© 2006 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC Climate Change and Managed Ecosystems © 2006 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC Climate Change and Managed Ecosystems Edited by J.S. Bhatti R. Lal M.J. Apps M.A. Price Published in 2006 by CRC Press Taylor & Francis Group 6000 Broken Sound Parkway NW, Suite 300 Boca Raton, FL 33487-2742 © 2006 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC CRC Press is an imprint of Taylor & Francis Group No claim to original U.S. Government works Printed in the United States of America on acid-free paper 10987654321 International Standard Book Number-10: 0-8493-3097-1 (Hardcover) International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-8493-3097-1 (Hardcover) Library of Congress Card Number 2005028910 This book contains information obtained from authentic and highly regarded sources. Reprinted material is quoted with permission, and sources are indicated. A wide variety of references are listed. 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Trademark Notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Climate change and managed ecosystems / edited by J.S. Bhatti [et al.]. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN-10: 0-8493-3097-1 (hardcover) 1. Climatic changes. 2. Ecosystem management. I. Bhatti, J. S. (Jagtar S.) QC981.8.C5C5113823 2006 333.95 dc22 2005028910 Visit the Taylor & Francis Web site at http://www.taylorandfrancis.com and the CRC Press Web site at http://www.crcpress.com Taylor & Francis Group is the Academic Division of Informa plc. © 2006 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC Preface The idea for this book arose during the planning phases of an International Confer- ence in Edmonton, Canada in July 2004 entitled “The Science of Changing Climates — Impacts on Agriculture, Forestry and Wetlands.” The conference was organized jointly by the Canadian Societies of Animal Science, Plant Science and Soil Science with support from Natural Resources Canada/Canadian Forest Service because they saw climate change as one of the most serious environmental problems facing the world. The United Nations Convention on Climate Change (UN 1992, article 2) called for a “ stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system ” For agriculture, forestry and wetlands, these potentially dangerous interferences include changes in ecosystems boundaries, loss of biodiversity, increased frequency of ecosystem disturbance by fire and insects, and loss and degradation of wetlands. Regional temperature increases, precipitation increases and decreases, change in soil moisture availability, climatic variability and the occurrence of extreme events are all likely to influence the nature of these impacts. The book is organized into five main parts. Part 1: Climate Change and Ecosystems (Chapters 1–3). We discuss the fragility of ecosystems in the face of changing climates, particularly through human-caused increases in atmospheric GHGs. Chapter 2 details how and why the climate has changed in the past; and what can be expected to occur in the foreseeable future. The implications of climate change to agriculture, forestry and wetland ecosystems in Canada are discussed in Chapter 3, and potential adaptation responses to reduce the impacts of a changing climate are identified. Part 2: Managed Ecosystems — State of Knowledge (Chapters 4–15). We explore what is known about the impacts of climate on our agricultural, forested and wetland ecosystems. This section illustrates the importance of terrestrial eco- systems in the global carbon cycle and focuses on discussions of the potential interaction between terrestrial and atmospheric carbon pools under changing climatic conditions. Our current understanding of the impact of climate change on food and fiber production as well as the potential role of the different ecosystems in carbon source/sink relationships has been discussed in detail here. Part 3: Knowledge Gaps and Challenges (Chapters 16–18). We attempt to iden- tify what needs to be known and done to ensure continued stability in these ecosys- tems. This part includes a description of some of the activities that have been undertaken in the past to identify gaps in our understanding of GHGs emissions from agriculture, forest and wetland and their mitigation, as well as current research initiatives to address these gaps. Part 4: Economics and Policy Issues (Chapter 19). This provides an overview of economic reasoning applied to climate change and illustrates how terrestrial © 2006 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC carbon-uptake credits (offset credits) operate within the Kyoto Protocol framework. Attention is focused on the potential of terrestrial carbon sinks to slow the rate of CO 2 buildup in the atmosphere. Part 5: Summary and Recommendations (Chapters 20–21). We give an overall view of the knowledge gained from the conference and identify research needs to achieve reduced atmospheric carbon levels. The first chapter (Chapter 20) synthe- sizes the major findings of all the previous chapters and examines the implications for different ecosystems. The second chapter (Chapter 21) identifies key knowledge gaps relating to climate and climate-change effects on agriculture, forestry, and wetlands. It further points toward the needs to make management of these ecosys- tems part of a global solution, by identifying gaps in the current understanding of adaptation or mitigation strategies for terrestrial ecosystems. While we are confident that the material contained in this book will be helpful to anyone seeking up-to-date information, we are also aware that in such a rapidly evolving field it is inevitable that material will quickly become dated. With that in mind we encourage you, the reader, to contact the chapter authors for their current views and information on the topics covered. J.S. Bhatti R. Lal M.J. Apps M.A. Price © 2006 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC Acknowledgments This book would not have been possible without the assistance of a great many people and organizations. We would like to acknowledge in particular our Platinum Sponsors: Alberta Agriculture, Food and Rural Development; Canadian Adaptation and Rural Development Fund; Canadian Climate Impacts and Adaptation Research Network; National Agroclimate Information Service; Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service; Poplar Council of Canada; Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative; and University of Alberta; our Gold Sponsor: Ducks Unlimited; and our Silver Sponsors: Agrium and MERIAL/igenity. We also want to gratefully acknowledge the thorough work of our anonymous group of reviewers, who helped to ensure that the manuscripts met the highest scientific standards. Thanks, too, to Cindy Rowles for her invaluable clerical assistance and advice. And finally, thanks are due to the managers and staff of Taylor & Francis Group for their careful attention to detail in publishing this book. © 2006 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC About the Editors J.S. Bhatti, Ph.D., is a research scientist and project leader with Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Northern Forestry Centre, in Edmonton, Alberta. He received his Ph.D. in soil science from University of Florida and started working for Natural Resources Canada, where he concentrated on nutrient dynamics in boreal forests under various harvesting practices and moisture regimes. Dr. Bhatti’s interest in climate change moved him to Northern Forestry Centre in 1997, where his focus has been on carbon dynamics under changing climate and disturbance regimes both in upland and low land boreal forest ecosystems. His scientific publications deal with improving the precision of carbon stock and carbon stock estimates, changes in forest carbon dynamics in relation to disturbances, moisture, nutrient and climate regimes, and understanding the influence of bio- physical processes on forest dynamics. He is coordinating a national effort to monitor forest carbon dynamics to understand and quantify the prospective impacts of climate change on Canadian forests. R. Lal, Ph.D., is a professor of soil physics in the School of Natural Resources and Director of the Carbon Management and Sequestration Center, FAES/OARDC at The Ohio State University. He was a soil physicist for 18 years at the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture, Ibadan, Nigeria. In Africa, Professor Lal conducted long-term experiments on land use, watershed management, methods of deforesta- tion, and agroforestry. Since joining The Ohio State University in 1987, he has worked on soils and climate change. Professor Lal is a fellow of the Soil Science Society of America, American Society of Agronomy, Third World Academy of Sciences, American Association for the Advancement of Sciences, Soil and Water Conservation Society and Indian Academy of Agricultural Sciences. Dr. Lal is the recipient of the International Soil Science Award, the Soil Science Applied Research Award and Soil Science Research Award of the Soil Science Society of America, the International Agronomy Award and Environment Quality Research Award of the American Society of Agronomy, the Hugh Hammond Bennett Award of the Soil and Water Conservation Society, and the Borlaug Award. He is the recipient of an honorary degree of Doctor of Science from Punjab Agricultural University, India, and of the Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Aas, Norway. He is past president of the World Association of the Soil and Water Conservation and the International Soil Tillage Research Organization. He was a member of the U.S. National Committee on Soil Science of the National Academy of Sciences (1998–2002). He has served on the Panel on Sustainable Agriculture and the Envi- ronment in the Humid Tropics of the National Academy of Sciences. He has authored and co-authored more than 1100 research publications. He has written 9 books and edited or co-edited 43 books. © 2006 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC M.J. Apps, Ph.D., retired as senior scientist, carbon and climate change, from Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service in 2005, but continues to work part time on various international projects. He obtained his Ph.D. in physics from the University of Bristol, and continued in solid state physics as a research associate at Simon Fraser University before moving to the University of Alberta to take a research position in the Faculty of Pharmacy and Pharmaceutical Sciences, where he set up the Neutron Activation Analysis system for trace element analysis at the Slowpoke Nuclear Reactor. His interest in environmental issues led him to join the Canadian Forest Service in 1980, where he initiated research on trace pollutants and radionuclides in the terrestrial environment. He moved into climate change and carbon cycling as a focus for his work in forest ecosystem modeling in 1990, and spearheaded the development of the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector, now used for Canada's reporting under the Kyoto Protocol. Dr. Apps is the author or co-author of more than 200 published manuscripts, has served as lead or convening lead author on many reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and sits on several international and national scientific steering committees on global change issues. He has received significant national and international recognition, including the International Forestry Achievement Award presented at the World Forestry Congress, an honorary diploma issued by the International Boreal Forest Research Association in St. Petersburg, designated Leader of Sustainable Development by the five natural resource departments of the government of Canada, and the 2005 Award of Excellence by the Public Service of Canada. M.A. Price, Ph.D., P.Ag., FAIC, is professor emeritus of livestock growth and meat production at the University of Alberta and was, until his retirement in 2004, research director at the university’s Beef Cattle Research Ranch at Kinsella, Alberta. He was born and raised on the family farm in the U.K., and farmed there after high school. He received his post-secondary education at the University of Zimbabwe (B.Sc., agriculture), University of New England, Australia (M.Rur.Sc. and Ph.D. in livestock production) and University of Alberta, Canada (NRC post-doctoral fellowship in animal science). Dr. Price served as chairman of the Department of Animal Science at the University of Alberta from 1987 to 1995. His areas of research concentrate mainly on sustainable methods of increasing efficiency and decreasing costs of production in meat production systems. He has published more than 115 scientific papers in peer-reviewed journals, and more than 130 extension articles in trade and industry magazines. He is the editor of the Canadian Journal of Animal Science. © 2006 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC CONTRIBUTORS M.J. Apps Canadian Forest Service Natural Resources Canada Pacific Forestry Centre Victoria, BC, Canada T. Asada Wetlands Research Centre University of Waterloo Waterloo, ON, Canada J.K.A. Atakora Department of Agricultural, Food & Nutritional Science Agriculture/Forestry Centre University of Alberta Edmonton, AB, Canada R.O. Ball Department of Agricultural, Food & Nutritional Science Agriculture/Forestry Centre University of Alberta Edmonton, AB, Canada V.S. Baron Crops & Soils Research Station Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Lacombe, AB, Canada I.E. Bauer Canadian Forest Service Northern Forestry Centre Edmonton, AB, Canada P.Y. Bernier Canadian Forest Service Natural Resources Canada Saint-Foy, PQ, Canada J.S. Bhatti Natural Resources Canada Canadian Forest Service North Forestry Centre Edmonton, AB, Canada D. Burton Nova Scotia Agricultural College Truro, NS, Canada J. Casson Alberta Agriculture, Food & Rural Development Agriculture Centre Lethbridge, AB, Canada O.G. Clark Department of Agricultural, Food & Nutritional Science Agriculture/Forestry Centre University of Alberta Edmonton, AB, Canada W.A. Dugas Texas Agricultural Experiment Station Texas A&M University College Station, TX, USA I. Edeogu Technical Services Division Alberta Agriculture, Food & Rural Development Edmonton, AB, Canada J.J. Feddes Department of Agricultural, Food & Nutritional Science Agriculture/Forestry Centre University of Alberta Edmonton, AB, Canada © 2006 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC H. Hengeveld Environment Canada Scientific Assessment and Integration Downsview, ON, Canada G. Hoogenboom Department of Biological & Agricultural Engineering The University of Georgia Griffin, GA, USA B.C. Joern Department of Agronomy West Lafayette, IN, USA C. La Bine Campbell Scientific (Canada) Corp. Edmonton, AB, Canada R. Lal School of Natural Resources College of Food, Agricultural & Environmental Sciences The Ohio State University Columbus, OH, USA D.B. Layzell BIOCAP Canada Foundation Queen’s University Kingston, ON, Canada J.J. Leonard Department of Agricultural, Food & Nutritional Science University of Alberta Edmonton, AB, Canada P.C. Mielnick Blackland Research Center Texas A&M University Temple, TX, USA S. Moehn Department of Agricultural, Food & Nutritional Science University of Alberta Edmonton, AB, Canada B. Morin Technical Services Division Alberta Agriculture, Food & Rural Development Edmonton, AB, Canada L.D. Mortsch Adaptation and Impacts Research Group Meteorological Service of Canada Environment Canada University of Waterloo Waterloo, ON, Canada K.H. Ominski Department of Animal Science University of Manitoba Winnipeg, MB, Canada J.D. Price Technical Services Division Alberta Agriculture, Food & Rural Development Edmonton, AB, Canada M.A. Price Department of Agricultural, Food & Nutritional Science University of Alberta Edmonton, AB, Canada B.T. Richert Department of Animal Sciences Purdue University West Lafayette, IN, USA M.A. Sanderson USDA-ARS Pasture Systems & Watershed Management Research Unit University Park, PA, USA W.C. Sauer Department of Agricultural, Food & Nutritional Science University of Alberta Edmonton, AB, Canada © 2006 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC [...]... 1. 1 1. 2 1. 3 Introduction 3 Past and Future Climate Change .5 Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Agriculture, Forestry, and Wetland Ecosystems 7 1. 4 Climate Change in Relation to Agriculture, Forestry, and Wetlands 9 1. 4 .1 Agricultural Ecosystems 9 1. 4.2 Forest Ecosystems 9 1. 4.3 Wetland/Peatland Ecosystems 11 1. 5 Purpose of This Book 12 1. 6... Stocks and Net Primary Productivity of the Major Terrestrial Biomes Biome Tropical forests Temperate forests Boreal forests Northern peatlands Arctic tundra Crops Tropical grasslands Temperate grasslands Deserts Area (10 9 ha )18 1. 76 1. 04 1. 37 0.26 0.95 1. 60 2.25 1. 25 4.55 Carbon Stock (Pg C )18 428 15 9 290 419 12 7 13 1 330 304 19 9 Total C NPP (Pg C yr 1) 19 21. 9 8 .1 2.6 — 0.50 4 .1 14.9 4.4 3.5 1. 2 PAST AND. .. -5 -1 0 -1 5 -2 0 -2 5 -3 0 19 45 19 50 19 55 19 60 19 65 19 70 19 75 19 80 19 85 19 90 19 95 2000 2005 2 010 Year/Année FIGURE 1. 3 Canadian winter precipitation deviation from weight running mean between 19 48 and 2005 (Courtesy of Environment Canada.7) © 2006 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC Interaction between Climate Change and Greenhouse Gas Emissions 7 1. 3 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS FROM AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY, AND. .. PART I Climate Change and Ecosystems Chapter 1 Interaction between Climate Change and Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Managed Ecosystems in Canada 3 J.S Bhatti, M.J Apps, and R Lal Chapter 2 The Science of Changing Climates .17 H Hengeveld Chapter 3 Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture, Forestry, and Wetlands .45 L.D Mortsch PART II Managed Ecosystems — State of Knowledge Chapter. .. Group, LLC 4 Climate Change and Managed Ecosystems Land Degradation Climate Change Food and Fiber Supply Agriculture, Forest and Wetlands/Peatlands FIGURE 1. 1 Linkage between various climate change issues and different ecosystems and forest production systems will need to change rapidly to meet the challenge of the inevitable changes in the mosaic of ecosystems across the landscape Agricultural ecosystems. .. Forestry 50 0 Land-use Transportation Other Agriculture Change and Waste and Industries Landfill Forestry Petroleum (non-CO2 only) Industries Electricity -5 0 and -1 00 -1 50 -2 00 FIGURE 1. 4 Change in GHG emissions and sinks for Canada between 19 90 and 2002 for different sectors (Courtesy of Environment Canada.7) (17 % or 10 .2 Tg of C) While total sector emissions rose 2% between 19 90 and 20 01, emissions from... Climate Change and Terrestrial Ecosystem Management: Knowledge Gaps and Research Needs 411 I.E Bauer, M.J Apps, J.S Bhatti, and R Lal © 2006 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC Part I Climate Change and Ecosystems © 2006 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC 1 Interaction between Climate Change and Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Managed Ecosystems in Canada J.S Bhatti, M.J Apps, and R Lal CONTENTS 1. 1... Knowledge Gaps and Challenges Chapter 16 Identifying and Addressing Knowledge Gaps and Challenges Involving Greenhouse Gases in Agriculture Systems under Climate Change . 319 D Burton and J Sauvé Chapter 17 Knowledge Gaps and Challenges in Forest Ecosystems under Climate Change: A Look at the Temperate and Boreal Forests of North America 333 P.Y Bernier and M.J Apps Chapter 18 Knowledge Gaps and Challenges... Wetlands under Climate Change in Canada .355 B.G Warner and T Asada PART IV Economics and Policy Issues Chapter 19 Economics of Forest and Agricultural Carbon Sinks 375 G.C van Kooten PART V Summary and Recommendations Chapter 20 Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture, Forest, and Wetland Ecosystems: Synthesis and Summary 399 J.M.R Stone, J.S Bhatti, and R Lal Chapter 21. .. 19 50 19 55 19 60 19 65 19 70 19 75 19 80 19 85 19 90 19 95 2000 2005 2 010 Year/Année FIGURE 1. 2 Canadian winter temperature deviation with weight running mean between 19 48 and 2005 (Courtesy of Environment Canada.7) 30 25 Environment Canada Environment Canada Meteorological Service of Canada Service meteorologique du Canada Climate Research Branch Direction de la recherche climatologique 20 15 10 % 5 0 -5 -1 0 . climatologique 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -1 0 -1 5 -2 0 -2 5 -3 0 % 19 45 19 50 19 55 19 60 19 65 19 70 19 75 19 80 19 85 19 90 19 95 2000 2005 2 010 Year/Année © 2006 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC Interaction between Climate Change. Forestry, and Wetlands 9 1. 4 .1 Agricultural Ecosystems 9 1. 4.2 Forest Ecosystems 9 1. 4.3 Wetland/Peatland Ecosystems 11 1. 5 Purpose of This Book 12 1. 6 Summary and Conclusions 13 References 14 1. 1 INTRODUCTION The. States of America on acid-free paper 10 9876543 21 International Standard Book Number -1 0 : 0-8 49 3-3 09 7 -1 (Hardcover) International Standard Book Number -1 3 : 97 8-0 -8 49 3-3 09 7 -1 (Hardcover) Library