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13 The Beginning of Global Warming Management an exchange set up expressly for that—a global carbon market. As a business venture, the Protocol allows groups of Annex I countries to join together to create a market within a market. Several exist today, such as in the European Union (EU), which created the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). e EU ETS uses EAUs (EU allowance units), which are each equivalent to a Kyoto assigned amount unit (AAU). e United Kingdom uses the UK ETS. e sources of Kyoto credits are what are called the clean develop- ment mechanism (CDM) and joint implementation (JI) projects. e CDM allows the creation of new carbon credits by developing emis- sion reduction projects in non–Annex I countries. Under the Protocol, countries’ actual emissions have to be monitored and precise records have to be kept of the trades carried out. Registry systems trace and record transactions by countries under the mechanisms. e UN Cli- mate Change Secretariat, based in Bonn, Germany, keeps an interna- tional transaction log to verify that transactions are consistent with the rules of the Protocol. e enforcement branch was created and given the responsibility to ensure compliance. If it is determined that an Annex I country is not in compliance with its emissions limitation, then the country is required to make up the dierence plus an additional 30 per- cent. In addition, that country is then suspended from making transfers under an emissions trading program. Since the Protocol’s inception, it has become apparent that in order to meet the original objective of stabilizing GHG emissions to con- trol global warming, even larger emission reductions will need to be achieved than those originally required by Kyoto. e table on page 14 illustrates the changes in GHG emissions of some prominent countries. When the United Nations met at their annual climate conference in December 2005 in Montreal, participating nations began negotiations for a second set of targets for the period beginning in 2013 (once the original period ended in 2012). Currently, 2009 is a crucial year in the international arena of nding a workable solution to climate change. In 2007, the parties agreed to create an ambitious and eective interna- tional response to climate change to be agreed on at the climate confer- ence in Copenhagen in December 2009. 14 CLIMATE MANAGEMENT THE U.S. RESPONSE AND INTERNATIONAL REACTIONS While the bulk of the world’s countries agreed to Kyoto, the United States took a dierent stance, choosing to approach the issue on its own terms. U.S. Response e former vice president Al Gore was a main participant in putting the Kyoto Protocol together in 1997. President Bill Clinton signed the agreement on November 12, 1997, but the U.S. Senate refused to ratify Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Prominent Countries COUNTRY CHANGE IN GHG EMISSIONS 19922007 India +103% China +150% United States +20% Russian Federation -20% Japan +11% Worldwide Total +38% Note: According to estimates from the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), in the second half of 2008 there was a halving of the annual increase in global CO 2 emissions from fossil fuel use and cement production. Emis- sions increased by 1.7 percent in 2008 against 3.3 percent in 2007. Since 2002, the overall worldwide annual increase has averaged 4 percent. Besides high oil prices and financial crises, the increased use of renewable energy resources (such as biofuels for highway transportation and wind energy for electricity generation) has caused a noticeable mitigating impact on CO 2 emissions. CO 2 emissions in the United States fell 3.12 percent in 2008, and, for the first time, were surpassed by those from China. There was a small absolute decline in the European Union as a whole, with declines also reported in Australia and Japan. Emissions in the Eastern European/CIS region increased 1.72 percent in 2008. Emissions from the large developing nations of Brazil, China, and India grew 6.9 percent, 6.6 percent, and 7.2 percent, respectively—together these nations ac- counted for 27.6 percent of the world total in 2008. 15 The Beginning of Global Warming Management it, citing potential damage to the U.S. economy if the nation were forced to comply. e Senate also objected because Kyoto excluded certain developing countries, including China and India, from having to com- ply with new emission standards. On March 29, 2001, the Bush administration withdrew the United States from the 1997 Kyoto Protocol on Climate Change. From a state- ment released by the U.S. Embassy in Vienna, Austria, it said that although the U.S. government was committed to developing an eec- tive way to address the problem of global warming, it believed that the Kyoto Protocol was “fundamentally awed,” and therefore “is not the best approach to achieve a real environmental solution.” e adminis- tration stated that, “e Kyoto Protocol does not provide the long-term solution the world seeks to the problem of global warming. e goals of the Kyoto Protocol were established not by science, but by politi- cal negotiation, and are therefore arbitrary and ineective in nature. In addition, many countries of the world are completely exempted from the Protocol, such as China and India, who are two of the top ve emit- ters of greenhouse gases in the world. Further, the Protocol could have potentially signicant repercussions for the global economy.” President Bush commented on the treaty: “is is a challenge that requires a 100 percent eort; ours, and the rest of the world’s. e world’s second-largest emitter of greenhouse gases is the People’s Republic of China. Yet, China was entirely exempted from the requirements of the Kyoto Protocol. India and Germany are among the top emitters. Yet, India was also exempt from Kyoto . . . America’s unwillingness to embrace a awed treaty should not be read by our friends and allies as any abdication of responsibility. To the contrary, my administration is committed to a leadership role on the issue of climate change . . . Our approach must be consistent with the long-term goal of stabiliz- ing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere.” (Note that as of 2009 China has become the largest GHG emitter in the world.) erefore, 10 days aer taking oce, Bush established a cabinet- level working group to nd a more practical method to work with global climate change. e result of the working group was an energy policy that reected the seriousness of the future of U.S. environmental policy. Bush announced the Clear Skies and Global Climate Change Initiatives 16 Climate management in February 2002. e initiatives cover the following goals for managing global climate change: By 2018, emissions of the three worst air pollutants will be cut by 70 percent. In the next 10 years, the United States will cut greenhouse gas intensity by 18 percent. Goals similar to those of the Kyoto Protocol will be achieved, using market-based approaches. ese solutions dier from Kyoto in that they are based on free-market solutions. ere are four recommendations: Ensuring continuing economic growth. It is in no country’s best interest to sacrice economic growth. With market-based incentive structures to spur innovation, it will be possible to move forward in the eld of environmental conservation. Provisions under the Kyoto Protocol would rely on inex- ible regulatory structures that would distort investment and waste billions of dollars on pollution permits, accomplishing no real change for the environment. Finding global solutions. Addressing this issue must be as comprehensive as possible. All nations including developing countries, must be involved. Using the most modern technology. e United States is com- mitted to investing heavily in research and development and encouraging private companies to do the same through market- based incentives. Since 1990, the United States has spent more than all of the countries of the European Union on research in new energy and environmentally friendly technology. Focusing on bilateral relations to provide assistance. e United States has already worked with more than 56 coun- tries on their energy and environmental policies. According to Bush, “e United States fully acknowledges the problem of global warming, and is committed to pursuing a practical and sus- tainable plan to address this grave situation. e United States hopes to • • • 1. 2. 3. 4. 17 The Beginning of Global Warming Management nd a workable solution to this serious problem that aects all of us in the global community.” International Reactions e international reaction to Bush’s response to global warming was heated. Although there was faint support from some sectors that the administration nally acknowledged global warming as a problem worthy of attention and committed U.S. involvement toward nding a feasible solution, most reactions were negative. Accusing the admin- istration of trying to create a new ad hoc process—separate from the ocial framework established by the United Nations—critics stated that the U.S. response would do nothing more than distract from the progress the rest of the world was trying to make toward stabilizing climate change. If anything, they felt it would actually hamper any prog- ress being made to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and slow global warming. Great Britain and Germany especially criticized the United States, stating that all international climate agreements should logically stay within the jurisdiction of the United Nations. German chancellor Angela Merkel said, “For me, that is nonnego- tiable. In a process led by the United Nations, we must create a succes- sor to the Kyoto agreement, which ends in 2012. But it is important that they ow from the United Nations.” Hilary Benn, Britain’s international development secretary remarked, “I think it is very important that we stick with the frame- work we’ve got. In the end, we have to have one framework for reaching agreement. I think that is very clear.” Leaders from environmental groups also had strong opinions. Philip Clapp, president of the National Environmental Trust, said, “is is a transparent eort to divert attention from the president’s refusal to accept any emissions reductions proposals at next week’s G8 summit.” David Doniger, the climate policy director for the Natural Resources Defense Council, commented, “ere is no more time for longwinded talks about unenforceable long-term goals. We need to get a serious commitment to cut emissions now and in the G8.” e Bush administration oered an alternative environmental plan on June 11, 2001, promising increased environmental research 18 Climate management and commitment from the United States. Bush announced that he was “committing the United States of America to work within the United Nations framework and elsewhere to develop an eective science-based response to the issue of global warming.” Bush also stated that, “e rest of the world emits 80 percent of all greenhouse gases, and many of those emissions come from develop- ing countries. e world’s second largest emitter of greenhouse gas is China, yet China was entirely exempted from the requirements of the Kyoto Protocol.” Bush committed his administration to fully fund high-priority areas for scientic research into climate change over the next ve years and help developing nations to match the U.S. commitment. According to CNN News, former president Clinton signed the Kyoto Protocol but also said he would not send it to the Senate for ratication until several changes were made. One country that did not seem to be up in arms over the U.S. stand was Australia. e Australian prime minister John Howard supported Bush’s plan. According to Howard, “We are a net exporter of energy, and unless you have the developing countries involved we would be hurt. Our position . . . is much closer to that of the United States than the attitude of the European countries. I do think what the president indicates in his speech will lead to an alternative to simply saying “no” to the Kyoto Protocol, and I welcome that.” Pia Ahrenkilde-Hansen, the EU spokeswoman, remarked, “It is positive that the U.S. administration is realizing that there needs to be something done about climate change but we feel that the multilateral approach is the best way to face up to this tremendous challenge.” Many environmental groups opposed Bush’s voluntary plan, how- ever, saying that it ultimately would do nothing to curb U.S. emis- sions. According to a December 4, 2003, New York Times report, “e 1997 Protocol had many aws, but it represented the only interna- tional response to the global warming problem thus far devised, and at the very least it provides a plausible framework for collective inter- national action.” e international community was not alone in disagreeing with the Bush administration’s stand. Several U.S. cities rose to the occasion 19 The Beginning of Global Warming Management and dozens of mayors—representing more than 25 million Ameri- cans—pledged that their cities would cut greenhouse gases by 7 per- cent by 2010. Greg Nickles, Seattle’s mayor who spearheaded the event, says, “is campaign has clearly touched a nerve with the American people. e climate aects Democrats and Republicans alike. Here in Seattle, we rely on the snow for our drinking water and hydroelectricity but it is disappearing.” Nickles also warned that each city had a tough target of cutting emissions by 7 percent, and each mayor would choose a dierent way to accomplish that goal. He also said, “ere are changes we will have to make but there are many opportunities to create employment and make for a better life. In any event, the costs of doing nothing are greater than doing something.” Some of the specic proposals for cities include using hybrid cars, investing in renewable energy, improving public transporta- tion, planting trees, promoting carpooling, and providing cycling lanes. The g8 e G8, or Group of Eight, is a forum that was created by France in 1975 for the governments of eight nations of the Northern Hemisphere. e participating members are Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Rus- sia, the United Kingdom, and the United States. e European Union (EU) is also represented but it cannot host or chair. e table on page 20 lists the current members. Each year the G8 holds a conference in the country of whoever is currently serving as president. e number of participating coun- tries have evolved over the years since 1975, and just recently it has been proposed that the group be expanded to include ve developing countries, referred to as the Outreach Five (O5), which include Brazil, China, India, Mexico, and South Africa. ese countries have attended as guests in the past. It has been proposed that the name be changed to the G8+5. e G8 is an informal forum that began in 1973 aer the oil crisis and global recession that followed it. e object of the gathering is to discuss issues of mutual or global concern, such as energy, the environ- ment, terrorism, economics, health, trade, etc. At the Heiligendamm 20 CLIMATE MANAGEMENT Summit held in 2007, the G8 addressed the issue of energy eciency and global warming. e group agreed, along with the International Energy Agency (IEA), that the best way to promote energy eciency was on an interna- tional basis. As a result, on June 8, 2008, the G8, and China, India, South Korea, and the European Community jointly established the Interna- tional Partnership for Energy Eciency Cooperation. e G8 nance ministers agreed to the “G8 Action Plan for Climate Change to Enhance the Engagement of Private and Public Financial Institutions.” ey also initiated the climate investment funds (CIFs) by the World Bank, which is put into place to help existing eorts until a new framework under the UNFCCC is implemented aer 2012, when Kyoto expires. The inTergovernmenTaL PaneL on CLimaTe Change In order to make meaningful management decisions to minimize the negative impacts of climate change, it is necessary to have an orga- nized body of professionals working together toward the common goal of understanding the science of climate change. is way they The G8 Leaders COUNTRY WORLD LEADER Canada Prime Minister Stephen Harper France President Nicolas Sarkozy Germany Chancellor Angela Merkel Italy Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi Japan Prime Minister Taro Aso Russia President Dimitry Medvedev United Kingdom Prime Minister Gordon Brown United States President Barack Obama 21 The Beginning of Global Warming Management Dr. Rajendra Pachauri has been the chair of the IPCC since 2002. He is an environ- mentalist and also the director general of the Energy and Resources Institute in New Delhi, involved in sustainable development. On December 10, 2007, Dr. Pachauri accepted the Nobel Peace Prize on behalf of the IPCC, along with corecipient Al Gore. (IISD/Earth Negotia- tions Bulletin) can advise political leaders who can then develop regulations that enforce positive human response to that change. e IPCC is a scien- tic organization established by UNEP and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in 1988. e IPCC is comprised of the world’s top scientists in all relevant elds who review and analyze scientic studies of climate change and provide authoritative assessments of the state of knowledge regarding global warming. e IPCC was estab- lished to provide decision-makers and others interested in climate change with an objective source of information. e IPCC itself does not conduct any research. Its key role is “to assess on a comprehen- sive, objective, open, and transparent basis the latest scientic, tech- nical, and socio-economic literature produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change, its observed and projected impacts and options for adaptation and miti- gation.” e reports they produce are of a high scientic and technical standard, meant to reect a range of views and expertise and encom- pass a wide geographical area. e IPCC produces reports at regular intervals. To date there have been four major assessments: 1990, 1995, 2001, and 2007. e IPCC is comprised of about 2,500 of the world’s top climate scientists and is 22 Climate management chaired by Dr. Rajendra Pachauri of India. Once the reports are released, they become standard works of reference that are widely used by poli- cymakers, experts, and others. For example, in 1990, the ndings of the rst First Assessment Report (FAR) played a critical role in establishing the UNFCCC. e Second Assessment Report (SAR), released in 1995, provided key input for the negotiations of the Kyoto Protocol in 1997. e ird Assessment Report (TAR) in 2001 was used in the develop- ment of the UNFCCC. Currently, the IPCC has three working groups and has undertaken the National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programme (IPCC-NGGIP) in collaboration with the OECD and the IEA. Each working group has its own agenda and is assisted by a technical support unit and the working group or task force bureau. Working Group I (WGI) is titled e Physical Science Basis. Working Group II (WGII) is called Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Working Group III (WGIII) is called Mit- igation of Climate Change. e main objective of the greenhouse gas inventories programme is to develop and rene a methodology for the calculation and reporting of national GHG emissions and removals. In addition, there is a provi- sion written into the agreement where further task groups and steering groups may be established for a duration of time to consider specic topics or concerns. Working Group I WGI assessed the physical scientic aspects of the climate system and climate change. eir latest report, published on February 2, 2007, was released in Paris. is report covers information on changes in green- house gases and aerosols in the atmosphere and the role they play in determining the behavior of the climate. e report provides specic details in the changes of air, land, and ocean temperatures, glaciers, rainfall, and ice sheets. It takes into account enormous amounts of satellite-derived data for broad global coverage. In addition to the current status of the atmosphere, the report also focuses on the past and includes a paleoclimatic review of the Earth’s glacial and interglacial periods, the evidence le behind, and how the past can oer clues about the future. is working group also looks at [...]... reduced 20 percent from 20 05 levels by 20 20 (Obama’s called for a 14-percent reduction over the same time period) Both proposals would reduce GHGs by about 80 percent by 20 50 The Waxman-Markey bill, H.R 24 54: American Clean Energy and Security Act of 20 09, would require the nation to produce one-fourth of its electricity from renewable energy sources, such as solar, wind, or geothermal by 20 25 It also... Report The Physical Science Basis This report contains the strongest language yet of any of the IPCC’s reports, and it found that it is very likely (> 90 percent probability) that xvi +26 4_GW-ClimManage.indd 25 3/ 12/ 10 12: 47:48 PM Climate management emissions of heat-trapping gases from human activities have caused “most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid -2 0 th.. .the Beginning of global Warming management The IPCC Working Group I speaking about their focus on the Fourth Assessment Report, The Physical Science Basis, at the 10th session in Paris, France, on January 29 –February 1, 20 07 (IISD/Earth Negotiations Bulletin) how climate change interacts and affects geochemistry and the biosphere Complex climate models are evaluated, and the driving factors—or climate. .. greenhouse gas emissions from the atmosphere Their fourth report was released The IPCC Working Group III focusing on their interest in the Fourth Assessment Report, Mitigation of Climate Change at the ninth session in Bangkok, Thailand, on April 30–May 4, 20 07 (IISD/Earth Negotiations Bulletin) The Beginning of Global Warming Management 25 May 4, 20 07, in Bangkok The report analyzes the world’s GHG emission... in low-latitude regions (near the equator), particularly in the seasonally dry Tropics, as even small temperature increases decrease crop yields in these areas The IPCC projections show drought-prone areas of Africa to be particularly vulnerable to food shortages due to a reduc- the Beginning of global Warming management • • • • • • • • tion in the land area suitable for agriculture; some rain-fed crop... absorbing more than 80 percent of the heat added to the climate, caus- the Beginning of global Warming management • • • • • • • ing ocean water to expand and contributing to rising sea levels If no action is taken to reduce emissions, the IPCC concludes that there will be twice as much warming over the next two decades than if the GHGs had been stabilized at their 20 00 levels The full range of projected... around the southern tip of Africa, and rises to the surface in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, as well as areas near Antarctica It then heads north toward the equator again, where it picks up heat, and repeats the cycle The problem with adding large amounts of freshwater to the ocean through the melting of ice caps and glaciers is that it decreases the salinity of the ocean water and slows the overturning... cause other sudden climate changes around the world latitudes By slowing the process, it slows down the entire conveyor belt, which means that warmth from the equator will not be brought up into the Northern Hemisphere The Gulf Stream, which is the current that transports a significant amount of heat northward from the Earth’s equatorial region toward western Europe helping to warm its climate, is part. .. educating the public about the issue and why it has to be dealt with now His film and book, An Inconvenient Truth, have made the public well aware of the issue So much so, in fact, that survey polls show that the American population is becoming increasingly alarmed In 20 07, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Al Gore shared the Nobel Peace Prize for their efforts to bring the issue to the. .. projected temperature increase has now been revised to 2 11.5°F (1.1–6.4°C) by the end of the century because higher temperatures reduce the amount of CO2 that the land and ocean can hold, keeping more stored in the atmosphere Warming is expected to be greatest over land and at most high northern latitudes and least over the Southern Ocean and parts of the North Atlantic Ocean High latitude precipitation . interna- tional response to climate change to be agreed on at the climate confer- ence in Copenhagen in December 20 09. 14 CLIMATE MANAGEMENT THE U.S. RESPONSE AND INTERNATIONAL REACTIONS While the. respectively—together these nations ac- counted for 27 .6 percent of the world total in 20 08. 15 The Beginning of Global Warming Management it, citing potential damage to the U.S. economy if the nation. Barack Obama 21 The Beginning of Global Warming Management Dr. Rajendra Pachauri has been the chair of the IPCC since 20 02. He is an environ- mentalist and also the director general of the Energy
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