 Statistics Statistics is simply a mathematical science that gathers information about a population so that population may be described usefully. Statistics are often used to draw conclusions and make decisions based on that infor- mation. So, what’s the problem? Statistics are complicated and their problems can be numerous. In general, though, problems with sta- tistics are similar to those of other types of numerical data; namely, they can be gathered, analyzed, and/or interpreted incorrectly, or mishandled by someone with a bias. Let’s look at two common problems with sta- tistics. The first question to ask is, is the statistic mean- ingful? Many parents worry, for instance, when they hear that the average baby walks at 13 months. They conclude that there must be something wrong with their 18-month-old who is still crawling. But, it has been proven that babies who walk later have no devel- opmental differences at age two from their early-walk- ing peers. In other words, the statistic is not meaningful; there is nothing wrong with an 18-month-old who is still crawling. Another example: when standardized test scores were analyzed across the country, it was concluded that students from wealthy communities were smarter than students in poorer communities because their scores were higher. Is this a meaningful, accurate conclusion? Probably not. It does not take into account the many other variables that can account for lower test scores, such as inferior preparation, fatigue, and even break- fast on the day of testing. Practice Evidence shows that most car accidents occur on days with clear weather than on days when it is snowing. Can you conclude that it is safer to drive when it is snow- ing? Why, or why not? __________________________________________ __________________________________________ __________________________________________ __________________________________________ __________________________________________ Answer No, the conclusion that it is safer to drive in the snow is wrong. There are other factors influencing this sta- tistic, such as there are more clear days than snowy days, and more people are probably on the road in clear weather than snowy weather. A second question to ask: is the statistic given in such a way that it misrepresents the data collected? Does it make the data sound better or worse than it is? Suppose a survey was done to see how many children live below the poverty line. We hear it reported on the news: “80% of all children live above the poverty line.” What about the 20% who live below it? The declaration of the 80% sounds good, while shifting the focus away from the millions of children who are poor. What about: “Women earn an average of 70 cents for every dollar earned by a man.” This sounds unfair, but it does not tell you which jobs are being compared, how long men and women have worked at those jobs, and whether men work longer hours because they do not take as much responsibility for child care. – MISUSING INFORMATION—THE NUMBERS GAME– 83 Practice Researchers found that 98% of juvenile offenders com- mitting serious crimes watch violent TV shows on a regular basis. If you are an advocate for a reduction in TV violence, how would you use this statistic? What if you were an advocate for freedom of expression on tel- evision? __________________________________________ __________________________________________ __________________________________________ __________________________________________ __________________________________________ Answer As an advocate for a reduction in TV violence, you would probably say, “watching violence on TV turns our young people into criminals.” If you were an advo- cate for freedom of expression on television, you might find out the real number of young people in the 2%. Let’s say it is 3 million. You might conclude that “mil- lions of children watch violent programs regularly, and they don’t end up as criminals.” Another common way in which statistics are manipulated is by leaving out key information. For instance, a company claims it is edging out its com- petitor with higher sales. They are correct in stating that they have had a 50% increase in sales, compared with only a 25% increase for their competitors. Is their claim valid? You can’t know unless you have more informa- tion. What if the competitor sold two thousand bicy- cles last year, and 2,400 this year; the other company sold 40 bicycles last year, and 60 this year. Edging out the competition? Hardly. When you hear a statistic, either in an advertise- ment, a political speech, a newspaper article, or other source, remember that it is not necessarily true. Then, ask yourself three questions: Is the statistic meaning- ful? Does it deliberately misrepresent the data collected? Does it give you all the information you need to eval- uate it? Thinking critically about statistics will help you to avoid making the wrong conclusions, or relying on information that is faulty or simply untrue. Practice What is wrong with the following statement? Russians are better off than ever; their average worker’s annual salary is now $20,000. Answer Compared with what? This statistic is meaningless as it is stated because it leaves out too much information. There is a big difference between the salaries of the wealthy business class and the workers. Inflation is also a factor. If $20,000 is worth less now than it was five years ago, the average worker could be doing worse than ever.  In Short It is just as easy to deceive with numbers as it is with words. Surveys, studies, and statistics are conducted and interpreted by researchers who might have a bias, or simply lack the skills necessary to do their jobs prop- erly. Therefore, it is important to evaluate numbers before accepting them as truth. Ask questions about how the information was gathered, what its margin of error is, and how meaningful it is. Does the conclusion make sense, or does it seem to distort the findings? Thinking critically about the many numbers you encounter will help you to rely only on information that is objective and accurate. – MISUSING INFORMATION—THE NUMBERS GAME– 84 – MISUSING INFORMATION—THE NUMBERS GAME– 85 Skill Building Until Next Time ■ Watch a news broadcast and listen for the results of a survey or poll. Does the newscaster tell the margin of error? Why is it important to know this number? ■ Look for a print advertisement that includes a statistic. Why was it included? Does it seem accu- rate and objective? How else could the advertiser have made the point without using numbers? . to review, the eight steps are: 1. Recognize the problem. 2. Define the problem. 3. Practice focused observation to learn more about the problem. 4. Brainstorm possible solutions. 5. Choose a solution(s). line.” What about the 20% who live below it? The declaration of the 80% sounds good, while shifting the focus away from the millions of children who are poor. What about: “Women earn an average of 70