TAC OONG COA CAI CACH CHI'NH SACH NONG NGHIEP CHUNG Nl 03 DOI VOI cnc Niroc cu 1. Vai net vl Chinh sach Nong nghiep chung Chinh sdch Ndng nghiep chung (Common Agricultural Policy - CAP) ciia Lien minh Chau Au (EU) la mdt trong nhiing cMnh sdch quan trgng nhdt ciia EU dua tren edc chuang trinh trg cap ndng nghiep. CAP ra ddi sau Chiln tranh thi gidi thu Hai nham gidi quylt nhirng lo ngai ve tinh trang thieu luong thuc dien ra trong sudt nhirng nam chiln tranh. Chfnh sach ndy dugc xdy dung vdi muc dfch hd trg va khuyen khfch ngudi ndng ddn sdn xudt nhieu luong thuc hon nira nhim dam bdo ngudn cung cdp luong thuc ben viing. Trong sudt thdi gian thuc thi, day Id chfnh sdch gdy nhieu tranh cai nhdt cd d ndi Khdi vd ngoai'Khdi. CAP dugc phan chia thdnh hai tru edt. Tru cpt thic nhdt Id cdc bien phdp hd trg thi trudng bao gdm cdc khoan thanh toan true tiep cd gan vdi dien tfch vd vat nudi, cdc bien phdp hd trg xuat khau, cdc bien phdp hd trg mua vd du trir can thiep. Tru cpt thic hai nham muc tieu hd trg rdng rai hon cho cac muc tieu phat trien ndng thdn va mdi trudng thdng qua cac bien phdp trg cdp cho ndng ddn tir bd cdc lgi Ich kinh te de bao ve mdi trudng (cdc bien phdp ndng nghiep mdi trudng), hd trg ndng dan d nhirng viing kem thudn lgi, ho trg dau tu ca sd ha tdng ndng thdn vd tai trang trai, ho trg ky thuat vd ddo tao. Ths. Tran Thi Thanh Huyen Vien Nghien ciru Chdu Au CAP cd ngan sach hang nam rdt ldn, trudc day chilm khoang tren 50%o tdng ngdn saeh EU. Tuy nhien, dilu ndy khien cho ITnh vuc ndng nghiep thieu dn dinh. Do vdy, trai qua 3 cude cdi each vdo cac nam 1992, 1993 va gdn day nhat la 2003, ngdn sach giam xudng cdn 45%) (55 ty euro/nam). Ngdn sdch ndy cd xu hudng tiep tue gidm trong khudn khd ngan.saQh EU giai doan 2014-2020. , ^ Trai qua han 40 nam thue thi, CAP da ed nhirng dieu chinh phii hgp vdi bdi cdnh phdt trien. Lan dieu chinh gdn day nhdt la vdo nam 2003 vdi nhiing thay ddi quan trgng, trong dd hai xu hudng ndi bat nhdt la hd trg ddc lap vdi quy md sdn xuat vd tang ngdn sach cho chinh sdch phdt trien ndng thdn. Cdi each CAP 2003 da tdc ddng manh den cdc mat kinh te, xa hdi va mdi trudng khdng chi eiia eac nude thdnh vien EU md cd cac nude ngoai Khdi. Bai viet nay chu yeu de cap den nhirng tac dgng ciia CAP 2003 ddi vdi cdc nudc EU. 2. Tac dong cua Chuong trinh cai each CAP nam 2003 doi vdi cac nuoc EU Trdi qua ban 6 nam thuc hien, Chuang trinh cdi each 2003 da dem Iai nhirng kit qua nhdt dinh. Cho den nay da cd mdt Ioat cac nghien cuu dugc tien hdnh nhim phdn tich vd danh gia cdc tdc ddng trong uang L^n ciia Chuang trinh cai each 2003 ddi vdi car ^QQ gia EU, bao gdm cd cdc nudc EUI5 ^j, nudc thdnh vien mdi ve san lugng va i , ^ '^de itd4tg, eua eai eddt. 37 nhdp ndng nghiep, cu the Id tdc ddng tdi mdt sd mat hdng bi edt gidm hd trg nhieu nhu ngii cdc, gao vd thit. Mdt sd tdc ddng dang chii y cua Chuang trinh cai each 2003 ddi vdi cac nudc EU bilu hien tren cac mat chii yeu sau: fl. Ddi vdi dat trong vd sdn lugng ngd cdc Cdc nudc thdnh vien mdi gdp them 38 trieu ha dien tfch ndng nghiep dugc sir dung vao 130 trieu ha cua cac nudc thdnh vien cii. Nhu vdy, dien tich canh tac ndng nghiep cua EU25 tang them 30% so vdi dien tfch ddt trdng ciia EU15. San lugng ciia EU25 khdng tang manh so vdi EUI5 do sdn lugng ciia cac nuac thdnh vien mdi d miic thap hon. Theo cdc nghien cuu, trong giai doan 2004-2010, Cdi each CAP nam 2003 du doan se ldm giam sdn lugng ngii cdc vd thay ddi tinh hinh phdn bd ddt dai cho cac loai cdy trdng cua cdc nudc EU15. Du doan tdng dien tfch canh tac ngu cdc se gidm 2,6% trong nam 2009 (tuang duang vdi 0,9 trieu ha), trong dd rieng dien tich trdng Ma mach den vd Ilia mi ddu gidm manh tdi 9,3% vd 10,4% (tucmg duang vdi 0,1 vd 0,4 trieu ha). Tinh trang suy gidm dien tfch trdng ngii cdc xdy ra chii ylu la do su canh tranh tir nhdm cay trdng phuc vu san xudt nang lugng, ciing vdi viec edt gidm ho trg gid cho ngii cdc vd nguyen tic tach rieng bat ddu cd hieu lire. Ben canh dd, thay ddi trong quy dinh ve san lugng Ilia mi ciing cd the dan tdi nhimg suy gidm tilp theo ve dien tich trdng. Ngodi ra, dien tich trdng cac loai cay cd hat ldy ddu cua EUI5 dugc du doan gidm 2,9%, trong khi cdc loai cay trdng phuc vu sdn xudt nang lugng du dodn tang 0,8 - 0,9 trieu ha - dien tich ndy vdn dugc sir dung de trdng ngii cdc. Bang T. Tac dong ciia cai each CAP nam 2003 doi voi phan bo dat dai cac nirdc EU15 giai doan 2004/2005 - 2009/2010 (Dan vi: trieu ha) Tong lu'ong ngu coc Liia my Liia my cii'ng Liia mach Ngo Liia mach den Tong luong cay hat lay dau Luong du' tru- ty nguyen 2004/05 35.7 -3.3% 14.0 -1.4% 3.5 -8.3% lO.I -1.8% 4.1 -1.6% I.O -21.4% 4.3 -3.6% 3.0 38.8% 2005/06 35.6 -3.1% 13.9 -1.0% 3.5 -10.4% 9.9 -3.3% 4.1 -1.3% 1.0 -18.4% 4.4 -2.3% 2.9 35.1% 2006/07 35.7 -2.8% 14.0 -0.9% 3.5 -9.9% lO.I -0.5% 4.2 -0.6% 1.0 -18.4% 4.4 -2.7% 2.8 32.2% 2007/08 35.7 -2.7% 13.9 -1.2% 3.5 -10.4% 9.9 -1.8% 4.2 -1.2% I.l -12.3% 4.5 -2.9% 2.9 30.8% 2008/09 35.7 -2.5% 14.0 -0.6% 3.5 -ILO 9.9 -0.8% 4.2 -0.2% 1.1 -7.8% 4.5 -3.5% 2.8 L28.8% 2009/10 35.6 -2.6% 13.9 -1.4% 3.6 10.4% 9.7 -0.9% 4.2 -1.9% I.l -9.3% 4.6 -2.9% 2.9 29.3% Nguon: European Commission Directorate-General for Agriculture (2003), trang 6. 38 NGHIEN CQU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°8 iOfl r'-J-V 10 Sdn lugng thit bd giam vd viec tang dien tfch trdng cd cho gia siie dien ra do thuc hien nguyen tdc tdch rieng trong thanh todn true tilp cd thi dan tdi gidm 7% dien tfch sdn xudt thue an gia siic d cac nudc EUI5. Tdng sdn lugng ngii cdc se gidm 2,1%) vdo nam 2009 do dien tfch canh tac gidm. Tuy vdy, su suy gidm ndy cd thi dugc bu lai mdt phan do viec tang hieu qua tir viec khdng canh tdc nhirng dien tich dat kem mdu md. Do vay, gid ngli cdc du dodn se cao hon, dan tdi viec md rdng dien tich trdng ngu cdc (n, /d lua mi). San lugng Ma ma-1 den "=^-u manh (khodng 10%)). Tdng tieu diing vd xudt khdu ngu cdc dugc duy tri d muc tuang duong vdi gia dugc dua ra trong Chuang trinh Nghi su nam 2000 hoac giam nhe, do vdy duy tri dugc su can bang tren thi trudng ngii cdc EUI5. Gia ngii cdc du dodn ciing gdn nhu khdng tang nhieu. Bdng 2 : Tac dong ciia cai each CAP nam 2003 doi vdi thj truo'ng ngu coc EU15 giai doan 2004/2005 - 2009/2010 (Dan vi: triiu tdn) San luong Tieu dung Xuat khau 2004/05 208.4 -2.7% 193.9 0.1% 29.3 -2.1% 2005/06 2I0.I -2.6% 194.0 -0.3% 29.0 -3.5% 2006/07 214.6 -2.1% 195.6 -0.4% 30.0 -2.2% 2007/08 216.0 -2.1% 196.3 -0.6% 30.0 -4.5% 2008/09 219.9 -1.5% 198.9 -0.3% 30.9 -2.8% 2009/10 220.0 -2.1% 199.2 -0.6% 30.9 -4.7% Nguon: European Commission Directorate-General for Agriculture (2003), trang 7. Neu xet tdng the cdc nudc EU25, nam ciia EU25 se vdo khodng 54,7 trieu ha. Mot 2006, sdn lugng ngii cdc EU25 sdn xuat ra trong nhirng yeu td dan den tinh trang nay la dugc du doan tang khoang 30%, trong khi bdi tfnh canh tranh giira cay trdng cung cap dien tich canh tac ngQ cdc tang 42%, sdn nang lugng vdi ngii cdc do su thay ddi cua lugng hat lay ddu tang 25%o trong khi dien nhirng dilu kien han cbl san xudt tren ca sd tich canh tdc cay hat ldy ddu tang 37%). Cac tu nguyen. Viec hd trg true tilp dudi dang dl xuat trong Cdi each CAP nam 2003 Id thanh toan cho timg trang trai, ddc lap vdi gidm dien tfch canh tdc ndng nghiep xudng quy md san xudt khien cho ''« ^f^]^ ^g^^ ^j^g khoang 4-5% so vdi cac chinh sdch cua san xudt tren ca sd tu nguyen chi o ru'c ban Chuang trinh nghi sir 2000, do vdy din nam cbl, chii yeu Id dp dung ddi vdi nhiin; Hen 2009, tdng dien tfch canh tac ndng nghiep tfch trudc dd dugc trdng lua my vd lun.,- v,_ ^de itaitg, eua edi edeh. 39 Bang 3: Tac dong cua CAP 2003 ddn phan bd dien tich canh tac cua EU25 giai doan 2004/2005 - 2009/2010 (Dem vi: trieu ha) Ngii coc Liia my Lua mach Ngo Liia mach den Hat ldy dau 2004/05 54.6 -5.1% 20.9 -1.8% 13.3 -3.5% 6.2 -2.8% 2.4 -24.0% 6.8 0.5% 2005/06 54.5 -4.9% 21.6 1.2% 13.7 0.4% 6.2 -3.0% 2.7 -14.6% 6.9 1.9% 2006/07 54.5 -4.3% 21.7 1.9% 13.6 1.0% 6.2 -2.8% 2.7 -12.0% 6.9 2.7% 2007/08 54.6 -4.2% 21.8 1.9% 13.4 1.2% 6.2 -2.9% 2.7 -10.6% 6.9 3.1% 2008/09 54.6 -4.2% 21.9 1.9% 13.3 1.4% 6.2 -2.9% 2.7 -10.9% 6.9 3.5% 2009/10 54.7 -4.1% 22.1 2.0% 13.2 1.6% 6.2 -2.9 2.7 -11.0% 6.9 3.9% Nguon: European Commission Directorate-General for Agriculture (2003), trang 12. Dien tfch canh tac ngii cdc cua EU25 du dodn se tang len, trong dd dien tfch canh tdc Ilia my la ldn nhdt. San lugng liia mach dugc du doan Id se tang do cac nudc thdnh vien mdi gia nhap. Du bdo cd nhirng tdc ddng rdt tfch cue ddi vdi gid hat lay ddu, khiln EU25 tiep tuc md rdng them 3,9%) tdng dien tfch canh tdc trong nam 2009, vd nhu vay, dien tfch canh tdc loai cay trdng ndy tang tir 6,8 trieu hecta nam 2002 len 6,9 trieu hecta nam 2009. Bdng 4: Tac dong cua CAP 2003 den san luotig ngu cdc cua EU25, giai doan 2004/2005 - 2009/2010 (Dan vi: triiu tdn) San Iiro'ng Tieu diing Thang du thi truo'ng 2004/05 262.6 -4.6% 248.7 0.5% 14.0 -11.73 2005/06 268.9 -3.3% 251.4 0.9% 17.4 -9.32 2006/07 271.7 -3.0% 252.7 1.0% 19.0 -8.65 2007/08 274.7 -3.0% 251.7 0.8% 22.9 -8.40 2008/09 277.5 -3.2% 253.3 0.7% 24.2 -8.76 2009/10 280.4 -3.2% 255.6 0.7% 24.9 -9.00 40 NGHIEN COU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°8 (H ?? LH San lugng liia my cua EU25 cd the dat 131,4 trieu tdn trong nam 2009, tang 1,2 % so vdi du bdo trong Chuong trinh nghi sir 2000. San lugng liia mach nam 2009 dat 57,8 trieu tdn, xap xi rnirc dua ra trong Chuang trinh nghi sir 2000. San lugng liia mach den gidm 20%). Lugng lua mach den du thira se gidm manh so vdi Chuang trinh nghi sir 2000 vd lugng du trir tfch My khodng 7-8 trieu tan se dugc giam dan nhd xuat khdu ra thi trudng the gidi. Tuy nhien, do Ma mach vd lua my du dodn cd trien vgng thi trudng tdt nen tdng sdn lugng ngii cdc cua EU25 se chi gidm nhe. b. Mat hdng thit Viec tang gia thirc ? T ch?" ' " - gi^ sue khiln quy md chan nudi gia siic cua EUI5 gidm dugc cho Id se diln ra trong ngan ban. Sdn lugng thit bd nam 2009 cua EUI5 dugc du dodn gidm khodng 2,7% (gidm khodng 200.000 tdn) so vdi muc cdng bd trong Chuong trinh nghi su 2000. Viec giam quy md chan nudi gia siic cimg vdi nguyen tac hd trg true tiep dudi dang thanh todn cho tirng trang trai, ddc lap vdi quy md san xuat cd anh hudng tdi khu virc nudi bd sira. Nam 2009, tdng sd bd nudi ciia EUI5 du dodn se gidm 3,5%o. Hinh 1: Anh hud'ng ciia Chirung trinh cai each CAP 2003 tdi san Iugng va gia thit bo cua EU15 trong giai doan 2004/2005 - 2009/2010 2003 Nguon: European Commission Directorate-General for Agriculture (2003), trang 8. Gia thdnh thit bd d cdc nudc EUI5 cd 2000. Gia tang khiln sue ieu dimg thit bd the tang maMi do ngudn cung ndi dia gidm. gidm khoang 1,8%. Ben cinh ac ngudn Nam 2009, gid thit bd tai EU15 du doan se cung gidm cdng vdi gia ndi &a tang ^iJng tang 7,1% so vdi Chuong trinh ngM sir khiln lugng xudt khdu thit bd cua E'Ji ^ ^^^ ^de ttaitq, eua edi eddt. 41 2009 gidm manh tdi 26% (tuong duong 30.000 tdn). Thi trudng thit bd cua toan bd 25 nudc EU ciing chiu tac ddng manh tir nhirng Cdi each CAP nam 2003. Viec hd trg true tiep dudi dang thanh todn cho tirng trang trai ddn tdi giam 6,6% san lugng thit bd cua todn EU25 so vdi cdc dieu Men de ra trong Chuang trinh nghi su 2000. Sdn lugng thit bd d cac nudc thdnh vien cii gidm va cd the se khdng tang tai cac nudc thdnh vien mdi, du doan se dat 8 trieu tdn trong nam 2009, tang 50.000 tdn so vdi nam 2004. Han ngach sira bd sung theo de xudt ciia Cdi each CAP nam 2003 se cd dnh hudng khdng ddng kl din sdn lugng thit bd ciia EU25. Din nam 2009, san lugng thit bd se chi tang them 20.000 tdn so vdi nam 2006 khi bat ddu dp dung bd sung han ngach sira. Lugng cung tang chdm gay dp lire den thi trudng, gid thit bd tai cdc nudc EU25 se tang 7,9%) so vdi viec thuc Men Chuang trinh nghi su 2000. Thang du cung thit bd tren thi trudng cd thi giam dang ke. Nam 2009 xuat khdu rdng thit bd cua EU25 du doan se chi dat 0,07 trieu tdn, gidm 0,25 trieu tdn so vdi cdc dilu kien trong Chuang trinh nghi sir 2000. Bdng 5: Tac dong cua CAP 2003 den thi truong thit bo cua EU25 giai doan 2004 - 2009 (Dan vi: triiu tdn) San luong Tieu dimg Thang du thi truo'ng Gia thanh san xuat (EUR/tdn) 2004 7.98 -4.7% 7.72 -3.9% 0.26 -0.09 2 676 8.8% 2005 7.97 -5.4% 7.76 -3.9% 0.20 -0.14 2 632 8.7% 2006 7.97 -5.9% 7.81 -3.9% 0.16 -0.18 2 587 8.5% 2007 7.98 -6.3% 7.87 -4.0% 0.11 -0.22 2 543 8.2% 2008 7.99 -6.4% 7.92 -3.5% 0.08 -0.25 2 508 7.1% 2009 8.02 -6.6% 7.94 -3.9% 0.07 -0.25 2 490 7.9% Nguon: European Commission Directorate- Cdi each CAP nam 2003 ciing dugc du doan se cd tdc ddng ldn ddi vdi nhirng ngdnh kinh doanh thit Ign va gia cam ciia EUI5 ndi rieng vd ciia EU25 ndi chung. Gid thuc an gia siic tang khdng chi dnh hudng den san lugng thit bd md cdn anh hudng manh din mat hdng thit Ign vd gia cdm tai cdc nudc General for Agriculture (2003), trang 13. EUI5. Tuy nhien, khac vdi nhirng bien ddng manh d khu vuc thit bd, sdn xudt vd tieu diing thit Ign vd gia cam du dodn se gidm nhe khoang 1% trong trung ban. Dien biln ndy la ket qud cua viec tang gid thit bd, khien mat hdng thit Ign va thit gia cdm cd sue canh tranh vl gia tdt hon thit bd. San 42 NGHIEN CCfU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°8 (1 AO lugng thit Ign vd gia cdm ciia EU25 cirng bi tac ddng It hon so vdi sdn lugng thit bd. Sdn lugng thit Ign nam 2009 ciia EU25 du dodn tang 3,2 % so vdi viec thuc hien Chuong trinh nghi su 2000. Tieu diing thit Ign tang 2,4% do gid gidm khoang 1,6% so vdi viec thuc Men Chuong trinh nghi sir 2000. Nam 2009, EU25 du kiln xudt khdu khoang 0,2 trieu tdn thit Ign. Ngoai ra, sdn lugng vd mire tieu thu gia cdm trong EU25 ciing tang nhe so vdi du bdo cac dieu kien trong Chuang trinh nghi su 2000. c. Mat hdng ba sda Do tdc ddng ciia Chuang trinh CAP 2003, tdng sdn lugng sira ciia EU25 tang 1,6% so vdi mire du kien trong Chuong trinh nghi sir 2000, dat 146,5 trieu tdn trong nam 2009. Cd dugc muc tang ndy Id do cdc nudc thdnh vien cii tang ban ngach them 2% so vdi cdc dilu kien trong Chuong truih nghi sir, do vdy san lugng siia trong cac nudc ndy tang ddng ke. Nam 2002, sdn lugng sira sdn xudt cho tieu diing ndi Khdi van chiem khodng 16% trong tdng sdn lugng sira cua 10 nudc thdnh vien mdi. Lugng sira sdn xudt vd tieu dung ngay tai gia dinh se ngdy cdng giam do su phdt trien tfch cue nen kinh te ndng thdn va he thdng an sinh xa hdi sau khi md rdng EU. Ddi vdi 10 nudc thdnh vien mdi, tdng san lugng sira, bao gdm ca sdn lugng ban ra tren thi trudng vd sdn lugng san xudt vd tieu dimg tai gia dinh se duy tri d muc khd dn dinh dudi tac ddng ciia CAP 2003. Cu the, sdn lugng siia ciia 10 qudc gia ndy se dat xap xi 22 trieu tan, gidm 0,4%) so vdi cdc dieu kien trong Chuang trinh nghi sir 2000. Tuy vdy, ngudn cung tir cac nudc thanh vien mdi vdn tang do ban ngach tang. Bdng 6: Tac dong cua CAP 2003 den san lugng sira EU25, giai doan 2004 - 2009 (Dan vi: triiu tdn) San luo-ng EU-25 San luo-ng EU-15 San lugng 10 nudc moi gia nhap Gia thanh san xuat (EUR/tdn) 2004 143.8 0.3% I2I.5 0.4% 22.3 -0.1% 280.3 -5.6% 2005 I44.I 0.2.% 121.9 0.4% 22.2 -0.5% 264.5 -5.6% 2006 144.4 0.3% 122.3 0.4% 22.1 -0.4% 256.5 -2.8% 2007 145.4 0.8% 123.4 1.0% 22.0 -0.2% 229.2 -7.6% 2008 147.0 1.5% 125.1 2.0% 21.9 -0.7% 224.2 -9.6% 2009 146.5 1.6% 124.6 2.0% 21.9 -0.4% 225.1 -9.9% Nguon: European Commission Directorate-General for Agriculture (2003), trang 14. ^de. itditq, eua edi eddt. 43 Viec tang ban ngach san lugng sira trong giai doan 2004/2005-2008/2009 se tuong duong vdi muc tang sdn lugng sira cua EU15 trong cimg thdi ky. Nam 2009, san lugng sira ciia cac nudc EUI5 se tang 2% so vdi muc de ra trong Chuong trinh nghi sir 2000. Muc tang sdn lugng ndy dat dugc trong ngan ban, vd sau dd giam ddn do sd lugng dan bd siia gidm. Ty le cat giam manh cua muc gid hd trg ddi vdi ba vd sira bdt gdy trong giai doan 2004/05-2008/2009 se khien cho gia sira gidm manh. TTinh 2: Nhung thay doi chinh trong han ngach san lugng va gia sua cua EU15 (Dan vi: trieu tan vd euro/100 kg) 1999.'00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 20a3/Od 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2006/09 2ft09/fO Ngudn: European Commission Directorate- Xu hudng tang sdn lugng sira d EUI5 Id do viec tang han ngach vd cat gidm hd trg gia ba. Dieu nay khien cho gid thi trudng cua mat hang nay trong nam 2009 du dodn se giam tuong irng (khoang 35% so vdi muc gid nam 2001 va 23% so vdi mirc gia du tinh nam 2009 neu thuc Men Chuang trinh nghi su 2000). Di ddi vdi xu hudng giam gid, san lugng ba cua EUI5 cirng se gidm khoang 2%. Ngugc lai vdi gia ba thdp, muc tieu thu ba trong EUI 5 nam 2009 du doan se lai tang manh, dat mirc 1,8% so vdi muc san lugng du tinh trong nam 2009 neu thuc hien Chuang trinh nghi su 2000. General for Agriculture (2003), trang 9. Ngudn cung giam cimg vdi sue mua trong Khdi tang khien sdn lugng xudt khdu ba ciia EUI5 du dodn giam 18% (ban 30.000 tan). Trong khi thi trudng ba td ra kem hdp dan thi sdn xudt phomat vd cac sdn pham ciia sira tuai (sira chua vd cac sdn pham sira len men) lai cd nhilu thuan lgi do gid sira gidm, nham dap ung nhu cdu tieu diing vdn dugc coi Id tang trudng dn dinh. Nam 2009, sdn lugng vd tieu dimg ba tai EUI5 du doan se tang khoang 1,5%, trong khi gia mat hdng nay se gidm khoang 5,5%) so vdi muc trong Chuong trinh nghi su 2000). Tfnh canh tranh vl gia cua ba do dd se giam ddn tdi gidm san lugng xuat khdu. 44 NGHIEN COU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°8 (11?! ?i>10 Hinh 3: Toan canh trg gia, gia thi tru'O'ng no! Khdi va gia thi gidi ddi vc i sua bot gay cua EU15 (Dan vi: EUR/100 kg) yCai each CAP 2Q03 | Ch/trij*h Nghi 5^2000 Gia thi tiuooig tine gioi (Gii cao nhat & thap nhat) Ngudn: European Commission Directorate-General for Agriculture (2003), trang 10. Trong giai doan 2004-2009, san lugng thdnh vien mdi, so vdi mirc 40%) trong san sira bdt gdy ciia EUI5 se gidm 10%. Cac yeu lugng sira theo ban ngach dugc dimg de san td nhu gid thi trudng ndi Khdi giam, ngudn xuat ciia cdc nudc thdnh vien cii. Sau khi gia cung sira bdt khdng kem gidm va ho trg tieu Miap, sdn lugng ba vd sii'a bdt gay se giam dung ndi Khdi gidm keo theo san lugng xudt va san lugng pho mat se tang d cac nudc khdu cho tieu dimg trong Khdi tiep tue giam 6,8%. Nam 2009, gia sira bdt gdy giam 4,8% so vdi muc de ra trong Chuong trinh nghi sir 2000. Theo cac dieu kien trong Chuang trinh thdnh vien cii. 4. Thu nhap tir nong nghiep Nam 2009, tdng sdn lugng ndng nghiep EU25 du dodn se gidm 3,4%) so vdi miic de ra trong Chuang trinh nghi sir 2000. Nguyen nghj su 2000, san lugng ba vd cdc san phdm nhan chfnh la do sdn lugng ngii cdc thdp ban tir sira, siia bpt gdy d cdc nudc thanh vien do viec thay ddi cdc dieu kien han cbl sdn mdi se tang do gia cdc mat hdng ndy se tang xudt tren ca sd tu nguyen va cac chfnh sdch sau khi cac nudc nay gia nhdp EU. Ca cdu ddi vdi cay trdng cung cap nang lugng cQng sdn lugng sira trong cac nudc thanh vien mdi nhu gia sira giam. Tdng thu nhdp thi trudng lam gia tang dp luc ddi vdi viec san xudt sd trong ITnh vuc trdng trgt cua toan bd 25 nudc Mgng ldn cac san phdm sii'a sa ehl chir thanh vien EU se gidm 1,3%), trong ITnh vuc khdng phai la san phdm cd gia tri cao nhu chan nudi, giam 6% so vdi muc dl ra trong phomat. Cd din 60% san lugng siia theo han Chuang triMi nghi sir 2000. Tu v nhien, cai ngach dugc dimg dl san xudt cac san pham each CAP nam 2003 nhan manh vs-; tinh sira (ba va sua bdt nguyen kem) d cdc nudc hieu qua ciia sdn lugng ndng nghiep ,,:ing ^de itS4tcp eua edi eddt. 45 each cho phep ndng ddn bd qua nhirng hdng hda kem canh tranh ma khdng bi mdt di khodn hd trg thanh toan true tilp. Dieu ndy cd the thdy rd trong ITnh vuc chan nudi vdi muc gidm tdng gia tri gia tang chi bang mdt nira so vdi mirc giam sdn lugng. Tuy nhien, tfnh trong cd ngdnh thi tdng gia tri gia tang gidm 2% so vdi muc de ra trong Chuang trinh nghi su 2000. Khi viec thanh todn true tilp dUgc dp dung vdi cac nudc thdnh vien mdi, muc gidm thu nhdp se thdp ban muc gidm tdng gid tri gia tang. Trong nam 2009, du doan thu nhdp ndng nghiep se thdp ban 1,3 % so vdi mirc de ra trong Chuong trinh nghi su 2000. Ddi vdi cdc nudc thdnh vien mdi, Cdi cdch CAP nam 2003 ddm bdo thu nhdp ndng nghiep tang nhd viec EU md rdng. Nam 2009, thu nhap ndng nghiep ciia 10 qudc gia nay tir thi trudng du dodn se tang 17%) so vdi thu nhdp nam 2002 khi chua md rdng EU. Sau khi bien phap ho trg thanh toan true tilp vd phat trien ndng thdn dugc triln khai cd the khien thu nhdp ndng nghiep thuc tl ciia cdc nudc thdnh vien mdi tang ban 45%. Mac dil doanh thu trong ITnh vuc ndng nghiep cua toan Khdi se thap ban, nhung nang sudt tang do dp dung nguyen tac tach rieng vd viec thanh todn true tiep cho tirng hd ndng ddn ciing trd nen hieu qud ban. Day Id mdt phdn ket qud cua viec tang cudng hieu qud chuyen giao thu nhdp ciia CAP sau khi cdi each. Bdn^ 7j Tac dong ciia CAP 2003 den thu nhap thuc te cua EU25 giai doan 2002 - Tong san lu'O'ng nong nghiep tinh theo gia thj truong Tong san lu'o'ng cay trong - Ngii coc - Hat lay dau Tong san pham vat nuoi - Su'a - Thjt bo - Thjt lo'n, gia cam, triing Tong gia trj gia tang Tong gia trj gia tang d6i voi cay trong Tong gia trj gia tang doi voi vat nuoi Tong gia trj gia tang tinh theo gia thj tru'ong bao gom h6 tro thanh toan true tiep 2002 97.0 I0I.9 91.7 95.9 101.9 86.6 98.5 2004 lOO.O -2.1% lOO.O -1.6% -5.9% - 0.7% lOO.O -2.7% -5.3% 3.6% 1.2% 100.0 -1.3% 100.0 -1.6% 100.0 -0.9% lOO.O -0.5% 2005 97.9 -2.2% 99.9 -1.7% -5.2% -1.1% 95.7 -2.8% -5.4% 2.8% 1.6% 97.7 -1.5% 99.9 -1.7% 94.3 -1.3% 98.3 -1.2% 2006 96.6 -1.5%) 99.9 -1.7% -5.3% 0.5% 93.0 -1.3% -2.5% 2.0% 1.7% 96.0 -1.1% 99.9 -1.7% 90.1 -0.1% 97.5 -0.9% 2007 94.1 -2.2% 100.2 -1.5% -5.6% 1.4% 87.6 -3.0% -6.9% 1.3% 1.3% 93.7 -1.6% 100.2 -1.5% 83.8 -1.9% 96.2 -1.2% 2008 93.3 -4.1% 100.6 -1.2% -5.9% 1.9% 85.5 -7.5% -8.2% 0.3% 0.9% 94.2 -2.7% 100.5 -1,3% 84.6 -5.1% 97.3 -1.7% -2009 2009 93.6 -3.4% 100.6 -1.3% -6.1% 2.2% 86.2 -6.0 -8.5% 0.7% 0.6% 94.0 -2.0% 100.5 -1.3% 83.9 -3.2% 97.2 -1.3% Nguon: European Commission Directorate-General for Agriculture (2003), trang 1 [...]... vuc san dodn se gidm nhe (-0,1%)) xuat thit bd va cim Hinh 4: Toan canh thu nhap nong nghiep cua EU1 5 dudi tac dong cua ChuoTig trinh nghi su 2000 va CAP 2003, giai doan 2004/2005 - 2009/2010 (Dan vi: % so vdi 2001) Nguon: European Commission Directorate-General for Agriculture (2003) , trang 11 Cdi each CAP 2003 gay ra cac tac ddng trong khu vuc chan nudi, cu the Id cim va khdng gidng nhau d cac khu vuc... vdo mirc giam thu nhap do cua EUI5 nam 2009 ddi vdi mat hang sira vd gidm sdn Iugng vd gidm thue it han cdy hat lay ddu se gidm tuong duong Id 5% Nhin chung, Cai each CAP r j -n 2003 vd 11% Tuy nhien, tdng thu trong khu vuc dugc du tfnh cd tdc ddng dang kl de ^i cd san xuat ngii cdc se duy tri mirc dn dinh, cdn cac nudc thdnh vien cu vd mdi cua ^y '^da ittutg, eua edi eudi 47 tdc ddng khdng gidng nhau... dugc chinh xdc dieu gi, nhung rd rdng, cude hudng Id ldm gidm dien tfch sdn xudt vd sdn khiing hodng ng dang dien ra tai chdu Au da lugng ciia nhieu san phdm ndng nghiep ciia vd dang gdy ra nhiing tdc ddng khdng mong EUI 5 trong khi dd lai ldm tang dien tich sdn dgi ddi vdi khu vuc ndng nghiep cila EU xudt vd sdn lugng sdn phdm ndng nghiep d Dilu ndy ddn tdi viec ddi hdi CAP phai cd nhieu nudc thdnh vien... nhdp Mac dii nhimg dieu chinh phii hgp vdi bdi cdnh phat vdy, cdi each ldn ndy eiia CAP du tfnh se trien mdi ldm tang thu nhap ndng nghiep cua cd hai nhdm nudc thdnh vien cii vd mdi ciia EU, rieng cdc nudc thdnh vien mdi se cd thu Tai lieu tham khao nhdp ndng nghiep tang nhilu so vdi trudc 1 GS Carlo Altomonte, GS Mario khi gia nhdp EU Ket luan Nava: Kinh te vd chinh sdch cita EU md rpng, NXB Chinh... vuc ndng nghiep ciia EU, dac biet la khu vuc EU" , Tap chi Nghien cuu Chdu Au, sd 3 trang trai Gia sSa mua tir cdc trang trai bdt (57), 2002 ddu giam vdo cudi nam 2008 khiln toan bd 3 Dinh Cdng Tudn vd Hd Thanh khu vuc nay lam vdo tinh trang khd khan Huong (2002), "NhUng diiu chinh chinh Do sdn lugng sira du thira vd rdt gid sdn sach nong nghiep chung cua EU" , Tap chi phdm, ndng dan EU da cd nhirng phdn... NGHIEN CGU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°8 0 Ddi vdi cac nudc EUI5, Cdi each CAP )^o •fH'i Du dodn, do gid siia, thit i^ coc nam 2003 cung cd nhung tdc ddng nhdt dinh gidm nen thu nhdp tir nc g nghic^ se giam, ddi vdi tinh trang thu nhdp tir ndng nghiep nhung sau dd, ngay khi gid cdc mat hdng ndy Thu nhdp tir ndng nghiep tinh tren mdi don phuc hdi, thu nhdp tir ndng nghiep ciia EUI5 vi lao ddng (lam... lugng sira du thira vd rdt gid sdn sach nong nghiep chung cua EU" , Tap chi phdm, ndng dan EU da cd nhirng phdn ung Nghien cuu Chau Au, sd 1 (43), 2003 gay gat, keu ggi hdnh ddng ddi phd vdi biln ddng gid cd vd gidm ddn cdc ban ngach sira 4 http://ec.europa .eu - website ciia Uy ban Lien minh Chau Au ... gian) cua se tang len Mdt sd nghien cuu phdn tfch cho EUI5 tang 8,5% trong giai doan 2001-2009 thdy tdc ddng ciia viec edt gidm trg gid va Nhu vdy, so vdi muc du bdo trong Chuang tang ban ngach ddi vdi tang thu nhdp trong trinh nghi su 2000, thu nhap tir ndng nghiep khu vuc sdn xudt sua Id rat nhd, tuy nhien lai sau khi tiln hdnh cdi cdch CAP nam 2003 du tae ddng tdt tdi thu nhdp trong khu vuc san dodn . Nguon: European Commission Directorate-General for Agriculture (2003) , trang 7. Neu xet tdng the cdc nudc EU2 5, nam ciia EU2 5 se vdo khodng 54,7 trieu ha. Mot 2006, sdn lugng ngii cdc EU2 5. dgng ciia CAP 2003 ddi vdi cdc nudc EU. 2. Tac dong cua Chuong trinh cai each CAP nam 2003 doi vdi cac nuoc EU Trdi qua ban 6 nam thuc hien, Chuang trinh cdi each 2003 da dem Iai. ciia EUI5 du dodn se gidm 3,5%o. Hinh 1: Anh hud'ng ciia Chirung trinh cai each CAP 2003 tdi san Iugng va gia thit bo cua EU1 5 trong giai doan 2004/2005 - 2009/2010 2003 Nguon: European