Báo cáo kết quả kinh tế tài chính Việt Nam năm 2012

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Báo cáo kết quả kinh tế tài chính Việt Nam năm 2012

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Báo cáo Thường niên Kinh tế Việt Nam là sản phẩm chính của một trong những hướng nghiên cứu chiến lược của Đại học Quốc gia Hà Nội do Trung tâm Nghiên cứu Kinh tế và Chính sách (VEPR) thuộc Trường Đại học Kinh tế thực hiện hàng năm kể từ năm 2009.

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Z'*i&j(k^l(mno( Z'*i&j(k^l(mno( ! -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 "##$! "##%! "##&! "##'! "#(#! "#((! "#("! "#()! *+, ! /.01234.! 5406!/781! Tng trng GDP (%) D bỏo -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 12! 9-! 12! 9-! 12! *+, ! /.01234.! :;4,<82<! Thay i hng nm (%) [...]...  khủng  hoảng  hàng  hóa  và tài chính  đến  nghèo  đói  ở Việt Nam       24   Phần  II  Diễn  biến kinh tế Việt Nam                 1 Tổng  quan kinh tế Việt Nam       Trong  những năm  qua, Việt Nam  được  nhắc  đến  với  tư  cách  là  một   ví  dụ  điển  hình  trong  việc  xóa  đói  giảm  nghèo  Nhiều  Mục  tiêu  Thiên  niên   kỷ  đã  được Việt Nam  hoàn  thành  trước  thời... kết  quan  trọng  nữa  giữa kinh tế Việt Nam  với kinh tế  toàn  cầu   là  mức   giá   cả   hàng   hóa   Việt   Nam   là   nước   xuất   khẩu   ròng   dầu   thô   và   lương   thực,  do  vậy  thay  đổi  giá  cả  những  mặt  hàng  này  sẽ  dẫn  đến  thay  đổi  về  thu   nhập,  doanh  thu chính  phủ  và  tăng  trưởng kinh tế. 27   Rõ   ràng   triển   vọng   kinh   tế   thế   giới   năm   2012. .. tiếp   đến   hiệu   quả   của   nền   kinh   tế   Việt   nam   trong   năm   2011   và   những   năm   tiếp   theo   Từ   cuối   năm   2007,  đã  có  những  chỉ  dấu  rõ  ràng  về  yếu  kém  của  nền kinh tế  Sang năm   2008,   trước   bối   cảnh   khó   khăn   kinh   tế   toàn   cầu   và   cơ   cấu   kinh   tế   dễ   bị   tổn   thương,   mục   tiêu   tăng   trưởng   do   Chính   phủ   đặt   ra...  dường  như  là  không  thể   3 Ảnh  hưởng  đến kinh tế Việt Nam   Diễn   biến   kinh   tế   toàn   cầu   tác   động   đến   nền   kinh   tế   Việt   Nam   thông   qua   một   số   kênh   Việt   Nam   có   một   nền   kinh   tế   mở   với   tỉ   lệ   thương   mại/GDP  là  160%  (2008  –  2010).22  Thị  trường  xuất  khẩu  lớn  nhất  của Việt   Nam  là  Hoa  Kì,  Liên  minh  Châu  Âu  (EU),  Nhật...  thống kinh tế  toàn  cầu,  với  mức  độ   mở   cửa   đối   với   nền   kinh   tế   ngày   càng   tăng,   Việt   nam   cũng   không   thể   đứng   ngoài  những  ảnh  hưởng  tiêu  cực  của kinh tế  thế  giới  Hơn  thế  nữa,  những   bất  cập  trong  cơ  cấu kinh tế  với  hiệu quả  đầu  tư  ngày  càng  giảm,  nguy  cơ   ảnh   hưởng   tiêu   cực   của   kinh   tế   toàn   cầu   đối   với   kinh   tế. .. mạnh   của   khủng   khoảng   tài   chính   toàn   cầu  đến  nền kinh tế Việt Nam  Điều  này  vừa  cho  thấy  sự  gia  tăng  đáng  kể   mức  độ  hội  nhập kinh tế,  đồng  thời  cho  thấy  tính  dễ  tổn  thương  của  nền   kinh tế Việt Nam  trước  các  cú  sốc  từ  bên  ngoài       Những  điểm  yếu  mang  tính  cơ  cấu  tồn  đọng  từ  kế  hoạch  phát  triển   kinh   tế   xã   hội   2006-­‐2010...  euro  sụp  đổ  sẽ  dẫn  tới  các  hậu quả kinh tế, chính  trị  và  xã   hội   “mang   tính   thảm   họa”   đối   với   châu   Âu   và   kinh   tế   toàn   cầu   UBS   cho   rằng   hậu   quả   chính  trị  của  việc  đổ  vỡ  đồng  Euro chính  là  sự  tan  vỡ  của  Liên  minh  châu  Âu  (EU)  Hậu   quả  xã  hội  và  an  ninh  còn  lớn  hơn  hậu quả kinh tế  khi  UBS  dự  đoán  nếu  khối  đồng...   kinh tế     2 Tình  hình  khu  vực  sản  xuất     2.1   Tổng  cung  của  nền kinh tế     Tăng  trưởng  cao  của Việt Nam  trong  thập  kỷ  vừa  qua  đã  chịu  những   tác  động  tiêu  cực  từ  cuộc  khủng  hoảng tài chính  thế  giới  2008-­‐2009  Trước   tác   động   tiêu   cực   của   khủng   hoảng   tài   chính   thế   giới   đến   tổng   cầu   trong   nước,   Chính   phủ   Việt   Nam. ..  nền kinh tế     Phân   tích   dưới   góc   độ   tổng   cầu   của   nền   kinh   tế,   tỷ   lệ   tích   lũy   tài   sản   có   xu   hướng   giảm   nhẹ   từ   năm   2007   đến   năm   2009,   tăng   nhẹ   trong   năm   2010  Theo  ước  tính  của  IMF, năm  2011,  tỷ  lệ  tích  lũy tài  sản  chiếm  trong   GDP  đạt  36,37%,  giảm  so  với năm  2010  Đóng  góp  lớn  nhất  cho  nền kinh tế   xét...  2006-­‐2010,  nền kinh tế  có   tốc   độ   tăng   trưởng   trung   bình   thấp   hơn,   bình   quân   7% /năm,   nhưng   vẫn   thuộc  nhóm  các  nước  có  tốc  độ  tăng  trưởng  cao  trên  thế  giới       Với  mục  tiêu  ổn  định kinh tế  vĩ  mô  trong  bối  cảnh  khủng  hoảng kinh   tế, Việt Nam  đã  duy  trì  tăng  trưởng  ở  tốc  độ  5,3% năm  2009,  6,75% năm   2010,  và  đạt  mức  5,89% năm  2011 . ! 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