Bi 2.5: Lãi su t Ch s VN-Index 36 Bi 2.6: T giá VND/USD Ch s VN-Index .38 Bi 2.7: Cung ti n Ch s VN-Index .39 DANH M C B NG BI U Trang B ng 2.1: -Index 41 B ng 2.2: B ng tóm t t bi n s mơ hình nghiên c u 43 B ng 2.3: B ng th ng kê mô t d li u bi n nghiên c u 45 B ng 2.4: K t qu ki B ng 2.5 tr t nh nghi 47 n 48 B ng 2.6: Ki nh Trace Test 52 B ng 2.7: Ki nh Maximum Eigenvalue .52 B ng 2.8 ng liên k t 53 B ng 2.9: K t qu ch y mơ hình VECM .58 B ng 2.10: K t qu ch a VN-Index 60 GI I THI TÀI Lý ch tài: ng ch ng khoán Vi t Nam có nh th ng nóng nh t vào v i VN-Index t 1.170,6 kh ng ho c l p vào ngày 12/03/2007 m Tuy nhiên, t n kinh t toàn c u b n cho kinh t Vi u v i nhi u thách th c, nhi u thông tin tiêu c c t y u t kinh t s t gi m, a th 24/02/2009 t th nh, ng y ra, th ng ch ng khoán liên t c c l p v i VN-Index n ch s m vào ngày ng quanh m c 350 - o s hoài nghi li u r ng nhân t kinh t khoán Vi t Nam nói chung Th th ng ch ng v n r t quan tr ng cho n n kinh t , t o ng s n xu t kinh doanh làm c c n ph i có th ng ch ng khoán lành m nh n n nhân t kinh t có nh ng gi i pháp thích h p nh ng t t cho th Chính th tác gi ch n nghiên c kinh t trì m r ng ho t u ph n TTCK kinh t ng ch ng ch s VN-Index nói riêng có m i liên quan? u ki n cho Chính Ph , cá nhân, doanh nghi p có v nh, m Chính ng tài Phân tích n VN-Index th u hành sách ng c a nhân t ng ch ng khoán Vi t Nam M c tiêu nghiên c u: M c tiêu nghiên c u c a lu mô lên ch s VN-Index làm rõ s ki ng c a nhân t kinh t nh m i quan h gi a nhân t kinh t mô ch s VN-Index ng n dài h n T vi c m i quan h c a nhân t kinh t y th nh b n v ng c gi m thi cr nh ch s VN-Index khuy n ngh m t s gi i pháp v sách kinh t phát tri n ng, ki ng th ng ch ng khoán Vi t Nam ch c ng khoán ng nghiên c u Th ng ch ng khoán Vi c th hi n rõ nét qua hai sàn giao d S giao d ch ch ng khoán Thành ph H Chí Minh (HOSE) v i ch s VN-Index S giao d ch ch ng khoán Hà N i (HNX) v i ch s HNX-Index, nhiên HOSE sàn giao d ch có l ch s i, có kh ng giá tr giao d ch l nghiên c u tác gi ch ch n ch s VN-Index i nhân t kinh t nghiên c u m i mô D a vào nh ng nghiên c c th c hi n n c có n n kinh t m i c, Malaysia, Nam, tác gi n kinh t c a Vi t n nhân t kinh t di n cho y u t kinh t Tóm l l m phát, t giá, cung ti n, lãi su t a Vi t Nam th c hi n nghiên c u ng nghiên c u c a lu h i m: VN-Index, l m phát, t giá a VND/USD, cung ti n M2, lãi su t ti n g i ng n h n, lãi su t trái phi u ph Ph m vi nghiên c u: p TTCK Vi t Nam, vào ngày 31/12/2001 th có 2.908 tài kho u có nhi u bi t HOSE VN-Index m i b t ng Bên c n ch v vi c thu th p d li c m c tiêu nghiên c u, lu - Ch s VN-Index ng m i p trung vào ph m vi nghiên c nt n tháng 12/2012 - Các y u t kinh t nt l l m phát, t giá h t n tháng 12/2012 bao g m: t a VND/USD, cung ti n M2, lãi su t ti n g i ng n h n, lãi su t trái phi u ph u: Tác gi s d ch s VN-Index y u t kinh t c thu th p t tháng 1/2002 ng kê mô t bi xem xét s bi ng c a ng d a nh ng s li u có liên n tháng 12/2012 3 74.46506 35.19275 53.88162 29.79707 85.69704 42.91525 40.20813 20.26184 20.07273* 15.49471 40.87008 25.87211 18.88722 9.164546 0.191156 3.841466 18.03182 12.51798 Ghi chú: * Ch r ng l PH L C 4: KI u tiên xu t hi n gi thuy t H0 không b bác b NG LIÊN K T Date: 08/25/13 Time: 22:06 Sample (adjusted): 14 132 Included observations: 119 after adjustments Trend assumption: Linear deterministic trend Series: LNVNI LNCPI LNEXR M2 DR TBR Lags interval (in first differences): to 12 Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Trace) Hypothesize d No of CE(s) Eigenvalue None * At most * At most * At most * At most * At most 0.613940 0.481691 0.383565 0.247315 0.153861 0.001605 Trace Statistic 0.05 Critical Value Prob.** 302.9189 189.6591 111.4542 53.88162 20.07273 0.191156 95.75366 69.81889 47.85613 29.79707 15.49471 3.841466 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0095 0.6620 Trace test indicates cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level * denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level **MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Maximum Eigenvalue) Hypothesize d Max-Eigen No of Eigenvalue Statistic CE(s) None * 0.613940 113.2598 0.05 Critical Value Prob.** 40.07757 0.0000 At most * At most * At most * At most * At most 0.481691 0.383565 0.247315 0.153861 0.001605 78.20490 57.57257 33.80889 19.88158 0.191156 33.87687 27.58434 21.13162 14.26460 3.841466 0.0000 0.0000 0.0005 0.0058 0.6620 Max-eigenvalue test indicates cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level * denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level **MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values Unrestricted Cointegrating Coefficients (normalized by b'*S11*b=I): LNVNI -4.712415 -6.663316 14.98551 -7.816450 2.822470 -2.348061 LNCPI 11.37405 -13.03292 -26.15966 42.69572 16.33297 17.13594 LNEXR -58.08115 2.932463 38.60463 -55.96512 -58.03966 -10.49589 M2 0.408963 0.333354 -0.581695 -0.342493 -0.680169 -0.135291 DR 1.135980 4.011364 -3.416565 -0.139452 -1.636660 -2.517146 TBR 2.001664 -0.663243 3.260511 -2.746049 0.040703 0.238000 -0.001258 -0.000180 0.001139 0.164975 -0.103448 0.089334 -0.002793 -0.000106 -0.001000 -4.73E-05 2.32E-05 -3.73E-05 0.065414 -0.034168 0.046520 -0.003965 0.083127 0.003762 Unrestricted Adjustment Coefficients (alpha): D(LNVNI) 0.004394 D(LNCPI) -0.000698 D(LNEXR) 0.003219 D(M2) -0.452976 D(DR) 0.025044 D(TBR) -0.102460 0.004072 -0.002240 -0.000468 0.191398 -0.102041 -0.234623 -0.028509 -0.000112 0.001280 -0.132174 -0.012701 -0.109001 Cointegrating Equation(s): Log likelihood 907.9355 Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses) LNVNI LNCPI LNEXR M2 DR 1.000000 -2.413635 12.32514 -0.086784 -0.241061 (1.14345) (2.24173) (0.02292) (0.11273) Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses) D(LNVNI) -0.020706 TBR -0.424764 (0.08385) (0.03317) 0.003288 (0.00304) D(LNEXR) -0.015169 (0.00293) D(M2) 2.134611 (0.74206) D(DR) -0.118018 (0.21023) D(TBR) 0.482836 (0.34261) D(LNCPI) Cointegrating Equation(s): Log likelihood 947.0380 Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses) LNVNI LNCPI LNEXR M2 DR 1.000000 0.000000 5.273940 -0.066481 -0.440439 (0.98673) (0.00863) (0.03811) 0.000000 1.000000 -2.921401 0.008412 -0.082605 (0.45284) (0.00396) (0.01749) Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses) D(LNVNI) -0.047840 -0.003096 (0.05723) (0.12131) D(LNCPI) 0.018215 0.021258 (0.00451) (0.00956) D(LNEXR) -0.012050 0.042715 (0.00504) (0.01067) D(M2) 0.859267 -7.646644 (1.26389) (2.67885) D(DR) 0.561914 1.614747 (0.34227) (0.72546) D(TBR) 2.046203 1.892431 (0.52018) (1.10253) Cointegrating Equation(s): Log likelihood 975.8243 Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in TBR -0.135153 (0.05446) 0.119989 (0.02500) parentheses) LNVNI 1.000000 LNCPI 0.000000 LNEXR 0.000000 0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 1.000000 M2 -0.037839 (0.00700) -0.007454 (0.00428) -0.005431 (0.00162) DR -0.394279 (0.02569) -0.108174 (0.01569) -0.008752 (0.00595) TBR 0.245088 (0.03541) -0.090638 (0.02163) -0.072098 (0.00820) Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses) LNVNI LNCPI LNEXR M2 DR 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 -0.449309 (0.04762) 0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 -0.119015 (0.02064) 0.000000 0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 -0.016651 (0.00884) 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 1.000000 -1.454332 (1.02689) TBR 0.305457 (0.04906) -0.078746 (0.02126) -0.063434 (0.00911) 1.595418 (1.05776) Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses) D(LNVNI) -0.475068 0.742701 -1.343857 (0.09519) (0.17495) (0.38938) D(LNCPI) 0.016539 0.024184 0.029642 (0.00943) (0.01733) (0.03858) D(LNEXR) 0.007139 0.009218 -0.138902 (0.01001) (0.01840) (0.04096) D(M2) -1.121427 -4.189018 21.76811 (2.62108) (4.81731) (10.7220) D(DR) 0.371584 1.946998 -2.244135 (0.71490) (1.31393) (2.92443) D(TBR) 0.412762 4.743869 1.055044 (1.05166) (1.93285) (4.30198) Cointegrating Equation(s): Log likelihood 992.7287 Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses) D(LNVNI) -0.465237 0.689002 -1.273470 (0.10464) (0.29535) (0.49880) 0.020169 (0.00478) D(LNCPI) 0.017947 (0.01036) D(LNEXR) -0.001760 (0.01054) D(M2) -2.410946 (2.84580) D(DR) 1.180177 (0.73113) D(TBR) -0.285510 (1.12942) 0.016490 (0.02925) 0.057829 (0.02976) 2.854708 (8.03244) -2.469771 (2.06367) 8.558034 (3.18785) 0.039726 (0.04939) -0.202621 (0.05026) 12.53527 (13.5654) 3.545322 (3.48518) -3.944526 (5.38371) Cointegrating Equation(s): Log likelihood -0.000905 (0.00047) 2.56E-05 (0.00048) -0.101065 (0.12991) 0.019044 (0.03338) -0.087306 (0.05156) 1002.670 Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses) LNVNI LNCPI LNEXR M2 DR 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 1.000000 Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses) D(LNVNI) -0.473121 0.643384 -1.111364 (0.10552) (0.30821) (0.59290) D(LNCPI) 0.015126 0.000162 0.097749 (0.01009) (0.02947) (0.05669) D(LNEXR) -0.001695 0.058208 -0.203969 (0.01066) (0.03114) (0.05991) D(M2) -2.226317 3.923115 8.738651 (2.87184) (8.38813) (16.1363) D(DR) 1.311479 -1.709958 0.845303 (0.72755) (2.12503) (4.08795) D(TBR) -0.050887 9.915742 -8.769177 (1.11764) (3.26442) (6.27979) 0.022069 (0.00608) -0.000225 (0.00058) 9.79E-06 (0.00061) -0.145558 (0.16552) -0.012597 (0.04193) -0.143846 (0.06442) TBR 2.824557 (0.68172) 0.588522 (0.17714) 0.029921 (0.02234) 9.749282 (1.86074) 5.606605 (1.54740) 0.123477 (0.03133) -0.007735 (0.00300) -0.002793 (0.00317) 0.574709 (0.85262) -0.399193 (0.21600) -0.833649 (0.33181) PH L C 5: MƠ HÌNH HI U CH NH SAI S Vector Error Correction Estimates Date: 08/25/13 Time: 22:13 Sample (adjusted): 14 132 Included observations: 119 after adjustments Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ] Cointegrating Eq: CointEq1 CointEq2 CointEq3 CointEq4 CointEq5 LNVNI(-1) 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 LNCPI(-1) 0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 LNEXR(-1) 0.000000 0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 M2(-1) 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 DR(-1) 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 1.000000 TBR(-1) 2.824557 (0.71420) [ 3.95484] 0.588522 (0.18558) [ 3.17124] 0.029921 9.749282 5.606605 (0.02341) (1.94939) (1.62113) [ 1.27825] [ 5.00119] [ 3.45846] C -27.64190 -9.391327 -9.977957 -102.6086 -52.18058 Error Correction: D(LNVNI) D(LNCPI) D(LNEXR) D(M2) D(DR) D(TBR) CointEq1 -0.473121 (0.11055) [-4.27978] 0.015126 (0.01057) [ 1.43109] -0.001695 -2.226317 1.311479 -0.050887 (0.01117) (3.00867) (0.76221) (1.17089) [-0.15172] [-0.73997] [ 1.72063] [-0.04346] CointEq2 0.643384 (0.32289) [ 1.99257] 0.000162 (0.03087) [ 0.00525] 0.058208 3.923115 -1.709958 9.915742 (0.03263) (8.78779) (2.22628) (3.41995) [ 1.78410] [ 0.44643] [-0.76808] [ 2.89938] CointEq3 -1.111364 (0.62115) [-1.78921] 0.097749 (0.05939) [ 1.64597] -0.203969 8.738651 0.845303 -8.769177 (0.06276) (16.9052) (4.28272) (6.57899) [-3.24983] [ 0.51692] [ 0.19738] [-1.33291] CointEq4 0.022069 (0.00637) [ 3.46362] -0.000225 (0.00061) [-0.36997] 9.79E-06 -0.145558 -0.012597 -0.143846 (0.00064) (0.17341) (0.04393) (0.06749) [ 0.01520] [-0.83939] [-0.28675] [-2.13151] CointEq5 0.123477 (0.03282) [ 3.76219] -0.007735 (0.00314) [-2.46504] -0.002793 0.574709 -0.399193 -0.833649 (0.00332) (0.89324) (0.22629) (0.34762) [-0.84219] [ 0.64340] [-1.76406] [-2.39813] D(LNVNI(-1)) 0.558274 (0.13322) [ 4.19056] 0.000258 (0.01274) [ 0.02028] -0.017411 5.902288 0.135189 2.671408 (0.01346) (3.62576) (0.91854) (1.41104) [-1.29339] [ 1.62788] [ 0.14718] [ 1.89322] D(LNVNI(-2)) 0.154459 (0.14907) [ 1.03614] -0.024970 (0.01425) [-1.75195] 0.006326 9.701602 -2.487278 -2.876025 (0.01506) (4.05715) (1.02783) (1.57892) [ 0.42001] [ 2.39124] [-2.41993] [-1.82151] D(LNVNI(-3)) -0.042233 (0.14996) [-0.28164] -0.009839 (0.01434) [-0.68628] -0.012741 -1.404910 -0.315321 4.205204 (0.01515) (4.08123) (1.03393) (1.58830) [-0.84086] [-0.34424] [-0.30497] [ 2.64762] D(LNVNI(-4)) 0.203539 (0.16430) [ 1.23884] -0.006433 (0.01571) [-0.40954] -0.015290 5.488365 -3.160749 -2.724565 (0.01660) (4.47153) (1.13281) (1.74019) [-0.92102] [ 1.22740] [-2.79019] [-1.56567] D(LNVNI(-5)) 0.188216 (0.16467) [ 1.14302] -0.042414 (0.01574) [-2.69405] -0.010989 3.347332 1.403465 0.110031 (0.01664) (4.48153) (1.13534) (1.74408) [-0.66047] [ 0.74692] [ 1.23616] [ 0.06309] D(LNVNI(-6)) 0.130038 (0.15772) [ 0.82451] 0.005423 (0.01508) [ 0.35961] 0.024837 5.238309 -3.847582 -0.376248 (0.01594) (4.29238) (1.08742) (1.67047) [ 1.55854] [ 1.22037] [-3.53826] [-0.22523] D(LNVNI(-7)) 0.099471 (0.15858) [ 0.62726] -0.029958 (0.01516) [-1.97590] -0.011771 -3.955997 1.262402 0.220977 (0.01602) (4.31592) (1.09339) (1.67963) [-0.73462] [-0.91661] [ 1.15458] [ 0.13156] D(LNVNI(-8)) 0.423462 (0.15637) [ 2.70801] -0.018439 (0.01495) [-1.23335] 0.019788 5.934594 -1.414704 -1.616481 (0.01580) (4.25586) (1.07817) (1.65626) [ 1.25238] [ 1.39445] [-1.31213] [-0.97598] D(LNVNI(-9)) 0.294312 (0.17893) [ 1.64481] -0.035898 (0.01711) [-2.09835] 0.012451 2.016642 -0.263001 -3.117203 (0.01808) (4.86985) (1.23372) (1.89520) [ 0.68869] [ 0.41411] [-0.21318] [-1.64479] D(LNVNI(-10)) 0.216369 (0.16306) [ 1.32689] -0.019298 (0.01559) [-1.23781] 0.001306 1.222720 -0.540882 0.890087 (0.01648) (4.43796) (1.12430) (1.72712) [ 0.07925] [ 0.27551] [-0.48108] [ 0.51536] D(LNVNI(-11)) 0.222810 (0.15240) [ 1.46196] -0.000950 (0.01457) [-0.06519] 0.015472 -4.354025 -0.597383 0.904938 (0.01540) (4.14784) (1.05081) (1.61422) [ 1.00473] [-1.04971] [-0.56850] [ 0.56060] D(LNVNI(-12)) 0.091859 (0.15310) [ 0.59998] -0.017318 (0.01464) [-1.18309] -0.003161 2.236989 -0.072241 -2.825904 (0.01547) (4.16688) (1.05563) (1.62163) [-0.20433] [ 0.53685] [-0.06843] [-1.74263] D(LNCPI(-1)) -0.268792 (1.18576) [-0.22668] 0.051514 (0.11337) [ 0.45439] 0.009645 27.93597 5.019013 9.835226 (0.11981) (32.2717) (8.17564) (12.5592) [ 0.08050] [ 0.86565] [ 0.61390] [ 0.78311] D(LNCPI(-2)) -1.591361 (1.21296) [-1.31197] -0.057632 (0.11597) [-0.49696] 0.029353 -5.464051 15.81641 19.04671 (0.12256) (33.0117) (8.36313) (12.8472) [ 0.23949] [-0.16552] [ 1.89121] [ 1.48256] D(LNCPI(-3)) 0.209511 (1.34040) [ 0.15631] 0.182943 (0.12815) [ 1.42753] 0.041891 -34.07188 2.501153 31.45044 (0.13544) (36.4803) (9.24184) (14.1971) [ 0.30930] [-0.93398] [ 0.27063] [ 2.21528] D(LNCPI(-4)) -2.863854 (1.30595) [-2.19293] -0.017109 (0.12486) [-0.13702] -0.137116 -24.01802 13.64808 9.781682 (0.13196) (35.5426) (9.00430) (13.8322) [-1.03909] [-0.67575] [ 1.51573] [ 0.70717] D(LNCPI(-5)) -1.935659 (1.43319) [-1.35060] 0.216516 (0.13703) [ 1.58012] -0.048452 -40.35837 8.680034 29.35352 (0.14481) (39.0056) (9.88161) (15.1799) [-0.33458] [-1.03468] [ 0.87840] [ 1.93372] D(LNCPI(-6)) -5.804225 (1.34703) [-4.30889] 0.052994 (0.12879) [ 0.41148] -0.223390 -0.598552 -3.956821 3.355747 (0.13611) (36.6608) (9.28758) (14.2673) [-1.64126] [-0.01633] [-0.42603] [ 0.23521] D(LNCPI(-7)) -1.995487 (1.76722) [-1.12917] 0.028692 (0.16896) [ 0.16981] -0.147750 -9.077449 7.724884 21.23269 (0.17857) (48.0965) (12.1847) (18.7177) [-0.82742] [-0.18873] [ 0.63398] [ 1.13436] D(LNCPI(-8)) -2.348873 (1.58852) [-1.47866] 0.098096 (0.15188) [ 0.64589] -0.039651 73.81807 -19.78336 -0.154142 (0.16051) (43.2331) (10.9526) (16.8251) [-0.24703] [ 1.70744] [-1.80627] [-0.00916] D(LNCPI(-9)) -6.239674 (1.57119) [-3.97129] -0.112348 (0.15022) [-0.74789] 0.046679 -24.26048 7.468610 25.79391 (0.15876) (42.7615) (10.8331) (16.6416) [ 0.29402] [-0.56734] [ 0.68942] [ 1.54997] D(LNCPI(-10)) -1.243935 (1.83210) [-0.67897] 0.172316 (0.17516) [ 0.98374] -0.054874 70.92699 -6.459700 -7.134519 (0.18512) (49.8625) (12.6321) (19.4050) [-0.29642] [ 1.42245] [-0.51137] [-0.36766] D(LNCPI(-11)) -3.915196 (1.54747) [-2.53006] -0.227645 (0.14795) [-1.53864] 0.074901 -16.52111 -2.321960 36.54313 (0.15636) (42.1159) (10.6696) (16.3903) [ 0.47902] [-0.39228] [-0.21762] [ 2.22956] D(LNCPI(-12)) -1.076402 (1.60530) [-0.67053] 0.811403 (0.15348) [ 5.28667] -0.055270 -12.02780 -5.330389 27.23841 (0.16221) (43.6899) (11.0683) (17.0028) [-0.34074] [-0.27530] [-0.48159] [ 1.60199] D(LNEXR(-1)) -0.133326 (1.34897) [-0.09884] -0.037724 (0.12897) [-0.29249] -0.254207 -7.171118 -11.82766 24.39357 (0.13630) (36.7135) (9.30092) (14.2878) [-1.86500] [-0.19533] [-1.27167] [ 1.70730] D(LNEXR(-2)) 0.224952 (1.35332) [ 0.16622] 0.108731 (0.12939) [ 0.84034] -0.311734 64.25756 -3.453599 15.65484 (0.13674) (36.8318) (9.33090) (14.3339) [-2.27970] [ 1.74462] [-0.37013] [ 1.09216] D(LNEXR(-3)) 0.846058 (1.28896) [ 0.65639] 0.101534 (0.12324) [ 0.82390] -0.044207 33.89313 -13.29858 9.874232 (0.13024) (35.0803) (8.88718) (13.6522) [-0.33942] [ 0.96616] [-1.49638] [ 0.72327] D(LNEXR(-4)) 1.692567 (1.15433) [ 1.46627] -0.059872 (0.11036) [-0.54249] -0.159138 84.17465 -4.455073 19.31392 (0.11664) (31.4163) (7.95895) (12.2263) [-1.36437] [ 2.67933] [-0.55976] [ 1.57970] D(LNEXR(-5)) 1.763008 (1.21872) [ 1.44660] -0.091864 (0.11652) [-0.78839] 0.073285 66.31441 -7.620263 25.99684 (0.12314) (33.1688) (8.40291) (12.9083) [ 0.59512] [ 1.99930] [-0.90686] [ 2.01396] D(LNEXR(-6)) 2.473873 (1.32373) [ 1.86887] 0.065687 (0.12656) [ 0.51902] -0.117177 107.0390 -3.487438 29.26180 (0.13375) (36.0265) (9.12687) (14.0205) [-0.87607] [ 2.97112] [-0.38211] [ 2.08708] D(LNEXR(-7)) 2.968890 (1.38200) [ 2.14826] 0.052675 (0.13213) [ 0.39866] -0.266622 -39.05664 -4.607803 29.40167 (0.13964) (37.6123) (9.52863) (14.6376) [-1.90933] [-1.03840] [-0.48357] [ 2.00864] D(LNEXR(-8)) 1.228327 (1.45720) [ 0.84294] 0.039579 (0.13932) [ 0.28409] -0.333482 22.71394 3.252485 29.20628 (0.14724) (39.6591) (10.0472) (15.4342) [-2.26488] [ 0.57273] [ 0.32372] [ 1.89231] D(LNEXR(-9)) 2.374416 (1.42063) [ 1.67139] 0.105882 (0.13582) [ 0.77955] -0.214475 51.45302 12.63988 20.96418 (0.14354) (38.6637) (9.79498) (15.0468) [-1.49414] [ 1.33078] [ 1.29044] [ 1.39327] D(LNEXR(-10)) 2.148119 (1.22574) [ 1.75251] 0.026217 (0.11719) [ 0.22371] -0.149916 40.82758 6.242854 7.078193 (0.12385) (33.3596) (8.45125) (12.9826) [-1.21044] [ 1.22386] [ 0.73869] [ 0.54521] D(LNEXR(-11)) 1.657178 (1.12153) [ 1.47761] 0.223137 (0.10723) [ 2.08097] -0.015296 -30.68964 11.55837 32.01950 (0.11332) (30.5235) (7.73275) (11.8788) [-0.13498] [-1.00544] [ 1.49473] [ 2.69551] D(LNEXR(-12)) 2.088812 (1.18202) [ 1.76715] 0.175175 (0.11301) [ 1.55006] 0.011398 -36.68853 14.95032 30.42649 (0.11944) (32.1699) (8.14985) (12.5196) [ 0.09543] [-1.14046] [ 1.83443] [ 2.43031] D(M2(-1)) -0.016859 (0.00610) [-2.76198] -0.000279 (0.00058) [-0.47739] -0.000103 0.040915 -0.014254 0.144530 (0.00062) (0.16612) (0.04209) (0.06465) [-0.16653] [ 0.24629] [-0.33870] [ 2.23557] D(M2(-2)) -0.015589 (0.00680) [-2.29111] 5.81E-05 (0.00065) [ 0.08938] 0.000977 0.098511 -0.021061 0.139848 (0.00069) (0.18519) (0.04691) (0.07207) [ 1.42134] [ 0.53196] [-0.44892] [ 1.94047] D(M2(-3)) -0.009271 (0.00648) [-1.43029] 9.52E-05 (0.00062) [ 0.15359] 0.000724 0.064074 -0.040854 0.160835 (0.00065) (0.17641) (0.04469) (0.06866) [ 1.10575] [ 0.36321] [-0.91412] [ 2.34266] D(M2(-4)) -0.010754 (0.00583) [-1.84340] 0.000461 (0.00056) [ 0.82680] 0.000994 0.046248 -0.029127 0.184677 (0.00059) (0.15877) (0.04022) (0.06179) [ 1.68549] [ 0.29128] [-0.72413] [ 2.98880] D(M2(-5)) -0.013123 (0.00596) [-2.20305] 0.000916 (0.00057) [ 1.60760] 0.000739 -0.054503 0.036613 0.107019 (0.00060) (0.16211) (0.04107) (0.06309) [ 1.22863] [-0.33620] [ 0.89149] [ 1.69629] D(M2(-6)) -0.010613 (0.00568) [-1.86715] 0.001033 (0.00054) [ 1.90111] 0.001053 0.135120 -0.011515 0.049935 (0.00057) (0.15470) (0.03919) (0.06021) [ 1.83385] [ 0.87343] [-0.29382] [ 0.82941] D(M2(-7)) -0.015000 (0.00510) [-2.94396] 0.000887 (0.00049) [ 1.82156] -6.93E-06 -0.074444 0.005509 0.065291 (0.00051) (0.13867) (0.03513) (0.05397) [-0.01346] [-0.53683] [ 0.15681] [ 1.20982] D(M2(-8)) -0.006579 (0.00507) [-1.29691] 0.000945 (0.00048) [ 1.94782] 2.09E-05 -0.054499 0.010028 0.057955 (0.00051) (0.13805) (0.03497) (0.05373) [ 0.04076] [-0.39477] [ 0.28674] [ 1.07871] D(M2(-9)) -0.009942 (0.00441) [-2.25706] -0.000134 (0.00042) [-0.31876] -5.46E-05 -0.025565 0.019555 0.026937 (0.00045) (0.11989) (0.03037) (0.04666) [-0.12263] [-0.21324] [ 0.64386] [ 0.57735] D(M2(-10)) -0.008225 (0.00481) [-1.70868] 0.000601 (0.00046) [ 1.30538] 0.000549 -0.199033 0.011722 0.034596 (0.00049) (0.13100) (0.03319) (0.05098) [ 1.12872] [-1.51931] [ 0.35320] [ 0.67858] D(M2(-11)) -0.010525 (0.00436) [-2.41160] 0.000337 (0.00042) [ 0.80844] 0.000502 -0.014360 0.014984 0.097978 (0.00044) (0.11878) (0.03009) (0.04623) [ 1.13842] [-0.12089] [ 0.49792] [ 2.11947] D(M2(-12)) -0.006469 (0.00430) [-1.50445] 0.000273 (0.00041) [ 0.66435] 0.001104 -0.655769 0.016490 0.083613 (0.00043) (0.11703) (0.02965) (0.04555) [ 2.54127] [-5.60338] [ 0.55618] [ 1.83583] D(DR(-1)) -0.115204 (0.03302) [-3.48933] 0.006021 (0.00316) [ 1.90737] -0.002469 -1.068849 0.518348 0.496077 (0.00334) (0.89856) (0.22764) (0.34969) [-0.74008] [-1.18951] [ 2.27705] [ 1.41860] D(DR(-2)) -0.057446 (0.03736) [-1.53761] 0.005293 (0.00357) [ 1.48192] 0.006474 0.886200 -0.193789 0.961994 (0.00378) (1.01681) (0.25760) (0.39571) [ 1.71507] [ 0.87155] [-0.75229] [ 2.43104] D(DR(-3)) -0.100085 (0.03341) [-2.99571] 0.006739 (0.00319) [ 2.10974] 0.008184 0.054072 0.478302 0.615378 (0.00338) (0.90927) (0.23035) (0.35386) [ 2.42421] [ 0.05947] [ 2.07640] [ 1.73904] D(DR(-4)) -0.039491 (0.03690) [-1.07024] 0.007708 (0.00353) [ 2.18494] 0.009476 -0.313610 0.168661 0.809131 (0.00373) (1.00424) (0.25441) (0.39082) [ 2.54155] [-0.31229] [ 0.66295] [ 2.07034] D(DR(-5)) -0.005362 (0.03317) [-0.16166] 0.005172 (0.00317) [ 1.63098] 0.004725 -0.745764 0.048023 0.622356 (0.00335) (0.90266) (0.22868) (0.35129) [ 1.40990] [-0.82618] [ 0.21000] [ 1.77164] D(DR(-6)) -0.046907 (0.02857) [-1.64202] 0.000876 (0.00273) [ 0.32061] 0.001815 -1.790578 0.208086 0.972394 (0.00289) (0.77748) (0.19696) (0.30257) [ 0.62867] [-2.30306] [ 1.05646] [ 3.21377] D(DR(-7)) 0.010348 (0.03066) [ 0.33748] 0.008356 (0.00293) [ 2.85036] -0.001070 -0.958165 -0.277896 0.126021 (0.00310) (0.83448) (0.21141) (0.32475) [-0.34534] [-1.14822] [-1.31452] [ 0.38805] D(DR(-8)) -0.057715 (0.02908) [-1.98486] 0.001246 (0.00278) [ 0.44830] 0.001992 0.070735 0.275487 0.249899 (0.00294) (0.79138) (0.20049) (0.30798) [ 0.67796] [ 0.08938] [ 1.37409] [ 0.81141] D(DR(-9)) 0.021655 (0.03256) [ 0.66504] 0.006622 (0.00311) [ 2.12710] 0.008084 0.737570 -0.198924 -0.180003 (0.00329) (0.88622) (0.22451) (0.34489) [ 2.45697] [ 0.83226] [-0.88602] [-0.52191] D(DR(-10)) -0.008208 (0.02857) [-0.28728] 0.000119 (0.00273) [ 0.04341] 0.011208 -0.732084 0.250463 -0.044063 (0.00289) (0.77756) (0.19699) (0.30260) [ 3.88233] [-0.94152] [ 1.27148] [-0.14561] D(DR(-11)) 0.010634 (0.02393) [ 0.44446] 0.002955 (0.00229) [ 1.29163] 0.009964 -0.661354 -0.038667 -0.307048 (0.00242) (0.65115) (0.16496) (0.25341) [ 4.12147] [-1.01567] [-0.23440] [-1.21167] D(DR(-12)) -0.003508 (0.02753) [-0.12743] 4.51E-05 (0.00263) [ 0.01715] 0.004961 -0.648007 0.074376 0.105149 (0.00278) (0.74912) (0.18978) (0.29154) [ 1.78367] [-0.86502] [ 0.39190] [ 0.36067] D(TBR(-1)) 0.070916 (0.02536) [ 2.79694] -0.001335 (0.00242) [-0.55063] -0.007366 1.920614 -0.267431 0.334769 (0.00256) (0.69006) (0.17482) (0.26855) [-2.87496] [ 2.78325] [-1.52976] [ 1.24657] D(TBR(-2)) 0.039269 (0.02457) [ 1.59827] 0.000394 (0.00235) [ 0.16758] -0.005908 1.663479 -0.407964 -0.020767 (0.00248) (0.66869) (0.16940) (0.26023) [-2.37982] [ 2.48768] [-2.40823] [-0.07980] D(TBR(-3)) 0.054580 (0.02241) [ 2.43544] -0.002163 (0.00214) [-1.00943] -0.007091 1.437341 -0.372663 0.066611 (0.00226) (0.60993) (0.15452) (0.23737) [-3.13155] [ 2.35658] [-2.41178] [ 0.28062] D(TBR(-4)) 0.039973 (0.02314) [ 1.72740] -0.001721 (0.00221) [-0.77769] -0.007139 2.153594 -0.433983 -0.285478 (0.00234) (0.62979) (0.15955) (0.24510) [-3.05320] [ 3.41953] [-2.72004] [-1.16476] D(TBR(-5)) 0.005359 (0.02316) [ 0.23138] -0.002034 (0.00221) [-0.91866] -0.003710 1.705478 -0.087540 0.417706 (0.00234) (0.63033) (0.15969) (0.24530) [-1.58528] [ 2.70571] [-0.54820] [ 1.70281] D(TBR(-6)) 0.023121 (0.02624) [ 0.88110] 0.000242 (0.00251) [ 0.09653] -0.003071 1.932433 -0.289480 0.083088 (0.00265) (0.71418) (0.18093) (0.27794) [-1.15835] [ 2.70582] [-1.59997] [ 0.29894] D(TBR(-7)) -0.002817 (0.02276) [-0.12375] -0.001639 (0.00218) [-0.75296] -0.005434 0.933624 0.089954 0.579101 (0.00230) (0.61951) (0.15695) (0.24109) [-2.36265] [ 1.50704] [ 0.57316] [ 2.40196] D(TBR(-8)) 0.019731 (0.02559) [ 0.77117] 0.000807 (0.00245) [ 0.32980] -0.007289 1.708338 -0.280952 0.482597 (0.00259) (0.69636) (0.17641) (0.27100) [-2.81932] [ 2.45324] [-1.59257] [ 1.78078] D(TBR(-9)) -0.016002 (0.02503) [-0.63920] -0.002637 (0.00239) [-1.10188] -0.010016 0.215701 -0.031036 0.713448 (0.00253) (0.68133) (0.17261) (0.26515) [-3.95975] [ 0.31659] [-0.17981] [ 2.69068] D(TBR(-10)) 0.001754 (0.02971) [ 0.05904] 0.001607 (0.00284) [ 0.56557] -0.012076 0.749536 -0.342734 0.116982 (0.00300) (0.80868) (0.20487) (0.31472) [-4.02231] [ 0.92686] [-1.67293] [ 0.37170] D(TBR(-11)) -0.036149 (0.02471) [-1.46294] -0.000285 (0.00236) [-0.12082] -0.006724 1.056882 0.081898 0.309220 (0.00250) (0.67249) (0.17037) (0.26171) [-2.69310] [ 1.57159] [ 0.48071] [ 1.18151] D(TBR(-12)) 0.021386 (0.02694) [ 0.79399] 0.001340 (0.00258) [ 0.52032] -0.003281 1.443588 -0.115952 0.169056 (0.00272) (0.73306) (0.18571) (0.28529) [-1.20558] [ 1.96926] [-0.62436] [ 0.59258] C 0.177634 (0.07387) [ 2.40471] -0.003354 (0.00706) [-0.47493] 0.010632 -1.373443 -0.096970 -2.491741 (0.00746) (2.01041) (0.50931) (0.78239) [ 1.42442] [-0.68316] [-0.19039] [-3.18476] R-squared 0.848627 Adj R-squared 0.564342 Sum sq resids 0.165518 S.E equation 0.063538 F-statistic 2.985123 Log likelihood 222.5253 Akaike AIC -2.428997 Schwarz SC -0.607387 Mean dependent 0.006766 S.D dependent 0.096263 0.845033 0.553998 0.001513 0.006075 2.903546 501.8769 -7.123982 -5.302372 0.008127 0.009096 0.805946 0.841186 0.896924 0.857290 0.441503 0.542925 0.703341 0.589275 0.001690 122.6006 7.868525 18.56835 0.006420 1.729237 0.438081 0.672969 2.211445 2.820305 4.633288 3.198659 495.2977 -170.6273 -7.236643 -58.32263 -7.013407 4.178610 1.432549 2.291137 -5.191797 6.000220 3.254159 4.112747 0.002519 0.063091 0.010588 0.016387 0.008591 2.557766 0.804315 1.050072 Determinant resid covariance (dof adj.) Determinant resid covariance Log likelihood Akaike information criterion Schwarz criterion 1.16E-12 1.93E-15 1002.670 -8.481841 3.148441 PH L Variance Decomposition of LNVNI: Perio S.E LNVNI LNCPI d 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 0.063538 0.097753 0.125126 0.149786 0.172625 0.205338 0.244707 0.280892 0.309052 0.340849 0.377617 0.419195 0.461607 0.507312 0.556047 0.612044 0.671402 0.725817 0.779308 0.830047 0.880396 0.928825 0.974280 1.022043 1.069269 1.115879 1.159622 1.199055 1.233981 1.264946 1.289993 100.0000 97.61378 78.60631 57.90036 44.16793 31.22255 21.98843 16.70469 14.09439 12.85843 12.61147 12.97895 12.19543 11.02208 9.601701 8.485679 7.726349 7.187463 6.969197 6.994031 7.228339 7.105069 6.676844 6.276748 5.915781 5.618889 5.430429 5.323055 5.339631 5.407645 5.417459 0.000000 0.117960 0.144282 0.297886 0.386422 1.200289 5.250125 8.287788 10.99022 14.54414 16.78488 18.16321 18.30191 18.08042 17.70215 16.50446 15.57237 15.07579 14.82671 14.30444 13.46620 12.83041 12.46311 11.93051 11.25846 10.54465 9.939416 9.378558 8.873586 8.444898 8.122146 LNEXR M2 DR TBR 0.000000 0.545799 2.138817 3.467801 3.289122 3.024858 3.585963 4.314405 6.531129 8.108908 9.250843 10.27122 11.25368 12.52011 12.76066 12.74668 12.55111 12.57742 12.36115 12.04445 11.64205 11.10302 10.57496 9.854870 9.117795 8.429640 7.826461 7.320379 6.912269 6.579353 6.338227 0.000000 0.919136 4.091684 9.686017 13.09967 11.73595 8.941811 7.101285 6.190866 5.346465 4.790243 4.194396 3.708662 3.167013 2.719761 2.313504 1.982966 1.792340 1.684383 1.722030 1.868895 2.155075 2.406512 2.809007 3.401123 4.103148 4.767672 5.415840 6.086101 6.803086 7.572023 0.000000 0.070404 6.312632 16.04058 25.06914 37.89732 47.29914 52.48722 52.83864 51.41905 50.25396 48.92227 50.01536 51.45271 54.08285 57.30999 59.88044 60.97021 61.40484 61.77972 62.45384 63.17993 64.07261 65.02216 65.97352 66.74189 66.93353 66.76128 66.43816 66.11652 65.79541 0.000000 0.732920 8.706274 12.60736 13.98771 14.91903 12.93454 11.10461 9.354765 7.723014 6.308603 5.469953 4.524964 3.757664 3.132882 2.639690 2.286760 2.396783 2.753726 3.155326 3.340675 3.626494 3.805958 4.106706 4.333318 4.561792 5.102489 5.800890 6.350251 6.648500 6.754732 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 1.309922 1.328923 1.345199 1.357819 1.366622 1.371578 1.374198 1.375808 1.376807 1.378153 1.380677 1.385059 1.390287 1.396664 1.405627 1.416309 1.427886 1.441822 1.457434 1.475108 1.495174 1.516167 1.538951 1.564217 1.591673 1.622609 1.657428 1.696817 1.742191 5.384463 5.319734 5.272188 5.225072 5.183362 5.163596 5.163730 5.215777 5.270640 5.313111 5.342275 5.365188 5.407046 5.394423 5.344252 5.300390 5.255409 5.190812 5.116485 5.020764 4.916947 4.815800 4.702028 4.581687 4.474604 4.383485 4.307872 4.237836 4.151089 7.881236 7.672817 7.495268 7.357010 7.270919 7.239363 7.226596 7.224992 7.238911 7.262241 7.304842 7.377449 7.475833 7.620614 7.821432 8.054393 8.293633 8.558612 8.887092 9.275867 9.671064 10.05345 10.45873 10.90689 11.30563 11.60260 11.81481 12.02400 12.25560 6.157399 5.997426 5.861390 5.758776 5.687799 5.647252 5.634479 5.635705 5.665703 5.741832 5.900736 6.168990 6.470111 6.847522 7.430093 8.170749 8.950525 9.851617 10.80200 11.81437 12.93685 13.97520 15.01270 16.06914 16.99414 17.82900 18.51649 19.02079 19.40692 8.256841 8.813857 9.221565 9.566739 9.790844 9.914265 9.991856 10.03237 10.03745 10.01806 10.00717 10.00989 10.02163 10.06151 10.11315 10.16093 10.19541 10.22703 10.29525 10.38402 10.41863 10.36618 10.23307 10.03395 9.780175 9.462302 9.090573 8.680660 8.234988 65.55165 65.42424 65.45976 65.49371 65.47903 65.42173 65.34489 65.24646 65.15178 65.04043 64.82974 64.44494 63.97554 63.42151 62.65146 61.72590 60.72943 59.56554 58.30602 56.94141 55.53822 54.32571 53.18852 52.13568 51.36764 50.83887 50.58710 50.59453 50.78151 6.768410 6.771925 6.689832 6.598694 6.588041 6.613790 6.638454 6.644697 6.635507 6.624324 6.615237 6.633536 6.649846 6.654416 6.639614 6.587633 6.575592 6.606389 6.593157 6.563576 6.518285 6.463657 6.404959 6.272649 6.077805 5.883748 5.683159 5.442182 5.169888 ... n c a VN-Index VN-Index tác gi chia n: VN-Index VN-Index VN-Index VN-Index Tháng 06 cao VN-Index VN-Index VN-Index , VN-Index 34 tháng 3,4 5/2009 K VN-Index VN-Index c sang , VN-Index có nh t... tốn c a tác gi VN-Index hai : tháng 2/200 6VN-Index tháng , VN-Index trung 36 3/2007- VN-Index trung -tháng VN-Index Ngoài VN-Index - 0,67%/tháng, VN-Index -thá VN-Index - VN- Index VN-Index VN-Index... nghiên c u tác gi ch ch n ch s VN-Index i nhân t kinh t nghiên c u m i mô D a vào nh ng nghiên c c th c hi n n c có n n kinh t m i c, Malaysia, Nam, tác gi n kinh t c a Vi t n nhân t kinh t di