Chuyên ngành: Tài Ngân hàng L ng c a r i ro tái tài tr v n quy c a doanh nghi p Vi c hi n Tôi v n d ng ki n th iv i c, tài li u tham kh o q trình tìm hi u, ng d hồn thành lu li u th ng kê trung th c, n i dung k t qu nghiên c u c a lu b t c nghiên c n th ng l nh n m gi ti n m t c công b m th t Tác gi lu Nguy n Xuân Vang M CL C C U 1.1 Lý ch tài 1.2 M c tiêu nghiên c u 1.3 Câu h i nghiên c u 1.4 u 1.4.1 Mơ hình phân tích 1.4.2 Ngu n d li u 1.5 tài 1.6 K t c tài LÝ LU N V R I RO TÁI TÀI TR N M GI VÀ QUY NH TI N M T 2.1 R i ro tái tài tr quy nh n m gi ti n m t 2.1.1 R i ro tái tài tr 2.1.2 M i quan h gi a r i ro tái tài tr ti n m t n m gi 2.2 m gi ti n m t 2.2.1 ch 2.2.2 a 2.2.3 i di n 2.3 Lý thuy t v quy 2.3.1 Thuy nh n m gi ti n m t c a doanh nghi p 10 i 10 2.3.2 Thuy t tr t t phân h ng 12 2.4 Các nhân t ki m soát 2.4.1 n quy nh n m gi ti n m t 13 13 2.4.2 Qui mô công ty 13 2.4.3 L i nhu n 14 2.4.4 Tài s n kho n thay th 14 2.4.5 Chi tiêu v n 15 2.4.6 y tài 15 2.4.7 u ki n th ng v n 16 2.4.8 Chi tr c t c 16 U 17 3.1 ng 17 3.2 Xây d ng h 18 3.2.1 Mơ hình n m gi ti n m t 18 3.2.1.1 Bi n ph thu c 18 3.2.1.2 Các bi n gi i thích 18 3.2.2 Mơ hình k h n n 22 3.2.2.1 Bi n ph thu c 22 3.2.2.2 Các bi n gi i thích 23 3.3 M u nghiên c u ngu n d li u 26 3.3.1 M u nghiên c u 26 3.3.2 Ngu n s li u 27 T QU PHÂN TÍCH 28 4.1 N t i h n 28 4.1.1 N t i h n c a doanh nghi p Vi t Nam t 2008 2013 28 4.1.2 Các y u t nghi p Vi t Nam t 2008 ns i c a n t i h n doanh 2013 30 4.1.2.1 Phân tích th ng kê mơ t 31 4.1.2.2 ng 35 4.2 N m gi ti n m t 40 4.2.1 N m gi ti n m t c a doanh nghi p Vi t Nam t 2008 4.2.2 N t i h n y u t 2013 40 ns i c a ti n m t n m gi doanh nghi p Vi t Nam t 2008 2013 41 4.2.2.1 Phân tích th ng kê mô t 41 4.2.2.2 ng qua mơ hình h n 49 T LU N 60 DANH M C TÀI LI U THAM KH O PH L C DANH M C B NG B ng 2.1 Tóm t t bi n mơ hình B ng 4.1 T ng h p k t qu h i quy mơ hình n B ng 4.2 T ng h p k t qu mơ hình ti n m t B ng 4.3 T ng h p k t qu mơ hình ti n m t thay th bi n IRT(-1) B ng 4.4 T ng h p k t qu phân tích nh n DANH M C HÌNH Hình 4.1 Bi t l n T ng m u Hình 4.2 Bi t l n Theo ngành Hình 4.3 Bi c u trúc k h n t l n Hình 4.4 Bi giá tr th Hình 4.5 Bi t l ti n m Hình 4.6 Bi t l n Bi t l n n h n t l ti n m Bi t l y t l ti n m Bi t l giá tr th Bi t l n phát hành ròng t l ti n m Bi t l n v n luân chuy n ròng t l ti n m t qua Bi thu nh p ho Hình 4.7 Hình 4.8 Hình 4.9 Hình 4.10 Hình 4.11 Hình 4.12 nh ng / giá tr s sách t l n n h n t l ti n m nh n T ng m u Theo ngành ng / giá tr s sách t l ti n m t qua ng t l ti n m DANH M C PH L C Ph l c Xây d ng mơ hình n Ph l c 1A B ng ma tr n h s Ph l c 1B Ki nh l a ch n gi a random effect fixed effect Ph l c 1C Ki nh hi Ph l c 1D Ki nh hi Ph l c 1E Ki nh lo i b t bi n Ph l c Mơ hình n Ph l c 2A Mơ hình n (2009-2012) Ph l c 2B Mơ hình n (2008-2013) Ph l c Xây d ng mơ hình ti n m t Ph l c 3A B ng ma tr n h s Ph l c 3B Ki ng t i nh l a ch n gi a random effect fixed effect Ph l c 3C Ki nh hi ng t Ph l c 3D Ki nh hi Ph l c 3E Ki nh lo i b t bi n Ph l c Mơ hình ti n m Ph l c 4A Mơ hình ti n m t (2009-2012) Ph l c 4B Mơ hình ti n m t (2008-2013) Ph l c Mơ hình ti n m t thay th bi n IRT(-1) Ph l c 5A Mơ hình ti n m t (2009-2012) Ph l c 5B Mô hình ti n m t (2008-2013) i thay th bi n IRT(-1) C Bài nghiên c u phân tích nhân t n quy ti n m t c a doanh nghi p Vi ro tái tài tr tr ng vào ng c a r i ng ti n m t n m gi c a công ty Theo Harford, Klasa Maxwell (2014), r i ro tái tài tr nghi p n m gi , chi ph M nh n m gi iv n 28% s nm ng ti n m t doanh ng ti n m t c a doanh nghi p t cơng c giúp doanh nghi p phịng ng a r i ro Tuy nhiên, k t qu phân tích m u nghiên c u doanh nghi p niêm y t Hose t 2013 cho th y nh tìm th y m i c chi u r t th p gi a r i ro tái tài tr v n m gi Các k t qu phân tích ng th i c ng c cho k t lu n r tr ti n m t c a doanh nghi p Vi t Nam su nh ng quy nh ph n ng v i tình hình ho n n 2008 - 2013 ch ng c a doanh nghi n ng n h n m t n m gi ng ti n m t công ty n m t chi ng kh c qu n tr ti n m t ng th i công c giao d ch, tài s n kho n cơng c phịng ng a r i ro T khóa: R i ro tái tài tr , ti n m t n m gi 1.1 Lý ch U tài N m gi ti n m t m t nh ng v luân chuy n c c qu n tr v n t nhi u s quan tâm c a nhà nghiên c u Các nhà qu n tr tài quy nh n m gi ti n m t xu t phát t giao d ch, giúp công ty ti t ki c chi phí h ph ngu n v n bên ho c t vi c chuy cho vi c toán kho n n ng xuyên ti p c n v i i tài s n không b ng ti n ph c v nh n ti n m t nhi u s ch m gi cn mb có th h ty n m gi nhi u ti n m t s gi m ng th i c vi n c a, n u xem ti n m t công c ng qu n tr r i ro cơng x y ki t qu tài chính, giúp h ch c toán kho n n ng ng ng th i t o ni m tin cho nhà cung c p v n bên giúp h d c tái tài tr v n c n m gi tài s n tài khác, bên c nh nh ng l i ích mang l i t vi c n m gi ti n m t doanh nghi c th i b kho n chi phí, p gi ti n m t v i m a r i ro có th x y bu c ph i b qua d án mang l i l i nhu n hi n t i, i cho vi c n m gi ti n m t y, vi c n m gi ti n m t v a mang l i l i ích v a bu c doanh nghi p ph i b kho n phí nh nh, v t cho nhà qu n tr tài ph i cân nh c gi a l i ích mang l i chi phí b t vi c n m gi ti n m ng ti n m t t u nh trì c s quan tâm c a nhi u nhà nghiên c u th gi i cho k t lu m c a t ng qu c gia, y u t v tr , lu t pháp c sách c T sau kh ng ho ng kinh t 2008, vi c ti p c n v i ngu n v n vay tr nên p b thi u h t ti n m t g n TST(-1) RCL NDBT IPO IRT(-1) LOG(CASH) NCL NN1 0.026481 7.76E-08 -0.646862 -0.011021 0.028560 -0.022012 0.081301 0.010587 0.007721 1.46E-07 0.161140 0.027661 0.006421 0.020092 0.152234 0.053430 3.429897 0.530985 -4.014286 -0.398413 4.447919 -1.095561 0.534053 0.198142 0.0007 0.5957 0.0001 0.6905 0.0000 0.2738 0.5936 0.8430 Effects Specification Cross-section fixed (dummy variables) R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) b) Ki 0.564556 0.340851 0.220128 22.91978 216.9637 2.523657 0.000000 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat 0.170326 0.271133 0.075415 1.632345 0.676592 2.417669 nh b bi n Wald Test: Equation: BOBIEN Test Statistic F-statistic Chi-square Value df Probability 0.419446 3.355569 (8, 473) 0.9094 0.9101 Value Std Err -4.46E-05 -1.17E-13 0.000167 7.76E-08 -0.011021 -0.022012 0.081301 0.010587 4.37E-05 1.28E-13 0.041558 1.46E-07 0.027661 0.020092 0.152234 0.053430 Null Hypothesis: C(2)=C(4)=C(5)=C(7)=C(9)=C(11)=C(12)=C(13)=0 Null Hypothesis Summary: Normalized Restriction (= 0) C(2) C(4) C(5) C(7) C(9) C(11) C(12) C(13) Restrictions are linear in coefficients PH L C 2: MƠ HÌNH N PH L C 2A: MƠ HÌNH N (2009-2012) Dependent Variable: DBT Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 11/04/14 Time: 00:37 Sample: 2009 2012 Periods included: Cross-sections included: 233 Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 721 White diagonal standard errors & covariance (d.f corrected) Variable C LVG TST(-1) NDBT IRT(-1) Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob -0.331392 0.386445 0.020146 -0.652706 0.022495 0.096651 0.154060 0.006350 0.156617 0.005152 -3.428764 2.508412 3.172470 -4.167540 4.366323 0.0007 0.0125 0.0016 0.0000 0.0000 Effects Specification Cross-section fixed (dummy variables) R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 0.553489 0.335768 0.222755 24.01600 203.3371 2.542200 0.000000 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat 0.171888 0.273318 0.093378 1.599081 0.674625 2.449435 PH L C 2B: MÔ HÌNH N (2009-2013) Dependent Variable: DBT Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 11/04/14 Time: 00:38 Sample: 2009 2013 Periods included: Cross-sections included: 236 Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 957 White diagonal standard errors & covariance (d.f corrected) Variable C LVG TST(-1) NDBT IRT(-1) Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob -0.297625 0.250909 0.024537 -0.296741 0.024759 0.078858 0.112139 0.004856 0.134012 0.004584 -3.774171 2.237478 5.052527 -2.214287 5.400879 0.0002 0.0256 0.0000 0.0271 0.0000 Effects Specification Cross-section fixed (dummy variables) R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 0.452649 0.270199 0.232741 38.83862 175.3757 2.480942 0.000000 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat 0.181660 0.272439 0.135056 1.354819 0.599639 2.459275 PH L C 3: XÂY D NG MƠ HÌNH TI N M T PH L C 3A: MA TR N H S Correlation Probability LOG(CASH) LOG(CASH) 1.0000 LVG -0.2843 0.0000 LOG(TA) -0.0907 0.0151 MB 0.1694 0.0000 NWC -0.1772 0.0000 CAPEX 0.0289 0.4393 DM1 0.1581 0.0000 OIC 0.3550 0.0000 RCL 0.0405 0.2787 NCL 0.2670 0.0000 IRT -0.1425 0.0001 IRT(-1) -0.0537 0.1507 NDBT 0.0556 0.1363 IPO 0.0709 0.0575 DBT -0.1008 0.0069 NN1 0.0607 0.1039 LVG LOG(TA) 1.0000 0.2949 0.0000 -0.1352 0.0003 -0.2538 0.0000 -0.0173 0.6434 -0.0700 0.0610 -0.4313 0.0000 0.0485 0.1942 -0.0213 0.5689 0.1037 0.0054 0.0598 0.1095 0.0745 0.0461 -0.0484 0.1955 0.0501 0.1797 0.0387 0.2996 1.0000 -0.0338 0.3648 -0.1049 0.0049 -0.0292 0.4345 -0.0016 0.9641 -0.1463 0.0001 0.0697 0.0621 -0.0263 0.4807 0.0714 0.0558 0.0290 0.4368 0.0291 0.4355 0.1137 0.0023 0.0478 0.2006 -0.0265 0.4782 MƠ HÌNH TI N M T MB NWC CAPEX 1.0000 -0.0850 1.0000 0.0227 0.1599 -0.2011 0.0000 0.0000 0.1579 -0.0797 0.0000 0.0328 0.4591 0.0210 0.0000 0.5742 -0.0990 -0.0644 0.0079 0.0844 0.1154 -0.1955 0.0020 0.0000 -0.3346 0.0315 0.0000 0.3984 -0.0572 -0.0374 0.1257 0.3169 0.0889 0.0082 0.0173 0.8247 -0.0253 -0.1015 0.4977 0.0065 -0.0520 0.0059 0.1635 0.8737 0.0479 -0.2248 0.1992 0.0000 DM1 OIC RCL NCL IRT IRT(-1) NDBT 1.0000 0.0800 1.0000 0.0322 0.1698 0.1728 1.0000 0.0000 0.0000 -0.0306 -0.0031 0.0495 1.0000 0.4123 0.9329 0.1853 -0.0062 0.0155 0.1389 0.0408 1.0000 0.8667 0.6772 0.0002 0.2751 -0.0571 -0.1568 -0.0473 0.1767 -0.1363 1.0000 0.1262 0.0000 0.2050 0.0000 0.0002 -0.0586 0.0854 -0.1401 0.1562 0.0357 -0.2748 1.0000 0.1169 0.0221 0.0002 0.0000 0.3395 0.0000 0.3459 0.0109 0.0685 -0.0526 0.0910 0.0013 -0.1364 1.0000 0.0000 0.7695 0.0667 0.1592 0.0147 0.9716 0.0002 -0.0563 0.3046 -0.0373 0.0238 -0.0492 -0.0797 0.1513 -0.1231 0.1317 0.0000 0.3178 0.5244 0.1880 0.0328 0.0000 0.0010 -0.1171 -0.0298 -0.1266 0.0839 -0.0117 -0.0534 0.1566 -0.2481 0.0017 0.4250 0.0007 0.0246 0.7532 0.1526 0.0000 0.0000 0.0912 0.0573 0.0941 0.0604 0.0714 0.020234 0.0386 -0.0630 0.0145 0.1250 0.0117 0.1059 0.0558 0.5886 0.3011 0.0916 IPO DBT NN1 1.0000 0.0972 1.0000 0.0092 0.0377 -0.0265 0.3133 0.4777 1.0000 - PH L C 3B: KI EFFECT NH L A CH N GI A RANDOM VÀ FIXED a) Mơ hình random effect Dependent Variable: LOG(CASH) Method: Panel EGLS (Cross-section random effects) Date: 11/04/14 Time: 22:04 Sample: 2009 2012 Periods included: Cross-sections included: 235 Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 834 Swamy and Arora estimator of component variances Variable C LVG LOG(TA) MB NWC CAPEX DM1 OIC RCL NCL IRT NDBT IPO DBT NN1 Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob -1.614445 -1.882673 0.010253 0.039103 -1.953350 -0.840966 0.124630 2.338514 5.32E-07 2.341160 -0.032753 0.939641 -0.167800 -0.176632 0.073233 0.616578 0.299795 0.045485 0.080288 0.256350 0.405739 0.064119 0.529945 2.60E-07 0.319720 0.010897 0.305686 0.073850 0.107770 0.105824 -2.618393 -6.279871 0.225425 0.487031 -7.619857 -2.072677 1.943719 4.412746 2.049956 7.322533 -3.005683 3.073879 -2.272178 -1.638965 0.692030 0.0090 0.0000 0.8217 0.6264 0.0000 0.0385 0.0523 0.0000 0.0407 0.0000 0.0027 0.0022 0.0233 0.1016 0.4891 Effects Specification S.D Cross-section random Idiosyncratic random 0.968538 0.611343 Rho 0.7151 0.2849 Weighted Statistics R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 0.268283 0.255775 0.620735 21.44891 0.000000 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Sum squared resid Durbin-Watson stat -0.888375 0.730501 315.5707 1.471207 Unweighted Statistics R-squared Sum squared resid 0.235225 1156.786 Mean dependent var Durbin-Watson stat -2.801180 0.401345 b) Hausman test Correlated Random Effects - Hausman Test Equation: CASH_RE Test cross-section random effects Test Summary Chi-Sq Statistic Chi-Sq d.f Prob 35.461776 14 0.0013 Random Var(Diff.) Prob -1.882673 0.010253 0.039103 -1.953350 -0.840966 0.124630 2.338514 0.000001 2.341160 -0.032753 0.939641 -0.167800 -0.176632 0.073233 0.114643 0.012428 0.000874 0.048125 0.016374 0.000365 0.083411 0.000000 0.003542 0.000035 0.005875 0.000959 0.001064 0.005343 0.3642 0.9531 0.1959 0.9228 0.0458 0.2442 0.0188 0.6775 0.1297 0.3398 0.5593 0.0603 0.4247 0.5378 Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob -1.567394 -2.189937 0.016812 0.077326 -1.974597 -0.585352 0.102385 1.660037 4.87E-07 2.250972 -0.027103 0.984398 -0.225982 -0.150588 1.550752 0.452239 0.120401 0.085556 0.337403 0.425439 0.066903 0.603534 2.81E-07 0.325212 0.012400 0.315149 0.080083 0.112600 -1.010731 -4.842434 0.139636 0.903811 -5.852345 -1.375877 1.530342 2.750530 1.733714 6.921562 -2.185741 3.123597 -2.821841 -1.337368 0.3126 0.0000 0.8890 0.3665 0.0000 0.1694 0.1265 0.0061 0.0835 0.0000 0.0292 0.0019 0.0049 0.1816 Cross-section random Cross-section random effects test comparisons: Variable LVG LOG(TA) MB NWC CAPEX DM1 OIC RCL NCL IRT NDBT IPO DBT NN1 Fixed -2.189937 0.016812 0.077326 -1.974597 -0.585352 0.102385 1.660037 0.000000 2.250972 -0.027103 0.984398 -0.225982 -0.150588 0.118270 Cross-section random effects test equation: Dependent Variable: LOG(CASH) Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 11/04/14 Time: 22:05 Sample: 2009 2012 Periods included: Cross-sections included: 235 Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 834 Variable C LVG LOG(TA) MB NWC CAPEX DM1 OIC RCL NCL IRT NDBT IPO DBT NN1 0.118270 0.128614 0.919573 0.3582 Effects Specification Cross-section fixed (dummy variables) R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) PH L C 3C: KI M 0.855454 0.794176 0.611343 218.6380 -625.1085 13.96028 0.000000 NH HI Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat -2.801180 1.347526 2.096183 3.507253 2.637185 2.118838 NG T a) Mơ hình h i quy ph -1 Dependent Variable: RESID01 Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 11/04/14 Time: 22:07 Sample (adjusted): 2010 2012 Periods included: Cross-sections included: 232 Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 599 Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob LVG LOG(TA) MB NWC CAPEX DM1 OIC RCL NCL IRT NDBT IPO DBT NN1 RESID01(-1) 0.027514 -0.023879 0.077465 -0.023680 0.027914 0.018639 0.100587 1.21E-07 -0.433535 0.011619 -0.452662 0.039145 0.059317 -0.003696 -0.195474 0.122228 0.010966 0.069559 0.115696 0.310907 0.044963 0.326240 1.70E-07 0.271867 0.008772 0.247289 0.053956 0.072984 0.049236 0.040745 0.225108 -2.177530 1.113657 -0.204676 0.089783 0.414541 0.308321 0.713311 -1.594659 1.324546 -1.830496 0.725512 0.812738 -0.075070 -4.797464 0.8220 0.0298 0.2659 0.8379 0.9285 0.6786 0.7579 0.4759 0.1113 0.1858 0.0677 0.4684 0.4167 0.9402 0.0000 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat 0.058719 0.036154 0.471091 129.6054 -391.4794 2.109348 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter -0.008601 0.479845 1.357193 1.467258 1.400043 b) Ki nh Wald Wald Test: Equation: TEST_TUTUONGQUAN Test Statistic Value Probability -4.797464 23.01566 23.01566 584 (1, 584) 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 Value Std Err -0.195474 t-statistic F-statistic Chi-square df 0.040745 Null Hypothesis: C(15)=0 Null Hypothesis Summary: Normalized Restriction (= 0) C(15) Restrictions are linear in coefficients PH L C 3D: KI NH HI a) Mơ hình h I cl p Dependent Variable: RE01_2 Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 11/04/14 Time: 22:08 Sample (adjusted): 2009 2012 Periods included: Cross-sections included: 235 Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 834 Variable C LVG LOG(TA) MB NWC CAPEX DM1 OIC RCL NCL IRT NDBT IPO DBT NN1 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob 0.435381 -0.026331 0.011793 0.045690 0.316843 -0.117555 -0.020915 -0.664657 2.04E-07 -0.251215 -0.025343 0.578864 -0.064718 0.198827 -0.041712 0.226683 0.115344 0.013560 0.053999 0.115051 0.272890 0.045178 0.289422 1.75E-07 0.263068 0.008774 0.238112 0.049778 0.073887 0.048052 1.920660 -0.228282 0.869664 0.846115 2.753946 -0.430778 -0.462948 -2.296499 1.165274 -0.954944 -2.888255 2.431062 -1.300134 2.690944 -0.868054 0.0551 0.8195 0.3847 0.3977 0.0060 0.6667 0.6435 0.0219 0.2442 0.3399 0.0040 0.0153 0.1939 0.0073 0.3856 0.057591 0.041482 0.541038 239.7392 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion 0.262156 0.552621 1.627166 1.712171 Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) b) Ki -663.5284 3.574986 0.000009 Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat 1.659757 1.328402 nh Wald Wald Test: Equation: TEST_PHUONGSAITHAYDOI Test Statistic F-statistic Chi-square Value df Probability 16.09011 225.2616 (14, 819) 14 0.0000 0.0000 Value Std Err 0.435381 -0.026331 0.011793 0.045690 0.316843 -0.117555 -0.020915 -0.664657 2.04E-07 -0.251215 -0.025343 0.578864 -0.064718 0.198827 0.226683 0.115344 0.013560 0.053999 0.115051 0.272890 0.045178 0.289422 1.75E-07 0.263068 0.008774 0.238112 0.049778 0.073887 Null Hypothesis: C(1)=C(2)=C(3)=C(4)=C(5)=C(6)=C(7)=C( 8)=C(9)=C(10)=C(11)=C(12)=C(13)=C(14)=0 Null Hypothesis Summary: Normalized Restriction (= 0) C(1) C(2) C(3) C(4) C(5) C(6) C(7) C(8) C(9) C(10) C(11) C(12) C(13) C(14) Restrictions are linear in coefficients PH L C 3E: KI NH LO I B T BI N a) u ch nh Dependent Variable: LOG(CASH) Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 11/04/14 Time: 22:10 Sample: 2009 2012 Periods included: Cross-sections included: 235 Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 834 White diagonal standard errors & covariance (d.f corrected) Variable Std Error t-Statistic Prob -1.567394 -2.189937 0.016812 0.077326 -1.974597 -0.585352 0.102385 1.660037 4.87E-07 2.250972 -0.027103 0.984398 -0.225982 -0.150588 0.118270 C LVG LOG(TA) MB NWC CAPEX DM1 OIC RCL NCL IRT NDBT IPO DBT NN1 Coefficient 0.639908 0.218555 0.054089 0.085028 0.302292 0.292850 0.029626 0.743330 2.24E-07 0.284374 0.010961 0.424272 0.092630 0.073144 0.116163 -2.449404 -10.02009 0.310829 0.909418 -6.532084 -1.998809 3.455874 2.233244 2.171220 7.915535 -2.472806 2.320204 -2.439615 -2.058786 1.018141 0.0146 0.0000 0.7560 0.3635 0.0000 0.0461 0.0006 0.0259 0.0303 0.0000 0.0137 0.0207 0.0150 0.0400 0.3090 Effects Specification Cross-section fixed (dummy variables) R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) b) Ki 0.855454 0.794176 0.611343 218.6380 -625.1085 13.96028 0.000000 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat -2.801180 1.347526 2.096183 3.507253 2.637185 2.118838 nh b bi n Redundant Variables Test Equation: TEST_BOBIEN Specification: LOG(CASH) LVG LOG(TA) MB NWC CAPEX DM1 OIC RCL NCL IRT NDBT IPO DBT NN1 Redundant Variables: LOG(TA) MB NN1 F-statistic Likelihood ratio Value 0.584726 2.497086 df (3, 585) Probability 0.6252 0.4758 F-test summary: Test SSR Restricted SSR Unrestricted SSR Unrestricted SSR Sum of Sq 0.655607 219.2936 218.6380 218.6380 df 588 585 585 Value -626.3571 -625.1085 Mean Squares 0.218536 0.372948 0.373740 0.373740 df 588 585 LR test summary: Restricted LogL Unrestricted LogL Restricted Test Equation: Dependent Variable: LOG(CASH) Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 11/04/14 Time: 23:01 Sample: 2009 2012 Periods included: Cross-sections included: 235 Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 834 White diagonal standard errors & covariance (d.f corrected) Variable C LVG NWC CAPEX DM1 OIC RCL NCL IRT NDBT IPO DBT Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob -1.200150 -2.176916 -2.015951 -0.603413 0.103514 1.787094 4.95E-07 2.238131 -0.030082 0.965669 -0.227925 -0.148546 0.118675 0.249131 0.229581 0.236195 0.026871 0.507889 1.75E-07 0.250664 0.006518 0.352077 0.087442 0.061546 -10.11294 -8.738039 -8.780992 -2.554725 3.852224 3.518668 2.835000 8.928794 -4.615336 2.742781 -2.606592 -2.413568 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0109 0.0001 0.0005 0.0047 0.0000 0.0000 0.0063 0.0094 0.0161 Effects Specification Cross-section fixed (dummy variables) R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 0.855020 0.794612 0.610695 219.2936 -626.3571 14.15405 0.000000 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat -2.801180 1.347526 2.091983 3.486052 2.626467 2.108024 PH L C 4: MƠ HÌNH TI N M T - THAY BI N IRT(-1) PH L C 4A: MÔ HÌNH TI N M T (2009-2012) Dependent Variable: LOG(CASH) Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 11/04/14 Time: 23:10 Sample: 2009 2012 Periods included: Cross-sections included: 235 Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 834 White diagonal standard errors & covariance (d.f corrected) Variable C LVG NWC CAPEX DM1 OIC RCL NCL IRT NDBT IPO DBT Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob -1.200150 -2.176916 -2.015951 -0.603413 0.103514 1.787094 4.95E-07 2.238131 -0.030082 0.965669 -0.227925 -0.148546 0.118675 0.249131 0.229581 0.236195 0.026871 0.507889 1.75E-07 0.250664 0.006518 0.352077 0.087442 0.061546 -10.11294 -8.738039 -8.780992 -2.554725 3.852224 3.518668 2.835000 8.928794 -4.615336 2.742781 -2.606592 -2.413568 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0109 0.0001 0.0005 0.0047 0.0000 0.0000 0.0063 0.0094 0.0161 Effects Specification Cross-section fixed (dummy variables) R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 0.855020 0.794612 0.610695 219.2936 -626.3571 14.15405 0.000000 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat -2.801180 1.347526 2.091983 3.486052 2.626467 2.108024 PH L C 4B: MƠ HÌNH TI N M T (2008-2013) Dependent Variable: LOG(CASH) Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 11/09/14 Time: 16:25 Sample: 2008 2013 Periods included: Cross-sections included: 239 Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 1190 White diagonal standard errors & covariance (d.f corrected) Variable C LVG NWC CAPEX DM1 OIC RCL NCL IRT NDBT IPO DBT Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob -0.826966 -2.980092 -2.382369 -0.402167 0.036985 1.810820 2.63E-07 2.135698 -0.023960 0.376433 -0.167364 -0.106171 0.112789 0.305951 0.236830 0.291818 0.045102 0.319539 1.14E-07 0.219707 0.003225 0.222022 0.076380 0.068555 -7.331961 -9.740424 -10.05940 -1.378143 0.820023 5.666979 2.308717 9.720684 -7.428908 1.695476 -2.191201 -1.548704 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.1685 0.0124 0.0000 0.0212 0.0000 0.0000 0.0903 0.0287 0.0218 Effects Specification Cross-section fixed (dummy variables) R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 0.803575 0.751544 0.676260 429.8876 -1082.717 15.44399 0.000000 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat -2.783424 1.356715 2.239860 3.307446 2.642178 1.629568 PH L C 5: MƠ HÌNH TI N M T THAY TH BI N IRT(-1) PH L C 5A: MƠ HÌNH TI N M T (2009-2012) Dependent Variable: LOG(CASH) Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 11/05/14 Time: 23:10 Sample: 2009 2012 Periods included: Cross-sections included: 232 Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 717 White diagonal standard errors & covariance (d.f corrected) Variable C LVG MB NWC CAPEX DM1 OIC RCL NCL IRT(-1) NDBT IPO DBT Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob -1.315032 -2.135465 0.172829 -1.833764 -0.561207 0.118438 1.414510 4.38E-07 2.096243 -0.011078 0.848614 -0.167499 -0.126193 0.111519 0.202157 0.050987 0.264583 0.415512 0.055962 0.592872 2.84E-07 0.314288 0.004787 0.449830 0.025851 0.044330 -11.79201 -10.56341 3.389692 -6.930768 -1.350638 2.116398 2.385863 1.541810 6.669807 -2.314178 1.886521 -6.479465 -2.846688 0.0000 0.0000 0.0008 0.0000 0.1775 0.0348 0.0174 0.0238 0.0000 0.0211 0.0598 0.0000 0.0046 Effects Specification Cross-section fixed (dummy variables) R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 0.881880 0.820819 0.572069 154.4680 -467.0497 14.44241 0.000000 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat -2.795082 1.351456 1.986192 3.549502 2.589832 2.286578 PH L C 5B: MƠ HÌNH TI N M T (2008-2013) Dependent Variable: LOG(CASH) Method: Panel Generalized Method of Moments Date: 11/09/14 Time: 16:29 Sample: 2008 2013 Periods included: Cross-sections included: 236 Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 1046 White diagonal standard errors & covariance (d.f corrected) Variable C LVG MB NWC CAPEX DM1 OIC RCL NCL IRT(-1) NDBT IPO DBT Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob -0.848349 -2.939230 0.099879 -2.334468 -0.287124 0.063847 1.500192 2.85E-07 2.074465 -0.012598 0.215327 -0.078925 -0.098984 0.225104 0.345945 0.043460 0.272053 0.347339 0.060864 0.375322 1.26E-07 0.333892 0.007605 0.208994 0.077134 0.056682 -3.768706 -8.496243 2.298209 -8.580943 -0.826639 1.049008 3.997078 2.259153 6.212975 -1.656633 1.030302 -1.023219 -1.746317 0.0002 0.0000 0.0218 0.0000 0.4087 0.0045 0.0001 0.0241 0.0000 0.0980 0.3032 0.0065 0.0011 Effects Specification Cross-section fixed (dummy variables) R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Durbin-Watson stat Instrument rank 0.831816 0.779483 0.641100 1.681088 249 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Sum squared resid J-statistic -2.776266 1.365225 327.5739 7.91E-22 ... m t c a doanh nghi cho nghiên c u ti p theo v nh ng ng c a r i ro tái tài tr n hi n ng c a r i ro tái tài tr n tài doanh nghi p 1.6 K t c tài u lý lu n v r i ro tái tài tr v n quy c a doanh nghi... gi ti n m t c a doanh nghi p 1.3 Câu h i nghiên c u Các nhân t n r i ro tái tài tr c a doanh nghi p Vi t Nam gì? ng c a r i ro tái tài tr bên c nh bi n ki m soát gi ti n m t c a doanh nghi 1.4... nh n m gi ti n m t LÝ LU N V R I RO TÁI TÀI TR NH N M GI TI N M T VÀ QUY 2.1 R i ro tái tài tr quy nh n m gi ti n m t 2.1.1 R i ro tái tài tr Khi tái tài tr , 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