Part IV Integration and Conclusions DK2949_book.fm Page 387 Friday, February 11, 2005 11:25 AM Copyright 2005 by Taylor & Francis Group 389 15 Drought and Water Crises: Lessons Learned and the Road Ahead DONALD A. WILHITE AND ROGER S. PULWARTY CONTENTS I. Introduction 389 II. Moving from Crisis to Risk Management: Changing the Paradigm 392 III. Final Thoughts 395 References 398 I. INTRODUCTION Despite the fact that drought is an inevitable feature of cli- mate for nearly all climatic regimes, progress on drought preparedness has been extremely slow. Many nations now feel a growing sense of urgency to move forward with a more DK2949_book.fm Page 389 Friday, February 11, 2005 11:25 AM Copyright 2005 by Taylor & Francis Group 390 Wilhite and Pulwarty proactive, risk-based drought management approach (ISDR, 2003; Wilhite, 2000). Certainly the widespread occurrence of this insidious natural hazard in recent years has contributed to the sense of urgency. But, drought occurs in many parts of the world and affects portions of many countries on an annual basis. For example, the average area affected by severe and extreme drought in the United States each year is 14%. This figure has been as high as 65% (1934) and has hovered in the 35–40% range in recent years. So, does the widespread occur- rence of drought in the United States over the last 5–6 years explain the emergence of several national initiatives centered on drought monitoring and preparedness, given that events of this magnitude have not motivated policy makers to act in the past? Our experience would suggest that this is only one of the factors contributing to the increased attention being directed to this subject in the United States and in other drought-prone countries. Climate change and the potential threat of an increase in frequency and severity of extreme events are also a con- tributing factor. However, the uncertainty associated with climate change is probably not playing a significant role in this trend because most policy makers have difficulty thinking beyond their term of office or the next election. For regions that have in recent decades experienced either a downward trend of annual precipitation or a higher frequency of drought events (perhaps multi-year in length), or both, the potential threat of climate change already seems real. Decision making under uncertainty is onerous, but critically important. Policy makers and resource managers often seem of the opinion that climate change projections are in error, preferring to presume that there will not be a change in the climate state and that extreme climatic events such as drought will not change in frequency or severity. Little consideration is given to the real posibility fact that projected changes in climate may be too conservative or underestimate the degree of change in the frequency and severity of extreme events for some locations. In our view, the most significant factor explaining the growing interest in drought preparedness is associated with the documented increase in social and economic vulnerability DK2949_book.fm Page 390 Friday, February 11, 2005 11:25 AM Copyright 2005 by Taylor & Francis Group Drought and Water Crises 391 as exemplified by the increase in the magnitude and complex- ity of impacts. Although global figures for the trends in eco- nomic losses associated with drought do not exist, a recent report from the U.N. Development Program (UNDP Bureau of Crisis Prevention and Recovery, 2004) indicates that annual losses associated with natural disasters increased from US$75.5 billion in the 1960s to nearly US$660 billion in the 1990s. Losses resulting from drought likely follow a similar trend. In addition, these figures for natural disasters are likely underestimated because of the inexact reporting or insufficiency of the data. And, these loss estimates do not include social and environmental costs associated with natu- ral disasters over time. This increase has been observed in both developing and developed countries, although the types of impacts differ markedly in most cases, as illustrated by numerous authors in this book. With respect to drought, how can we define vulnerability? It is usually expressed in terms of a society’s capacity to anticipate, cope with, resist or adapt to, and recover from the impact of a natural hazard. Vulnerability is represented by a continuum from low to high and varies among community, population group, region, state, and nation. It is the result of many social factors. For example, population is not only increasing but also shifting from humid to more arid climates in some areas and from rural to urban settings for most locations. As population increases and lifestyles change, so do the pressures on water and other natural resources. Conflicts between water users escalate accordingly. Population increases force more people to reside in climatically marginal areas where exposure to drought is higher and the capacity to recover is diminished. Urbanization is placing more pres- sure on limited water supplies and overwhelming the capacity of water supply systems to deliver that water to users, espe- cially during periods of peak demand. An increasingly urban- ized population is also increasing conflict between agricultural and urban water users, a trend that will only be exacerbated in the future. More sophisticated technology decreases our vulnerability to drought in some instances while increasing it in others. Greater awareness of our envi- DK2949_book.fm Page 391 Friday, February 11, 2005 11:25 AM Copyright 2005 by Taylor & Francis Group 392 Wilhite and Pulwarty ronment and the need to preserve and restore environmental quality is placing increased pressure on all of us to be better stewards of our physical and biological resources. Environ- mental degradation such as desertification is reducing the biological productivity of many landscapes and increasing vulnerability to drought events. All of these factors emphasize that our vulnerability to drought is dynamic and must be evaluated periodically. The recurrence of drought today of equal or similar magnitude to one experienced several decades ago will likely result in far greater economic, social, and environmental losses and conflicts between water users. II. MOVING FROM CRISIS TO RISK MANAGEMENT: CHANGING THE PARADIGM In 1986, an international symposium and workshop was orga- nized at the University of Nebraska that focused on the prin- cipal aspects of drought, ranging from prediction, early warning, and impact assessment to response, planning, and policy. The goal of this meeting was to review and assess our current knowledge of drought and determine research and information needs to improve national and international capacity to cope with drought (Wilhite and Easterling, 1987). Reflecting on this meeting today, nearly 20 years later, and its outcomes, it would seem that it may represent the begin- ning of the movement to a new paradigm in drought manage- ment—one focusing on reducing societal vulnerability to drought through a more proactive approach. Today, we are experiencing the impacts of drought in greater magnitude than ever before. Clearly, it has taken time for the policy community to become more aware of these impacts, their complexities, and the ineffectiveness of the reactive, post- impact or crisis management approach. The factors explaining the slow emergence of this new paradigm are many, but it is clear that it has emerged in many countries and in many international organizations dealing with disaster manage- ment and development issues. A more proactive, risk-based approach to drought management must rely on a strong sci- DK2949_book.fm Page 392 Friday, February 11, 2005 11:25 AM Copyright 2005 by Taylor & Francis Group Drought and Water Crises 393 ence component. It also must occur at the interstices of science and policy—a particularly uncomfortable place for many sci- entists. Figure 1 in Chapter 6 illustrates the cycle of disaster management, depicting the interconnectedness or linkages between crisis and risk management. The traditional crisis management approach has been largely ineffective, and there are many examples of how this approach has increased vul- nerability to drought because of individuals’ (i.e., disaster victims’) greater reliance on the emergency response pro- grams of government and donor organizations. Drought relief or assistance, for example, often rewards the poor resource manager who has not planned for drought whereas the better resource manager who has employed appropriate mitigation tools is not eligible for this assistance. Thus, drought relief is often a disincentive for improved resource management. Should government reward good stewardship of natural resources and planning or unsustainable resource manage- ment? Unfortunately, most nations have been following the latter approach for decades because of the pressures associ- ated with crises and the lack of preparation. Thus, relief can also mask fundamental underlying problems of governance and international policy. Redirecting this institutional inertia to a new paradigm offers considerable challenges for the sci- ence and policy communities. As has been underscored many times by the contributors to this volume, reducing future drought risk requires a more proactive approach, one that emphasizes preparedness plan- ning and the development of appropriate mitigation actions and programs, including improved drought monitoring and early warning. However, this approach has to be multi-the- matic and multi-sectoral because of the complexities of asso- ciated impacts and their interlinkages. Risk management favorably complements the crisis management part of the disaster management cycle such that in time one would expect the magnitude of impacts (whether economic, social, or envi- ronmental) to diminish. However, the natural tendency has been for society to revert to a position of apathy once the DK2949_book.fm Page 393 Friday, February 11, 2005 11:25 AM Copyright 2005 by Taylor & Francis Group 394 Wilhite and Pulwarty threat accompanying a disaster subsides (i.e., the proverbial “hydro-illogical cycle”; see Figure 1 in Chapter 5). This raises an important point that has not been addressed in detail in this publication: What constitutes a crisis? Crises are inextricably tied to decision making. The Merriam-Webster dictionary gives the following definitions of crisis: the decisive moment (as in a literary play); an unstable or crucial time or state of affairs whose outcome will make a decisive difference for better or for worse. The word crisis is taken from the Greek “krisis,” which literally means “deci- sion.” A crisis may be said to be occurring if a change or cumulative impacts of changes in the external or internal environment generates a threat to basic values or desired outcomes, there is a high probability of involvement in conflict (legal, military, or otherwise), and there is awareness of a finite time for response to the external value threat. A crisis is not yet a catastrophe; it is a turning point. Crisis situations can be ameliorated if different levels of decision makers per- ceive critical conditions to exist and if a change of the situation is possible for the actors. Thus informed “decision making” is key to effective mitigation of crises conditions and the proac- tive reduction of risk to acceptable levels. Being proactive about hazard management brings into play the need for deci- sion support tools to inform vulnerability reduction strategies, including improved capacity to use information about impend- ing events. A key decision support tool for crisis mitigation is embed- ded within the concept of “early warning.” As discussed in Chapter 1 and elsewhere in this volume, early warning sys- tems must be made up of several integrated subsystems, including (1) a monitoring subsystem; (2) a risk information subsystem; (3) a preparedness subsystem; and (4) a commu- nication subsystem. Early warning systems are more than scientific and technical instruments for forecasting hazards and issuing alerts. They should be understood as credible and accessible information systems designed to facilitate decision making in the context of disaster management agencies (for- mal and informal) in a way that empowers vulnerable sectors DK2949_book.fm Page 394 Friday, February 11, 2005 11:25 AM Copyright 2005 by Taylor & Francis Group Drought and Water Crises 395 and social groups to mitigate potential losses and damages from impending hazard events (Maskrey, 1997). Natural hazard risk information, let alone vulnerability reduction strategies, is rarely if ever considered in develop- ment and economic policy making. Crisis scenarios can let us view risk reduction as much from the window of opportunity provided by acting before disaster happens as from the other smaller, darker pane window following a disaster. Given the slow onset and persistent nature of drought, mitigating poten- tial impacts, in theory and in practice, must be recast as an integral part of development planning and implemented at national, regional, and local levels. Institutions responsible for responding to droughts must take a more proactive stance in assisting sectors through their own private and public institutions in preparing not only for disaster events but also in analyzing vulnerability and proposing practical pre-event mitigation actions. Impact assessment methodologies should reveal not only why vulnerability exists (who and what is at risk and why) but also the investments (economic and social) that, if chosen, will reduce vulnerability or risk to locally acceptable levels. Studies of the natural and social context of drought should include assessment of impediments to flows of knowledge and identify appropriate information entry points into policies and practices that would otherwise give rise to crisis situations (Pulwarty, 2003). III. FINAL THOUGHTS Drought results in widespread and complex impacts on society. Numerous factors influence drought vulnerability. As our pop- ulation increases and becomes more urbanized, there are growing pressures on water and natural resource managers and policy makers to minimize these impacts. This also places considerable pressure on the science community to provide better tools and credible and timely information to assist deci- sion makers. The adaptive capacity of a community (defined here in the broadest terms) means little if available tools, data, and knowledge are not used effectively. In addition, issues of sustainable development, water scarcity, transboundary water DK2949_book.fm Page 395 Friday, February 11, 2005 11:25 AM Copyright 2005 by Taylor & Francis Group 396 Wilhite and Pulwarty conflicts, environmental degradation and protection, and cli- mate change are contributing to the debate on water manage- ment. Drought certainly exacerbates all of these problems and has significant cumulative impacts across all of these areas beyond the period of its climatological occurrence. Improving drought preparedness and management is one of the key chal- lenges for the future. The motivation for this book was to provide insights into these important issues and problems and, it is hoped, point toward some real and potential solu- tions. The contributors to this volume have addressed a wide range of science, technology, and management issues in theory and practice. Building awareness of the importance of improved drought management today and investing in pre- paredness planning, mitigation, improved monitoring and early warning systems, and better forecasts will pay vast dividends now and in the future. Finding the financial resources to adopt risk-based drought preparedness plans and policies is always given as an impediment by policy and other decision makers. However, the solution is right in front of them—divert resources from reactive response programs that do little, if anything, to reduce vulnerability to drought (and, as has been demon- strated, may increase vulnerability) to a more proactive, risk- based management approach. For example, in the United States, more than $48 billion has been spent on drought assistance programs since 1988 (David Goldenberg, personal communication). One can only imagine the advances that could have been made in pre-drought mitigation strategies had a substantial portion of these funds been invested in early warning and information delivery systems, decision support tools to improve decision making, improved seasonal climate forecasts, drought planning, impact assessment methodolo- gies, and better monitoring networks. The key to invoking a new paradigm for drought management is educating the pub- lic—not only the recipients of drought assistance that have become accustomed to government interventions in times of crisis, but also the rest of the public, whose taxes are being used to compensate drought “victims” for their losses. There will always be a role for emergency response, whether for DK2949_book.fm Page 396 Friday, February 11, 2005 11:25 AM Copyright 2005 by Taylor & Francis Group Drought and Water Crises 397 drought or some other natural hazard, but it needs to be used sparingly and only when it does not conflict with preestab- lished drought policies that reflect sustainable resource man- agement practices. On the occasion of World Water Day in March 2004, the Secretary-General of the United Nations, Kofi Annan, stated: Water-related disasters, including floods, droughts, hur- ricanes, typhoons, and tropical cyclones, inflict a terrible toll on human life and property, affecting millions of peo- ple and provoking crippling economic losses. … However much we would wish to think of these as strictly natural disasters, human activities play a significant role in increasing risk and vulnerability. … Modern society has distinct advantages over those civilizations of the past that suffered or even collapsed for reasons linked to water. We have great knowledge, and the capacity to disperse that knowledge to the remotest places on earth. We are also the beneficiaries of scientific leaps that have improved weather forecasting, agricultural practices, nat- ural resources management, and disaster prevention, preparedness, and management. New technologies will continue to provide the backbone of our efforts. But only a rational and informed political, social and cultural response—and public participation in all stages of the disaster management cycle—can reduce disaster vulner- ability, and ensure that hazards do not turn into unman- ageable disasters. We would argue that the complexities of drought and its differences from other natural hazards as outlined in this book are more difficult to invoke than for any other natural hazard, especially if the goal is to mitigate impacts. Special efforts must be made to address these differences as part of drought preparedness planning, or the differences will result in a fail- ure of the mitigation and planning process. It is imperative that future drought management efforts consider the unique nature of drought, its natural and social dimensions, and the difficulties of developing effective early warning systems, reli- able seasonal forecasts, accurate and timely impact assess- ment tools, comprehensive drought preparedness plans, DK2949_book.fm Page 397 Friday, February 11, 2005 11:25 AM Copyright 2005 by Taylor & Francis Group [...]... 11:25 AM 398 Wilhite and Pulwarty effective mitigation and response actions, and drought policies that reinforce sustainable resource management objectives REFERENCES Downs, A., Up and down with ecology: The “issue-attention” cycle, The Public Interest, 28, 38, 1972 ISDR, Drought: Living with Risk (An Integrated Approach to Reducing Societal Vulnerability to Drought) , ISDR Ad Hoc Drought Discussion Group,... Discussion Group, Geneva, Switzerland, 2003 Maskrey, A., Report on National and Local Capabilities for Early Warning, International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction Secretariat, Geneva, October 1997 Merriam-Webster, New Collegiate Dictionary G & C Merriam Company Springfield, MA 1977 p 270 Pulwarty, R.S., Climate and Water in the West: Science, Information and Decision making Water Resources Update 124,... UNDP Bureau of Crisis Prevention and Recovery, Reducing Disaster Risk: A Challenge for Development (A Global Report) New York: UNDP, 2004 Wilhite, D.A (ed.), Drought: A Global Assessment, Volumes 1–2, Hazards and Disasters: A Series of Definitive Major Works, edited by A.Z Keller London: Routledge Publishers, 2000 Wilhite, D.A and W.E Easterling (eds.), Planning for Drought: Toward a Reduction of Societal... Keller London: Routledge Publishers, 2000 Wilhite, D.A and W.E Easterling (eds.), Planning for Drought: Toward a Reduction of Societal Vulnerability, Proceedings of the International Symposium and Workshop on Drought, Westview Press, Boulder, CO, September 1987 Copyright 2005 by Taylor & Francis Group . important issues and problems and, it is hoped, point toward some real and potential solu- tions. The contributors to this volume have addressed a wide range of science, technology, and management issues. plan- ning and the development of appropriate mitigation actions and programs, including improved drought monitoring and early warning. However, this approach has to be multi-the- matic and multi-sectoral. Francis Group 396 Wilhite and Pulwarty conflicts, environmental degradation and protection, and cli- mate change are contributing to the debate on water manage- ment. Drought certainly exacerbates