I H C KINH T THÀNH PH H CHÍ MINH KHOA KINH T PHÁT TRI N Chuyên ngành: Kinh t Th nh Giá KHOÁ LU N T T NGHI P tài: XÂY D NG T SU T CHI T KH U NGÀNH TH C PH M VI T NAM GVHD TS HAY SINH SVTH Hà Kim Tu n Anh L p Th MSSV 31091020770 TP.HCM, tháng 3.2013 nh Giá K35 L IC Trong th i gian th c t th c hi t ns Công Ty c ph ct p r t nhi u nh giá d ch v tài Vi t Nam (VVFC) hồn thành báo cáo này, em xin chân thành c ng d em su t trình th c hi th i, xin chân thành c d truy em v Em xin bày t lịng c d ch v tài Vi t Nam vi ng i h c Kinh T t ki n th c b ích c bi t, xin c TS.Hay Sinh y i n anh, ch t i công ty Th u ki n cho em có m t khóa th c t ch Nguy n Lê Thu Hà ng d nh giá yb em tài t t nghi p Xin kính chúc anh, ch th t nhi u s c kh e, hồn thành t t m i cơng tác, ln t p th u ngành Th nh Giá Con xin chân thành c Cha m n ng t ki n cho có th hồn thành t t nh t công vi c h c t p t ng C u n bè c hoàn thi R t mong quý th y, cô anh ch cơng ty sót, nh m l n khơng th tránh kh i hy v ng nh ng th cho nh ng sai c nh ng ý ki giúp em hoàn ch nh báo cáo th c t p t t nghi p Xin trân tr ng c TP H Chí Minh, tháng Sinh viên Hà Kim Tu n Anh ii t t nghi p GVHD: TS Hay Sinh L tài nghiên c u c a Nh ng k t qu s li u khóa lu c th c hi n t i Công ty th nh giá d ch v tài Vi t Nam, khơng chép b t k ngu n khác Tơi hồn tồn ch u trách nhi m tr nhà tr ng v s c TP H Sinh viên th c t p Hà Kim Tu n Anh SVTH: Hà Kim Tu n Anh Th nh giá K35 t t nghi p NH N XÉT C iii GVHD: TS Hay Sinh CT P nh giá d ch v tài Vi t Nam SVTH: Hà Kim Tu n Anh Th nh giá K35 t t nghi p iv GVHD: TS Hay Sinh NH N XÉT C A GI NG VIÊN Xác nh n c a GVHD SVTH: Hà Kim Tu n Anh Th nh giá K35 GVHD: TS Hay Sinh v t t nghi p Tên tác gi : HÀ KIM TU N ANH tài: Xây d ng t su t chi t kh u ngành th c ph m Vi t Nam Lý ch Hi n t d tài th nh giá tr doanh nghi p có r t nhi c m t giá tr doanh nghi p c th c áp Vi t Nam vi c áp d ng ch có áp d ti n chi t kh n chi t kh tin c c ph thu c vào y u t dòng thu nh p, t l c bi t t su t chi t kh nghi p ph n b h n ch n c tính giá tr doanh c tính khơng xác Vi chi t kh u q th p ho c cao s làm c tính t su t n giá tr doanh nghi ng Tuy nhiên vi Vi c tính t su t chi t kh u g p nhi ng vào c bi t doanh nghi p có m t s y u t c a doanh nghi p làm cho tính tốn t su t chi t kh xác Chính v y, tác gi ti c khơng c tính t su t chi t kh u trung bình ngành ng d ng vào vi c xây d ng t su t chi t kh u ngành th c ph m Gi ng p thông qua ba mô hình nh chi t kh u dịng c t c, v n hóa thu nh p chi t kh u dòng ti c giá tr doanh nghi p b ng cách hi n giá dòng ti n theo m t t su t chi t kh u nh hình chi t kh u s có m t t su t chi t kh u nh ph u tác gi trình bày tồn b ph n lý thuy t tác gi nh ng v i m i mô nh lý lu n v t su t chi t kh u Trong ng quan v t su t chi t kh u, vai trị hình thái c a t su t chi t kh u Các t su t chi t kh tài nghiên c u là: T su t v n hóa; Chi phí s d ng v n ch s h u Chi phí s d ng v n bình quân gia quy n Thông qua t su t chi t kh u có mơ hình lý thuy ch n nh Qua c tính chi phí s d ng v n (Re) chi phí s d ng v n bình quân gia quy n (WACC) SVTH: Hà Kim Tu n Anh Th nh giá K35 GVHD: TS Hay Sinh vi t t nghi p c tính chi phí s d ng v n ch s h u (Re), tác gi c tính là: S d ng nh Gordon; Mơ hình nh giá tài s n v n (CAPM) mơ hình k t h p CAPM t s y u t khách quan vè th ng ng Vi t Nam n cho vi c s d nh Gordon khơng kh thi nên tác gi ch ch c tính chi phí s d ng v n ch s h u là: Mơ hình CAPM mơ hình k t h p CAPM M&M i v i chi phí s d ng v n bình quân gia quy n (WACC), công th WACC = Theo công th gi D E Re + (1 D+E D+E ng v i m i Re c tính t C )R d c tính theo hai mơ hình, tác c chi phí s d ng v n bình qn WACC theo mơ hình CAPM CAPM M&M p theo, tác gi trình bày h th ng phân ngành ng quan ngành th c ph m Vi p s li tài trình bày cách tính c tính t su t chi t kh doanh nghi p ngành th c ph m cu trung bình c Vi ng v i c tính t su t chi t kh u c tính Xét k t qu c th áp d ng gi i pháp Thơng qua k t qu tính tốn, có th so sánh t su t chi t kh u trung c tính theo hai mơ hình CAPM mơ hình k t h p CAPM có s chênh l ch nhi u C th mơ hình CAPM M&M M&M có t su t chi t kh u bình qn ngành l i mơ hình CAPM, ngun nhân ta l y beta ngành th c ph m Hoa K u v n ch s h u n c a Hoa K u ch nh v Vi t s beta bình quân ngành c a ngành th c ph m t i Hoa K i l n so v i ngành th c ph m c a Vi i l y s li SVTH: Hà Kim Tu n Anh u ch nh v chúng s l n phân tích Th nh giá K35 GVHD: TS Hay Sinh vii t t nghi p M CL C L IM U LÝ LU N V T SU T CHI T KH U 1.1 T su t chi t kh u 1.1.1 1.1.2 Vai trò c a t su t chi t kh u 1.2 Các hình thái c a t su t chi t kh u 1.2.1 Hình thái th nh t: T su t v n hóa 1.2.1.1 c tính 1.2.1.2 m h n ch 1.2.2 Hình thái th hai: Chi phí s d ng v n ch s h u (Re) 1.2.3 Hình thái th ba: Chi phí s d ng v n bình quân gia quy n (WACC) 1.3 nh t su t chi t kh u 1.3.1 nh chi phí s d ng v n ch s h u (Re) 1.3.1.1 S d ng 1.3.1.2 S d nh Gordon nh giá tài s n v n (CAPM) 1.3.1.3 Mơ hình k t h p CAPM M&M 1.3.1.4 S d ng mơ hình nhân t 11 1.3.1.5 Nh n xét 12 1.3.2 nh chi phí s d ng v n bình qn có tr ng s (WACC) 13 T NG QUAN NGÀNH TH C PH U NG 14 2.1 Gi i thi u t ng quan v h th ng phân ngành 14 2.1.1 H th ng phân ngành Vi t Nam 14 2.1.2 m phân ngành c 2.2 T ng quan ngành th c ph 2.2.1 tài 15 u ng 15 m ngành th c ph m 15 2.2.2 Các công ty ngành 15 SVTH: Hà Kim Tu n Anh Th nh giá K35 viii t t nghi p GVHD: TS Hay Sinh NH T SU T CHI T KH U TRUNG BÌNH NGÀNH TH C PH M 17 3.1 nh t su t chi t kh u trung bình ngành kinh t 17 3.2 Tính su t sinh l i v n ch s h u (Re) 18 3.2.1 g pháp 01: S d u Mơ hình Gordon 18 3.2.1.1 Cơng th c tính: 18 3.2.1.2 nh 18 3.2.2 d ng mơ hì nh giá tài s n v n (CAPM) 19 3.2.2.1 nh công th c thơng s c n tính tốn 19 3.2.2.2 c 2: tìm ki m ngu n s li u tính tốn thơng s 19 3.2.2.3 v c vào cơng th tính Re 21 3.2.3 d ng mơ hình k t h p CAPM M&M 22 3.2.3.1 nh công th c thơng s c n tính tốn 22 3.2.3.2 c 2: Tìm ki m s li u tính tốn thơng s 22 3.2.3.3 v c vào cơng th tính Re 24 3.3 Tính WACC 25 ÁP D NH T SU T CHI T KH U TRUNG BÌNH NGÀNH TH C PH M 27 4.1 Tính tốn t tr ng c a công ty ngành th c ph m 27 4.2 c tính t su t sinh l i v n ch s h u (Re) 28 4.2.1 S d ng mơ hình CAPM 28 4.2.1.1 c tính h s beta c a doanh nghi p ngành theo k c tính tu n 28 4.2.1.2 c tính t su t sinh l i v n ch s h u (Re) cho doanh nghi p ngành 29 4.2.2 S d ng mơ hình k t h p CAPM M&M 29 4.3 c tính chi phí n vay (Rd) 31 SVTH: Hà Kim Tu n Anh Th nh giá K35 27-04-12 1.74% -0.83% -2.39% 1.54% 2.80% 11.69% -7.14% 5.95% 8.82% 0.00% 3.33% -5.17% 1.89% -2.17% 8.33% 1.90% 3.81% -3.70% -8.70% -1.80% 3.23% -13.80% -1.41% 0.56% 0.00% 20-04-12 0.69% -2.03% 4.50% 0.62% -13.36% 1.32% 22.81% 0.00% -5.03% -1.97% -2.17% 0.00% 14.22% 2.22% 6.67% -12.50% -4.55% 12.03% 9.23% -6.06% 8.40% -10.13% -1.10% -6.80% 13-04-12 3.38% 18.84% 6.38% 1.89% 13.30% 15.15% 21.28% 2.44% 8.48% -1.30% -0.72% 1.75% -1.28% 10.66% 17.65% -4.76% 23.60% 19.18% -5.71% 14.41% 8.97% -1.62% -0.56% 06-04-12 1.45% 12.50% -2.08% 8.93% -6.03% -5.71% 0.00% 3.54% -4.90% 1.32% 4.91% 0.00% 0.43% 1.67% 2.68% 9.57% -5.82% 2.55% 20.88% 2.78% 13.60% 9.66% 3.31% -5.41% 7.77% 3.57% 0.54% 0.00% 30-03-12 -2.88% 25.17% 2.13% 6.59% 30.34% -4.11% -7.84% -1.49% -0.57% -3.80% -9.25% -0.87% -7.14% 2.56% -6.29% -3.36% 5.00% 25.32% -18.77% 0.83% -5.13% -3.74% 3.70% -4.17% 0.00% 23-03-12 3.56% 2.08% 0.53% -6.19% 27.14% 4.29% -5.56% -0.50% 8.72% 1.28% 8.15% 1.77% -2.33% 7.34% 6.00% 0.85% 1.12% 30.22% 22.68% 0.00% 11.43% 3.22% -3.57% 4.92% 0.00% 16-03-12 1.48% 4.35% -1.06% -3.64% 11.11% 6.06% 8.00% 10.38% 1.90% 1.30% 13.45% 0.00% -2.27% -2.68% -6.83% -4.07% -0.56% -5.21% 26.52% 3.45% 9.37% -4.01% 0.00% 0.00% -6.58% 09-03-12 -1.71% -2.13% 1.61% 11.85% -9.35% -8.33% 0.00% 3.10% -12.26% -0.65% 0.85% -8.87% 0.76% 14.18% -7.52% 2.29% 6.67% 0.00% 3.57% -11.11% 0.93% -3.45% 0.55% 0.00% 02-03-12 3.83% -4.08% -6.53% 5.88% 5.30% 0.00% 19.05% 0.28% 3.46% -6.63% 2.61% 13.76% -8.39% 5.66% 10.17% 1.44% 8.13% -2.23% 1.69% -2.13% -6.67% 20.00% 11.46% -5.23% -1.09% 0.00% 24-02-12 4.98% 15.75% 1.02% 4.08% 0.76% -6.49% 7.27% 0.87% -1.19% 4.07% 2.83% -0.69% 10.28% -3.47% 0.00% 5.92% 0.00% 7.80% 4.35% 3.45% 18.52% -4.97% 1.10% 0.00% 17-02-12 -0.42% 3.25% -4.37% 4.70% -1.50% 16.67% 7.69% 18.75% -0.30% -2.27% -3.45% -3.91% -2.75% 4.73% 1.90% 3.60% -8.89% -8.15% -4.84% 0.00% 0.00% 3.57% -6.90% 4.55% 2.82% 0.00% 10-02-12 0.82% 3.36% 11.35% -3.70% 0.76% 13.79% 29.73% 0.61% -4.86% 11.54% 9.52% -0.91% 5.77% -4.55% 7.75% 1.50% -0.54% 2.20% -1.80% 0.88% -6.67% -15.26% 7.69% 1.14% 0.00% 03-02-12 7.69% 1.71% 1.65% 4.74% -12.00% 13.73% -9.76% 16.25% 0.82% 7.59% 8.81% 8.91% 3.77% 5.74% 1.53% -1.07% 12.35% -1.33% 5.56% 3.45% 21.74% 8.33% 3.55% 0.00% 20-01-12 5.28% 2.63% 1.11% -3.33% 0.67% 4.08% 14.57% 7.94% -0.68% 5.46% 5.21% 8.16% 0.00% -12.67% 8.72% 6.58% 5.14% -6.09% 7.41% 1.61% 3.94% 3.05% 0.00% 13-01-12 5.23% 0.88% 1.12% -6.61% 6.43% 6.52% -8.89% 11.76% 5.26% 17.67% -5.36% -24.44% 0.69% -3.17% 10.98% -9.09% 1.03% 1.67% 14.50% 0.00% 0.00% -2.73% 15.00% 3.85% 23.88% 0.79% 3.14% 0.00% 06-01-12 -4.24% 1.80% 2.30% 7.08% -4.11% 0.00% 0.38% 10.57% 0.69% -6.90% -4.42% 1.23% 9.17% -1.71% -7.32% 2.80% -2.91% 4.00% -9.05% -4.55% -8.09% 0.00% -1.29% 0.91% -0.57% -0.83% 12.31% 2.22% 8.33% 38.91% -1.37% 6.84% 1.12% -0.91% 1.04% 14.29% -0.83% 30-12-11 2.54% 4.35% 0.00% 1.23% 2.88% 4.04% -13.79% -2.21% 0.00% -3.35% 0.00% 23-12-11 -2.68% -0.90% -2.78% -3.20% -13.91% 0.00% 8.51% 14.55% 12.70% 38.21% 4.29% -6.86% 3.70% 3.51% 8.49% -5.91% -9.96% 8.20% -1.10% 0.00% -1.64% -0.40% -11.70% -2.17% 8.62% 30.06% 2.19% -0.97% -9.45% 11.34% 0.00% -3.64% 1.09% -4.65% -3.88% 10.43% -21.62% 2.78% 6.58% 11.11% 1.46% -2.97% -1.10% 19.20% 10.77% 16-12-11 -9.43% 11.67% -13.95% -18.51% -3.94% -1.63% 0.00% 09-12-11 -1.75% -3.57% 0.00% 0.00% 6.88% 0.00% 7.41% -3.85% 29.37% 3.01% 0.00% -4.27% -0.61% 1.04% 3.64% -13.39% 3.37% -8.56% -3.59% 12.75% 0.00% 0.00% -5.22% 0.55% 0.00% 02-12-11 0.13% 5.66% -5.18% 12.05% 15.11% -6.12% 0.00% 0.32% -0.79% 1.53% -0.48% -0.85% -2.65% 2.13% 0.92% 4.96% -3.26% 18.35% 3.24% 2.00% 19.44% 0.00% 3.88% -33.21% 0.00% 25-11-11 1.00% 2.91% 8.43% 6.67% -4.79% -2.00% 0.00% -0.64% 0.00% 0.77% 0.98% 3.51% 6.27% 0.00% -3.54% -12.95% 7.60% 5.33% 0.93% 1.01% -21.74% 0.00% -8.51% 0.74% 0.00% 18-11-11 -4.21% 0.98% -7.77% -4.55% -2.67% 0.00% -3.57% -4.57% 0.00% -4.41% -7.24% -8.06% -0.31% -3.09% -3.47% -6.56% 2.04% -5.73% 2.06% -8.00% 0.98% -4.73% -1.45% 0.00% 11-11-11 -3.48% -5.56% -40.62% -14.40% 0.00% -3.85% 0.00% -2.09% 0.00% -7.48% 1.84% -0.80% -4.48% -1.02% -1.74% 10.85% -1.37% -3.68% -3.29% -0.87% 1.04% -9.09% 0.00% 0.00% -1.43% 0.00% 04-11-11 -2.72% -6.90% -0.61% -7.89% -5.06% 0.00% 0.00% -1.18% 0.00% -8.13% -0.46% 0.00% -0.30% -2.00% -3.01% 0.69% -2.56% 8.57% -0.43% -8.57% -6.78% -6.15% 2.07% 9.38% 0.00% 28-10-11 2.70% 0.00% 3.15% 13.41% 4.64% 4.00% 0.00% 0.89% 0.00% -0.62% 2.35% 2.46% 9.09% 8.70% 6.40% 0.00% 3.17% -3.45% -1.29% -2.78% 1.72% 0.00% 18.85% 0.00% 2.70% 21-10-11 -0.84% -0.85% -2.16% 2.07% -7.36% 2.04% 0.00% -1.18% 0.00% -4.17% -1.39% 7.02% 2.67% -1.08% 0.81% 4.32% -4.55% -3.33% 2.64% -0.92% 1.75% -5.80% 1.67% 0.00% 0.00% 14-10-11 -0.84% -2.50% 2.53% -5.49% 0.62% -9.26% 0.00% -2.86% 0.00% 1.20% -0.46% 3.64% 1.69% -2.11% -3.88% 6.11% 7.61% 0.00% -1.30% -4.39% -10.94% 0.00% 2.56% -1.54% 0.00% 07-10-11 -2.25% -0.83% 1.94% 13.33% -2.41% -6.90% 3.70% -1.69% -23.03% -2.35% 0.46% -8.33% 6.12% 2.15% -2.27% -1.50% -7.54% -1.96% -0.86% 3.64% 6.67% -5.22% 0.00% 4.00% 0.00% 30-09-11 -2.88% -0.82% -1.59% 1.81% -7.78% -1.69% 8.00% 0.28% 6.45% 3.03% -1.82% 4.12% -2.11% -2.94% -10.74% -2.93% 2.00% -0.43% -0.90% -11.76% 6.74% 2.63% -3.10% 0.00% 23-09-11 -3.68% 0.00% 0.32% -14.67% 13.92% 1.72% -7.41% 0.85% 0.00% -2.37% -1.35% -5.51% 15.89% -6.32% 0.00% 3.03% -6.29% 0.00% -5.06% -0.43% -3.48% 9.68% 6.90% -5.00% 2.38% 0.00% 16-09-11 -0.61% 2.52% -1.57% 23.92% 4.64% -1.69% 22.73% -7.85% 0.00% -2.87% -3.04% 12.69% -4.04% 7.95% -4.35% -3.64% 5.13% 0.43% 0.00% 0.00% -7.00% -1.64% -3.82% 0.00% 09-09-11 5.65% -3.25% 1.59% 6.09% -9.58% 0.00% -2.22% -1.80% 0.00% 1.16% -0.43% 19.64% 0.68% 0.00% 0.73% 8.55% -4.88% -9.20% 10.77% -0.85% 4.55% 3.33% 14.33% -12.23% 2.34% -5.13% 01-09-11 7.64% 6.96% -0.95% -6.19% 14.38% 7.27% 0.00% 5.14% 0.00% 8.86% 14.36% 12.00% 4.24% 3.53% 1.48% -6.75% -2.38% 12.07% 0.00% 7.84% 15.38% -12.79% 6.92% 6.67% 0.00% 26-08-11 0.90% 0.00% 2.92% 15.38% 11.45% 1.85% -8.16% 7.87% 0.00% 3.95% 1.51% -0.99% -3.74% -3.41% 7.14% -7.39% 0.48% 8.75% 3.98% -5.56% 1.96% 9.55% 4.00% 2.56% 0.00% 19-08-11 4.40% 5.50% 0.00% -22.88% 0.77% 0.00% 11.00% 0.00% -0.65% -1.49% 5.21% 8.49% 0.00% 2.44% -1.68% -2.79% -8.57% -1.74% 9.09% 0.00% 2.28% -3.85% 1.74% 0.00% 12-08-11 -4.24% -0.91% -2.84% 22.92% -3.70% 0.00% -7.55% 18.46% 0.98% 0.00% -2.55% 0.50% -4.00% -4.24% 2.33% 3.36% 9.15% 13.16% -5.41% -0.43% 0.00% -8.93% -7.25% -3.70% 0.00% 0.00% 05-08-11 -1.18% -1.79% -1.25% 10.98% 3.85% -12.90% -4.41% 0.00% 0.00% -1.88% 1.01% 8.11% 1.07% 6.17% 5.31% 0.00% -9.09% 0.00% -1.28% -6.67% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 29-07-11 -0.86% -2.61% 0.63% -6.99% -3.70% 1.64% -9.33% -3.16% 6.90% -3.03% -2.45% 1.65% 0.00% 3.85% -4.24% -4.65% -0.48% 0.00% -0.85% -3.88% 10.43% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.88% -7.58% -1.86% 0.00% -2.37% -2.39% -5.70% 1.45% -3.70% -2.48% -9.47% 20.75% 0.00% -0.42% 0.88% -7.69% 10.70% 0.00% 0.88% 6.84% -7.47% 0.00% 1.81% -4.50% -7.95% 1.68% -5.00% -5.36% 0.00% -1.25% -9.52% -5.80% -6.56% 0.00% -1.74% 6.18% -8.42% 0.00% 3.11% 2.96% 23.40% -8.96% -3.13% -9.64% 17.00% 15.25% 9.28% 3.53% 13.33% -12.28% 2.19% 0.00% -3.23% 9.57% 0.00% -6.43% -4.93% 5.50% 0.00% 6.71% 0.00% -3.28% 8.26% 0.00% 1.90% -1.12% 0.52% 8.65% 10.74% -1.16% -0.94% -9.52% 9.60% -9.76% 7.83% -7.26% -10.39% 0.00% 0.00% -0.91% 0.00% 15.00% 1.36% -1.54% -5.43% -1.68% 6.62% 0.00% -2.55% 1.58% -0.67% 1.18% 2.91% 0.00% 3.33% -6.10% 0.00% 10.94% 3.77% -13.08% -13.04% -4.55% 1.56% 2.38% -2.99% 0.00% -5.95% -1.79% -5.00% 1.69% -5.56% -7.21% -4.91% 3.02% 12.72% -8.00% 2.36% 0.81% 11.43% -0.79% -0.83% -13.68% 2.09% 8.47% 1.92% 8.35% 5.26% 4.21% 9.52% 5.48% 0.00% 5.00% -1.34% 0.00% 12.75% 12.00% -5.66% -1.34% 12.50% 8.82% 0.00% 12.00% 0.00% 0.80% 1.68% 6.74% 0.00% 9.26% 1.96% -5.50% 7.94% -5.79% 0.00% 18.64% -2.67% -1.54% -9.09% 0.81% 0.00% 2.76% 15.22% -2.61% -3.61% -0.97% 1.92% 2.46% 23.24% 11.11% -0.83% 2.30% 0.00% -3.57% 0.00% 10.00% 27-05-11 -5.11% -5.47% -3.06% -23.04% 0.67% -9.72% 0.00% 2.78% -22.29% -5.84% 3.31% 10.37% -5.25% -1.19% -1.90% 1.96% 1.67% -7.69% -10.31% 0.00% -1.75% -5.56% -2.31% -9.76% -8.57% 0.68% -8.00% -0.67% -6.49% -7.69% 0.00% -8.88% -4.26% -3.28% -8.70% -6.25% 0.00% -8.05% -8.52% -6.47% -8.49% 0.00% -5.79% -3.57% -2.75% 13-05-11 1.48% 0.72% -0.34% 6.38% -5.66% -1.28% -2.94% 13.38% 3.93% 11.00% -8.91% 20-05-11 -5.15% 19.83% 0.52% 0.00% -2.87% -2.76% 2.54% 2.76% 6.98% -5.88% 0.00% -1.14% 0.00% 0.00% 3.73% -2.75% 0.00% -18.79% 4.67% 0.00% 06-05-11 -1.54% -5.44% 6.16% 7.80% -1.85% -2.50% 9.03% -4.20% -6.91% -3.33% -3.33% -4.07% 0.31% 1.71% 4.51% 3.53% 0.00% 2.27% -4.29% -1.80% 0.00% -4.49% 1.90% 0.00% 29-04-11 5.19% 0.68% 1.47% -16.15% -1.82% -2.44% -5.88% -0.98% -6.93% 0.00% 24.24% -9.72% -0.39% 0.00% -2.22% 0.00% 4.72% 0.00% -2.50% 10.53% 0.00% -1.00% -2.67% -3.20% 5.69% 0.00% 2.50% 0.66% -1.92% 0.00% -9.09% 8.79% 1.41% 0.91% 5.41% 13.95% -4.69% 22-04-11 7.78% 22.69% -7.53% 16.22% -4.83% -7.91% -0.99% -1.46% -6.67% -2.75% -4.83% -5.88% 0.53% 0.00% 15-04-11 -0.71% -3.85% -2.09% -5.38% -2.37% 0.00% 0.00% -3.47% 0.00% 0.00% -1.20% 9.64% 0.00% -5.98% -2.27% -1.82% 1.83% 0.00% 2.24% 0.67% 0.00% 5.07% -9.09% -2.07% 0.00% 08-04-11 1.11% 1.30% -0.35% 4.84% -13.78% -5.88% -4.40% 0.47% 6.88% -0.46% -0.89% 1.22% 0.00% 2.63% 1.54% -2.14% -2.85% -3.81% 1.52% -5.70% 5.83% 7.37% -15.00% 2.12% 0.00% 01-04-11 0.33% -4.35% -0.35% -8.15% -0.51% 10.39% 8.16% 0.00% 0.00% -1.81% -0.30% 3.80% 1.43% 0.88% 0.00% 4.48% -0.35% 0.00% -0.38% -1.25% 1.98% -9.57% 6.28% 0.00% 0.00% 25-03-11 -0.74% 1.90% -4.93% 0.00% 1.03% -2.53% 5.00% -4.44% -5.97% -0.45% 0.90% 0.00% 5.61% -2.26% 4.69% 0.71% 5.00% -5.36% -2.44% 7.45% 14.62% -1.43% 2.72% 0.00% 18-03-11 -6.87% -4.24% -4.40% 8.00% -12.95% 0.00% -6.67% -6.25% -11.84% -0.89% -2.90% 1.28% 16.13% -1.41% 8.08% 0.76% 4.07% 1.45% 0.00% 5.26% -5.20% -4.08% 10.26% -2.33% 0.00% -2.44% 11-03-11 7.82% 8.55% 6.71% 11.11% 3.70% 15.38% 0.00% -10.59% 5.16% 2.07% 9.41% -0.28% -9.23% -1.08% 0.00% 4.31% 10.19% 6.52% -0.73% -8.90% 4.55% 2.50% -1.67% -10.06% -5.40% 1.35% -2.26% 14.04% -3.81% -16.94% 2.90% -1.17% -1.93% -1.57% -4.91% -1.76% 0.00% -5.20% -7.65% -6.12% -19.59% 8.26% -0.56% 0.00% 25-02-11 -7.32% -8.15% -0.32% -3.48% -1.34% -1.11% -4.95% -19.21% -8.00% -3.12% -0.27% -2.31% 0.35% -0.70% 0.00% 0.75% 1.80% -10.09% -12.31% -4.80% -1.67% -4.76% 18-02-11 -3.10% -8.91% -5.95% 2.22% -7.82% -9.09% 4.59% 13.49% 6.92% 10.67% 3.13% 12.73% 14.73% 5.60% 04-03-11 -1.25% 10.11% -2.78% -14.61% -4.26% -1.94% 0.56% -2.15% 5.74% -6.47% -0.35% -0.69% 0.00% -6.64% -2.91% 1.87% 2.63% -8.40% -2.70% 0.00% 11-02-11 1.84% -4.27% 2.13% -7.79% 1.25% 2.06% 20.00% -1.82% 14.10% -2.89% 3.45% 2.91% 0.54% -8.27% -2.11% 4.40% 2.86% -2.44% -4.67% -2.82% 0.00% 0.00% -1.96% -1.07% -4.11% 28-01-11 -1.71% 1.44% 0.00% -2.40% 0.00% -1.02% 11.70% 3.77% 0.00% -1.63% -3.06% -7.03% -1.33% 9.02% 1.43% -2.50% 2.19% -4.65% 4.17% 6.63% -1.83% 2.70% 0.79% 0.00% 9.50% 21-01-11 6.19% -2.35% 0.00% 5.93% 0.84% 2.08% 0.00% 0.95% 0.00% 3.80% 1.41% 25.85% 0.00% 0.83% -6.04% 8.53% 0.74% 6.97% 9.09% -4.05% 4.81% 3.06% -1.94% 8.72% 0.00% 1.51% -0.47% -2.66% 2.61% -7.75% -4.95% 0.00% 0.96% 5.41% 6.76% 1.14% -4.55% 0.54% -1.63% 7.19% -7.53% -2.51% 0.00% 0.38% -3.35% -5.45% 3.76% 4.45% 1.18% 0.50% 0.71 0.51 0.37 0.32 0.67 0.39 0.69 0.15 0.78 0.81 1.60 0.06 0.32 0.56 0.24 0.31 0.65 0.62 0.53 1.30 0.53 0.04 0.51 0.14 14,51% 12,39% 14,65% 15,35% 15,55% 21,52% 9,89% 11,89% 13,66% 11,82% 14,36% 22-07-11 -1.33% 0.00% -0.31% 1.09% -3.57% 3.39% 15-07-11 -3.63% -2.54% 10.34% -3.16% 5.26% -4.84% 08-07-11 1.18% -1.67% -5.23% -5.00% -16.35% 01-07-11 -1.87% -3.23% 3.73% -13.04% 24-06-11 -1.25% 0.81% -2.96% 17-06-11 -1.37% 2.50% 10-06-11 0.36% 03-06-11 14-01-11 Rm 16.26% Rf 9.45% Rm -Rf Re 7.56% 14,79% 13,31% 12,27% 11,87% 10,60% 11,30% 14,12% 13,44% 19,24% 13,44% 9,72% 13,27% 10,53% PH L C III: B NG T SU T SINH L I TH Annual Returns on Investments in Year 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 S&P 500 43,81% -8,30% -25,12% -43,84% -8,64% 49,98% -1,19% 46,74% 31,94% -35,34% 29,28% -1,10% -10,67% -12,77% 19,17% 25,06% 19,03% 35,82% -8,43% 5,20% 5,70% 18,30% 30,81% 23,68% T.Bill 3,08% 3,16% 4,55% 2,31% 1,07% 0,96% 0,32% 0,18% 0,17% 0,30% 0,08% 0,04% 0,03% 0,08% 0,34% 0,38% 0,38% 0,38% 0,38% 0,57% 1,02% 1,10% 1,17% 1,48% T Bond 0,84% 4,20% 4,54% -2,56% 8,79% 1,86% 7,96% 4,47% 5,02% 1,38% 4,21% 4,41% 5,40% -2,02% 2,29% 2,49% 2,58% 3,80% 3,13% 0,92% 1,95% 4,66% 0,43% -0,30% NG CH NG KHOÁN HOA K 1928-2012 Compounded Value of $ 100 Stocks $ 143,81 $ 131,88 $ 98,75 $ 55,46 $ 50,66 $ 75,99 $ 75,09 $ 110,18 $ 145,38 $ 94,00 $ 121,53 $ 120,20 $ 107,37 $ 93,66 $ 111,61 $ 139,59 $ 166,15 $ 225,67 $ 206,65 $ 217,39 $ 229,79 $ 271,85 $ 355,60 $ 439,80 T.Bills $ 103,08 $ 106,34 $ 111,18 $ 113,74 $ 114,96 $ 116,06 $ 116,44 $ 116,64 $ 116,84 $ 117,19 $ 117,29 $ 117,33 $ 117,36 $ 117,46 $ 117,85 $ 118,30 $ 118,75 $ 119,20 $ 119,65 $ 120,33 $ 121,56 $ 122,90 $ 124,34 $ 126,18 T.Bonds $ 100,84 $ 105,07 $ 109,85 $ 107,03 $ 116,44 $ 118,60 $ 128,05 $ 133,78 $ 140,49 $ 142,43 $ 148,43 $ 154,98 $ 163,35 $ 160,04 $ 163,72 $ 167,79 $ 172,12 $ 178,67 $ 184,26 $ 185,95 $ 189,58 $ 198,42 $ 199,27 $ 198,68 Stocks Bills 40,73% -11,46% -29,67% -46,15% -9,71% 49,02% -1,51% 46,57% 31,77% -35,64% 29,21% -1,14% -10,70% -12,85% 18,84% 24,68% 18,65% 35,44% -8,81% 4,63% 4,68% 17,20% 29,63% 22,20% Stocks - Historical risk Bonds premium 42,98% -12,50% -29,66% -41,28% -17,43% 48,13% -9,15% 42,27% 26,93% -36,72% 25,07% -5,51% -16,08% -10,75% 16,88% 22,57% 16,45% 32,02% -11,56% 4,28% 3,75% 13,64% 30,38% 23,97% 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 18,15% -1,21% 52,56% 32,60% 7,44% -10,46% 43,72% 12,06% 0,34% 26,64% -8,81% 22,61% 16,42% 12,40% -9,97% 23,80% 10,81% -8,24% 3,56% 14,22% 18,76% -14,31% -25,90% 37,00% 23,83% -6,98% 6,51% 18,52% 1,67% 1,89% 0,96% 1,66% 2,56% 3,23% 1,78% 3,26% 3,05% 2,27% 2,78% 3,11% 3,51% 3,90% 4,84% 4,33% 5,26% 6,56% 6,69% 4,54% 3,95% 6,73% 7,78% 5,99% 4,97% 5,13% 6,93% 9,94% 2,27% 4,14% 3,29% -1,34% -2,26% 6,80% -2,10% -2,65% 11,64% 2,06% 5,69% 1,68% 3,73% 0,72% 2,91% -1,58% 3,27% -5,01% 16,75% 9,79% 2,82% 3,66% 1,99% 3,61% 15,98% 1,29% -0,78% 0,67% $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 519,62 513,35 783,18 1.038,47 1.115,73 999,05 1.435,84 1.608,95 1.614,37 2.044,40 1.864,26 2.285,80 2.661,02 2.990,97 2.692,74 3.333,69 3.694,23 3.389,77 3.510,49 4.009,72 4.761,76 4.080,44 3.023,54 4.142,10 5.129,20 4.771,20 5.081,77 6.022,89 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 128,29 130,72 131,98 134,17 137,60 142,04 144,57 149,27 153,82 157,30 161,67 166,70 172,54 179,28 187,95 196,10 206,41 219,96 234,66 245,32 255,01 272,16 293,33 310,90 326,35 343,09 366,87 403,33 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 203,19 211,61 218,57 215,65 210,79 225,11 220,39 214,56 239,53 244,46 258,38 262,74 272,53 274,49 282,47 278,01 287,11 272,71 318,41 349,57 359,42 372,57 379,98 393,68 456,61 462,50 458,90 461,98 16,48% -3,10% 51,60% 30,94% 4,88% -13,69% 41,94% 8,80% -2,71% 24,37% -11,59% 19,50% 12,91% 8,50% -14,81% 19,47% 5,55% -14,80% -3,12% 9,68% 14,80% -21,03% -33,68% 31,01% 18,86% -12,11% -0,42% 8,58% 15,88% -5,35% 49,27% 33,93% 9,70% -17,25% 45,82% 14,70% -11,30% 24,58% -14,51% 20,93% 12,69% 11,68% -12,88% 25,38% 7,54% -3,23% -13,19% 4,43% 15,94% -17,97% -27,89% 33,39% 7,85% -8,27% 7,29% 17,85% 6,11% 6,62% 5,97% 6,36% 6,53% 6,66% 6,11% 6,57% 6,60% 6,33% 5,90% 5,87% 6,08% 5,50% 4,64% 5,17% 5,22% 4,93% 4,97% 5,21% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 31,74% -4,70% 20,42% 22,34% 6,15% 31,24% 18,49% 5,81% 16,54% 31,48% -3,06% 30,23% 7,49% 9,97% 1,33% 37,20% 22,68% 33,10% 28,34% 20,89% -9,03% -11,85% -21,97% 28,36% 10,74% 4,83% 15,61% 5,48% 11,22% 14,30% 11,01% 8,45% 9,61% 7,49% 6,04% 5,72% 6,45% 8,11% 7,55% 5,61% 3,41% 2,98% 3,99% 5,52% 5,02% 5,05% 4,73% 4,51% 5,76% 3,67% 1,66% 1,03% 1,23% 3,01% 4,68% 4,64% -2,99% 8,20% 32,81% 3,20% 13,73% 25,71% 24,28% -4,96% 8,22% 17,69% 6,24% 15,00% 9,36% 14,21% -8,04% 23,48% 1,43% 9,94% 14,92% -8,25% 16,66% 5,57% 15,12% 0,38% 4,49% 2,87% 1,96% 10,21% $ 7.934,26 $ 7.561,16 $ 9.105,08 $ 11.138,90 $ 11.823,51 $ 15.516,60 $ 18.386,33 $ 19.455,08 $ 22.672,40 $ 29.808,58 $ 28.895,11 $ 37.631,51 $ 40.451,51 $ 44.483,33 $ 45.073,14 $ 61.838,19 $ 75.863,69 $ 100.977,34 $ 129.592,25 $ 156.658,05 $ 142.508,98 $ 125.622,01 $ 98.027,82 $ 125.824,39 $ 139.341,42 $ 146.077,85 $ 168.884,34 $ 178.147,20 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 448,58 512,73 569,18 617,26 676,60 727,26 771,15 815,27 867,86 938,24 1.009,08 1.065,69 1.101,98 1.134,84 1.180,07 1.245,15 1.307,68 1.373,76 1.438,70 1.503,58 1.590,23 1.648,63 1.675,96 1.693,22 1.714,00 1.765,59 1.848,18 1.933,98 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 448,17 484,91 644,04 664,65 755,92 950,29 1.181,06 1.122,47 1.214,78 1.429,72 1.518,87 1.746,77 1.910,30 2.181,77 2.006,43 2.477,55 2.512,94 2.762,71 3.174,95 2.912,88 3.398,03 3.587,37 4.129,65 4.145,15 4.331,30 4.455,50 4.542,87 5.006,69 20,52% -19,00% 9,41% 13,89% -3,47% 23,75% 12,46% 0,09% 10,09% 23,37% -10,61% 24,62% 4,09% 6,98% -2,66% 31,68% 17,66% 28,05% 23,61% 16,38% -14,79% -15,52% -23,62% 27,33% 9,52% 1,82% 10,94% 0,84% 34,72% -12,90% -12,40% 19,14% -7,59% 5,52% -5,79% 10,77% 8,31% 13,78% -9,30% 15,23% -1,87% -4,24% 9,36% 13,71% 21,25% 23,16% 13,42% 29,14% -25,69% -17,42% -37,08% 27,98% 6,25% 1,97% 13,65% -4,73% 5,73% 5,37% 5,10% 5,34% 5,12% 5,13% 4,97% 5,07% 5,12% 5,24% 5,00% 5,14% 5,03% 4,90% 4,97% 5,08% 5,30% 5,53% 5,63% 5,96% 5,51% 5,17% 4,53% 4,82% 4,84% 4,80% 4,91% 4,79% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 -36,55% 25,94% 14,82% 2,07% 15,83% Arithmetic Average 19282012 11,26% 196211,10% 2012 20022012 8,71% Geometric Average 19282012 9,31% 19629,73% 2012 20027,02% 2012 1,59% 0,14% 0,13% 0,03% 0,05% 20,10% -11,12% 8,46% 16,04% 2,97% $ 113.030,22 $ 142.344,87 $ 163.441,94 $ 166.818,28 $ 193.219,24 $ $ $ $ $ 1.964,64 $ 6.013,10 -38,14% -56,65% 1.967,29 $ 5.344,65 25,80% 37,05% 1.969,84 $ 5.796,96 14,69% 6,36% 1.970,44 $ 6.726,52 2,04% -13,97% 1.971,42 $ 6.926,40 15,78% 12,85% Risk Premium Standard Error Stocks Stocks Stocks - Stocks T.Bills T.Bonds T.Bills T.Bonds 3,61% 5,38% 7,65% 5,88% 2,20% 2,33% 5,17% 7,19% 5,93% 3,91% 2,38% 2,66% 1,65% 5,64% 7,06% 3,08% Risk Premium Stocks Stocks T.Bills T.Bonds 5,82% 8,11% 3,57% 5,11% 5,74% 4,20% 5,13% 6,80% 4,60% 2,93% 1,64% 5,31% 5,38% 1,71% 3,88% 4,29% 4,31% 4,10% 4,20% PH L C IV: B NG BETA TRUNG BÌNH NGÀNH T I HOA K Industry Name Advertising Aerospace/Defense Air Transport Apparel Auto Parts Automotive Bank Bank (Midwest) Beverage Biotechnology Building Materials Cable TV Chemical (Basic) Chemical (Diversified) Chemical (Specialty) Coal Computer Software Computers/Peripherals Diversified Co Drug E-Commerce Educational Services Electric Util (Central) Electric Utility (East) Electric Utility (West) Number of Firms 32 66 36 54 54 12 416 68 35 214 43 20 18 33 70 20 191 81 113 223 64 33 20 17 15 Average Beta 1,68 0,98 1,03 1,36 1,76 1,73 0,77 0,89 0,95 1,23 1,57 1,40 1,37 1,55 1,18 1,47 0,98 1,37 1,22 1,08 1,05 0,91 0,57 0,43 0,58 Market D/E Ratio 40,84% 26,64% 59,08% 13,77% 24,37% 103,42% 128,23% 49,85% 22,29% 15,92% 65,24% 66,11% 24,73% 16,69% 20,53% 68,38% 6,55% 9,70% 78,69% 14,79% 6,74% 24,73% 85,00% 67,90% 81,37% Tax Unlevered Cash/Firm Rate Beta Value 16,02% 1,25 13,12% 20,08% 0,81 11,74% 21,35% 0,70 14,13% 18,57% 1,23 5,13% 18,77% 1,47 11,65% 16,24% 0,93 16,84% 16,39% 0,37 16,43% 20,99% 0,64 15,03% 18,82% 0,80 4,33% 2,98% 1,07 18,10% 9,48% 0,99 6,18% 21,23% 0,92 3,61% 21,89% 1,15 7,52% 19,75% 1,37 6,96% 15,35% 1,00 4,58% 11,27% 0,91 7,67% 12,43% 0,92 16,59% 10,01% 1,26 9,78% 17,18% 0,74 14,07% 5,14% 0,94 8,25% 10,52% 0,99 9,21% 21,72% 0,76 30,24% 30,12% 0,36 1,03% 33,49% 0,29 1,81% 29,09% 0,37 1,88% Unlevered Beta corrected for cash 1,44 0,92 0,82 1,29 1,66 1,11 0,45 0,76 0,84 1,30 1,05 0,96 1,24 1,47 1,05 0,99 1,11 1,39 0,86 1,03 1,09 1,09 0,36 0,30 0,38 Electrical Equipment Electronics Engineering & Const Entertainment Entertainment Tech Environmental Financial Svcs (Div.) Food Processing Foreign Electronics Funeral Services Furn/Home Furnishings Healthcare Information Heavy Truck & Equip Homebuilding Hotel/Gaming Household Products Human Resources Industrial Services Information Services Insurance (Life) Insurance (Prop/Cas.) Internet Investment Companies IT Services Machinery Maritime Med Supp Invasive Med Supp Non-Invasive 64 123 30 76 42 84 256 119 10 32 20 23 22 57 27 25 136 28 32 62 194 31 63 94 51 87 143 1,43 1,22 1,28 1,60 1,11 0,66 1,34 0,87 1,10 1,12 1,63 0,97 1,80 1,55 1,65 0,98 1,38 0,97 1,25 1,44 0,85 1,17 1,27 1,05 1,26 1,51 0,87 1,07 12,28% 22,46% 13,23% 33,87% 11,54% 43,07% 204,42% 23,50% 45,71% 49,48% 22,06% 11,62% 47,30% 49,57% 44,75% 18,11% 10,80% 36,56% 28,46% 55,85% 21,48% 2,29% 7,55% 5,72% 17,39% 181,21% 16,48% 12,89% 16,15% 11,31% 25,00% 12,56% 11,01% 7,60% 16,23% 21,63% 23,12% 28,66% 16,69% 20,31% 22,74% 7,12% 17,52% 24,66% 26,61% 20,19% 18,33% 21,09% 10,73% 8,43% 2,26% 16,27% 22,73% 7,92% 12,60% 10,61% 1,29 1,01 1,17 1,24 1,01 0,48 0,49 0,74 0,81 0,83 1,37 0,88 1,32 1,06 1,21 0,86 1,28 0,75 1,01 1,00 0,71 1,15 1,18 1,00 1,11 0,57 0,76 0,96 10,95% 13,01% 16,52% 5,81% 24,21% 2,45% 12,46% 3,74% 27,40% 2,94% 6,52% 10,06% 9,15% 15,14% 6,43% 2,52% 12,49% 9,21% 3,48% 28,90% 20,86% 12,04% 2,64% 10,31% 6,04% 6,05% 7,36% 13,33% 1,45 1,17 1,40 1,31 1,33 0,49 0,56 0,77 1,12 0,85 1,47 0,98 1,45 1,25 1,29 0,88 1,46 0,83 1,05 1,41 0,90 1,31 1,21 1,11 1,18 0,60 0,82 1,10 Medical Services Metal Fabricating Metals & Mining (Div.) Natural Gas (Div.) Natural Gas Utility Newspaper Office Equip/Supplies Oil/Gas Distribution Oilfield Svcs/Equip Packaging & Container Paper/Forest Products Petroleum (Integrated) Petroleum (Producing) Pharmacy Services Pipeline MLPs Power Precious Metals Precision Instrument Property Management Public/Private Equity Publishing R.E.I.T Railroad Recreation Reinsurance Restaurant Retail (Hardlines) Retail (Softlines) 118 25 77 31 27 14 22 12 81 27 32 26 176 18 53 101 83 82 31 12 29 127 12 51 11 65 79 42 0,84 1,63 1,62 1,28 0,46 1,86 1,43 1,02 1,66 1,20 1,37 1,17 1,45 1,17 0,74 1,35 1,03 1,27 1,30 2,02 1,17 1,43 1,32 1,45 0,82 1,16 1,79 1,43 50,23% 23,59% 15,42% 41,08% 66,15% 39,29% 72,14% 53,39% 27,72% 56,17% 43,01% 20,47% 28,12% 18,88% 44,37% 163,45% 13,65% 21,21% 112,58% 28,73% 36,14% 37,01% 23,46% 37,75% 18,90% 13,15% 26,01% 5,59% 17,72% 23,30% 11,24% 22,02% 28,80% 18,35% 22,66% 18,11% 18,20% 23,09% 11,43% 30,34% 11,71% 23,18% 4,30% 6,19% 11,13% 14,13% 16,50% 19,17% 22,69% 0,04% 28,60% 20,31% 3,58% 19,23% 22,55% 25,57% 0,59 1,38 1,42 0,97 0,31 1,41 0,91 0,71 1,35 0,84 0,99 1,02 1,16 1,02 0,52 0,53 0,92 1,07 0,67 1,64 0,92 1,04 1,13 1,11 0,69 1,05 1,49 1,37 10,82% 11,91% 7,45% 4,36% 2,41% 5,91% 13,12% 1,26% 6,40% 5,10% 7,35% 7,03% 3,81% 5,11% 0,74% 7,85% 7,93% 11,37% 8,37% 15,39% 4,97% 6,78% 1,69% 5,79% 24,61% 3,42% 9,96% 8,96% 0,66 1,56 1,54 1,01 0,32 1,50 1,05 0,72 1,45 0,88 1,07 1,10 1,21 1,07 0,52 0,58 1,00 1,21 0,73 1,94 0,96 1,12 1,15 1,18 0,91 1,08 1,65 1,51 Retail Automotive Retail Building Supply Retail Store Retail/Wholesale Food Securities Brokerage Semiconductor Semiconductor Equip Shoe Steel Telecom Equipment Telecom Services Telecom Utility Thrift Tobacco Toiletries/Cosmetics Trucking Water Utility Wireless Networking Total Market 19 10 38 30 27 142 10 17 33 105 76 23 170 11 14 34 11 58 6177 1,39 1,11 1,29 0,68 1,07 1,49 1,79 1,26 1,65 1,07 1,15 0,92 0,68 0,86 1,17 1,09 0,49 1,35 1,17 44,33% 11,72% 25,58% 34,84% 264,59% 10,06% 16,98% 1,94% 56,21% 13,31% 31,82% 108,25% 19,50% 18,87% 20,63% 42,33% 73,18% 25,67% 42,92% 32,69% 25,56% 24,83% 31,18% 30,41% 11,71% 15,21% 19,89% 24,24% 14,01% 16,22% 26,94% 15,84% 32,82% 27,33% 25,94% 31,45% 10,06% 14,93% 1,07 1,02 1,08 0,55 0,38 1,37 1,57 1,24 1,16 0,96 0,91 0,51 0,58 0,76 1,01 0,83 0,33 1,10 0,86 2,50% 1,97% 4,67% 5,46% 43,53% 14,48% 21,91% 8,93% 8,82% 30,13% 8,92% 3,31% 25,18% 3,21% 6,80% 5,15% 0,54% 6,00% 10,66% 1,10 1,04 1,14 0,58 0,66 1,60 2,01 1,37 1,27 1,37 1,00 0,53 0,78 0,79 1,09 0,87 0,33 1,17 0,96 PH L UN VÀ TÍNH CHI PHÍ LÃI VAY C A NGÀNH TH C PH M vay STT Mã CK vay dài Chi phí lãi vay 2012 2011 2012 BBC 1.201.997.681 BHS 1.012.168.934.617 361.712.095.401 90.760.307.932 CAN 2.239.510.080 25.572.042.413 2.772.000.000 HHC 252.500.000 HNM 2011 867.135.746 Rd 350.359.143 1.034.566.714 104.338.661.817 21.857.596.641 12.249.539.456 100% 0% 33,87% 784.489.999.884 88% 12% 2,79% 293.712.549 21.416.545.975 65% 35% 1,37% 252.500.000 6.259.500 252.500.000 100% 0% 2,48% 52.042.397.041 46.986.582.942 6.862.561.238 49.514.489.992 100% 0% 13,86% IFS 364.490.000.000 395.732.000.000 3.859.530.800 519.261.000.000 73% 27% 0,74% KDC 151.089.369.746 276.562.215.612 3.946.505.628 213.825.792.679 100% 0% 1,85% KTS 2.900.000.000 17.869.823.966 186.098.590 11.834.911.983 88% 12% 1,57% LAF 136.406.576.729 452.486.779.289 4.823.513.860 294.446.678.009 100% 0% 1,64% 10 LSS 577.876.764.618 173.149.862.782 298.436.771.000 164.009.340.000 22.575.501.781 606.736.369.200 62% 38% 3,72% 11 MSN 1.793.384.000.000 2.032.397.000.000 12.647.177.000.000 7.409.781.000.000 278.933.000.000 11.941.369.500.000 16% 84% 2,34% 12 NHS 176.756.587.087 126.654.436.530 92.053.686.436 118.402.943.561 6.819.522.561 256.933.826.807 59% 41% 2,65% 13 NST 204.651.815.931 78.986.465.568 77.414.147.454 67.792.168.776 8.716.537.429 214.422.298.865 66% 34% 4,07% 14 SBT 718.271.234.670 327.803.035.686 45.073.017.776 17.897.563.000 75.345.627.183 554.522.425.566 94% 6% 13,59% 15 SCD 206.841.000.000 71.459.000.000 2.900.000.000 - 16 SEC 243.594.658.667 17 SGC 580.099.800 18 TAC 175.640.857.288 272.831.857.473 19 THB 13.187.580.251 37.631.308.272 20 THV 676.932.471.811 688.188.451.863 14.297.955.400 21 VDL 9.343.911.290 10.465.795.279 1.546.900.000 22 VLF - 23 VNM - 24 VTL 853.753.786 97.105.552.000 11.435.566.631 336.615.577.618 1.669.746 5.290.049.900 32.958.217.648 51% 49% 3,40% 5% 95% 0,03% 240.715.466.205 93% 7% 1,21% 1.439.328.164 3.915.240.368 197.053.093.762 10.000.000.000 270.367.157 135.477.850.807 2.923.010.060 25.409.444.262 100% 0% 5,66% 14.297.955.400 18.237.681.928 696.858.417.237 98% 2% 2,62% 1.512.000.000 600.733.399 11.434.303.285 87% 13% 5,25% 10% 90% 24,66% 6.129.790.136 1.377.156.373 5.584.575.724 PH L C VI: TÍNH WACC BÌNH QN NGÀNH THEO MƠ HÌNH CAPM STT MÃ CK BBC 19,5 15.420.782 300.705.249 0,166% 1.034.566.714 1.350.692.764 43,37% 56,63% BHS 16,6 29.997.580 497.959.828 0,275% 784.489.999.884 785.017.957.308 49,98% CAN 23,5 4.999.880 117.497.180 0,065% 21.416.545.975 21.539.043.058 HHC 15,3 8.212.500 125.651.250 0,069% 252.500.000 HNM 4,7 12.500.000 58.750.000 0,032% IFS 9,8 29.140.992 285.581.722 KDC 48 158.429.369 KTS 17,5 LAF 10 Re WACC WACC 33,87% 14,64% 19,31% 0,032% 50,02% 2,79% 13,20% 7,65% 0,021% 49,86% 50,14% 1,37% 12,19% 6,62% 0,004% 386.363.765 39,52% 60,48% 2,48% 11,80% 7,87% 0,005% 49.514.489.992 49.585.739.996 49,96% 50,04% 13,86% 14,37% 12,39% 0,004% 0,158% 519.261.000.000 519.575.722.723 49,98% 50,02% 0,74% 12,31% 6,43% 0,010% 7.604.609.712 4,206% 213.825.792.679 221.588.831.808 49,11% 50,89% 1,85% 14,51% 8,06% 0,339% 5.070.000 88.725.000 0,049% 11.834.911.983 11.928.707.001 49,80% 50,20% 1,57% 10,56% 5,89% 0,003% 5,6 14.728.019 82.476.906 0,046% 294.446.678.009 294.543.882.940 49,99% 50,01% 1,64% 15,19% 8,21% 0,004% LSS 12,6 50.000.000 630.000.000 0,348% 606.736.369.200 607.416.369.213 49,97% 50,03% 3,72% 15,38% 9,09% 0,032% 11 MSN 115 687.280.123 79.037.214.145 43,712% 11.941.369.500.000 12.021.093.994.383 49,83% 50,17% 2,34% 21,19% 11,50% 5,028% 12 NHS 13,5 30.375.000 410.062.500 0,227% 256.933.826.807 257.374.264.321 49,96% 50,04% 2,65% 9,88% 5,94% 0,013% 13 NST 8,8 6.913.133 60.835.570 0,034% 214.422.298.865 214.490.047.577 49,99% 50,01% 4,07% 11,83% 7,44% 0,003% 14 SBT 15,8 132.510.770 2.093.670.166 1,158% 554.522.425.566 556.748.606.518 49,90% 50,10% 13,59% 13,54% 11,87% 0,137% 15 SCD 12,1 8.477.640 102.579.444 0,057% 111.057.096 0,00% 100,00% 11,24% 11,24% 0,006% 16 SEC 22,5 17.406.580 391.648.050 0,217% 336.615.577.618 337.024.632.271 49,97% 50,03% 3,40% 11,76% 7,16% 0,015% 17 SGC 20,1 7.147.682 143.668.408 0,079% 5.290.049.900 5.440.866.010 49,30% 50,70% 0,03% 14,22% 7,22% 0,006% 18 TAC 39 18.980.200 740.227.800 0,409% 240.715.466.205 241.474.674.244 49,92% 50,08% 1,21% 13,99% 7,46% 0,031% 11.424.570 57.749.995 153.089.238 51.974.996 0,085% 0,029% 25.409.444.262 696.858.417.237 25.573.958.083 696.968.142.228 49,84% 50,00% 50,16% 50,00% 5,66% 2,62% 13,33% 13,33% 8,80% 7,65% 0,007% 0,002% 19 20 THB THV P 13,4 0,9 D E - %D %E Rd 21 VDL 20,2 6.257.779 126.407.136 0,070% 22 VLF 11,5 11.960.000 137.540.000 0,076% 23 VNM 105 833.519.661 87.519.564.405 48,403% 24 VTL 30 1.801.180 54.035.400 2.160.303.435 180.814.474.105 0,030% 100,000% 11.434.303.285 11.566.968.220 49,71% 50,29% - 149.500.012 0,00% - 88.353.084.171 5.584.575.724 5,25% 13,33% 8,66% 0,006% 100,00% 9,71% 9,71% 0,007% 0,00% 100,00% 13,17% 13,17% 6,373% 100,00% 0,00% 10,50% 93,49% 0,028% WACC 12,118% 124,66% PH L C VII: TÍNH WACC TRUNG BÌNH NGÀNH THEO MƠ HÌNH CAPM STT 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 MÃ CK BBC BHS CAN HHC HNM IFS KDC KTS LAF LSS MSN NHS NST SBT SCD SEC SGC TAC THB THV VDL VLF VNM VTL D/E Re US Re Rd VN 0,766 1,16 9,05% 24,05% 33,87% 0,999 1,29 9,81% 24,81% 2,79% 0,994 1,28 9,79% 24,79% 1,37% 0,654 1,09 8,69% 23,69% 2,48% 0,999 1,28 9,81% 24,81% 13,86% 0,999 1,29 9,81% 24,81% 0,74% 0,965 1,27 9,70% 24,70% 1,85% 0,992 1,28 9,78% 24,78% 1,57% 1,000 1,29 9,81% 24,81% 1,64% 0,999 1,29 9,81% 24,81% 3,72% 0,993 1,28 9,79% 24,79% 2,34% 0,998 1,28 9,80% 24,80% 2,65% 1,000 1,29 9,81% 24,81% 4,07% 0,996 1,28 9,80% 24,80% 13,59% 0,000 0,73 6,57% 21,57% 0,999 1,29 9,81% 24,81% 3,40% 0,972 1,27 9,72% 24,72% 0,03% 0,997 1,28 9,80% 24,80% 1,21% 0,994 1,28 9,79% 24,79% 5,66% 1,000 1,29 9,81% 24,81% 2,62% 0,989 1,28 9,77% 24,77% 5,25% 0,000 0,73 6,57% 21,57% 0,000 0,73 6,57% 21,57% 0,000 0,73 6,57% 21,57% 24,66% WACC trung bình ngành %D 27,34% 28,33% 28,31% 26,83% 28,33% 28,33% 28,19% 28,30% 28,33% 28,33% 28,31% 28,33% 28,33% 28,32% 23,35% 28,33% 28,22% 28,32% 28,31% 28,34% 28,29% 23,35% 23,35% 23,35% M&M %E WACC WACC 72,66% 24,64% 0,041% 71,67% 13,45% 0,037% 71,69% 12,94% 0,008% 73,17% 15,06% 0,010% 71,67% 17,61% 0,006% 71,67% 12,69% 0,020% 71,81% 13,25% 0,557% 71,70% 13,03% 0,006% 71,67% 13,02% 0,006% 71,67% 13,80% 0,048% 71,69% 13,31% 5,817% 71,67% 13,41% 0,030% 71,67% 13,93% 0,005% 71,68% 17,51% 0,203% 76,65% 21,57% 0,012% 71,67% 13,68% 0,030% 71,78% 12,55% 0,010% 71,68% 12,87% 0,053% 71,69% 14,55% 0,012% 71,66% 13,39% 0,004% 71,71% 14,42% 0,010% 76,65% 21,57% 0,016% 76,65% 21,57% 10,441% 76,65% 18,49% 0,006% 17,389% ... r CF1 = CF1 × (1 + r)n = CF1 × PV × r = CF1 × CF1 × SVTH: Hà Kim Tu n Anh 2.3 ng th c (2 . 2) ta có: PV = CF1 PV = (1 + r)n r (1 + r)n (1 + r)n (1 + r)n (1 +r)n = CF1 × r r × (1 + r)n Th nh giá 1-K35... CFt (1 + r)n c gi nh dòng ti i, t c CF1 = CF2 = CF3 n t=1 Nhân v c có: CF1 = CF1 × (1 + r)n PV = n t=1 2.2 (1 + r)n ng th c v i (1 + r) ta có: n PV × (1 + r) = CF1 t=0 L 2.1 ng th c (2 . 3) tr... hi n t FV = PV x (1 + r)n (1 ) FV: Giá tr ti n t m t th PV: Giá tr ti n t t i th r: T su t sinh l i c a kho ng ti n ( hay lãi su t) m hi n t i ( n = 0) (1 + r )n:H s sinh l i (h s T công th c