B GIÁO D I H C KINH T TP H O CHÍ MINH MAI TH HU NH MAI M I QUAN H GI A L M PHÁT VÀ NG KINH T T I VI T NAM LU TP H CHÍ MINH - B GIÁO D O I H C KINH T TP H CHÍ MINH MAI TH HU NH MAI M I QUAN H GI A L M PHÁT VÀ NG KINH T T I VI T NAM Chuyên ngành: Tài Ngân hàng Mã s : 60340201 LU NG D N KHOA H C: PGS TS NGUY TP H CHÍ MINH - TÓM T T LÝ THUY T V M I QUAN H GI A L M PHÁT NG KINH T 10 2.1 10 2.2 27 2.3 28 35 3.1 35 3.2 36 43 4.1 43 4.2 46 4.3 51 4.4 56 T LU N 71 TÀI LI U THAM KH O 75 PH L C 80 VI T T T AD ARCH ARMA AS T ng c u (Aggregate Demand) (Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) Autoregressive Moving Average) T ng cung (Aggregate Supply) T ng c c nghiên c u kinh t qu c gia ASA NBER K B ph n th ng kê Hoa (American Statistical Association National Bureau of Economic Research) ASEAN Hi p h i qu Southeast Asian Nations) CAPM CPI nh giá tài s n v n (Capital Asset Pricing Model) Ch s giá tiêu dùng (Consumer Price Index) EGARCH Exponential Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) T ph pb yv b G7 ng tài c a b th gi i g m: Canada, Pháp, c tiên ti n c, Ý, Nh t, Anh Hoa K (Group of Seven) Generalised GARCH Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) Mơ hình t h i quy t ng qt v GARCH - M ki mean) u trung bình (The GARCH-in- GDP GIRFs T ng s n ph m qu c n i (Gross Domestic Product) Generalised Impulse Response Functions) GNP T ng s n ph m qu c gia (Gross National Product) GSO T ng c c th ng kê Vi t Nam (General Statistics Office) IFS IIP Statistics) Ch s s n xu t công nghi p ( Index Industry Products) IMF NAIRU OECD PSTR SAAR T l th t nghi p t nhiên ( T l th t nghi l m phát_Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment) T ch c H p tác Phát tri n Kinh t (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) Mơ hình h i quy chuy n ti Regression) T l (Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate) u ch nh tính mùa v 39 45 -2014 50 52 4.4 53 4.5 -M -2014) 56 4.6 -M -2014) 59 4.7 63 4.8 65 Hình 2.1 M 16 Hình 2.2 22 Hình 4.1 quý 47 Hình quý 48 Hình quý II/2014 49 Nam (1999-2014) 51 Hình 4.5 GARCH (1,1) 55 Hình 4.6 69 phát T b toàn c u, Vi u th c hi c nh liên t c cao so v i m i m c a h i nh p kinh t c ti ,t c khu v c, v ng kinh t ng áp l c ngày thành m t nh ng m c tiêu quan tr ng xây d ng sách kinh t u cu c tranh lu n di n v s t n t i b n ch t c a m i quan h gi a l h uh ng kinh t Tuy nhiên ng thu n r ng l ng kinh t có s v i m i quan h không thu n nh t, m c tiêu l m phát th ng tích c ng l n nh kinh t ng kinh t Bài nghiên c u s ti p t c t p trung vào m i quan h gi a l m phát, bi n ng c a l m phát, s n ng kinh t nh ng bi ng c a s b ng mơ hình t h i quy t ng quát c p s nhân v (EGARCH) ki nh gi thuy d li u c a Vi t Nam Các k t qu ki m u ki n nghiên c nh s ng kinh t i phát hi n nh ng m i bi ki n ngh ho chi ng c a l ng kinh t t nh sách ki m sốt bi ng c a l m phát phù h p v i c phát tri n kinh t t AD-AS) trình bày Cukierman Meltzer (1986), Deveraux (1989), Friedman (1977), Black (1987), Holland (1995) , xu t b i Nelson (1991) c phát tri n b i Paresh Kumar Narayan Seema Narayan (2012) nhìn sâu s gi ng s u tiên v tính ch t ph c t p c a m i quan h ng, l m phát, bi ng s thông qua nhi u kênh truy n d n khác v i ng bi ng l m phát ng không thu n nh t gi thuy t c a Friedman, ng h p c a Vi n l m phát cao d l m phát, l m phát b cá nhân n n kinh t c ah s có th nh n nh ng d n nhi u b t c a t ch c, u khó xác thu n nh t, v y nh ng hành vi ng tiêu c ng s ng Vi t Nam có th ng n n kinh v a l m phát cao v a có t l th t nghi p cao Theo 88 Null Hypothesis: INF is stationary Exogenous: Constant Bandwidth: (Newey-West automatic) using Bartlett kernel LM-Stat Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin test statistic 0.515349 Asymptotic critical values*: 1% level 0.739000 5% level 0.463000 10% level 0.347000 *Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (1992, Table 1) Residual variance (no correction) 54.17774 HAC corrected variance (Bartlett kernel) 151.3419 KPSS Test Equation Dependent Variable: INF Method: Least Squares Date: 11/26/14 Time: 12:03 Sample (adjusted): 1999Q1 2014Q2 Included observations: 62 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob C 6.973696 0.942422 7.399758 0.0000 R-squared 0.000000 Mean dependent var 6.973696 Adjusted R-squared 0.000000 S.D dependent var 7.420640 S.E of regression 7.420640 Akaike info criterion 6.862405 Sum squared resid 3359.020 Schwarz criterion 6.896714 Hannan-Quinn criter 6.875876 Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat -211.7346 0.503971 89 Null Hypothesis: INF is stationary Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend Bandwidth: (Newey-West automatic) using Bartlett kernel LM-Stat Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin test statistic 0.153944 Asymptotic critical values*: 1% level 0.216000 5% level 0.146000 10% level 0.119000 *Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (1992, Table 1) Residual variance (no correction) 45.10357 HAC corrected variance (Bartlett kernel) 101.5675 KPSS Test Equation Dependent Variable: INF Method: Least Squares Date: 11/26/14 Time: 12:04 Sample (adjusted): 1999Q1 2014Q2 Included observations: 62 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob C 1.671333 1.755234 0.952200 0.3448 @TREND("1998Q4") 0.168329 0.048449 3.474351 0.0010 R-squared 0.167489 Mean dependent var 6.973696 Adjusted R-squared 0.153614 S.D dependent var 7.420640 S.E of regression 6.826933 Akaike info criterion 6.711355 Sum squared resid 2796.421 Schwarz criterion 6.779972 Hannan-Quinn criter 6.738295 Durbin-Watson stat 0.606129 Log likelihood -206.0520 F-statistic 12.07111 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000957 90 Null Hypothesis: GROWTH has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Lag Length: (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=10) t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -1.994349 0.2885 Test critical values: 1% level -3.552666 5% level -2.914517 10% level -2.595033 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(GROWTH) Method: Least Squares Date: 11/26/14 Time: 12:04 Sample (adjusted): 2000Q3 2014Q2 Included observations: 56 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob GROWTH(-1) -0.502250 0.251837 -1.994349 0.0517 D(GROWTH(-1)) -0.350769 0.261067 -1.343598 0.1853 D(GROWTH(-2)) -0.429616 0.250842 -1.712695 0.0931 D(GROWTH(-3)) -0.288856 0.214705 -1.345364 0.1847 D(GROWTH(-4)) 0.060563 0.178717 0.338879 0.7361 D(GROWTH(-5)) 0.168258 0.105765 1.590868 0.1181 C 3.264637 1.687030 1.935139 0.0588 R-squared 0.577723 Mean dependent var -0.010739 Adjusted R-squared 0.526016 S.D dependent var 2.919683 S.E of regression 2.010100 Akaike info criterion 4.350714 Sum squared resid 197.9846 Schwarz criterion 4.603883 Hannan-Quinn criter 4.448868 Durbin-Watson stat 2.073766 Log likelihood -114.8200 F-statistic 11.17294 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 91 Null Hypothesis: GROWTH has a unit root Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend Lag Length: (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=10) t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -2.837753 0.1905 Test critical values: 1% level -4.130526 5% level -3.492149 10% level -3.174802 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(GROWTH) Method: Least Squares Date: 11/26/14 Time: 12:05 Sample (adjusted): 2000Q3 2014Q2 Included observations: 56 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob GROWTH(-1) -0.812997 0.286493 -2.837753 0.0066 D(GROWTH(-1)) -0.126114 0.275169 -0.458317 0.6488 D(GROWTH(-2)) -0.268167 0.255135 -1.051080 0.2985 D(GROWTH(-3)) -0.227926 0.209965 -1.085543 0.2831 D(GROWTH(-4)) 0.088249 0.173557 0.508471 0.6135 D(GROWTH(-5)) 0.166703 0.102408 1.627837 0.1101 C 6.700214 2.330945 2.874462 0.0060 @TREND("1998Q4") -0.039956 0.019340 -2.066026 0.0442 R-squared 0.612208 Mean dependent var -0.010739 Adjusted R-squared 0.555655 S.D dependent var 2.919683 S.E of regression 1.946237 Akaike info criterion 4.301237 181.8163 Schwarz criterion 4.590573 Hannan-Quinn criter 4.413412 Durbin-Watson stat 2.070092 Sum squared resid Log likelihood -112.4346 F-statistic 10.82539 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 92 Null Hypothesis: GROWTH has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Bandwidth: (Newey-West automatic) using Bartlett kernel Adj t-Stat -9.674369 Phillips-Perron test statistic Test critical values: Prob.* 0.0000 1% level -3.542097 5% level -2.910019 10% level -2.592645 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values Residual variance (no correction) 7.629624 HAC corrected variance (Bartlett kernel) 8.206572 Phillips-Perron Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(GROWTH) Method: Least Squares Date: 11/26/14 Time: 12:05 Sample (adjusted): 1999Q2 2014Q2 Included observations: 61 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob GROWTH(-1) -1.205880 0.123641 -9.753037 0.0000 C 7.854750 0.873224 8.995112 0.0000 R-squared 0.617186 Mean dependent var 0.093851 Adjusted R-squared 0.610697 S.D dependent var 4.501392 S.E of regression 2.808604 Akaike info criterion 4.935489 Sum squared resid 465.4071 Schwarz criterion 5.004698 Hannan-Quinn criter 4.962613 Durbin-Watson stat 1.743203 Log likelihood -148.5324 F-statistic 95.12173 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 93 Null Hypothesis: GROWTH has a unit root Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend Bandwidth: (Newey-West automatic) using Bartlett kernel Adj t-Stat -10.43915 Phillips-Perron test statistic Test critical values: Prob.* 0.0000 1% level -4.115684 5% level -3.485218 10% level -3.170793 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values Residual variance (no correction) 7.060326 HAC corrected variance (Bartlett kernel) 6.386867 Phillips-Perron Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(GROWTH) Method: Least Squares Date: 11/26/14 Time: 12:06 Sample (adjusted): 1999Q2 2014Q2 Included observations: 61 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob GROWTH(-1) -1.250992 0.121760 -10.27421 0.0000 C 9.536988 1.150172 8.291790 0.0000 @TREND("1998Q4") -0.043497 0.020113 -2.162576 0.0347 R-squared 0.645750 Mean dependent var 0.093851 Adjusted R-squared 0.633535 S.D dependent var 4.501392 S.E of regression 2.724980 Akaike info criterion 4.890729 430.6799 Schwarz criterion 4.994542 Hannan-Quinn criter 4.931414 Durbin-Watson stat 1.799347 Sum squared resid Log likelihood -146.1672 F-statistic 52.86311 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 94 Null Hypothesis: GROWTH is stationary Exogenous: Constant Bandwidth: (Newey-West automatic) using Bartlett kernel LM-Stat Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin test statistic Asymptotic critical values*: 0.320085 1% level 0.739000 5% level 0.463000 10% level 0.347000 *Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (1992, Table 1) Residual variance (no correction) 8.325184 HAC corrected variance (Bartlett kernel) 8.325184 KPSS Test Equation Dependent Variable: GROWTH Method: Least Squares Date: 11/26/14 Time: 12:06 Sample (adjusted): 1999Q1 2014Q2 Included observations: 62 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob C 6.442343 0.369430 17.43861 0.0000 R-squared 0.000000 Mean dependent var 6.442343 Adjusted R-squared 0.000000 S.D dependent var 2.908894 S.E of regression 2.908894 Akaike info criterion 4.989420 Sum squared resid 516.1614 Schwarz criterion 5.023729 Hannan-Quinn criter 5.002891 Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat -153.6720 2.356412 95 Null Hypothesis: GROWTH is stationary Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend Bandwidth: (Newey-West automatic) using Bartlett kernel LM-Stat Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin test statistic Asymptotic critical values*: 0.203158 1% level 0.216000 5% level 0.146000 10% level 0.119000 *Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (1992, Table 1) Residual variance (no correction) 8.103034 HAC corrected variance (Bartlett kernel) 5.168940 KPSS Test Equation Dependent Variable: GROWTH Method: Least Squares Date: 11/26/14 Time: 12:06 Sample (adjusted): 1999Q1 2014Q2 Included observations: 62 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob C 7.271983 0.743966 9.774613 0.0000 @TREND("1998Q4") -0.026338 0.020535 -1.282553 0.2046 R-squared 0.026684 Mean dependent var 6.442343 Adjusted R-squared 0.010462 S.D dependent var 2.908894 S.E of regression 2.893637 Akaike info criterion 4.994632 Sum squared resid 502.3881 Schwarz criterion 5.063249 Hannan-Quinn criter 5.021573 Durbin-Watson stat 2.421699 Log likelihood -152.8336 F-statistic 1.644942 Prob(F-statistic) 0.204582 96 97 98 EGARCH Dependent Variable: INF Method: ML - ARCH (Marquardt) - Student's t distribution Date: 08/23/14 Time: 21:49 Sample (adjusted): 1999Q2 2014Q2 Included observations: 61 after adjustments Convergence achieved after 107 iterations MA Backcast: 1999Q1 Presample variance: backcast (parameter = 0.7) LOG(GARCH) = C(7) + C(8)*ABS(RESID(-1)/@SQRT(GARCH(-1))) + C(9) *RESID(-1)/@SQRT(GARCH(-1)) + C(10)*LOG(GARCH(-1)) + C(11) *INF + C(12)*GROWTH + C(13)*CV_GROWTH Variable Coefficient Std Error z-Statistic Prob GARCH C CV_GROWTH GROWTH AR(1) MA(1) 0.158977 -23.46585 -0.691237 -0.472495 -0.002557 0.015377 0.797544 4.930041 0.335196 0.146091 0.097316 0.066793 0.199333 -4.759768 -2.062190 -3.234241 -0.026273 0.230223 0.8420 0.0000 0.0392 0.0012 0.9790 0.8179 Variance Equation C(7) C(8) C(9) C(10) C(11) C(12) C(13) 5.185432 -0.050020 0.132936 -0.022184 0.027227 0.013475 0.018615 5.471029 0.141189 0.302149 0.076658 0.003879 0.004022 0.010341 0.947798 -0.354279 0.439969 -0.289396 7.019524 3.350035 1.800184 0.3432 0.7231 0.6600 0.7723 0.0000 0.0008 0.0718 T-DIST DOF 2.000264 0.001334 1499.186 0.0000 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat Inverted AR Roots Inverted MA Roots 0.951821 0.947441 1.714292 161.6339 -44.53078 1.577100 -.00 -.02 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter 7.006917 7.477573 1.919042 2.403505 2.108907 99 ,1) EGARCH Dependent Variable: GROWTH Method: ML - ARCH (Marquardt) - Student's t distribution Date: 08/23/14 Time: 20:40 Sample (adjusted): 1999Q3 2014Q2 Included observations: 60 after adjustments Convergence achieved after 141 iterations MA Backcast: 1999Q2 Presample variance: backcast (parameter = 0.7) LOG(GARCH) = C(8) + C(9)*ABS(RESID(-1)/@SQRT(GARCH(-1))) + C(10) *RESID(-1)/@SQRT(GARCH(-1)) + C(11)*LOG(GARCH(-1)) + C(12) *INF + C(13)*GROWTH + C(14)*CV_INF Variable Coefficient Std Error z-Statistic Prob GARCH C CV_INF INF AR(1) AR(2) MA(1) -2.760700 23.57375 -0.008157 0.144035 -0.065933 -0.014444 0.079623 1.633499 1.566203 0.001079 0.032331 0.121931 0.006854 0.112422 -1.690053 15.05153 -7.556885 4.455087 -0.540738 -2.107505 0.708255 0.0910 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.5887 0.0351 0.4788 Variance Equation C(8) C(9) C(10) C(11) C(12) C(13) C(14) 2.211828 -0.024057 0.007447 -0.022693 0.008330 -0.054365 -0.000481 0.645828 0.025984 0.019353 0.011447 0.001675 0.004777 7.61E-05 3.424795 -0.925833 0.384815 -1.982518 4.973788 -11.37983 -6.319943 0.0006 0.3545 0.7004 0.0474 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 T-DIST DOF 2.002270 0.001910 1048.396 0.0000 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat Inverted AR Roots Inverted MA Roots 0.926306 0.915888 0.171421 1.557422 32.10556 2.058573 -.03+.12i -.08 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter -.03-.12i 6.395754 2.673094 -0.570185 -0.046599 -0.365382 100 c7 Pairwise Granger Causality Tests Date: 11/26/14 Time: 12:32 Sample: 1998Q4 2014Q2 Lags: Null Hypothesis: Obs F-Statistic Prob CV_GROWTH does not Granger Cause GROWTH GROWTH does not Granger Cause CV_GROWTH 60 6.99999 42.5760 0.0020 7.E-12 INF does not Granger Cause GROWTH GROWTH does not Granger Cause INF 60 3.15685 0.29428 0.0504 0.7462 CV_INF does not Granger Cause GROWTH GROWTH does not Granger Cause CV_INF 60 5.08227 0.43689 0.0094 0.6483 INF does not Granger Cause CV_GROWTH CV_GROWTH does not Granger Cause INF 60 2.05415 0.69555 0.1379 0.5031 CV_INF does not Granger Cause CV_GROWTH CV_GROWTH does not Granger Cause CV_INF 60 3.65466 0.05636 0.0323 0.9453 CV_INF does not Granger Cause INF INF does not Granger Cause CV_INF 60 5.60541 27.6483 0.0061 5.E-09 Obs F-Statistic Prob CV_GROWTH does not Granger Cause GROWTH GROWTH does not Granger Cause CV_GROWTH 59 1.50605 24.7782 0.2238 4.E-10 INF does not Granger Cause GROWTH GROWTH does not Granger Cause INF 59 2.65062 0.55514 0.0584 0.6470 CV_INF does not Granger Cause GROWTH GROWTH does not Granger Cause CV_INF 59 5.21406 0.32454 0.0032 0.8076 INF does not Granger Cause CV_GROWTH CV_GROWTH does not Granger Cause INF 59 3.86677 0.43216 0.0143 0.7309 CV_INF does not Granger Cause CV_GROWTH CV_GROWTH does not Granger Cause CV_INF 59 7.07759 0.17311 0.0004 0.9141 CV_INF does not Granger Cause INF INF does not Granger Cause CV_INF 59 3.66476 18.4924 0.0180 3.E-08 Pairwise Granger Causality Tests Date: 11/26/14 Time: 12:35 Sample: 1998Q4 2014Q2 Lags: Null Hypothesis: 101 Pairwise Granger Causality Tests Date: 11/26/14 Time: 12:36 Sample: 1998Q4 2014Q2 Lags: Null Hypothesis: Obs F-Statistic Prob CV_GROWTH does not Granger Cause GROWTH GROWTH does not Granger Cause CV_GROWTH 58 1.43328 8.89808 0.2371 2.E-05 INF does not Granger Cause GROWTH GROWTH does not Granger Cause INF 58 2.78286 0.93062 0.0367 0.4540 CV_INF does not Granger Cause GROWTH GROWTH does not Granger Cause CV_INF 58 4.03675 0.42314 0.0066 0.7912 INF does not Granger Cause CV_GROWTH CV_GROWTH does not Granger Cause INF 58 4.62707 0.36032 0.0030 0.8356 CV_INF does not Granger Cause CV_GROWTH CV_GROWTH does not Granger Cause CV_INF 58 6.67668 0.37741 0.0002 0.8237 CV_INF does not Granger Cause INF INF does not Granger Cause CV_INF 58 2.72437 15.8624 0.0398 2.E-08 Obs F-Statistic Prob CV_GROWTH does not Granger Cause GROWTH GROWTH does not Granger Cause CV_GROWTH 57 0.84731 7.39691 0.5235 4.E-05 INF does not Granger Cause GROWTH GROWTH does not Granger Cause INF 57 4.26540 1.18225 0.0029 0.3325 CV_INF does not Granger Cause GROWTH GROWTH does not Granger Cause CV_INF 57 4.88036 1.20139 0.0012 0.3235 INF does not Granger Cause CV_GROWTH CV_GROWTH does not Granger Cause INF 57 4.14255 0.34997 0.0034 0.8796 CV_INF does not Granger Cause CV_GROWTH CV_GROWTH does not Granger Cause CV_INF 57 5.69213 0.36450 0.0004 0.8702 CV_INF does not Granger Cause INF INF does not Granger Cause CV_INF 57 1.84996 14.2135 0.1218 2.E-08 Pairwise Granger Causality Tests Date: 11/26/14 Time: 12:36 Sample: 1998Q4 2014Q2 Lags: Null Hypothesis: 102 Pairwise Granger Causality Tests Date: 11/26/14 Time: 12:37 Sample: 1998Q4 2014Q2 Lags: Null Hypothesis: Obs F-Statistic Prob CV_GROWTH does not Granger Cause GROWTH GROWTH does not Granger Cause CV_GROWTH 56 1.79222 5.81641 0.1234 0.0002 INF does not Granger Cause GROWTH GROWTH does not Granger Cause INF 56 3.28216 1.72956 0.0095 0.1372 CV_INF does not Granger Cause GROWTH GROWTH does not Granger Cause CV_INF 56 3.44857 1.03480 0.0072 0.4163 INF does not Granger Cause CV_GROWTH CV_GROWTH does not Granger Cause INF 56 3.92071 2.10306 0.0033 0.0725 CV_INF does not Granger Cause CV_GROWTH CV_GROWTH does not Granger Cause CV_INF 56 4.43382 0.74352 0.0014 0.6177 CV_INF does not Granger Cause INF INF does not Granger Cause CV_INF 56 1.60417 12.7575 0.1693 3.E-08 ... i m i quan h không thu n nh t, m c tiêu l m phát th ng tích c ng l n nh kinh t ng kinh t Bài nghiên c u s ti p t c t p trung vào m i quan h gi a l m phát, bi n ng c a l m phát, s n ng kinh t... thuy t v m i quan h , ng kinh t , nh ng bi ng b t n l m phát ng kinh t t i Vi t Nam t vi c t ng h p nh nhà kinh t th gi i v v ki D a vào k t qu phân tích lý thuy t nh gi thuy nh sách kinh t m lý... L c nhà kinh t phân lo i d a theo t l khác l m phát v a ph i (l i ba m c c ki u), l m phát cao (l m phát phi mã), siêu l m phát (l m phát siêu t c) L m phát v a ph i v i m c t l l m phát S Hà