Climate Change and Global Food Security © 2005 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC BOOKS IN SOILS, PLANTS, AND THE ENVIRONMENT Editorial Board Agricultural Engineering Robert M. Peart, University of Florida, Gainesville Crops Mohammad Pessarakli, University of Arizona, Tucson Environment Kenneth G. Cassman, University of Nebraska, Lincoln Irrigation and Hydrology Donald R. Nielsen, University of California, Davis Microbiology Jan Dirk van Elsas, Research Institute for Plant Protection, Wageningen, The Netherlands Plants L. David Kuykendall, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Beltsville, Maryland Kenneth B. Marcum, Arizona State University, Tempe Soils Jean-Marc Bollag, Pennsylvania State University, University Park Tsuyoshi Miyazaki, University of Tokyo, Japan Soil Biochemistry, Volume 1, edited by A. D. McLaren and G. H. Peterson Soil Biochemistry, Volume 2, edited by A. D. McLaren and J. Skujins Soil Biochemistry, Volume 3, edited by E. A. Paul and A. D. McLaren Soil Biochemistry, Volume 4, edited by E. A. Paul and A. D. McLaren Soil Biochemistry, Volume 5, edited by E. A. Paul and J. N. Ladd Soil Biochemistry, Volume 6, edited by Jean-Marc Bollag and G. Stotzky Soil Biochemistry, Volume 7, edited by G. Stotzky and Jean-Marc Bollag Soil Biochemistry, Volume 8, edited by Jean-Marc Bollag and G. Stotzky Soil Biochemistry, Volume 9, edited by G. Stotzky and Jean-Marc Bollag © 2005 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC Organic Chemicals in the Soil Environment, Volumes 1 and 2, edited by C. A. I. Goring and J. W. Hamaker Humic Substances in the Environment, M. Schnitzer and S. U. Khan Microbial Life in the Soil: An Introduction, T. Hattori Principles of Soil Chemistry, Kim H. Tan Soil Analysis: Instrumental Techniques and Related Procedures, edited by Keith A. Smith Soil Reclamation Processes: Microbiological Analyses and Applications, edited by Robert L. Tate III and Donald A. Klein Symbiotic Nitrogen Fixation Technology, edited by Gerald H. Elkan Soil-–Water Interactions: Mechanisms and Applications, Shingo Iwata and Toshio Tabuchi with Benno P. Warkentin Soil Analysis: Modern Instrumental Techniques, Second Edition, edited by Keith A. Smith Soil Analysis: Physical Methods, edited by Keith A. Smith and Chris E. Mullins Growth and Mineral Nutrition of Field Crops, N. K. Fageria, V. C. Baligar, and Charles Allan Jones Semiarid Lands and Deserts: Soil Resource and Reclamation, edited by J. Skujins Plant Roots: The Hidden Half, edited by Yoav Waisel, Amram Eshel, and Uzi Kafkafi Plant Biochemical Regulators, edited by Harold W. Gausman Maximizing Crop Yields, N. K. Fageria Transgenic Plants: Fundamentals and Applications, edited by Andrew Hiatt Soil Microbial Ecology: Applications in Agricultural and Environmental Management, edited by F. Blaine Metting, Jr. Principles of Soil Chemistry: Second Edition, Kim H. Tan Water Flow in Soils, edited by Tsuyoshi Miyazaki Handbook of Plant and Crop Stress, edited by Mohammad Pessarakli Genetic Improvement of Field Crops, edited by Gustavo A. Slafer Agricultural Field Experiments: Design and Analysis, Roger G. Petersen Environmental Soil Science, Kim H. Tan Mechanisms of Plant Growth and Improved Productivity: Modern Approaches, edited by Amarjit S. Basra Selenium in the Environment, edited by W. T. Frankenberger, Jr. and Sally Benson Plant–Environment Interactions, edited by Robert E. Wilkinson Handbook of Plant and Crop Physiology, edited by Mohammad Pessarakli © 2005 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC Handbook of Phytoalexin Metabolism and Action, edited by M. Daniel and R. P. Purkayastha Soil–Water Interactions: Mechanisms and Applications, Second Edition, Revised and Expanded, Shingo Iwata, Toshio Tabuchi, and Benno P. Warkentin Stored-Grain Ecosystems, edited by Digvir S. Jayas, Noel D. G. White, and William E. Muir Agrochemicals from Natural Products, edited by C. R. A. Godfrey Seed Development and Germination, edited by Jaime Kigel and Gad Galili Nitrogen Fertilization in the Environment, edited by Peter Edward Bacon Phytohormones in Soils: Microbial Production and Function, William T. Frankenberger, Jr., and Muhammad Arshad Handbook of Weed Management Systems, edited by Albert E. Smith Soil Sampling, Preparation, and Analysis, Kim H. Tan Soil Erosion, Conservation, and Rehabilitation, edited by Menachem Agassi Plant Roots: The Hidden Half, Second Edition, Revised and Expanded, edited by Yoav Waisel, Amram Eshel, and Uzi Kafkafi Photoassimilate Distribution in Plants and Crops: Source–Sink Relationships, edited by Eli Zamski and Arthur A. Schaffer Mass Spectrometry of Soils, edited by Thomas W. Boutton and Shinichi Yamasaki Handbook of Photosynthesis, edited by Mohammad Pessarakli Chemical and Isotopic Groundwater Hydrology: The Applied Approach, Second Edition, Revised and Expanded, Emanuel Mazor Fauna in Soil Ecosystems: Recycling Processes, Nutrient Fluxes, and Agricultural Production, edited by Gero Benckiser Soil and Plant Analysis in Sustainable Agriculture and Environment, edited by Teresa Hood and J. Benton Jones, Jr. Seeds Handbook: Biology, Production, Processing, and Storage: B. B. Desai, P. M. Kotecha, and D. K. Salunkhe Modern Soil Microbiology, edited by J. D. van Elsas, J. T. Trevors, and E. M. H. Wellington Growth and Mineral Nutrition of Field Crops: Second Edition, N. K. Fageria, V. C. Baligar, and Charles Allan Jones Fungal Pathogenesis in Plants and Crops: Molecular Biology and Host Defense Mechanisms, P. Vidhyasekaran Plant Pathogen Detection and Disease Diagnosis, P. Narayanasamy Agricultural Systems Modeling and Simulation, edited by Robert M. Peart and R. Bruce Curry © 2005 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC Agricultural Biotechnology, edited by Arie Altman Plant–Microbe Interactions and Biological Control, edited by Greg J. Boland and L. David Kuykendall Handbook of Soil Conditioners: Substances That Enhance the Physical Properties of Soil, edited by Arthur Wallace and Richard E. Terry Environmental Chemistry of Selenium, edited by William T. Frankenberger, Jr., and Richard A. Engberg Principles of Soil Chemistry: Third Edition, Revised and Expanded, Kim H. Tan Sulfur in the Environment, edited by Douglas G. Maynard Soil–Machine Interactions: A Finite Element Perspective, edited by Jie Shen and Radhey Lal Kushwaha Mycotoxins in Agriculture and Food Safety, edited by Kaushal K. Sinha and Deepak Bhatnagar Plant Amino Acids: Biochemistry and Biotechnology, edited by Bijay K. Singh Handbook of Functional Plant Ecology, edited by Francisco I. Pugnaire and Fernando Valladares Handbook of Plant and Crop Stress: Second Edition, Revised and Expanded, edited by Mohammad Pessarakli Plant Responses to Environmental Stresses: From Phytohormones to Genome Reorganization, edited by H. R. Lerner Handbook of Pest Management, edited by John R. Ruberson Environmental Soil Science: Second Edition, Revised and Expanded, Kim H. Tan Microbial Endophytes, edited by Charles W. Bacon and James F. White, Jr. Plant–Environment Interactions: Second Edition, edited by Robert E. Wilkinson Microbial Pest Control, Sushil K. Khetan Soil and Environmental Analysis: Physical Methods, Second Edition, Revised and Expanded, edited by Keith A. Smith and Chris E. Mullins The Rhizosphere: Biochemistry and Organic Substances at the Soil–Plant Interface, Roberto Pinton, Zeno Varanini, and Paolo Nannipieri Woody Plants and Woody Plant Management: Ecology, Safety, and Environmental Impact, Rodney W. Bovey Metals in the Environment, M. N. V. Prasad Plant Pathogen Detection and Disease Diagnosis: Second Edition, Revised and Expanded, P. Narayanasamy Handbook of Plant and Crop Physiology: Second Edition, Revised and Expanded, edited by Mohammad Pessarakli © 2005 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC Environmental Chemistry of Arsenic, edited by William T. Frankenberger, Jr. Enzymes in the Environment: Activity, Ecology, and Applications, edited by Richard G. Burns and Richard P. Dick Plant Roots: The Hidden Half, Third Edition, Revised and Expanded, edited by Yoav Waisel, Amram Eshel, and Uzi Kafkafi Handbook of Plant Growth: pH as the Master Variable, edited by Zdenko Rengel Biological Control of Major Crop Plant Diseases, edited by Samuel S. Gnanamanickam Pesticides in Agriculture and the Environment, edited by Willis B. Wheeler Mathematical Models of Crop Growth and Yield, Allen R. Overman and Richard Scholtz Plant Biotechnology and Transgenic Plants, edited by Kirsi-Marja Oksman Caldentey and Wolfgang Barz Handbook of Postharvest Technology: Cereals, Fruits, Vegetables, Tea, and Spices, edited by Amalendu Chakraverty, Arun S. Mujumdar, G. S. Vijaya Raghavan, and Hosahalli S. Ramaswamy Handbook of Soil Acidity, edited by Zdenko Rengel Humic Matter in Soil and the Environment: Principles and Controversies, edited by Kim H. Tan Molecular Host Plant Resistance to Pests, edited by S. Sadasivam and B. Thayumanayan Soil and Environmental Analysis: Modern Instrumental Techniques, Third Edition, edited by Keith A. Smith and Malcolm S. Cresser Chemical and Isotopic Groundwater Hydrology, Third Edition, edited by Emanuel Mazor Agricultural Systems Management: Optimizing Efficiency and Performance, edited by Robert M. Peart and W. David Shoup Physiology and Biotechnology Integration for Plant Breeding, edited by Henry T. Nguyen and Abraham Blum Global Water Dynamics: Shallow and Deep Groundwater: Petroleum Hydrology: Hydrothermal Fluids, and Landscaping, edited by Emanuel Mazor Principles of Soil Physics, edited by Rattan Lal Seeds Handbook: Biology, Production,Processing, and Storage, Second Edition, Babasaheb B. Desai Field Sampling: Principles and Practices in Environmental Analysis, edited by Alfred R. Conklin © 2005 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC Sustainable Agriculture and the International Rice-Wheat System, edited by Rattan Lal, Peter R. Hobbs, Norman Uphoff, and David O. Hansen Plant Toxicology, Fourth Edition, edited by Bertold Hock and Erich F. Elstner Drought and Water Crises: Science, Technology, and Management Issues, edited by Donald A. Wilhite Soil Sampling, Preparation, and Analysis, Second Edition, Kim H. Tan Climate Change and Global Food Security, edited by Rattan Lal, Norman Uphoff, B. A. Stewart, and David O. Hansen Handbook of Photosynthesis, Second Edition, edited by Mohammad Pessarakli Soil Sampling, Preparation, and Analysis: Second Edition, Kim H. Tan © 2005 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC Climate Change and Global Food Security Boca Raton London New York Singapore A CRC title, part of the Taylor & Francis imprint, a member of the Taylor & Francis Group, the academic division of T&F Informa plc. Rattan Lal The Ohio State University Columbus, Ohio, U.S.A. Norman Uphoff Cornell University Ithaca, New York, U.S.A. B. A. Stewart West Texas A&M University West Canyon, Texas, U.S.A. David O. Hansen The Ohio State University Columbus, Ohio, U.S.A. Edited by © 2005 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC Published in 2005 by CRC Press Taylor & Francis Group 6000 Broken Sound Parkway NW, Suite 300 Boca Raton, FL 33487-2742 © 2005 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC CRC Press is an imprint of Taylor & Francis Group No claim to original U.S. Government works Printed in the United States of America on acid-free paper 10987654321 International Standard Book Number-10: 0-8247-2536-0 (Hardcover) International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-8247-2536-5 (Hardcover) Library of Congress Card Number 2004063439 This book contains information obtained from authentic and highly regarded sources. Reprinted material is quoted with permission, and sources are indicated. A wide variety of references are listed. Reasonable efforts have been made to publish reliable data and information, but the author and the publisher cannot assume responsibility for the validity of all materials or for the consequences of their use. No part of this book may be reprinted, reproduced, transmitted, or utilized in any form by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying, microfilming, and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without written permission from the publishers. Danvers, MA 01923, 978-750-8400. CCC is a not-for-profit organization that provides licenses and registration for a variety of users. For organizations that have been granted a photocopy license by the CCC, a separate system of payment has been arranged. Trademark Notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Climate change and global food security / edited by R. Lal … [et al.]. p. cm. (Books in soils, plants, and the environment ; v. 96) Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 0-8247-2536-0 1. Climate changes. 2. Crops and climate. 3. Crop yields. 4. Food supply. I. Lal, R. II. Series. S600.7.C54C6524 2005 338.1'4 dc22 2004063439 Visit the Taylor & Francis Web site at http://www.taylorandfrancis.com and the CRC Press Web site at http://www.crcpress.com Taylor & Francis Group is the Academic Division of T&F Informa plc. © 2005 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC For permission to photocopy or use material electronically from this work, please access www.copyright.com (http://www.copyright.com/) or contact the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc. (CCC) 222 Rosewood Drive, iii Preface Anthropogenic perturbation of the global carbon cycle has increased the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide, and decreased the carbon pool in the world’s agricultural soils. Since the industrial revolution, the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide has increased by about 30% from 280 parts per million by volume (ppmv) to 370 ppmv. This increase is attributed to emissions of carbon from fossil fuel combustion estimated at 270 Pg (gigatons), and from land use change and soil cultivation estimated at 136 Pg. Conversion of natural to agricultural ecosystems, with attendant soil erosion and rapid mineralization of soil organic matter, has depleted the carbon pool by 66 to 90 Pg for global soils, and 3 to 5 Pg for soils in the United States. Depletion of the soil organic carbon pool has adverse impacts on soil quality leading to increase in risks of soil erosion, decline in aggregation and soil structure, reduction in plant avail- able water capacity, decline in activity and species diversity of soil fauna, and overall decline in agronomic/biomass productivity. The decline in soil quality is more severe in soils of the tropics than temperate regions, and in soils managed for low-input subsistence farming than those under intensive commercial agriculture. Soils of Sub-Saharan Africa, Central and South Asia, and tropical © 2005 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC [...]... 71 Roy Darwin, Stacey Rosen, and Shahla Shapouri Chapter 5 Climate Change, Soil Carbon Dynamics, and Global Food Security 11 3 Rattan Lal SECTION II Climate Change and Net Primary Productivity Chapter 6 Climate Change Effects on the Water Supply in Some Major River Basins 14 7 Ranjan S Muttiah and Ralph A Wurbs Chapter 7 Climate Change and Terrestrial Ecosystem Production 17 3... Cerri, and Keith Paustian © 2005 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC Contents ix SECTION III Climate Change and Agronomic Production Chapter 10 Climate Change, Agriculture, and Sustainability 243 Cynthia Rosenzweig and Daniel Hillel Chapter 11 Assessing the Consequences of Climate Change for Food Security: A View from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 269 William Easterling Chapter 12 Climate. .. with Climate Change 3 Pedro A Sanchez Chapter 2 World Food Security: Perspectives Past, Present, and Future 21 Dennis J Greenland Chapter 3 Changing Times and Direction 39 Robert D Havener, Christopher R Dowswell, and Norman E Borlaug vii © 2005 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC viii Climate Change and Global Food Security Chapter 4 Greenhouse Gases and Food Security in Low-Income... Chapter 12 Climate Change and Tropical Agriculture: Implications for Social Vulnerability and Food Security 293 Hallie Eakin Chapter 13 Effects of Global Climate Change on Agricultural Pests: Possible Impacts and Dynamics at Population, Species Interaction, and Community Levels 3 21 Anthony Joern, J David Logan, and William Wolesensky Chapter 14 Food Security and Production in Dryland Regions ... 363 B.A Stewart Chapter 15 Climate Change and Crop Production: Challenges to Modeling Future Scenarios 383 Eugene S Takle and Zaitao Pan © 2005 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC x Climate Change and Global Food Security SECTION IV Soil Carbon Dynamics and Farming/Cropping Systems Chapter 16 Soil Carbon Sequestration: Understanding and Predicting Responses to Soil, Climate, and Management 407... while Coping with Climate Change 11 75 0 -1 000 Tanzania 50 0-7 50 25 0-5 00 < 250 Mozambique No change Zambia Zimbabwe Figure 1. 1 Maize calorie deficit (kcal/person/day) in Southern Africa caused by climate change and human population growth in 2050 (From Jones and Thornton, 20 01) 10 0 CO2 350 ppm 690 ppm 840 ppm % Fertile grains 80 60 40 20 0 32 34 36 38 40 Max temper ature (°C) 42 Figure 1. 2 Relationship... Agricultural Economics and Economics Montana State University Bozeman, Montana Section I Global Food Security © 2005 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC 1 Reducing Hunger in Tropical Africa while Coping with Climate Change PEDRO A SANCHEZ CONTENTS 1. 1 1. 2 Reducing Hunger in Africa 6 Coping with Climate Change 7 1. 2 .1 Impact 8 1. 3 Estimating Biomass of Young Tropical Vegetation 8 1. 4 How to Measure... Bolek, Steven W Muliokela, and Albert Chalabesa SECTION V Policy and Economic Issues Chapter 26 Policy and Economic Issues Dealing with Global Warming 6 41 G Edward Schuh Chapter 27 Confronting the Twin Problems of Global Warming and Food Insecurity 657 Luther Tweeten © 2005 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC xii Climate Change and Global Food Security Chapter 28 Policies and Incentive Mechanisms... Capita Food Caloric Intake Undernourished Production Index 19 99 19 99 19 99 /19 61 cal/person/day % Sub-Saharan Africa South Asia East Asia Latin America 87 12 0 14 9 13 3 219 5 2403 29 21 2824 34 12 6 6 Source: Food and Agriculture Organization 2003 FAOSTAT: FAO Statistical Database Available at: http://apps.fao.org/ © 2005 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC Reducing Hunger in Tropical Africa while Coping with Climate. .. Measure Soil Carbon 9 1. 5 Sharpening Predictive Tools for Key Agroecosystems 10 1. 6 Adapting to Thermal Damage 10 1. 7 Mitigation 12 1. 7 .1 High Carbon Sequestration Potential of Tropical Agroecosystems 12 1. 7.2 Carbon Sequestration by Smallholder Farming Communities 15 1. 8 Conclusion 16 Acknowledgment 16 References 16 3 © 2005 by Taylor & Francis . States of America on acid-free paper 10 9876543 21 International Standard Book Number -1 0 : 0-8 24 7-2 53 6-0 (Hardcover) International Standard Book Number -1 3 : 97 8-0 -8 24 7-2 53 6-5 (Hardcover) Library. LLC viii Climate Change and Global Food Security Chapter 4 Greenhouse Gases and Food Security in Low-Income Countries 71 Roy Darwin, Stacey Rosen, and Shahla Shapouri Chapter 5 Climate Change, . Dynamics, and Global Food Security 11 3 Rattan Lal SECTION II Climate Change and Net Primary Productivity Chapter 6 Climate Change Effects on the Water Supply in Some Major River Basins 14 7 Ranjan